Monitoring Optimism in South Africa

An article with exactly this same title was published in Social Indicators Research (41:279–304, 1997). The purpose of the current article is to update the findings discussed in that first article. Therefore the abstract published previously is still relevant: The last few decades have been the most crucial and eventful ones in South Africa’s history. During this time, the empirical research and knowledge provided by opinion polls yielded much-needed insight into the grass roots of a society in transition, providing an instrument with which to measure the political climate, to observe trends and developments and to give input into the decision-making process of companies and political parties. Although the process of change and political transition still remains difficult to properly define, this article will provide some insight into the attitudes, perceptions and values of the South African public by giving attention to trends that have transpired over the years. Special attention is devoted to perceptions on pertinent issues such as the mood in the country, optimism, economic well-being, social harmony and trust – all essential elements in an emerging democracy. Again, extensive use is made of data and findings from Markinor’s bi-annual Socio-Political Trends surveys and the World Values Studies.     

Resilient or Resigned? Criminal Victimisation and Quality of Life in South Africa

A victimisation study conducted among 3300 householders in South Africa’s Nelson Mandela Metropolitan Municipality (NMMM) in the Eastern Cape Province aimed to inform a crime prevention strategy for the metropolitan area. The study found that the variables ‘fear of crime’ – measured in terms of perceived likelihood of victimisation – and concern about ‘personal safety’ had greater negative influence on life satisfaction than actual victimisation. Individual crimes against the person had greater negative influence on subjective wellbeing and feelings of personal safety than property and other household crimes. Individuals who perceived themselves to be at risk of becoming a victim of crime also perceived greater risk of other misfortunes. However, materially better-off victims reported higher levels of life satisfaction than non-victims in spite of their crime experience. South Africa has high crime rates by international standards and fighting crime presents the country with one of its major challenges in the second decade of democracy. Nevertheless, findings suggest that the negative impact of crime issues on achieving the good life are overshadowed by issues of racial inequalities and poverty. The conclusion is drawn that residents of Nelson Mandela Metropole are hardy when it comes to living with crime but nonetheless suffer stress in doing so. From a methodological perspective, the discussion considers whether subjective crime issues such as fear of crime and personal safety should be regarded as personal or neighbourhood quality-of-life issues. Based on survey findings, the conclusion is drawn that concern for personal safety is both. However, a crime-as-neighbourhood-issue is more likely to attract remedial action on the part␣of␣local authorities to better protect citizens and allay their fears of crime.     

Monitoring Optimism in South Africa

The last two decades have been the most crucial and eventful ones in South Africa's history. During this time, the empirical research and knowledge provided by opinion polls yielded much-needed insight into the grass roots of a society in transition, providing an instrument with which to measure the political climate, to observe trends and developments, and to give input into the decision-making process of companies and political parties. Although the process of change and political transition still remains difficult to define properly, this article will provide some insight into the attitudes, perceptions and values of the South African public, by giving attention to trends that have transpired over the years. Special attention is devoted to perceptions on pertinent issues such as the mood in the country, optimism, economic well-being, social harmony and trust – all essential elements in an emerging democracy. Extensive use is made of data and findings of Markinor's bi-annual Socio-Political Trends surveys, the World Values Studies and the annual Gallup End-of-Year Poll.     

Quality of life in South Africa – The First Ten Years of Democracy

South Africa celebrated ten years of democracy in 2004. This special issue of Social Indicators Research (SIR) reviews developments that have impacted on the quality of life of ordinary South Africans during the transition period. The issue updates an earlier volume of SIR (Volume 41) published in 1997 and as a stand-alone volume. The earlier volume was initiated following SIR editor Alex Michalos’ first visit to South Africa. This update on quality of life in South Africa follows on his return visit to the country in 2004 to see firsthand the changes that had occured in the meantime. This introductory article outlines major achievements of and setbacks for the new democracy and the challenges facing it in future. It provides the backround for the evaluations of a range of quality of life domains and issues including poverty and inequality, crime, the HIV/AIDS epidemic, migration and housing, religiosity, reconciliation, and optimism for the future which are covered in the eleven articles that follow. The introduction divides the articles under the headings of challenges, achievements, monitoring quality of life, and social capital for the future. The overview article concludes that improvements in quality of life have been uneven but goodwill and a positive outlook bode well for South African quality of life in future.     

India’s Social Development in a Decade of Reforms: 1990–91/1999–2000

The economic reforms initiated in India in 1991 have brought about visible upliftment of economic conditions of the country. This paper examines if the economic process is associated with an enhancement of India’s social development in equal measure in the reform decade of nineties. Ray (1989) considered thirteen social indicators of India and constructed the country’s social development index (SDI) as a certain weighted average of the selected indicators, for the years between 1950–51 and 1975–76. The present work broadly follows Ray (1989) in tracking the social development in the decade of economic reforms from 1990–91 to 1999–2000. The movement of SDI in nineties has been compared with the movements of India’s per capita income and plan expenditure on the social sector. The results show that though there has been growth in the social sector, it is not by far quite encouraging and perhaps more needs to be done in the social sector. The views expressed in the article are those of the author and not of the institution he serves.     

Surviving the Transition: Trends and Perceptions of Crime in South Africa

Crime and violence have dominated South Africa's transformation over the past two decades. High crime rates cause widespread feelings of insecurity and fear which undermine popular confidence in the democratisation process. Considering both trends and public perceptions, this paper explores changing crime levels over the past decade, elaborating on the problems associated with crime statistics in South Africa, and the salience of the transition for current crime levels. Data is drawn from official police statistics and from victimisation and other surveys. Crime has been increasing gradually in South Africa since 1980. It is, however, since 1990 and not more recently as is popularly believed, that levels have risen sharply. An examination of the statistics shows that despite general increases, not all crimes have been committed with equal frequency and not all areas of the country are similarly affected. These trends are a product of the political transition and are associated with the effects of apartheid and political violence, the breakdown in the criminal justice system and more recently, the growth in organised crime. High crime levels are taking their toll on South Africans. Surveys show that crime rather than socio-economic issues now dominates people's concerns, and that fear of crime is increasing. Currently, fewer people feel safe and believe the government has the situation under control than in previous years. Faced with widespread unemployment on the one hand, and the prospects of development on the other, levels of property crimes will probably continue to increase. While violent crime levels should decline over the medium term, improved relations with the police and a culture of reporting crimes like rape and assault may result in more crime being recorded.     

Life is Getting Better: Societal Evolution and Fit with Human Nature

Human society has changed much over the last centuries and this process of ‘modernization’ has profoundly affected the lives of individuals; currently we live quite different lives from those forefathers lived only five generations ago. There is difference of opinion as to whether we live better now than before and consequently there is also disagreement as to whether we should continue modernizing or rather try to slow the process down. Quality-of-life in a society can be measured by how long and happy its inhabitants live. Using these indicators I assess whether societal modernization has made life better or worse. Firstly I examine findings of present day survey research. I start with a cross-sectional analysis of 143 nations in the years 2000–2008 and find that people live longer and happier in today’s most modern societies. Secondly I examine trends in modern nations over the last decade and find that happiness and longevity have increased in most cases. Thirdly I consider the long-term and review findings from historical anthropology, which show that we lived better in the early hunter-gatherer society than in the later agrarian society. Together these data suggest that societal evolution has worked out differently for the quality of human life, first negatively, in the change from a hunter-gatherer existence to agriculture, and next positively, in the more recent transformation from an agrarian to an industrial society. We live now longer and happier than ever before.     

Environmentally Responsible Happy Nation Index: Refinements and 2015 Rankings

Fifty years have elapsed since Cantril (1965) published his work on The Pattern of Human Concerns. His line of inquiry has stood the test of time. In late 2012, the nationally representative South African Social Attitudes Survey replicated Cantril’s 1960s questions and methodology to elicit South Africans’ hopes and aspirations and worries and fears for self and country and their ratings of where self and country stood—past, present and will stand in future. Although Cantril’s ‘ladder-of life’ scale is still regularly used as a measure of subjective well-being, to our knowledge his full line of preliminary questioning has not been fielded again to date. Our study found that South African aspirations for self were mainly material ones for a decent standard of living and the means to achieve this goal. Hopes for the nation concentrated on economic and political progress to consolidate South Africa’s democracy. A large number of personal and national hopes were mirrored in fears that these aspirations might not be met. Cantril’s method also allowed us to review the main concerns and ratings across the diverse groups of citizens that make up the ‘rainbow nation’. There was a substantial degree of consensus on top hopes and fears but levels of standing on the Cantril ladder of life were still graded according to apartheidera inequalities with black South Africans scoring lower than other race groups. Nonetheless, the majority of South Africans rated their present life better than 5 years ago and projected life to get better in future. Such optimism may place considerable pressure on the state to deliver on personal and societal hopes as the country enters its third decade of democracy.     

Determinants of Life Satisfaction Among Immigrants from Western Countries and from the FSU in Israel

This study examines the integration of immigrants via their satisfaction with life in the new country. While most studies on immigrant integration have focused on objective integration parameters such as education, occupation and salary (e.g., Borjas in Friends or strangers: the impact of immigrants on the US economy. Basic Books, New York, 1990), subjective parameters have traditionally received less attention. However, in recent years it has become increasingly clear that subjective perceptions carry considerable weight in the social-integration process of immigrants (McMichael and Manderson in Human Organ 63(1):88–99, 2004; Massey and Redstone in Soc Sci Q 87(5):954–971, 2006). The study group consists of Jewish immigrants who arrived in Israel during the past two decades from two different regions of origin: Western countries, and the Former Soviet Union (FSU). All of these immigrants are generally highly educated and skilled, but they came to Israel from different societies and contrasting motives. The objective of this study is to learn about the integration of these immigrants via their satisfaction with life in Israel and to understand the factors that explain it, taking into account the differences between the immigrant groups. The findings, based on the 2007 Ruppin representative survey data (The data for this study was obtained with the support of the Israeli Ministry of Immigrant Absorption.), point to significant differences between the two immigrant groups under discussion. Western immigrants are more satisfied with their lives in Israel than FSU immigrants and have higher scores in most of the independent variables tested. The multivariate analyses for predicting an immigrant’s life satisfaction reveal that those reporting the greatest satisfaction are women, religious, with a high standard of living, with no academic education, and stronger Israeli identity (personal and as perceived by others). In addition, different variables play a role in predicting the life satisfaction for each immigrant group. This knowledge may be of service to Israeli policymakers dealing with the immigration and integration of highly skilled immigrants in Israeli society.     

Population Change and Changing Educational Attainment of Ethnic Groups in the United States, 1980–2000

This study assesses the effect of population change on decade changes in the educational attainments of country of origin populations in the United States. Our data are derived from decennial censuses, NLMS, the World Bank, and INS. We find that changes in the share of country of origin populations with one or more years of post-secondary schooling are associated with selected components of population change during the 1980–1990 and 1990–2000 decades. The specific components include survivors during the decade, in-migration, and emigration of the foreign-born. Likewise, intra-generational mobility is found to be an important determinant of changes in educational attainment. The discussion addresses limitations of the data and suggests directions for future research as well as policy implications.     

South Africa's 'Rainbow People', National Pride and Happiness

Since the first free elections were held in April 1994, South Africans are popularly known as the 'rainbow people'. The paper inquires whether South Africans who experienced pride in their nation in the first years of democracy also perceived a greater sense of subjective well-being. It is proposed that national pride in post-apartheid South Africa might be fused with or work through self-esteem to lift levels of happiness. The paper traces the history of the new integrating civil religion of the rainbow people and the acceptance of the rainbow as a political symbol of unity among the diverse people of South Africa immediately after the 1994 elections and two years later. The proposed link between national pride and happiness was explored with data from two independent national surveys, the 1995 South African World Values Survey conducted by Markinor and a June 1996 MarkData syndicated omnibus survey. The study found that the appeal of the rainbow as political symbol was inclusive of all groups in society and that feelings of national pride and support for the rainbow ideal were positively associated with subjective well-being. As indicated by intensity and frequency measures, the majority of South Africans were proud of their country and could name a national achievement that inspired pride. Better-off South Africans tended to be happier and more satisfied with life but less proud, while the poor were less happy but fiercely proud of their country. Results suggest that belief in South Africa's 'rainbow nation' ideal may have assisted in boosting happiness during the transition to a stable democracy, thereby preventing alienation among the losers under the new political dispensation. Supporters of the ideal of the rainbow nation were more optimistic than others about the future of their country.     

Satisfied and dissatisfied South Africans: results from the General Household Survey in international comparison

Who are the satisfied South Africans 10 years into democracy? How do material factors contribute to their life satisfaction? These are the questions addressed in this paper. Earlier South African research has consistently found a close positive relationship between life satisfaction and material standards of living in the apartheid and post-apartheid era. Recently, a new source of information has become available to shed further light on the association between material and subjective well-being. In 2002, Statistics South Africa, the country’s official source of statistical information, agreed to ask South Africans participating in the General Household Survey whether they were satisfied or dissatisfied with life. The 2002 General Household Survey (n26’000) used a measure developed for the Euromodule that allows for international comparison. The wide-ranging information contained in South Africa’s official?household survey offers a unique opportunity to explore what makes for satisfied and dissatisfied South Africans in relation to their material living standards. Results indicate that the improved living standards afforded to many black South Africans under democracy are associated with increases in life satisfaction. Furthermore, habituation does not appear to have diluted the positive relationship between living standards and well-being. However, political factors continue to play an important role in shaping subjective well-being. In conclusion, it is argued that material gains might also have restored the pride and dignity denied to black South Africans in the past.     

The kindness of strangers revisited: a comparison of 24 US cities

Three field studies compared helping behavior across a sample of 24 small, medium and large cities across the United States. The relationship of helping to statistics reflecting the demographic, social, and economic characteristics of these communities was then examined. The strongest predictors of city differences in helping were population size, population density, economic purchasing power and, to a somewhat lesser extent, walking speed. Changes in several community variables over the past decade were also associated with helping: population size, economic well-being as measured by both purchasing power and poverty rates, and crime rates. These data were compared to similar data collected 13–15 years ago.     

The Shape of South African Society and its Challenges

South Africa's negotiated settlement and its transition to democracy reads like a modern fairy tale. A brief review of South Africa's social indicators serves to temper some of optimism about the country's future. The indicators reflect the society's quality of life which has been shaped by its turbulent history. Political “caste formation”, changing political alliances, the reforms intended to forestall the demise of apartheid, and the race for global competitiveness have left indelible marks on the society's social indicators. A comparison of living conditions in South Africa with those of roughly comparable economies indicates that the country lags behind in securing overall and widespread socio-economic upgrading of the population at large. A review of a cross-section of South African indicators and their trends over time shows that South Africa is still a very deeply divided society with a very large backlog in socio-economic development. There is evidence of breakdown in the society's social cohesion. Popular expectations of future quality of life indicate that the euphoria following on the first democratic elections has been replaced by a sense of realism among all sectors of the population. It is concluded that quality of life as reflected in South Africa's social indicators may get worse before it improves. The challenge will be to avoid new forms of economic “apartheid” which would depress the quality of life of marginal sectors of the population at the expense of the economically privileged.     

Quality of Life from the Voting Booth: The Effect of Crime Rates and Income on Recent U.S. Presidential Elections

Quality of Life (QOL) is often measured with surveys of citizen’s satisfaction. In contrast, the current research uses already-existing voting data to infer citizens’ perceptions of QOL. Under this model, citizens decide how much their QOL has improved (or declined) since the last election, and then vote to reward (or punish) the incumbent party accordingly. Analysis of the popular vote for the incumbent party then allows inference on how citizens judge their QOL and how they weight the various domains. Previous research has concluded that voters reward an incumbent who improves the economic domain prior to election. I test whether voters also reward declining crime rates, and estimate how citizens weight the relative importance of each in determining QOL. I analyze the vote shares by state from U.S. presidential elections from 1972 to 1996. Results show that changes in crime rates do influence vote share, consistent with the responsibility hypothesis, but to a smaller degree than the economic domain does. The method described provides convergent evidence that citizens weight domains differentially, and can provide the weights for a national QOL index.     

More Participation,Happier Society? A Comparative Study of Civil Society and the Quality of Life

A ‘good society’ has recently been portrayed as one in which citizens engage in voluntary associations to foster democratic processes. Arguably, such a good society is considered as one where people are content with their own lives as well as public life. We consider whether participation in civil society leads to more satisfied individuals on the one hand and a better evaluation of society at a country level on the other. With data from the first round of the European Social Survey, we illustrate that participation in voluntary associations not only depends on individual characteristics, but that there is a clear country-level effect on civil society. This can be explained with measures of quality of society after socio-demographic determinants have been controlled for. Nonetheless, it remains difficult to say what comes first: a ‘good society’ or a thriving civil society.

Measuring and understanding the well-being of South Africans: Everyday quality of life in South Africa

South Africa has a Gini co-efficient of 62, one of the world’s highest (Finmark: Project FinScope 2004 and 2005, FinMark Trust, Johannesburg). Hence, measures of wealth are ubiquitous social indicators in South Africa. However, a growing emphasis in government towards measurable service delivery targets and remedial action to redress the inequalities of our past makes the reliable measurement of people’s quality of life in greater depth in quantitative terms an imperative.We have developed a simple framework to measure people’s quality of life in key domains that extend beyond that simply of wealth, using composite indices to allow progress to be tracked and to make valid comparisons across our diverse population. Termed the Everyday Quality of Life Index (EQLi), it comprises a suite of measures encompassing socio-economic status (with special reference to poverty), urbanisation, health (nutrition, exercise and fitness), stress/pressure, quality of the environment, satisfaction of human needs, connectivity, optimism, subjective well-being (happiness, after Diener and Lucas: 2000, in M. Lewis, J.M. Haviland (eds.), Handbook of Emotions. (2nd ed) (Guilford, New York)), and the overall measure of well-being, the EQLi itself.The initial framework was developed from a structured questionnaire administered to a probability sample of 2000 South African adults in 2002. From this, a 52-item shortlist was derived to create the series of measures. This has been tested and refined in three subsequent annual studies, each of 3500 people across urban and rural South Africa. In 2004, items involving work as well as determining the balance of skills and challenges at work using the concept of “flow” (Csikszentmihalyi: 1990, Flow: The Psychology of Optimal Experience (Harper and Row, New York)) were added.This paper outlines the rationale behind the selection and development of these measures, describes the EQL of South Africans using these and other key measures and concludes with implications for policy-makers and service providers in South Africa. Some marketing implications are also given: there is a growing emphasis worldwide on corporate social investment initiatives and, particularly in South Africa, on community upliftment and development – poverty alleviation and improving the lives of the disadvantaged (“people” rather than “consumers”). Further, people’s well-being affects how they react to marketing activities.     

Perceptions of Life Quality among the Korean Mass Public: Unraveling their Dynamics and Standards

South Korea is widely known as an Asian model of economic development and democratization. Yet until now, research has not shown whether the country’s successful transition to democracy and market capitalism has enabled ordinary citizens to experience a life of happiness and satisfaction in their private and public lives. To address this question, this study analyzes a 2002 Euromodule survey of the Korean electorate designed to appraise the quality of life as a whole and in its various important domains. Results of the analysis reveal that a substantial minority of South Koreans still leads undesirable lives full of unhappiness and dissatisfaction. Furthermore, among the socioeconomically deprived, more people report deteriorations rather than improvements in their living conditions over the past five years. On the basis of these findings, we conclude that the surging forces of democratization and marketization can hinder ordinary people from experiencing a better quality of life by motivating them to compare themselves with other people in better situations to a greater extent than they did under past circumstances.     

Immigration,investment, and real wages

When a country is the recipient of large-scale, politically motivated immigration – as has been the case for Israel in recent years – the initial impact is to reduce real wages. Over the longer term, however, the endogenous response of investment, together with increasing returns, may well actually increase real earnings. If immigration itself is not wholly exogenous, but respond to real wages, they may be multiple equilibria, that is, optimism or pessimism about the success of the economy at absorbing immigrants may constitute a self-fulfilling prophecy. Received August 22, 1994 / Accepted August 23, 1995     

Does Municipal Socioeconomic Development Affect Public Perceptions of Crime? A Multilevel Logistic Regression Analysis

Chile is considered as one of the safest countries in Latin America, with a below-the-average world crime rate. However, during the last few decades, the country has experienced a deterioration in public perceptions of safety. This paper investigates public perceptions of crime in the 52 municipalities of the metropolitan area of Santiago, by employing an index of socioeconomic development for each municipality. Multilevel logistic regression analysis is used in order to assess the impact of individual and municipal-level variables on perceptions of crime in these municipalities. The results show that women exhibit higher perceptions of crime, while people living in rural areas, inactive people, and people with higher education and income have generally lower perceptions. Multidimensional poverty is positively associated with high perceptions of crime, while municipal spending on health and/or education does not show a relationship with perceptions of crime. Regarding socioeconomic development level of municipalities, the results show that people living in municipalities of high development show the lowest perceptions of crime, despite the fact that these municipalities do actually exhibit the highest crime rates, a fact confirming the ‘perception gap’ and the ‘neighbourhood favouritism’ theories. The results and conclusions of this study can be used not only by local policy-makers but also by officials in other cities that—like Santiago—are characterised by high urban segregation.