进口投入品与中国企业的就业变动

基于中国微观工业企业数据,本文统计分析了中国企业参与进口贸易的基本情况,并实证分析了进口投入品对中国企业就业变动的影响。研究发现：与非贸易企业、纯出口企业和纯进口企业相比,有出口行为的进口企业的就业规模最大、就业增长最快、就业创造最多、就业破坏最少,就业增长稳定性也最好;进口强度、进口产品数、来自低收入国家进口、资本品进口、异质产品进口对企业就业有显著正向影响;相对于一般贸易方式进口,加工贸易方式进口对企业就业增长效果更为显著;进口投入品仅对有出口行为的进口企业就业增长影响显著,而对纯进口企业没有显著影响。今后,我国扩大进口贸易的相关政策应该进一步的战略性细化,针对不同类型商品进口、从不同国家和地区的进口制定有差异的政策,并高度重视有出口行为的进口企业在就业方面的贡献。     

高学历劳动力就业困境及其原因探析

本文构建了一个基于有限理性企业试错性筛选的动态微观劳动力市场模型,引入政府就业目标与企业最优化利润路径之间的矛盾,考察它们对高学历劳动力就业的影响。本文模型认为为了达到实现政府就业目标的要求,企业在招聘劳动力时只能偏离最优化路径而选择进行“试错性筛选”,从而降低其对高学历劳动力的招聘力度。在此基础上,利用中国工业企业数据,基于自然工具变量法进行的实证研究发现,无论是政府的先验线性目标（与经济增长率成比例的就业目标）还是后验非线性目标（当地国有企业就业规模）,都抑制了大专及以上学历劳动力的就业规模,表明政府制定就业目标将会造成高学历劳动力就业萎缩,需要采用更为合理的方式在不损害就业学历公平的前提下,保障劳动力市场效率。     

全球价值链视角下中美贸易双向溢出效应研究

本文在现有的三区域产出溢出反馈模型基础上构建出衡量中美经济增加值和就业联系的测度方式,全面透视了中美两国的增加值和就业依存关系。结果发现：①通过全球价值链分工网络,中国最终需求对美国经济的贡献率不断上升,美国最终需求对中国经济的贡献率则在近期存在下降趋势。同时,中国的最终需求为美国创造了越来越多的就业岗位,而美国最终需求对中国的就业影响在近期处于下降阶段。②就双边贸易而言,中美贸易对两国的增加值和就业贡献均呈现出上升趋势。具体到产业渠道上,中国对美国的出口主要影响中国的计算机、电子和光学产品,纺织服装以及皮革制品,批发贸易（汽车和摩托车除外）等产业的增加值和就业。中国从美国的进口主要影响美国的法律、会计、总部及管理咨询,计算机、电子和光学产品,作物和畜牧业,行政和辅助服务活动等产业的增加值和就业。     

中国老年人低就业率成因:与俄罗斯的跨国比较

在老龄化加速和劳动年龄人口下降的背景下,开发我国老年劳动力资源具有重要意义。本文基于1988-2013年住户调查数据,通过与俄罗斯较长时期的跨国比较,发现中国老年人就业率偏低且持续下降,并进一步利用Oaxaca方法分解了就业率下降的贡献来源,由此解释了中国城镇老年人就业率较低的原因。研究发现,文化和制度因素的影响并不显著,而劳动力市场禀赋及其分化才是我国老年人就业率较低且持续下降的主要原因。相对于俄罗斯,中国城镇居民财富积累更快,收入结构更加多元化,再加上年轻外来劳动力涌入形成的挤出效应,带来中国老年人就业意愿和就业竞争力的双重下降,由此就使得中国老年人就业率逐渐降低。因此要打破劳动力市场分割,让老年劳动力顺利实现职业转换和工作岗位转变;改善小微企业营商环境,扩大老年人非正规就业机会;增加老年人职业培训以提高就业竞争力,鼓励获得较高教育技能的老年人工作更长的年限,并成为劳动力市场的重要补充。     

FDI对中国劳动就业的影响效应实证研究——基于面板VAR模型的动态分析

近年来,随着国内的外商投资企业经营逐步向资本和技术密集型转化,FDI的就业创造效应受到质疑,学者们的研究结论也不尽一致.本文选取了1998-2010年中国引进外商投资的面板数据,运用面板VAR方法就FDI对中国劳动就业的影响效应进行了研究.得出的结论是:FDI在短期内对中国的劳动就业具有负向直接效应,但是能够通过拉动国内投资、促进经济增长,进而间接地推动内资企业就业的增加.该结论为中国政府通过继续扩大引进外资来改善中国劳动就业的政策提供了理论支持.     

Looking Forward into the 1980's: A Personal View of the Problems and Prospects for the Statistical Profession

The paper begins with a discussion of the state of research and development in Australia, and the effect of technological change, and then provides an assessment of consequent Government policy on the funding of research and development and of tertiary educational institutions. This is then related to likely consequences for the statistical profession. Various issues facing the Statistical Society and statisticians in general are discussed. These include public responsibility in the face of scepticism resulting from widespread statistical misrepresentation, employment opportunities for graduates, the relationships between theoreticians and practitioners, and the state of the statistical literature.     

Recent Monetary Policy and the Divisia Monetary Aggregates

This article explains the currently available capability to use formal statistical index number theory to measure the economy's money supply accurately. The new procedure is illustrated by exploring the tightness of money during the recent three-year period of “monetarist” Federal Reserve policy. When measured by a properly constructed statistical index number, the rate of growth of the money supply is found to have been lower and more volatile than when measured by the official simple sum monetary aggregates. As a result, targeting the simple sum aggregates may have induced a tighter and more volatile policy than was intended.     

税收激励与企业劳动雇佣——来自薪酬抵税政策的“准自然实验”

在经济下行压力不断加大的形势下,如何“稳就业”成为了各界关注的热点问题。本文以2008 年推行的薪酬抵税政策作为“准自然实验”捕捉企业税负的外生变化,并以2000-2018 年A 股上市公司数据作为研究样本,利用双重差分法考察了税收激励与企业雇佣行为之间的因果关系。实证结果表明:薪酬抵税政策带来了额外的税收优惠,进而促进了企业的雇佣需求,在有效排除共同趋势、预期效应、政策叠加效应以及反向因果问题后,这一结论依然稳健;异质性检验中发现,薪酬抵税政策对企业雇佣的激励效应在民营企业,成本转嫁能力较弱、劳动密集度较高以及处于市场化程度较高区域的企业中表现更加明显,这意味着企业对劳动力成本的变化越敏感,这一政策的作用效果就越好;薪酬抵税政策显著地提升了企业的经营绩效。本文的研究有助于深入理解税收影响企业行为的微观机理,对于政府利用税收政策扩大就业具有重要启示。     

Risk preference and employment contract type

Summary.  We explore the possibility that a systematic relationship exists between employment within a particular type of contract and risk preference. We exploit a set of proxies for risk preference, whereby some of the proxies capture risk loving behaviour (expenditure on gambling, smoking and alcohol) whereas others capture risk averse behaviour (expenditure on life and contents insurance, and unearned income). The empirical analysis, based on pooled cross-section data from the UK Family Expenditure Survey, 1997–2000, provides evidence of a systematic relationship between employment contract type and risk preference, with, for example, self-employed workers being more or less likely to engage in the consumption of 'risky' or financial security products respectively. The results are based on the ordered generalized extreme value model, a relatively infrequently used discrete choice model, which allows for ordering and correlation in the alternatives observed.     

从当前就业形势看中国通货膨胀政策的选择

近年来，中国的就业形势日趋严峻，采取有效措施缓解就业压力成为全社会关注的问题；同时，自从2006年底，物价悄然上涨，出现了通货膨胀的苗头。以动态最优化的方法解出通货膨胀和失业率的关系，再用计算机模拟了不同参数值时通货膨胀政策对降低周期性失业率的效果并不明显，得出结论：应该更加关注降低自然失业率，这是通货膨胀政策所解决不了的。     

Increasing social mobility: an effective policy to reduce health inequalities

Summary.  Data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study are used to investigate the effect of mobility between occupationally defined social classes between 1991 and 2001 on health inequality in men and women. Logistic regression models related movement into more or less advantaged employment conditions to limiting long-term illness in 2001, controlling for social class in 1991 and 2001. When class in 1991 was controlled ('class of origin') those who moved into more advantaged social classes were least likely and those moving into less advantaged classes most likely to report a limiting illness. However, when social class in 2001 ('class of destination') was controlled, those moving from less to more advantaged positions were most likely to report limiting illness. The same patterns were seen in women. This means that social mobility did not increase the extent of health inequality over the time period that was observed, but rather served to constrain or dilute it. The results are interpreted in terms of an accumulation model of health inequality, and the policy implications are discussed.     

经济政策不确定性的溢出效应及形成机理研究

借鉴Diebold和Yilmaz（2012）广义预测误差方差分解思想，利用14个主要经济体2003年1月至2017年5月经济政策不确定性指数数据，测算了其溢出效应,并对形成机理进行了初步探讨。测算结果表明：发达国家的经济政策不确定性溢出效应整体水平要高于发展中国家，该溢出效应对突发大事较为敏感，而对于可预期世界大事则较为迟钝。在控制了个体和时间效应后，进行面板固定效应的FGLS估计，实证结果发现，经济政策不确定性及其波动对溢出效应的偏效应均为正，且波动值的估计系数远高于水平值，经济政策不确定性主要体现为波动溢出效应。由分位数回归估计结果可知，随着分位数的增加，对外贸易、经济政策不确定性水平值、波动值及交互项估计系数的绝对值逐渐变大，对经济政策不确定性溢出效应起主要作用的因素随之变化。为了更好抵抗来自其他国家经济政策不确定性的污染，各国应找到推动经济增长的内生动力，减少国际依赖。     

城镇就业风险、环境、条件与外出务工农村劳动力的逆向回流

基于685份外出务工农村劳动力样本的问卷调查数据，建立有序Logistic回归模型，分析外出务工农村劳动力个人及家庭特征、就业能力、就业风险、就业环境及就业条件等对其逆向回流行为的影响。结果显示：外出务工农村劳动力年龄越大，身体素质和文化水平越低，务工单位拖欠工资与签订合同情况越差，城镇政策体制环境、经济环境和文化环境越差，理想工作的择业门槛越高，外出务工劳动力越倾向于彻底逆向回流。因此，为实现农村剩余劳动力的彻底转移，应积极发展城镇第二、第三产业，改善城镇就业环境，降低农村劳动力在城镇务工的就业风险，同时有效提高农村劳动力的健康水平和文化素质。     

中国进口对工业就业和工资的影响

进口对国内就业和工资的影响历来都存在着争议。利用1996～2000年中国34个工业行业有关数据，以面板数据模型实证检验进口对不同工业行业就业、工资的影响，结果显示：进口对重工业22个行业的就业并不显著，但是对轻工业12个行业的就业有比较显著的影响。也就是说进口对轻工业的就业影响是正相关的；进口对轻工业行业的工资水平没有影响，而对重工业的工资水平影响是正向的。     

Producing Monthly Estimates of Unemployment and Employment According to the International Labour Office Definition

Monthly unemployment statistics are available in Britain from a monthly count of the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits. There has been considerable debate on the appropriateness of this measure. Unemployment and employment statistics are available quarterly from the Labour Force Survey (LFS), using International Labour Office (ILO) definitions. In this paper various options for producing monthly unemployment estimates according to the ILO definition are examined. Methods considered are a monthly LFS, calculating rolling averages from the quarterly LFS, and methods which combine LFS and claimant count data. It is proposed that a monthly LFS of 60 000 households be introduced which can produce monthly estimates of total unemployment and more detailed estimates quarterly. Such a survey would also fill an important gap by providing monthly employment statistics which are needed to provide a complete picture of the labour market.     

技术创新与非技术创新对就业的影响研究

当前中国经济进入新常态,面临转型升级与扩大就业的双重压力：一方面,要促进由中国制造到中国创造的转变,实现转型升级;另一方面,要促进就业增长,保障和改善民生。但创新对就业的影响存在不确定性,不同类型创新与劳动就业存在复杂的交互影响。本文构建创新与就业关联机制的Jordi模型,对不同类型创新活动的就业影响进行细化实证,研究发现：中国制造业就业增长缓慢,技术创新与非技术创新的短板与不协同问题比较突出,成为制约就业增长的瓶颈,促进两者协同发展,不仅有助于促进就业增长,也有助于提升就业质量。     

A new spatial shift-share decomposition for the regional growth analysis: a local study of the employment based on Italian Business Statistical Register

This paper presents a new shift-share model to decompose the employment growth rate of a territorial unit by taking into consideration the association between industry mix and firm legal status effects measured in its neighborhood. We explicitly consider this kind of association to go beyond the problem of asymmetry found in a previous work. The empirical application refers to the data collected in the Italian Business Statistical Register and, in particular, regional employment figures in Friuli Venezia Giulia (NUTS2 level), for 219 territorial units (LAU2 level) and 12 Local Labour Systems (LLS), for the years 2001 and 2004.     

中国经济正在趋向服务化吗？

就中国总体及多数省区市而言,经济服务化趋势以名义增加值、就业和消费支出衡量显著提高,以实际增加值衡量并未明显变化,以服务进出口比重衡量则显示出“逆服务化”倾向。服务相对价格指数上升既可解释服务业实际增加值比重上升乏力,同时也是导致居民服务支出比重上升的首要因素;服务业劳动生产率增长相对滞后是服务业就业份额增长较快的主因;中国在服务消费方面已显露出“成本病”迹象。各省区市服务业实际增加值、就业和消费支出比重等经济服务化数据均支持绝对收敛假说,但服务业实际增加值比重的收敛速度大于其就业,城市居民服务消费支出的收敛速度大于农村地区,各地工业化收敛速度大于其服务化收敛速度。     

利用菲德模型测量教育投资的外溢效应

一、教育投资经济效益的理论探讨在现代社会中 ,教育的作用和影响是多方面的 ,教育既具有经济职能又具有社会职能。教育投资的经济效益是教育发挥其经济职能的表现。教育投资的经济效益 (简称教育的经济效益 ,是指通过教育再生产出一定数量和质量的人才 ,进而提高社会劳动生产率 ,促进国民经济的增长 ,在其增长总额中抵偿用于教育和培养的全部经费之后的余额。对于教育投资的经济效益的计量 ,由于教育的经济效益的复杂性及理论研究的欠缺 ,至今没有一个理想的统一标准。目前 ,具有代表性的几种计量方法主要有 :(1) )舒尔茨的余数分析法。舒…     

Simultaneous confidence bands for growth incidence curves in weighted sup-norm metrics

ABSTRACT

The so-called growth incidence curve (GIC) is a popular way to evaluate the distributional pattern of economic growth and pro-poorness of growth in development economics. The log-transformation of the the GIC is related to the sum of empirical quantile processes which allows for constructions of simultaneous confidence bands for the GIC. However, standard constructions of these bands tend to be too wide at the extreme points 0 and 1 because the estimator of the quantile function can be very volatile at the extreme points. In order to construct simultaneous confidence bands which are narrower at the ends, we consider the convergence of quantile processes with weight functions. In particular, we investigate the asymptotic convergence under specific weighted sup-norm metrics and compare different kinds of qualified weight functions. This implies simultaneous confidence bands that are narrower at the boundaries 0 and 1. We show in simulations that these bands have a more regular shape. Finally, we evaluate real data from Uganda with the improved confidence bands.