WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY YOUR VOTE WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE?

One of the motivations for voting is that one vote can make a difference. In a presidential election, the probability that your vote is decisive is equal to the probability that your state is necessary for an electoral college win, times the probability the vote in your state is tied in that event. We computed these probabilities a week before the 2008 presidential election, using state‐by‐state election forecasts based on the latest polls. The states where a single vote was most likely to matter are New Mexico, Virginia, New Hampshire, and Colorado, where your vote had an approximate 1 in 10 million chance of determining the national election outcome. On average, a voter in America had a 1 in 60 million chance of being decisive in the presidential election. (JEL H0)     

Voters and Values in the 2004 Election

A poorly devised exit poll question undermined meaningful analysisof voters’ concerns in the 2004 presidential election.Twenty-two percent of voters picked "moral values" from a listof "issues" describing what mattered most in their vote, morethan selected any other item. Various commentators have misinterpretedthis single data point to conclude that moral values are anascendant political issue and to credit conservative Christiangroups with turning George W. Bush’s popular vote defeatin 2000 into his three million–vote margin of victoryin 2004. We suggest, rather, that while morals and values arecritical in informing political judgments, they represent personalcharacteristics and ill-defined policy preferences far morethan any discrete political issue. First by conflating moralsand values and then by further conflating characteristics andissues, the exit poll’s "issues" list distorted our understandingof the 2004 election. In this article, we examine the flawsin the 2004 National Election Pool exit poll’s "most importantissue" question and explore the presumed rising electoral importanceof moral values and the conservative Christians who overwhelminglyselected this item. Using national exit poll data from 1980through 2004 and other national surveys, we find that the moralvalues item on the issues list cannot properly be viewed asa discrete issue or set of closely related issues; that itsimportance to voters has not grown over time; and that whencontrolled for other variables, it ranks low on the issues listin predicting 2004 vote choices. The aggregated exit poll dataalso show that the voting behavior of conservative Christiansis relatively stable over time, and these voters were not primarilyresponsible for Bush’s improvement in 2004 over 2000.     

The Undeserving Rich: “Moral Values” and the White Working Class1

White working‐class citizens who vote for the Republican Party have been fodder for much political discussion and speculation recently, and a debate has arisen about the role that “moral values” played in the political decision making of this segment of voters. In this article, we defend a version of the moral values claim. We show that although the Republicans’ policies are unpopular, they are bundled with an overarching moral framework that is extremely resonant to this set of voters, and we use in‐depth interviews to uncover this framework. A key feature of this framework, on which in the 2004 presidential election George W. Bush scored high and John Kerry scored low, is the appropriate attitude to wealth, which serves as an indicator for a candidate’s general moral philosophy and as a heuristic about whether the candidate will govern with working‐class voters’ interests in mind. National Election Studies data support the argument that this was a key influence on the voting decision in 2004, even controlling for voters’ partisan identification.     

Candidate Sex and Congressional Elections

Abstract

In 1992, an unprecedented number of women were elected to Congress. This election seemed to debunk the notion of female disadvantage as female candidates ran better than males. Since 1992, however, female candidates have failed to compete as effectively as men in congressional elections, again raising the specter of a sex bias. In this paper, we examine 365 open seat congressional elections held since 1982 in order to ascertain whether the indicators of female success in the 1980s and early 1990s structured female candidate success and/or failure after 1992. For this study, these indicators include candidate attributes such as financial quality and candidate experience. Our examination indicates that candidate attributes have significantly weakened as predictors of open seat election outcomes, especially in female versus male races. Instead, a strong increase in the correlation of the presidential normal vote and the congressional vote in open seats since 1992 indicates the emergence of elections where candidate attributes are secondary to the partisanship of the district. Female versus male races demonstrate much higher partisan coherence than all-male open seat contests, and Democratic women run about six points behind Republican women when district partisanship is controlled. These factors, combined with the increasingly Democratic distribution of female nominations, mitigate against female gains through open seats after 1992.     

Race,Religiosity, and the Women's Vote

Abstract

Much of our popular political discourse focuses on the Democratic character of the women's vote, but there is, in fact, considerable diversity among female voters. Important sectors of the female electorate have political concerns that are at odds with the Democratic Party, though they hold these preferences less strongly than do men. This article focuses on these differences between women and links them to electoral behavior in the 1996 presidential election. I argue that women, like men, cast their vote with the party that best represents their interests, as they understand them. African American women overwhelmingly supported the Democratic Party in 1996, which is consistent with theories of racial group interests, but white women diverge politically.

The main finding of this research is that religious values play a central role in white women's voting behavior, even after taking into account ideological and partisan predispositions. We see this result, I argue, because religious and secular women correctly identify the Republican Party as the repository of social conservatism and the Democratic Party as embracing social liberalism.     

Rocking the Vote: Using Personalized Messages to Motivate Voting among Young Adults

We examined a nationwide effort to encourage young adults to vote in the 1996 U.S. presidential election. During the year before the election, individuals were given the chance to sign and self-address one of two kinds of postcards pledging to vote; these cards were mailed back to the individuals within 2 weeks prior to the election. It is important to note that some individuals completed pledge cards that prompted them to provide their own reason for voting by completing the sentence, "I will vote because ______," whereas other individuals completed pledge cards that did not contain this sentence prompt. We conducted a large-scale survey of individuals who filled out pledge cards and determined that receiving a pledge card with the sentence prompt had a positive influence on voting. Moreover, this effect was found above and beyond demographic and psychological predictors of voting. Implications of these findings are discussed.     

Event-related clinical distress in college students: Responses to the 2016 U.S. Presidential election

Abstract

Objectives: College students have cited the 2016?U.S. presidential election as a significant source of stress. The current study examined the prevalence and demographic correlates of clinically significant election-related avoidance and intrusion symptoms among college students 2–3?months after the election. Participants: College students attending a large public university (N?=?769; M_age?=?19.19; 48.2% female; 58.4% White) were surveyed in January and February 2017. Methods: Participants completed a validated measure of clinically significant event-related distress symptoms (eg, intrusive thoughts, avoidance) and demographic questions. Results: One out of four students met criteria for clinically significant symptoms related to the election. Regression analyses suggested that sex, political party, religion, and perceived impact of the election on relationships were more useful predictors of stress symptoms than race or social class. Conclusions: The high level of event-related distress is concerning because elevated symptoms of event-related stress are predictive of future distress and subsequent PTSD diagnoses.     

The Organic Crisis of the British State: Putting Brexit in its Place

The Brexit vote was a singular event that is one symptom of a continuing organic crisis of the British state and society and a stimulus for further struggles over the future of the United Kingdom and its place in Europe and the wider world. This crisis previously enabled the rise of Thatcherism as a neoliberal and neoconservative project (with New Labour as its left wing) with an authoritarian populist appeal and authoritarian statist tendencies that persisted under the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition (2010–2015). The 2015 election of a Conservative Government, which aimed to revive the Thatcherite project and entrench austerity, was the immediate context for the tragi-comedy of errors played out in the referendum. The ensuing politics and policy issues could promote the disintegration of the UK and, perhaps, the EU without delivering greater political sovereignty or a more secure and non-balkanized place for British economic space in the world market.     

Citizens with learning disabilities and the right to vote

This paper asks, in the context of recent legislative changes, what can be done to support more citizens in England and Wales with learning disabilities to vote in national elections? This issue is addressed through (i) a review of recent disability access campaigns that have reported discrimination against, and the under‐representation of, adults with disabilities in UK elections; (ii) a review of recent research undertaken in the USA into the assessment of competence to vote and research undertaken in England that conclusively documents the under‐representation of voters with learning disabilities in the 2005 general election. It is proposed that a ‘functional approach’ to developing an individual's capacity to vote could help to fulfil Article 29 of the United Nations' Convention on the rights of persons with disabilities that gives all people the same political rights.     

Analysis of Sexual Behavior Acceptance In Poland

Abstract

Current investigations into post-communist Polish sexual behavior acceptance levels indicate that men show a decidedly higher concern for their partner's sexual satisfaction than women do, and that women are more sensitive than previously thought to smells and pre-or-gasmic activities. Research was conducted with a 200-person married population (25–40 years old) in Wroclaw, Poland. The Sexual Stimuli Scale developed by Z. Lew-Starowicz (1988) was the basic testing method. The results of this investigation also indicate that men are more active and women relatively passive, in compliance with social mores. Men are more open than women to various kinds of stimulation and forms of sexual contact, activity directed not only to achieving personal pleasure but also including various kinds of caresses, manual and oral, leading to the woman's sexual satisfaction.     

Pre-election polling and third party candidates

I analyze voters’ incentives in responding to pre-election polls with a third party candidate. Third party supporters normally have an incentive to vote strategically in the election by voting for one of the major candidates. But these voters would vote third party if the third party candidate is doing surprisingly well in the polls. Because voters are more likely to vote third party if the third party candidate is doing well in polls, voters who like the third party candidate best have an incentive to claim they will vote third party in the polls so that more voters will ultimately vote third party in the election. The differing incentives faced during polls and elections accounts for why third party candidates do better in polls than in elections.     

Unionism and voter turnout

Conventional wisdom suggests that union members and their families are more politically active, and more likely to vote, than nonmembers. This study presents, to our knowledge, the first systematic empirical examination of that conventional wisdom. Results suggest that union members are more likely than nonmembers to vote in a general election, and that union campaign efforts increase voter turnout generally. There is no evidence, however, that union family members are more likely to vote than nonmembers, or that union status affects an individual’s likelihood of voting in a primary election. The authors wish to thank Robert Perloff, Donna Sockell, and an anonymous referee for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. This study was partially supported by a Columbia University Graduate School of Business Faculty Research Fellowship and a Faculty Research Grant from the University of Pittsburgh Graduate School of Business.     

Communication With Parents and Body Satisfaction in College Students

Abstract

Objective: This study examined how communication with parents is related to college students’ body satisfaction. Participants and Methods: Participants (N = 134; 58 males and 76 females) completed a survey in March 2011 assessing body satisfaction and perceptions of communication with mothers and fathers. Results: Daughters’ body satisfaction was negatively correlated with perceptions of problematic communication with mothers and fathers. Sons’ body satisfaction was positively correlated with open communication with their mothers and negatively correlated with problematic communication with their mothers. Conclusions: Findings indicated problematic communication with mothers was the most powerful predictor of daughters’ body satisfaction, whereas open communication with mothers was the best predictor of sons’ body satisfaction.     

Estimating the effects of activists in two-party and multi-party systems: comparing the United States and Israel

This article presents an electoral model where activist groups contribute resources to their favored parties. These resources are then used by the party candidates to enhance the electoral perception of their quality or valence. We construct an empirical model of the United States presidential election of 2008 and employ the electoral perception of the character traits of the two candidates. We use a simulation technique to determine the local Nash equilibrium, under vote share maximization, of this model. The result shows that the unique vote-maximizing equilibrium is one where the two candidates adopt convergent positions, close to the electoral center. This result conflicts with the estimated positions of the candidates in opposed quadrants of the policy space. The difference between estimated positions and equilibrium positions allows us to estimate the influence of activist groups on the candidates. We compare this estimation with that of Israel for the election of 1996, and show that vote maximization leads low valence parties to position themselves far from the electoral origin. We argue that these low valence parties in Israel will be dependent on support of radical activist groups, resulting in a degree of political fragmentation.     

Social connectedness and life satisfaction: Comparing mean levels for 2 undergraduate samples and testing for improvement based on brief counseling

ABSTRACT

Objectives: Comparing the mean levels of social connectedness and life satisfaction, and analyzing their relationship for 2 undergraduate samples, and testing for an increase in their means for a brief counseling sample. Participants: Between October 2013 and May 2015, 3 samples were collected: not-in-counseling (NIC; n = 941), initial counseling session (ICS; ie, triage session only; n = 168), and brief counseling (BC; ie, median of 4 additional counseling sessions; n = 28). Methods: Online surveys measuring demographic and background control variables, social connectedness, and life satisfaction. Results: NIC students exhibited higher social connectedness and life satisfaction than ICS students. Social connectedness significantly explained life satisfaction beyond controlled-for variables for both samples. There was a significant increase in social connectedness and life satisfaction for the BC sample. Conclusions: Social connectedness is an important antecedent of life satisfaction for undergraduates. Brief counseling can increase transition students' social connectedness and life satisfaction.     

Character Counts?: Honesty and Fairness in Election 2000

This article examines the impact that voters’ evaluationsof the candidates’ character had on their vote choicein the 2000 presidential election. We find that while the magnitudeof the impact of character on the vote was roughly equal forboth major party candidates, contrary to common perception,the substantive significance of character evaluations disproportionatelyaffected George W. Bush. Our results indicate the need to accountfor the influence of character in other elections, given thatcharacter issues are a recurring theme in American presidentialcampaigns.     

Families and the Moral Economy of Incarceration

SUMMARY

The experiences of families of prisoners barely register in contemporary debates over criminal sanctions. But the accounts of families of prisoners demonstrate that mass incarceration does far more than punish and deter. By pitting the moral and economic interests of families against one another, it erodes the fundamental norms of social life itself. As family members are pressed hard to withdraw their care and concern from one another, the effect is more than the impoverishment of individuals: As over-incarceration increases the costs of caring relationships, the loss becomes a moral one and, in time, we impoverish our culture as well.     

Models of representation,Mobilization and Turnout: The Election of the Foreign Citizens' Council of the Province of Bologna

The Foreign Citizens' Council of the Province of Bologna is a consultative, elected body that the Province has implemented to give representation to the non‐EU population, given the absence of local voting rights for these migrants in Italy. This work analyses the models of political representation implicit in the electoral rules of the council and in the organization of the main competing lists in the election, and, through the analysis of electoral data and 32 in‐depth interviews with the candidates, the effect the different models had. While the vote seems to have been mostly intra‐national, cross‐national lists were the most successful. The different levels of turnout among the electorate suggest that the vote was based on mobilization rather than on trust in the political system, and that the analyses that link associational density with electoral participation pose some theoretical and methodological problems in this field.

Policy Implications

• Migrants' participation policy is always based on implicit political models of participation that should always be made explicit and examined before implementation.
• There is always a plurality of political preferences for different models of participation in the migrant population, that should be explored and accommodated.
• The number of associations in existence should not be used as an indicator of a strong civil society as largely as it is presently.

     

A law of large numbers for weighted plurality

Consider an election between $k$ candidates in which each voter votes randomly (but not necessarily independently) for a single candidate, and suppose that there is a single candidate that every voter prefers (in the sense that each voter is more likely to vote for this special candidate than any other candidate). Suppose we have a voting rule that takes all of the votes and produces a single outcome and suppose that each individual voter has little effect on the outcome of the voting rule. If the voting rule is a weighted plurality, then we show that with high probability, the preferred candidate will win the election. Conversely, we show that this statement fails for all other reasonable voting rules. This result is an extension of one by Häggström, Kalai and Mossel, who proved the above in the case $k=2$ .