Scanner Data and the Treatment of Quality Change in Nonrevisable Price Indexes

The recently developed rolling year GEKS procedure makes maximum use of all matches in the data to construct nonrevisable price indexes that are approximately free from chain drift. A potential weakness is that unmatched items are ignored. In this article we use imputation Törnqvist price indexes as inputs into the rolling year GEKS procedure. These indexes account for quality changes by imputing the “missing prices” associated with new and disappearing items. Three imputation methods are discussed. The first method makes explicit imputations using a hedonic regression model which is estimated for each time period. The other two methods make implicit imputations; they are based on time dummy hedonic and time-product dummy regression models and are estimated on bilateral pooled data. We present empirical evidence for New Zealand from scanner data on eight consumer electronics products and find that accounting for quality change can make a substantial difference.     

Using Scanner Data to Construct CP1 Basic Component Indexes

This article considers how scanner data could be used in constructing component indexes for the U.S. Consumer Price Index. One product, coffee, in two cities generates over 1.8 million observations in just over two years, so coping with the sheer volume of data would be a challenge. Some other findings are (1) some aggregation of prices into “unit-value” averages is necessary for practical reasons and to avoid bias, (2) chained Laspeyres indexes are very high, (3) “modified” Laspeyres indexes have some upward bias but much less than a true Laspeyres index, (4) Fisher ideal or modified Edgeworth indexes perform well, and (5) aggregating prices across outlets to form city-level unit values reduces the discrepancies between index-number formulas.     

Gasoline Cost and Hedonic Price Indexes of U.S. Used Cars for 1970–1983 A Note

Hedonic price indexes are estimated for U.S. used passenger cars for 1970–1983. A few notions of indexes that differ in the treatments of the expected present value of gasoline cost for driving a car over its remaining life are considered. Their relationships are obtained theoretically and examined empirically. Our indexes also are compared with the Consumer Price Index.     

基于质量调整的Hedonic价格指数研究

摘　　要:传统的价格指数的编制过程中由于没有考虑到产品质量变化的因素,使得编制的价格指数与实际价格指数之间出现了偏差,Hedonic价格指数法是基于质量调整的价格指数,在严格的经济理论的支撑下,Hedonic回归法在编制价格指数时考虑了产品质量变化的因素,使得价格指数更能真实的反映实际价格的变动情况,其客观性和精确性远远胜于传统的价格指数。本文将国外有关Hedonic价格指数的经济理论基础、具体构建方法及应用等加以整合,从而进行系统地介绍。     

Diffusion Indexes With Sparse Loadings

The use of large-dimensional factor models in forecasting has received much attention in the literature with the consensus being that improvements on forecasts can be achieved when comparing with standard models. However, recent contributions in the literature have demonstrated that care needs to be taken when choosing which variables to include in the model. A number of different approaches to determining these variables have been put forward. These are, however, often based on ad hoc procedures or abandon the underlying theoretical factor model. In this article, we will take a different approach to the problem by using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) as a variable selection method to choose between the possible variables and thus obtain sparse loadings from which factors or diffusion indexes can be formed. This allows us to build a more parsimonious factor model that is better suited for forecasting compared to the traditional principal components (PC) approach. We provide an asymptotic analysis of the estimator and illustrate its merits empirically in a forecasting experiment based on U.S. macroeconomic data. Overall we find that compared to PC we obtain improvements in forecasting accuracy and thus find it to be an important alternative to PC. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

Book Reviews

The diagnostic tools examined in this article are applicable to regressions estimated with panel data or cross-sectional data drawn from a population with grouped structure. The diagnostic tools considered include (a) tests for the existence of group effects under both fixed and random effects models, (b) checks for outlying groups, and (c) specification tests for comparing the fixed and random effects models. A group-specific counterpart to the studentized residual is introduced. The methods are illustrated using a hedonic housing price regression.     

改进住宅销售价格指数编制质量的一种思路探讨

 在介绍链式更新特征价格法编制房地产价格指数基本原理的基础上,基于大连市商品住宅交易数据全库,结合大连市房地产市场的运行特点,综合考虑各住宅特征信息的可获得性,从建筑特征、邻里特征和区位特征三个方面,确定了22项影响住宅价格的特征因素以及大连市“标准商品住宅”的标准,然后以2006年为基准建模期,采用两期链式更新法构建了大连市商品住宅对数线性特征价格模型,进而计算得到以2006年1月为基期的商品住宅月度特征价格定基指数序列,最后总结了链式更新特征价格法的技术特征以及对于改进我国房地产价格指数编制质量的现实意义,同时提出编制城市房地产特征价格指数所需要的制度规范与保障。     

Hedonic price indices for the Paris housing market

Summary: In this paper, we calculate a transaction–based price index for apartments in Paris (France). The heterogeneous character of real estate is taken into account using an hedonic model. The functional form is specified using a general Box–Cox function. The data basis covers 84 686 transactions of the housing market in 1990:01–1999:12, which is one of the largest samples ever used in comparable studies. Low correlations of the price index with stock and bond indices (first differences) indicate diversification benefits from the inclusion of real estate in a mixed asset portfolio.*This paper has been developed at the Research Program Real Estate Finance at Goethe-University of Frankfurt/Main (Germany). We gratefully acknowledge iii Internationales Immobilien Institut, IVG Holding AG and Stiftung Rheinische Hypothekenbank for their financial support. For further information, see www.real-estate-finance.de. We thank the participants of the 8th Conference of the European Real Estate Society (ERES), the International Conference of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association (AREUEA), the 10th Global Finance Conference 2003 and the anonymous referees for helpful comments, which improved the paper substantially.     

CPI质量调整及方法改进问题新探

产品质量变化是CPI偏差的主要来源,质量调整问题是CPI统计理论与实践的难点之一。进入大数据时代,CPI质量调整的必要性和可行性都显著上升,常用的一些质量调整方法将更具操作性,而且质量偏差调整的效果也将明显改善。基于大数据的支持,经典的Hedonic方法可采用加权时间―虚拟Hedonic指数和加权时间―产品―虚拟Hedonic指数对质量发生改变的规格品进行价格虚拟,结果更加合理准确,并能保证CPI质量调整的及时性和动态性。目前中国CPI统计尚未引入质量偏差调整,为进一步提高数据质量,应尽快研究和实施CPI质量调整。     

Approximately Median-Unbiased Estimation of Autoregressive Models

A hedonic model of automobile prices that takes gasoline costs into account is developed and used to examine whether gasoline price increases (especially those related to the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks) changed consumer evaluations of the relative qualities of used cars in the U.S. during 1970–1981. We test the null hypothesis that the characteristics' coefficients remained constant over time. It is rejected if gasoline costs are excluded from the model but not if they are included. Alternative approaches are developed to show that the gasoline price increases alone can explain much of the observed changes in the coefficients.     

Inference Tests for Gini-Based Tax Progressivity Indexes

Distribution-free statistical inference procedures for changes in Lorenz- and Gini-based indexes of tax progressivity are developed and applied. Related but distinct tests for the Reynolds–Smolensky index of residual progression and the Kakwani index of liability progression are provided. The inference procedures are illustrated by applying them to Luxembourg Income Study microdata for Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States before and after periods of tax reform. In each country a finding of significant change depends on the choice among progressivity indexes. No single index exhibits a consistent pattern of significant change in all countries across time.     

A Class of Multiplicative Estimators of Laspeyres Price Indexes

Publication of indexes measuring changes in prices of retail, wholesale, export, and import items is an important part of many governmental statistics programs. One form of price index that is often used is the fixed-base Laspeyres, in which a fixed market basket of goods is priced over time. This article introduces a new class of multiplicative estimators of Laspeyres indexes. The optimum within the class is derived for long-term price change and compared with two other members of the class when used for estimating both long-term and short-term change. Theoretical properties are derived under a model in which long-term relative price changes for individual items have common within-stratum means and are correlated over time. Theory for long-term and short-term change estimators is tested in a simulation study in which a large number of stratified probability samples is selected from a population extracted from items priced for the U.S. consumer price index.     

Estimation of Laspeyres Price Indexes Using the Prediction Approach for Finite Population Sampling

Estimators of chain and fixed-base Laspeyres price indexes are studied using the prediction approach to finite population sampling. The estimators include some that are based on those used in several U.S. government index programs and others derived from prediction models. Biases and variances of the estimators are studied for a case in which the reference period index weights are unknown for nonsample items. Under a model for a one-period price change in which items have common within-stratum means, unbiased estimators can be constructed, but under a more general regression model, special sample balance conditions are needed for unbiasedness of those estimators. The theory for the estimators of fixed-base indexes is illustrated in an empirical study using a population of items priced for the U.S. Consumer Price Index.     

Is comprehensive education really free?: a case-study of the effects of secondary school admissions policies on house prices in one local area

Summary. The paper reports on a study that tests the anecdotal hypothesis that parents are willing to pay a premium to secure places for their children in popular and oversubscribed comprehensive schools. Since many local education authorities use admissions policies that are based on catchment areas and places in popular schools are very difficult to obtain from outside these areas—but very easy from within them—parents have an incentive to move house for the sake of their children's education. This would be expected to be reflected in house prices. The study uses a cross-sectional sample based on two popular schools in one local education authority area, Coventry. Differences in quality of housing are dealt with by using the technique of hedonic regression and differences in location by sample selection within a block sample design. The sample was chosen from a limited number of locations spanning different catchment areas to reduce both observable and unobservable variability in nuisance effects while maximizing the variation in catchment areas. The results suggest that there are strong school catchment area effects. For one of the two popular schools we find a 20% premium and for the other a 16% premium on house prices ceteris paribus .     

煤矿工人“统计”的生命价值研究

 目前国内主要使用人力资本理论计算生命价值，反映了其他人事后对死者生命价值的评价。事前预防和控制灾害时，需要考虑死者事前对自己生命价值的评价。本文应用享乐价格理论，根据对四个煤矿调查得到的5875个井下工人样本，从工资决定模型中分解出死亡风险减少与愿意支付工资的定量关系，计算出井下工人事前为了减少一人死亡愿意支付的金额，即“统计”的生命价值。“统计”的生命价值可以作为评价预防和控制灾害技术经济合理性的重要依据。     

沪、深两市长期均衡关系的实证研究——来自综合指数和成分指数的比较分析

文章运用计量经济学中的协整理论,对沪、深两市综合指数间及成分指数间的长期均衡关系进行了比较分析.结果表明上证综指与深证综指之间不存在长期均衡关系,上证成指与深证成指之间存在长期均衡关系.     

Variance Estimation for Price Indexes From a Two-Stage Sample With Rotating Panels

Estimation of price indexes in the United States is generally based on complex rotating panel surveys. The sample for the Consumer Price Index, for example, is selected in three stages—geographic areas, establishments, and individual items—with 20% of the sample being replaced by rotation each year. At each period, a time series of data is available for use in estimation. This article examines how to best combine data for estimation of long-term and short-term changes and how to estimate the variances of the index estimators in the context of two-stage sampling. I extend the class of estimators, introduced by Valliant and Miller, of Laspeyres indexes formed using sample data collected from the current period back to a previous base period. Linearization estimators of variance for indexes of long-term and short-term change are derived. The theory is supported by an empirical simulation study using two-stage sampling of establishments and items from a population derived from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data.     

基于Hedonic模型的学区对房产价值的空间效应研究

探讨了国内外有关学区对于房产价值影响的一些研究方法与结论,并结合特征价格理论,分析了学校对于房产价值的影响机制。选用半对数的Hedonic模型,针对天津市和平区六所重点小学进行实证分析。对小学周围的35个房产区近年的价格数据,以及重点小学排名的变化进行整合分析。主要定量研究了学校对于房产价值的空间效应。研究结果表明,除去房产的其他特征影响,学校的优劣对于周边固定学区的学区房的价值具有明显的控制作用。同时,针对研究的成果进行分析,提出将学校的发展与周边房地产的建设以及翻新相结合,构造基于教育布局的房地产发展新模式。     

On Measuring Segregation in Samples With Small Units

Standard indexes of segregation measure a sample's distance from evenness, which occurs when each sample unit (e.g., an occupation) has the population share of both the minority and majority groups. We show that random allocation of individuals to units generates substantial unevenness among small units and hence that standard segregation indexes reflect random allocation as well as systematic group segregation. We then modify two popular indexes so that they measure deviations from random allocation rather than deviations from evenness. An empirical example suggests that these modified indexes provide improved measures of the systematic component of group segregation.     

Scanner Data Price Indexes: Addressing Some Unresolved Issues

Scanner data are increasingly being used in the calculation of price indexes such as the CPI. The preeminent approach is the RYGEKS method (Ivancic, Diewert and Fox 2011 Ivancic, L., Diewert, W.E., and Fox, K.J. (2011), “Scanner Data, Time Aggregation and the Construction of Price Indexes,” Journal of Econometrics, 161, 24–35.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This uses multilateral methods to construct price parities across a rolling year then links these to construct a nonrevisable index. While this approach performs well there remain some unresolved issues, in particular; the optimal window length and the linking method. In this note, these questions are addressed. A novel linking method is proposed along with the use of weighted GEKS as opposed to a fixed window. These approaches are illustrated empirically on a large scanner dataset and perform well.