论经济安全运行与政策取向:基于欧债危机的视角

欧债危机表面上是人口老龄化和高福利政策导致的政府债务负担问题,实质上是美欧两大经济体核心利益冲突的必然结果,是部分欧洲国家在经济增长方式选择、经济可持续发展与社会福利政策的关系协调方面产生了严重的问题。虽然次贷危机是欧债危机的主要外因,但区域经济发展不平衡、产业结构不合理、欧元区统一的货币政策与分散的财政政策的矛盾、老龄化趋势导致高福利政策难以持续、缺乏有效的监管是导致和加剧欧债危机的内在因素。欧债危机对我国加强经济安全运行有诸多启示:要审慎、协调使用宏观调控政策,合理把握经济刺激政策的力度;应加强地方政府债务的管理,通过多种手段防范地方政府债务风险;要通过发展实体经济,夯实经济增长的基础;通过产业结构调整,实现经济增长方式转变;富民是保持社会稳定的基础,加快福利制度建设和增加社会福利支出要把握合理的尺度,应充分借助市场和社会力量构建多重社会保障体系。     

论福利国家及其危机的实质

福利和福利国家概念在当代社会和政治思潮中居于重要地位.福利源于人的需要,对人的需要满足的要求决定了福利国家及其社会保障体系构建的重要意义.福利国家是在基本需求方面为其成员的幸福承担法定责任的制度表征.福利国家的实质是对人的需要的满足,其理论论争的本质内涵也是围绕需要满足.福利国家危机的表现,是其制度不能满足某些基本需要,福利国家危机的实质问题体现在其对人们需要满足的危机和福利国家自身的合法性危机上.福利国家的国家干预本来是反危机的一种原则,但在实践中却长期取代了自由资本主义固有的合法性基础,最终导致福利国家在政治、经济和文化三大系统内的合理性与合法性危机.     

后危机时代我国经济形势分析与政策取向

金融危机对世界经济发展的后遗症主要有:世界经济受到冲击;一些国家财政出现巨额赤字;一些国家经济损失惨重;世界经济市场遭到破坏;一些国家存在"二次探底"的可能:各国经济复苏缓慢.后危机对中国经济形势的影响有两种分析和判断:一种主张经济增长速度下滑.原因是:从投资看,中国有投资减速的趋势;从消费看,2010年大幅度增长的可能性不大:从出口看,后危机时代世界经济的恢复对我国经济增长的拉动不大.另一种主张经济稳定发展.原因是:在制度方面,我国集中式的政治体制在应对危机的过程中是行之有效的;在出口方面,我国强劲增长,进口增速放缓,顺差大幅回升;从消费看,城镇居民家庭月消费增加;在外贸方面,随着世界经济复苏,2010年二季度对外贸易进一步回暖.各国经济在2009年深度衰退后呈现出复苏态势.基于此,我国应采取的政策取向为:调整结构;服务业应成为国民经济的主导产业;扩大消费需求,拉动经济增长;调整财政和货币政策.     

流动性风险、银行危机与内生经济增长——对东亚金融危机成因的反思

本文将Diamond and Dybvig(1983)的银行挤兑模型嵌入到内生经济增长模型中,从理性投资者的投资决策行为出发构造了新的银行危机模型。模型表明,经济基本面的健康程度决定危机是否会发生,而外部性冲击决定危机什么时候发生。在此基础上,本文进一步分析了金融开放和政府担保对经济增长和银行系统稳定性的影响。结果表明:适度国外间接投资规模条件下,金融开放能够促进经济增长和提高银行系统稳定性;政府担保不会明显影响经济增长,但能够增强银行系统的稳定性。根据本文的模型,东亚金融危机的根本原因并不是金融开放和政府担保,而是国外间接投资规模过大、投资收益下降以及过度政府干预和无效率政府监管。最后,我们还分析了模型对中国银行改革的意义。     

企业危机的预防和处理

企业预防危机的措施有:强化危机意识,培育预见能力;建立预防危机的信息监测系统,成立危机预防小组;制定危机应变计划,进行危机模拟训练;强化公关手段,加强内部沟通和企业文化建设。有效处理危机,企业要有一个强有力的指挥核心,齐心协力,在对危机进行深入调查基础上,针对不同公众,采取相应对策,并做好善后工作。     

创建危机经济学

创建危机经济学不仅非常必要,而且非常可行.我们可以从对资本主义经济危机史及对经济危机思想史的回顾和分析中,看出它的必要性和可行性,我们还可以从对当前的经济危机分析研究中,看到它的现实需要的紧迫性.这次危机有七大特点:危机形态上的虚拟性;危机空间上的跨界性;危机领域上的延伸性;危机影响上的广泛性;危机萧条上的长期性;危机原因上的多因素;危机救助上的联合式.创建危机经济学应该在研究和建设中,逐渐设计和形成它自己的研究对象、研究方法、研究内容及框架体系,还需要有一定的理论思考、理论升华和理论创新,这需要许多人的长期努力.     

我国城市公共危机预警与管理控制研究

有效的城市公共危机预警与管理控制体系不仅可以预防公共危机所造成的各种经济和社会损失,同时也是我国各级政府提高执政能力、构建社会主义和谐社会的科学有效途径。因此,应该树立科学的城市公共危机预警理念,构建有效的城市公共危机预警指标体系,制定合理的城市公共危机预警管理控制方法与措施,将城市公共危机管理纳入到一个有序、规范、条理的轨道之中。     

黑金危机

作为山西首富,邢利斌和李兆会的人生随着＂黑金＂价格波动而跌宕起伏。三晋大地,短短数日,两个首富先后爆发危机。一个是山西最大的＂煤老板＂邢利斌,百亿身家的＂柳林首富＂,曾以＂7000万嫁女＂闻名天下,如今旗下的联盛能源集团负债近300亿,在债务重组的关键时刻,在太原机场被警方带走。另一个是山西最大的＂钢老板＂李兆会,身家曾高达125亿,但日前旗下的海鑫钢铁集团爆发危机,被曝负债30亿。     

从次贷危机到全球金融危机：警示与反思

由美国次贷危机所引发的金融危机正以猛烈之势席卷全球。根据金融危机的相关理论,从本质上说,美国金融危机是由金融系统的内在不稳定性以及信用和监管缺失所导致的一场信用危机、系统性金融危机,并表现出其“传染”的整体性和快速性以及政府处理危机的主导性和一致性特征。危机使我们警醒,也让我们反思。应充分认清这场危机的本质和危害,并采取有效防范措施保持国内金融市场和房地产市场的稳定。     

金本位制与美元本位制的比较研究——基于大危机和次贷危机视角

本文从世界货币本位、平衡机制、内外均衡和国际协调四个方面对国际货币体系中的金本位制和美元本位制展开比较研究,归纳了在不同国际货币体系下世界经济的特点和风险,并在此基础上探讨了金本位制对大危机,美元本位制对次贷危机的重要影响.     

Channels of monetary policy transmission in Vietnam

Since the economic reforms launched in 1986, the Vietnamese economy has registered impressive economic growth. While foreign investment is providing much needed capital, through the conduct of monetary policy, the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV), which is an integral part of the government of Vietnam, is also playing an important role in nurturing the economic growth. The aim of this paper is to evaluate the success of the SBV policies. Monetary policy actions affect all sectors of real economies with a significant lag. Without a good understanding of the transmission mechanism, monetary policy actions may not achieve the desired outcomes. Using quarterly data from 1995 to 2010, this paper focuses on monetary policy transmission mechanisms in Vietnam. Specifically, we consider the dynamic response of the Vietnamese economy to interest rate, exchange rate and foreign shocks. The estimated results based on structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology suggest that monetary shocks tend to have a strong influence on Vietnam’s output. We find that Vietnam’s monetary policy is relatively more susceptible to foreign shocks.     

Impact of microcredit on rural household welfare and economic growth in Vietnam

Since its birth in 1970s, microcredit has been growing rapidly with the aim to reduce poverty and to promote economic growth. Using the large panel data of the Vietnam Access to Resources Household Surveys, the objectives are twofold: (i) to evaluate the micro-impact of microcredit on rural household economy, particularly on output value and net income of rural households, using Matched Difference-in-Difference method; and (ii) to evaluate its macro-impact on economic growth, especially the aggregate effect of production increase and income growth, using Input–Output analysis. The results at micro level find that microcredit benefits self-employment rather than other economic activities of households. The salient results from the macro-economic analysis reveal that, not as expected, the effect of microcredit on output increase is not so large. The findings suggest that microcredit is an effective development strategy at both micro and macro levels, thus the Vietnamese government should enact the relevant policies to enhance the effectiveness and outreach of microcredit.     

Growth,inequality and poverty in Vietnam: How did trade liberalisation help the poor, 2002–2008

Using the Vietnamese Living Standards Surveys for 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2008, we explore how provinces with differential access to trade liberalisation reforms differ in their pro-poor growth performance in Vietnam. Using both non-parametric and parametric estimation, we find strong, robust evidence of pro-poor growth in provinces with greater exposure to trade liberalisation. Using censored and uncensored regressions, the study also shows that increased wages play a critical role in this outcome. Our analysis enables identification of the core mechanisms through which the poor materialise their gains from trade-driven growth in a transition economy.     

中国对越南经济发展的作用

历史上中国与越南具有类似的历史渊源,在经济与社会方面保持着较为密切的联系。中国经济对越南经济的影响举足轻重,尤其是中国的改革开放对越南经济产生深远的影响。随着中国—东盟自由贸易区建设进程的加快,双边贸易、中国对越南投资等方面得以不断深化发展,使两国的经济联系更加紧密。     

Adjustment costs in labour markets and the distributional effects of trade liberalization: Analytics and calculations for Vietnam

This paper explores the implications of different labour market adjustment formulations for the analysis of trade liberalization across different sectors and households in the Vietnamese economy using computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. The model is calibrated to a model admissible Vietnamese data set for 1997.We use five different adjustment cost treatments in analyzing the effects of trade liberalization in Vietnam. We compare simulation results from each and show how different treatments can significantly affect the distributional impacts of policy reforms, such as the trade liberalization. First, labour is treated as fully mobile across all sectors in the economy. Second, the sectors of economy are broken down into the two blocks of agricultural and industrial-service sectors and labour markets are treated as segmented by sector block. No mobility of labour between blocks is allowed while labour within each sector block remains fully mobile. The third is the same as the second, but movement within each agricultural and industrial-service sector block involves transactions costs. In the fourth, mobility of workers from the agricultural to industrial-service sectors and vice versa is possible with transactions costs. Finally, we calibrate the model with unemployment but no adjustment costs for labour reallocation to explore how model results differ in terms of adjustments in the labour market and welfare effects.Our results indicate significant differences in the impacts from trade liberalization across these cases. The redistributional impact of trade liberalization is sharper against poor rural households with segmented labour markets and with transactions costs, while aggregate efficiency gains are similar to no adjustment cost analyses. The conclusion is the choice of model structure for labour markets is crucially important for the perceived distributional impacts of trade liberalization.     

Social Protection in Vietnam and Obstacles to Progressivity

The present paper analyzes the incidence and progressivity of Vietnamese state income transfers using survey data from the Vietnamese Household Living Standards Survey 2004. Data quality and sample selection issues are highlighted, especially in the coverage of rural-urban migrants. Simple income-based profiles of incidence are matched to several influences that confound and complicate the measurement of progressivity. The issue of the informal economy is highlighted through analysis of both the extent of private inter-household transfers and remittances and their relationship with state transfers, and in the informal charges that accompany uptake of state services and other petty corruption. Second, the issue of user-charges for health and education services is considered, as a considerable portion of state transfers are related to the take up of schooling and health care. Third, the issue of behavioral effects is also considered, concentrating on private inter-household transfers. The paper concludes by drawing together the evidence and the obstacles to measurement and progressivity to argue a range of data collection, methodological and policy recommendations.     

Optimistic but Confused: Perceptions about the Mission and Core Values of Social Work in Vietnam by Vietnamese Policy‐makers,Social Work Faculty and Practitioners

In 2010, the Vietnamese government officially recognized social work as a profession. This study explores whether key stakeholders in the development of social work in Vietnam (i.e. policy‐makers, pioneering educators, and practitioners) had reached a shared understanding about the mission and core values of Vietnamese social work by the end of 2015. An exploratory survey was conducted with 65 participants representing key stakeholders of social work in Vietnam. Participants had a shared but rather generic, at times vague, and overly optimistic view of the mission of Vietnamese social work as a “helping profession” that would be able to solve every social problem and present in all areas. There was a strong, unanimous desire for Vietnamese social work to focus on human dignity, social justice, and individuals’ rights, mixed with the preservation of Vietnam's collective, community‐based culture under the central guiding role of the state.     

Productivity growth,external shocks,and capital inflows in Chile: A general equilibrium analysis

This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model to analyze the growth path of the Chilean economy during 1977–1981. During that period a comprehensive package of reforms liberalized international trade and removed restrictive labor legislation. As a result of the reforms, there were large changes in relative prices and in the structure of production and demand, and the economy enjoyed unprecedented growth with declining inflation. But large macroeconomic imbalance become evident toward the end of the period and in 1982 Chile experienced an abrupt and severe recession. Taking the real exchange rate as an exogenous policy variable, and using the observed levels of employment growth and foreign capital inflows, this paper compares model-generated growth paths with those of the economy. First, the benchmark simulation path is used to estimate the magnitude and pattern of growth and productivity change during the 1971–1981 period. Next, counter-factual simulations are used to assess how Chile's economic performance would have differed if (a) external events had been different; and (b) foreign capital inflows had been different. The analysis suggests that the macroeconomic imbalances that led to the crisis in 1982 were exacerbated by the large capital inflows and real exchange rate appreciation that resulted from the use of the exchange rate as a stabilization device.     

Different Effects of Acculturative Stress and Family Life Stress on Depressive Symptoms among Married Vietnamese Immigrant Women in South Korea

Married Vietnamese immigrant women often face multiple stressors related to sociocultural adaptation and new family lives in South Korea. The purpose of this paper is to identify the different influences of acculturative and family life stress on depressive symptoms among Vietnamese immigrant wives. Data were collected through a questionnaire survey of 301 married Vietnamese immigrant women residing in South Korea. The study utilized linear regression analysis to test the relationships between the variables. The findings show that both acculturative and family life stress are positively related to depressive symptoms. Family life stress influences depressive symptoms to a greater extent than acculturative stress. The study emphasizes the significance of family‐related stress on mental health among married Vietnamese immigrant women in Korea and provides some implications for research, clinical practice, and policy.     

浅析中国道教对越南宗教信仰的影响

作为与中国山水相连的邻邦,越南受到了汉文化的巨大影响。中国的本土宗教道教对越南的宗教形成发展及民族文化有着深刻的影响,并且这种影响延续到了今天。了解中国道教对越南宗教信仰的影响,是人们了解和研究越南文化一个不可或缺的重要内容,这将有助于进一步了解越南。