四川省人口老龄化系数中长期预测

文章依据生命表理论,利用联合国平均预期寿命增长模型及年龄移算法,预测四川省老年人口峰值期在2040年.根据四川省1978～2010年户籍人口数据,建立预测值满足老年人口峰值期的向量自回归模型.在设定低、中、高三种总和生育率方案下,基于模型预测四川省2011～2050年的户籍总人数、老年人数以及老龄化系数.     

上海人口发展预测研究

本文根据1952-2004年上海市人口统计资料,建立优化GM模型并对未来50年上海市户籍人口进行预测研究.对比其它时间序列外推模型,该模型具有较高的预测精度和良好的可行性.结果表明到2005年底,上海市户籍人口将达到1358.31万;到2010、2020、2030、2040、2050年,上海市户籍人口将分别为1397.33、1478.75、1564.93、1656.21和1752.63万人.     

临终关怀服务在中国的本土化发展——以北京松堂医院为例

一、引言 随着人类平均寿命的提高,人口老龄化成为近年来亟待解决的社会课题。据我国老龄办《中国人口老龄化发展趋势预测研究报告》指出：至2020年,中国老年人口达到2．48亿,老龄化水平将达到17.17％。北京市老年人口在2050年将超过650万,占总人口比重超过30％。在日益显著的人口老龄化趋势下,如何处理养老善终问题渐渐成为人们关注的焦点。     

单独二孩政策对人口数量及老龄化的影响研究

文章研究“单独二孩”政策实施对人口的数量和老龄化的影响.人口政策的改变主要影响总和生育率,通过建立Leslie矩阵人口结构模型,预测我国未来不同年份各年龄人口数量.得出实施“单独二孩”政策后所增加的生育量,2015-2017年平均每年为192万,2018-2040年平均每年为29.2万,2041-2050年平均每年为48.69万人,人口在2022年达到人口峰值13.844亿人.“单独二孩”政策的实施基本不会改变我国老龄化趋势,但却能缓解我国老龄化问题.     

不同计划生育政策下的我国人口预测研究

文章以计划生育政策、经济发展水平、城市化率、出生率为解释变量,建立我国总和生育率的多元回归模型.将该模型导入到人口发展方程中组建联立方程模型,对我国不同人口政策下的人口状况进行了预测.预测结果表明:如果维持现行政策不变,人口峰值会在2021年达到13.7亿人,人口结构呈快速递减型,“少子老龄化”现象严重;如果取消现行政策,人口会迎来报复性增长;如果适度放松政策,人口峰值会在2045年达到15.2亿人,人口结构会向平衡的自然更替水平发展.适度放松政策是比较合理的选择.     

石景山区老年人口现状调查

国际上通常把60岁及以上的人口占总人口比例达到10%,或65岁及以上人口占总人口的比重达到7%作为进入老龄化社会的标准。北京市石景山区已于2000年步入老龄社会。2010年60岁以上人口所占比例已达到13.5%,65岁以上人口所占比例已经达到9.7%,老年人口规模和比率进一步扩大,老龄化程度进一步加深。为了进一步了解老年人口的养老需求和养老服务体系建设情况,2011年8月中下旬,区民政、计生等相关部门进     

人口老龄化对社会经济发展影响的测算

文章分析人口结构对消费、储蓄及劳动力供给的影响机制,预测2011-2050年陕西省人口的老龄化发展趋势.构建陕西省人口老龄化动态CGE模型,通过建模分析人口老龄化对陕西省经济的影响,分析表明人口老龄化因素在未来将严重制约陕西省的经济发展.     

绥化市：人口老龄化现状、存在问题及建议

一、绥化市人口老龄化的发展现状 1、老年人口数量快速增加 随着我市社会经济的不断发展,人民生活水平的日益提高,医疗卫生条件得到改善,人口预期寿命延长,老年人口总量逐年增加。第六次全国人口普查数据显示,我市60岁及以上老年人口有65．8万人,比2000年增加25．5万人,年均增长5％;与此同时,全市总人口达到541．8万人,增加36．2万人,年均增长0．67％。10年间,老年人口平均增长速度是总人口的7．5倍。在过去的10年里,我市总人口的增长速度随着时间的推移明显减慢。而老年人口的增长速度远远超过总人口的增长速度。     

浅析我国养老保险制度存在的问题

据2009年统计,中国60岁以上人口是1.67亿,占全国人口的12.5%.到2020年,60岁以上老年人口将达到2.34亿人,比重从2000年的9.9%增长到16.0%;65岁以上老年人口将达到1.64亿人.比重从2000年的6.7%增长到11.2%.预计21世纪40年代后期形成老龄人口高峰平台,60岁以上老年人口达4.3亿人,比重达30%;65岁以上老年人口达3.2亿多人,比重达22%.届时每3-4人中就有1名老年人.老龄化是世界性问题,但中国的问题尤为突出.     

四川人口“六面观”：折中国成立以来四川人口数量和年龄结构变动情况

2010年四川人口总量较1953年的4434．38万人增加3607．37万人,年平均增加63．29万人,年均增长1．13％;14岁以下少年儿童人口和65岁及以上老年人口占人口总数的比例分别达到16．97％和10．95％,全省已经进入了老龄化社会行列。     

Measurement and analysis of demographic processes: the characteristics of generation

Since it would take too long (100 years) to ascertain all demographic data about a given age group, i.e., all those born in a given year, these data are determined hypothetically by measuring the various characteristics of persons of all ages in a given time period (1-2 years). Also needed is an indicator of the population as a whole; cumulative coefficients are used for this purpose. One of these is the overall coefficient of births, meaning the number of children a women would have over her whole period of fertility if she had the precise number of children at each period in her life as other women of that age. An analogous indicator is used for measuring mortality--the average life expectancy of a person at each stage in his life. The crude coefficient of population reproduction represents the number of girls to which each woman will give birth between the ages of 15 and 50. This has to be corrected by the number of those who will not live to reproductive age. The result is the corrected coefficient of reproduction of the female population. This coefficient is often thought to reflect the population's growth prospects; if less than unity, therefore, the population will not reproduce itself. This is an incorrect interpretation. The impact of immigration and emigration on the population must also be incorportated. In addition to the above hypothetical indicators, we must also develop real population indicators. Techniques must also be employed to evaluate the reliability of these demographic indicators.     

我国男女两性老龄人口死亡率联合建模与预测

老龄人口死亡率建模和预测是长寿风险度量和养老金风险管理的基础。在我国,退休年龄及以上老龄人口死亡数据稀少,随机波动大,构建能够捕捉老龄人口死亡率随性别、年龄和时间变动的动态预测模型成为难题。本文采用Logistic两人口死亡率模型研究我国老龄人口死亡率的建模与预测。首先,运用死亡率数据质量较好的我国台湾地区数据,对模型结构进行选择,并检验模型的稳健性和预测性能。其次,基于我国大陆地区死亡率数据对模型结构进行二次验证和选择,应用所选模型对大 陆地区老龄死亡率进行建模和预测。结果显示,对于我国男女老龄死亡率的拟合和预测,Logistic 两人口模型均优于单人口CBD模型。最后,运用Logistic两人口死亡率模型对死亡率在年龄和时间两个维度上外推和预测,计算出时期和队列老龄人口分年龄的预期余寿,为养老金精算评估和长寿风险分析提供更准确的数据支持。     

University student enrollment forecasts by analysis structural ratios using ARIMA-methods

Summary Forecasts for the number of students in Germany are conducted by the Kultusministerkonferenz. They use a transition model which does not allow for prediction intervals and therefore lack a measure of uncertainty of the forecast. Since the uncertainty is high for such forecasts, this lack is of importance. In this paper, structural ratios, relating the number of university students to the population of the same age, are analyzed and forescasted using ARIMA-models with outliers. Multiplying these ratios with official population forecasts for Germany provides the future number of students, additionally giving prediction intervals. This number will increase from 1.94 million in 2002 to 2.35 million in 2015. The uncertainty of the forecast is high; the forecast interval in 2015 will range between 1.72 and 2.98 million at a 95% confidence level. Supported by the German Research Foundation (DFG). We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some helpful comments.     

家庭人口结构变动对居民消费的影响研究——基于微观家庭面板数据的分析

居民消费与家庭人口结构密切相关,本文基于2018年和2019年国家统计局住户调查数据,构建基于微观家庭的平衡面板数据随机效应和固定效应模型,结合我国人口未来变动趋势,从家庭人口年龄结构、城镇化属性、受教育水平三个维度着手,就家庭人口结构变动对家庭平均消费率和消费收入弹性的影响进行实证分析。结果表明,城镇化率提高、城镇化发展质量提升以及居民受教育水平提高有助于提高家庭平均消费率和消费收入弹性,人口老龄化对家庭平均消费率具有负面效应,更为积极的生育政策能够促进居民消费。本文建议持续推进以人为核心的新型城镇化,坚持教育优先发展,持续优化生育政策,积极应对人口老龄化,挖掘老年人口消费潜力,推动建设高水平国内消费市场。     

Reconstruction of the Infection Curve for SARS Epidemic in Beijing,China Using a Back-Projection Method

The infection curve of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) using the back-projection method was reconstructed for the SARS outbreak period (from March 1, 2003 to June 20, 2003) in Beijing to assess the effectiveness of the intervention measures. There were 2,521 confirmed SARS cases with a population size of 13 million. The SARS outbreak pattern corresponded well with the major events timeline over the SARS outbreak. Despite the limited resources with such a large population size, the intervention measures taken by the Beijing Municipal Government seemed to be effective in containing the SARS epidemic in Beijing.     

Birth forecasting based on birth order probabilities,with application to U.S. data

"A model for birth forecasting based on prediction of the so-called 'birth order probabilities' is constructed. The relation between this model and recent models of fertility prediction is derived. Birth forecasts with approximate probability limits for the U.S. for the period 1983-1997 are generated. The performance of the proposed model in predicting future fertility is tested by fitting time series models to part of the available series (1917-1982) and ultimately generating birth forecasts for the remainder of the period, then comparing these forecasts with the actual data." The accuracy of the fertility forecasts made are compared with those made by other methods.     

人口老龄化与代际财政不平等——基于代际账户核算法的模拟分析

本文采用代际账户核算方法,模拟测算了中国“现存代”和“未来代”的净税收负担值,探讨人口老龄化与代际财政不平等的关系。结果显示：如果保持当前财税制度和社会保障体制不变,未来代的净税收负担要明显高于现存代,中国存在较为严重的代际财政不平等问题,而且未来人口老龄化的进程越快,代际财政不平等程度就越高;但是,老龄化与代际财政不平等的关系还取决于劳动生产率和折现率的变化,折现率越低以及劳动生产率的增长率越高,将会缓解老龄化对代际财政不平等的冲击。据此本文认为,应逐步放开生育政策、延长退休年龄、提高劳动生产率,以改善老龄化背景下的代际财政失衡状况。     

The population of the USSR

Official population data for the USSR for 1986 and 1987 are presented. Tables are included on age and sex distribution; rural and urban population; birth, death, and natural increase rates, 1970-1986; fertility and mortality by sex, 1970-1986; birth order; age-specific birth rates by rural and urban area and Union republic; age-specific death rates, 1970-1986; infant mortality, 1970-1986; life expectancy, 1926-1986; life tables; marriage and age at marriage; and divorce.     

Stochastic population forecasts for the United States: beyond high,medium, and low

"This article presents and implements a new method for making stochastic population forecasts that provide consistent probability intervals. We blend mathematical demography and statistical time series methods to estimate stochastic models of fertility and mortality based on U.S. data back to 1900 and then use the theory of random-matrix products to forecast various demographic measures and their associated probability intervals to the year 2065. Our expected total population sizes agree quite closely with the Census medium projections, and our 95 percent probability intervals are close to the Census high and low scenarios. But Census intervals in 2065 for ages 65+ are nearly three times as broad as ours, and for 85+ are nearly twice as broad. In contrast, our intervals for the total dependency and youth dependency ratios are more than twice as broad as theirs, and our ratio for the elderly dependency ratio is 12 times as great as theirs. These items have major implications for policy, and these contrasting indications of uncertainty clearly show the limitations of the conventional scenario-based methods."     

加入出生年效应的死亡率预测及其在年金系数估计中的应用

人口死亡率下降与寿命的延长已经成为全球性的趋势。运用基于出生年效应的Lee-Carter模型对中国男性人口死亡率数据进行拟合,通过模型残差比较,发现该模型拟合效果更优。根据模型预测,发现中国男性人口的预期寿命随时间逐渐增加,但增加的幅度逐渐减少。将死亡率预测结果用于养老年金系数的估计,发现中国现行城镇职工养老保险个人账户的年金系数被严重低估,这将在未来给基本养老保险个人帐户带来很大的偿付压力。