德国行政记录在经济统计中的应用及启示

目前,世界统计已进入一个非常重要的变革时期,发展方向和发展趋势日益明朗,其中一个突出的表现就是更加注重利用行政部门的行政记录。这里所讲的行政记录是指政府行政部门为实现管理、控制和服务等目的,收集并保存的关于自然人或其他社会实体的相关信息。德国在使用行政记录方面起步较早,环保统计、医疗及社会统计、就业统     

行政记录信息的统计开发与利用

行政记录是指政府行政部门为实现管理、控制和服务等目的,如办证、登记、检查、保险、培训、税收、付费和罚款等,而收集并保存的关于自然人或其他社会实体的相关信息。自然人的行政记录内容主要包括:姓名、性别、民族、出生年月、出生地、身份证号码、职业、常住地址、联系电话等;其他社会实体的行政记录内容主要包括:单位名称、统一代码、经营场所、法定代表人或负责人姓名及其证件号码、注册资金或注册资本、经营范围、经营方式等。行政记录的目的不是统计,但行政记录可以为统计提供信息。一、国外开展行政记录统计开发的基本情况法国是最…     

名录库调查:基于行政记录的统计调查方法

为了破解抽样调查和普查面临的费用不断攀升、无回答率持续升高、调查效率和数据质量越来越低、难以满足社会日益增长的需要等难题,本文提出将基于行政记录的名录库调查作为我国官方统计调查的新思路,介绍了目前世界主要先进国家使用行政记录进行统计调查的基本情况,讨论了建立名录库调查的理论和方法,与传统的普查以及抽样调查方法进行比较,总结了名录库调查在统计工作中的重要作用,最后提出深化我国政府统计改革的若干建议.     

企业统计市场化定位与目标取向

对企业统计和统计改革的反思(一)企业统计，是统计还是行政记录？统计的原始定义应该是社会经济总体现象数量方面的调查研究活动。西方发达国家在市场经济条件下形成的关于统计的概念与我国长期以来在高度集中的计划经济体制下形成的统计概念有很大不同。在资本主义国家的统计概念中，是将统计和行政记录在性质上明确区分，统计主要是提供有关宏观管理与调控的社会经济总体现象的数量方面资料。我国在计划经济体制下形成的企业统计，其实质是行政记录，它的形式就是全面统计报表。这种行政记录只能对政府，对上级起作用，对于一个企业来说，…     

浅谈统计与行政记录

在现有的统计文献中 ,还没有给行政记录下一个准确的定义。笔者认为 ,行政记录就是指官方在行使行政职权过程中对事物及其变化所作的描述、记载。各地方的地方志中对社会经济现象的描述是当地行政记录的最典型形式。在没有统计行政的时代 ,行政记录是对社会经济现象进行数量描述的最主要形式。随着市场经济的不断发展 ,充分运用行政记录作为统计资料来源的补充已显必要。统计与行政记录也有非常密切的联系。首先 ,从广义看 ,统计工作的成果也就是统计行政过程中的行政记录 ,统计行政取得的各种数据资料就是统计行政记录 ,同时行政记录也是一…     

浅谈统计与行政记录

在现有的统计文献中，关于统计与行政记录的关系只有简单提及，没有给行政记录下一个准确的定义。我们认为，行政记录就是指官方在行使行政职权过程中对事物及其变化所作的文字描述、记载。行政记录一般以文字形式记载，其中也包含对事物数据现象的描述，民间的记载只有得到官方认可后才可转变为行政记录。各地方的地方志中对 描述是当地行政记录的最典型形式。在没有统计行政的时代，行政记录是对社会经济现象进行数量描述的最主要形式。     

浅谈统计与行政记录

本文对统计行政记录和统计的要领进行辩析 ,分析其异同 ,为正确发挥统计行政记录的作用提供了理论基础。     

浅谈统计与行政记录

目前 ,随着市场经济的不断发展 ,运用全面统计搜集统计资料已遇困难 ,为了搜集有关方面的数据 ,在运用其他方法的同时充分运用行政记录作为统计资料来源的补充。那么 ,统计与行政记录有何区别与联系呢 ?统计与行政记录的区别表现在 ,首先内涵不同 ,“统计”就是用数字表述事实 ,目前包括三方面内容 ,即统计工作、统计资料、统计学 ;而“行政记录”则是同时用文字和数字表述事实。其次 ,资料来源不同 ,统计资料来源于用统计方法搜集到的社会经济各方面的信息 ,统计方法主要有普查、全面统计、抽样调查等 ,以及随着科学技术的发展出现的数学模…     

统计数据协调性检验方法及实证分析

随着中国政府统计日益公开透明,反映中国宏观经济运行和民生的统计指标之间,以及统计核算与会计核算、行政记录之间的协调性问题,倍受业界、学界、公众的普遍关注。统计数据与百姓的感受不一致甚至相背离,使"被统计、被增长"等词语流行开来。统计数据的协调性问题成为当前各级政府统计部门必须面对的重要问题。     

赴瑞士和德国统计考察报告及几点启示

2011年9月7日至16日,应瑞士和德国统计部门的邀请,我有幸随考察团对瑞、德两国进行了考察和访问。本次考察目的是借鉴瑞士、德国在统计法制、统计体制、统计方法制度、服务业统计等方面的做法和经验,以期完善上海服务业统计的方法制度、指标体系等;学习发达国家如何利用部门行政记录补充和完善统计信息库以及管理好部门行政记录的经验和做法。此次考察收获颇多,达到了预期效果。     

试论建立健全统计之行政程序

进一步增强行政程序意识、加强行政程序的建设，是政府部门的一项十分重要的任务。在当前，作为政府部门的统计机构，注重行政程序的建立和健全工作，并认真依照行政程序开展各项统计活动显得尤为重要。本文坚持理论联系实际的原则，对统计行政程序的含义、建立健全统计行政程序的重要意义、统计行政行为决策程序和统计行政程序建立健全中的若干关键问题等方面进行了初步的探讨，对于深入推进统计部门的依法行政具有一定的参考价值。     

Goals for Statistical Uses of Administrative Records: The Next 10 Years

United States statistical agencies use data from administrative record systems to develop program statistics, to establish statistical data bases, and to enhance and evaluate census and survey data. Such uses of administrative records are likely to increase as efforts to control costs and respondent burden of statistical programs continue. This review article proposes six goals for enhanced statistical uses of administrative records in the next 10 years and describes elements of an activist strategy to achieve them. The discussants, representing three agencies that make important statistical uses of administrative records, give their reactions to the proposed goals and strategy.     

Information integration for constructing social statistics: history, theory and ideas towards a research programme

Summary.  More precise policy making at all levels of government has fuelled tremendous demand for small area data—smaller than ever before. At the same time, there has been an unprecedented accumulation of data in geographic information systems, administrative records databases and more sophisticated survey sampling schemes. Researchers and practitioners have been trying to combine these diverse sources of data. But how should these diverse sources of data be combined in a way that is policy relevant and statistically principled? The paper illustrates these questions with several example applications at the state, county and local level: emerging geographic information systems databases, the need for estimates of small area income, poverty, demographic and uninsurance data by health authorities, and how administrative records databases (such as licensed day care facilities, traffic counts and unemployment insurance records) are being harvested for their information content. Finally, the paper proposes approaches for integrating these diverse sources of data with different error, uncertainty and quality profiles, and surveys persistent challenges in this area.     

THE CONTRIBUTION OF W. H. ARCHER TO VITAL STATISTICS IN THE COLONY OF VICTORIA

William Henry Archer, as Assistant Registrar General, was responsible for implementing the 1854 Registration Act in the colony of Victoria, and thereby helped establish the framework for official statistics in Australia. Eminently suitable for this role, having served his apprenticeship as an actuary and statistician in London prior to emigration in 1852, his career paralleled that of Dr. William Farr, the famous vital statistician. The greatest contribution Archer made to statistics in Australia was to put the lessons learnt by the statisticians of early Victorian England to advantage and place government statistical practices on a sound footing. Archer had a special interest in infant and childhood mortality, then accounting for one-half of all deaths in the new colony, and showed that a major factor was the extent of dysentery and diarrhoea during the warmer part of the year. Despite the high prevalence, Archer calculated the incidence of infant mortality to be less than in Europe at the time. Had he established links with the medical profession or with persons in the Social sciences who could have appreciated the valuable information being collected in the new government records, as in England where the sanitary reformers made great use of data collected by Farr for their own ends, Archer could have had a far greater impact on the intellectual and medical life of Victoria. Instead he was deflected into an administrative career which ended prematurely for political and religious reasons.     

Which countries will follow the Scandinavian lead in taking a register-based census of population?

"During the past twenty years Scandinavian countries have made changes in the methods of taking population and housing censuses that are more fundamental than any seen since modern census methods were first introduced two hundred years ago. These countries extract their census data in part or in whole from administrative registers. If other countries in Western Europe were to adopt this approach, most of them would have to make major improvements to their administrative records. But the primary reasons for making such improvements are concerned with administration and policy rather than statistics, namely, the need to secure a more effective and fairer system of public administration and to enable governments to exercise a wider range of policy options."     

Generalized order statistic processes and Pfeifer records

We introduce a uniform generalized order statistic process. It is a simple Markov process whose initial segment can be identified with a set of uniform generalized order statistics. A standard marginal transformation leads to a generalized order statistic process related to non-uniform generalized order statistics. It is then demonstrated that the nth variable in such a process has the same distribution as an nth Pfeifer record value. This process representation of Pfeifer records facilitates discussion of the possible limit laws for Pfeifer records and, in some cases, of sums thereof. Because of the close relationship between Pfeifer records and generalized order statistics, the results shed some light on the problem of determining the nature of the possible limiting distributions of the largest generalized order statistic.     

Missing data methods in official statistics in the United Kingdom: Some recent developments

In recent years an increase in nonresponse rates in major government and social surveys has been observed. It is thought that decreasing response rates and changes in nonresponse bias may affect, potentially severely, the quality of survey data. This paper discusses the problem of unit and item nonresponse in government surveys from an applied perspective and highlights some newer developments in this field with a focus on official statistics in the United Kingdom (UK). The main focus of the paper is on post-survey adjustment methods, in particular adjustment for item nonresponse. The use of various imputation and weighting methods is discussed in an example. The application also illustrates the close relationship between missing data and measurement error. JEL classification C42, C81     

中国地区经济发展不平衡及影响因素研究——基于夜间灯光数据

本文以全球夜间灯光数据为参照，分别从地级和县级行政区层面研究了1992-2016年我国地区经济发展不平衡的演化及其影响因素。受地级和县级人均GDP数据可得性和准确性的限制，首先利用省级人均GDP与灯光亮度关系估算地级和县级的经济产出水平。基于地级和县级经济产出水平，测算了地区经济差异指数、泰尔指数和阿特金森指数，证实了各省份、全国及四大地区均呈现库兹涅茨倒“U”曲线。对泰尔指数进行四大地区分解，发现了四大地区间的经济差异是我国地区经济不平衡的主要根源。地区经济发展不平衡的影响因素研究再次证实库兹涅茨曲线的存在，还发现城镇化水平和产业结构变迁与地区经济不平衡之间也存在倒“U”型关系，教育水平的提升与交通基础设施的完善分别扩大和缩小了地区经济的不平衡，但资源禀赋、对外开放度和政府消费与地区经济不平衡的关系并不显著。     

政府规模与公共服务支出:来自中国省级水平的经验证据

本文使用我国2000—2006年省级水平的面板数据,应用动态面板数据模型方法对我国政府规模与公共服务支出的关系进行了研究,并用政府消费支出比重和行政人员比重分别衡量政府规模,结果均表明,政府规模对公共服务支出存在显著的正的影响,从而引发了对现在政府机构改革的思考,并据此结论提出了相应的政策与建议。