Population,environment and sustainable development

The present population of Sri Lanka (17.7 million) is sufficient to create concern about the use, limitations, and waste of natural resources. Between 1871 and 1946, the population grew at an average rate of 1.4% annually, with high fertility and mortality. The population doubled between 1946 and 1981, and mortality declined. Between 1971 and 1991, the rate of growth declined due to a decrease in fertility and an increase in emigration. With a growth rate of 1.4%, the population will again double to 35 million by 2040. Technological improvements in Sri Lanka have led to an eight-fold increase in metric tons of rice production, but the growth in population has caused a deficiency in output so that basic per capita caloric requirements are not being met. Increased productivity has almost depleted the area available for cultivation, and the use of fertilizers to increase yields has environmental drawbacks. The high fertility of the 1970s contributed to increased labor force participation rates of 2.2%, which resulted in more people joining the labor force than leaving. Thus, the employment market has been unable to absorb the unemployed or potential new workers. Growth of the employment market may also conflict with environmental protection, as exemplified by the mining of the coral reef on the southwestern coast. The conversion of forests to agriculture resulted in forest losses of about 42,000 hectares per year during 1956-83. Deforestation is also occurring in the high forests due to increased pressure for fuelwood. In the wet zone, the use of forests for fuelwood is declining, but rubber wood is being harvested for industrial production. In order to slow population growth to replacement levels by the year 2000 (with a total population of 25 million), contraceptive prevalence must be increased to 72% at a cost of about $25 million.     

北京市未来50年户籍人口变动趋势预测

本文以第五次人口普查资料为基础 ,结合“北京市个人生育意愿调查”的研究结果 ,对北京市未来 5 0年户籍人口的变动趋势进行了预测分析。研究表明 :北京市户籍人口在未来若干年会保持上升趋势 ,2 0 35年左右达到高峰 ;北京市户籍人口老龄化趋势明显 ;适当调整户籍人口总和生育率对于改善户籍人口年龄结构具有一定作用     

东亚模式与中国长期经济增长

自1978年改革开放以来,中国以9.36%的年均增长速度保持了高速的长期经济增长。2002年,中国为本世纪的前20年的增长确定了新的战略目标,到2020年,中国当年的GDP将在2000年的基础上翻两番。本文通过中国经济增长与东亚模式的比较,分析了中国经济长期高速增长的可能、趋势及正反两方面的影响因素。     

Industrial population,gross national product and growth of cities and towns

This article, which is translated from the original Chinese, examines whether China's current rate of urbanization is compatible with its economic development objectives. Changes in the level of urbanization from 1949 to 1984 are first reviewed. The author then outlines the growth of the urban labor force and the relationship between urbanization and gross national product. It is concluded that it is in the country's interest to continue to control the rate of urban growth up to the end of this century, in order to ensure that the urban population does not exceed 40 percent of the total population by the year 2000.     

Thailand's reproductive revolution

Thailand has achieved a remarkable population revolution in the past 15 years, resulting in a fertility decline of 44%, the 3rd greatest decline of the major developing countries. Thailand is quite distinct from either China or South Korea, the leaders in fertility decline. It has neither China's authoritarian power system to enforce population control nor the highly developed, Westernized outlook of South Korea. Instead it achieved its astounding fertility drop through a noncoercive family planning program operating within a context of rapid social change and a cultural setting. Thailand's drop in population growth has touched almost all segments of Thai society. The preferred number of children among couples married less than 5 years has dropped in both rural and urban families at almost exactly the same rate, from about 3.2 in 1969 to 2.3 in 1984. Religious groups represent the only substantial difference in family size preference; Moslem women married less than 5 years stated a desired average of 3.1 children versus 2.3 for Buddhist women. The direct case of the fertility drop is a national increase in contraceptive use. In 1984, 65% of Thai women reported using contraception. The Thai population, however, was ripe for using contraception when it became available due to 1) mass media creating a desire for consumer goods, 2) the increased costs of education to parents, 3) the willingness of parents to trade off "parent repayment" from many children for a few quality children, 4) couples' autonomy in fertility decision making, 5) the high status of women in Thailand, and 6) the fact that Buddhism poses no barriers to contraception. Current trends show no immediate sign of change.     

Projecting Australia's Fertility—Postscript

An accelerated decline in family size has led to a downward revision of projected fertility. Replacement fertility could be reached in the 1980s with births numbering about 250,000 a year. The population is approaching stability at the younger ages. The potential for poverty arising from large families may be halved in ten years.     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy： Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland＇s Provincial Fertility Levels

“十一五”期间我国大陆的总和生育率为1．481,呈稳中有降态势,形成了“中、西部中度低水平,东部深度低水平,东北极度低水平”的空间格局。除少数极低生育率省区回升外,实际生育率及其与政策生育率的比值仍在下降。生育率下降的主要推动力是发展,突出表现为生育旺盛期育龄妇女比总人口和育龄妇女的城镇化、非农化水平高、人口外出流动比例大,以及城镇生产、生活方式和文化观念对农业人口的同化作用。发展促使生育率下降的趋势已不可逆转。现行生育政策难以使生育率稳定在合理的低水平。有可能引起政策性反弹的重点在计划生育基础较好的城镇和东部及东北地区;有可能引起非政策性反弹的势能,已基本释放;中、西部农村年轻一代妇女多胎生育平均只有4．12％。生育政策调整完善中的生育率反弹可通过渐进式策略实施有效调控,不会引起生育率大幅强烈反弹。我国生育政策全国统一调整时机已成熟。     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy: Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland’s Provincial Fertility Levels

During the 11^th Five-year Plan (2006-2010), the total fertility rate of the mainland of China was 1.481 and was stable with a slight decline, exhibiting a spatial pattern of moderately low fertility in the central and western regions, very low fertility in the east and extremely low fertility in the northeast. Except for a rebound in a few provinces and regions with extremely low fertility rates, the ratio of actual fertility rates to policy fertility rates is still falling. The reduced fertility rate is mainly driven by development, notably the proportion of the total population represented by the exuberantly fertile women of child-bearing age and their greater urbanization, growing level of non-agricultural employment and outflow from rural areas, as well as the assimilative effect of urban production, lifestyles and cultural concepts upon the agricultural population. Development has catalyzed an irreversible trend of declining fertility; existing fertility policy has proven insufficient to keep fertility rates stable at reasonably low levels. Policy-based rebounds may emerge in urban areas and the east and northeast, where family planning policy has been better implemented; on the other hand, a non-policy-based rebound may have been released. In the central and western rural areas, multiple births occur on average among only 4.12 percent of the younger generation of women. As fertility policy is adjusted and improved, fertility rebounds in transitional fertility policy adjustment can be effectively regulated through a gradual strategy which will not provoke a sharp rebound. The time is ripe for China to conduct a nationally unified adjustment of the existing fertility policy.     

Forecasting the cost of U.S. Health Care in 2040

One of the most important debates among health economists in rich nations is whether advances in biotechnology will spare their health care systems from a financial crisis. We must consider that prevalence rates of chronic diseases declined during the twentieth century and that this rate of decline has accelerated. However, health care costs may continue to increase even as the age of onset of chronic diseases is delayed, because the proportion of a cohort living to late ages will increase. The accelerating decline in the prevalence of chronic diseases during the course of the twentieth century supports the proposition that increases in life expectancy during the twenty-first century will be fairly large, but the effect on health care in the U.S. will be modest. The income elasticity for health services is calculated at 1.6, meaning that income expenditures on health care in the U.S. are likely to rise from a current level of about 15 percent to about 29 percent of GDP in 2040.     

Disability poverty and ageing in regional Australia: The impact of disability income reforms for indigenous Australians

Australian disability policy has undergone considerable reform since the early 2000s. While recent research and scholarship has largely focused on the new National Disability Insurance Scheme, there is a dearth of research that examines the impact of reform to the Disability Support Pension, and even less so the effects on Indigenous Australians living with disability. This is surprising as a higher proportion of Indigenous Australians live with disability than the non‐Indigenous population. This article pays particular attention to the experiences of Aboriginal Australians who have acquired a disability after extensive years of working (25–40 years), yet are still of workforce age (less than 65 years of age). Because of tightened eligibility criteria for the Disability Support Pension, people in this group are placed onto the lower paid Newstart Allowance (general unemployment benefit). The article illustrates the high levels of poverty that Aboriginal Australians with disabilities experience daily, and the ongoing costs they incur in managing Newstart conditionality to maintain continued access to the general unemployment benefit.     

On the Zinov′ev Phenomenon

The Soviet Union occupies a firm place in foreign markets, its foreign trade turnover having moved up to sixth place in the world. Last year its foreign trade turnover topped 42 billion rubles, an increase of 25% as against 1958 in comparable prices. Soviet exports in the same period rose by 27%. This was the peak year for Soviet exports. In absolute figures the export of goods from the USSR amounted to 21.7 billion rubles in 1959 as against 7.2 billion rubles in 1950.     

Japan's Radical Reform of Long-term Care

Japan's mandatory long‐term care social insurance system started in 2000. Many important choices about the basic shape and size of the system, as well as a host of details, were necessary when the program was being planned. It represents a reversal from earlier steps toward a tax‐based direct‐service system, and is based on consumer choice of services and providers. The benefits are in the form of institutional or community‐based services, not cash, and are aimed at covering all caregiving costs (less a 10 percent co‐payment) at six levels of need, as measured by objective test. Revenues are from insurance contributions and taxes. The program costs about $40 billion, and is expected to rise to about $70 billion annually by 2010 as applications for services go up. There are about 2.2 million beneficiaries, about 10 percent of the 65+ population. The program has operated within its budget and without major problems for two years and is broadly accepted as an appropriate and effective social program.     

New trends in national minority population since the 1980s

The author discusses policies that were developed in China in the 1980s specifically for the minority populations, and describes how they differ from the country's general population policies. These differences center on a greater leniency toward fertility among minorities, such as a permitted norm of two children, and, in some cases, three or four children per couple. The author also describes recent demographic trends among the minority populations, with particular reference to falling fertility rates and continuing high general mortality and infant mortality rates. Aspects of the age and sex structure, educational status, and literacy of the minority populations are also reviewed.     

北京市近年离婚水平与年龄分布的变动趋势分析

2004年以来,北京市的离婚总量持续上升,粗离婚率和离结率在全国均居于中等偏上的位次,其中在民政部门登记离婚的比重逐年提高.基于2004-2011年北京市登记离婚数据的分析表明,男性和女性的平均离婚年龄、平均婚后年数相比上世纪90年代初均有较大推迟；离婚者的年龄结构近年也出现较大变化,30岁以下年轻人和50岁以上中老年人的离婚率以及在离婚总量中所占比重均有明显上升趋势；平均婚后年数在3年以内和21年以上的离婚夫妇的数量和比重也呈增长态势.     

The challenge of keeping Japanese older people economically active

Japanese society faces serious problems due to population ageing. Both the number and percentage of people aged 65 years old and over are increasing. The ratio of those aged 65+ was 17.3 per cent in 2000, but the estimate of the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research is that the ratio will become 28.7 per cent in 2025 and will reach 40 per cent in 2050. This article consists of four sections. In the first the characteristics of issues associated with population ageing in Japan are discussed. The actual situations of employment and lives of older workers are introduced. The second section analyses government policies to address the ageing of the population. The Japanese government is trying to address the issue through encouraging older people to work longer. The promotion of efforts to extend longer working lives is discussed. In the third section a rehiring system and two cases of Japanese firms are described. Those enterprises are effectively employing older workers. Their experiences would be interesting for those planning to hire older workers. The last section discusses how to resolve challenges associated with population ageing. It is shown that continuous training is one of the most important ways of keeping older people productive.     

Projecting Australia's Fertility

A method has been evolved for projecting Australia's fertility which takes into account changes in family size. Total fertility is expected to fall by about 2 per cent a year. The total number of births is likely to increase to about 285,000 in 1981 and remain at that level to the end of the century.     

Chapter 18. The Aging Network and the Future of Long-Term Care

SUMMARY

Federal and state governments face a significant challenge in meeting the long-term care needs of an older population that will double in size between 2000 and 2020 and continue to increase through 2050. States have made significant improvements in their long-term care systems for the elderly. However, they are still spending a significant proportion of their long-term care funds on nursing homes. Any effort to improve long-term care for the elderly qualitatively, and not just on the margins, must be focused on developing a more flexible and balanced long-term care system that is responsive to consumer choice.

The Aging Services Network is poised to play a significant role in this transformation process. The strengths of the Network include the ability to develop and manage consumer-driven community-based programs; to assess the needs and resources of individual older persons and provide cost-effective community supports; to operate within fixed, capped budgets; and to identify and maintain roles for informal caregivers. Now is the time for national aging organizations, state units on aging, and area agencies on aging to use existing opportunities to move towards the establishment of a balanced system of long-term care.     

Family Structure as a Factor in the Adjustment of Adopted Children

Summary An analysis of the relationship between five types of adoptivefamily structure and the adjustment of adopted children, whenseven to seven and a half years of age, indicates that the presenceof a natural child born after adoption to a previously childlesscouple is associated with serious behavioural dysfunction inthe adopted child. In this type of family the proportion ofboys so maladjusted is 10 times greater than in the modal familytype comprising adopted children only. In terms of specificmanifestations, a greater proportion show habit and sleep disturbance,and problems of behaviour and eating. The findings are discussedcritically, and potential fertility is suggested as a criterionfor the selection of applicant couples who should be counselledto defer their adoption.     

Generalized Population Aging in China: A National-Level Analysis Based on Provincial Simulations

The age structure of the Chinese population is entering a process of generalized aging in which the major age groupings will see a fall in the ratio of younger age groups and a rise in the ratio of older age groups, with varying levels of socioeconomic significance for the entire population system. The implementation of the unconditional two-child policy (quanmian erhai zhengce) has not changed this general trend. The early stage of population aging (2011-2060) is one of the high-speed development of generalized aging with multiple growth peaks and fluctuations in the size, growth rate and internal structure of the major age groupings. From the perspective of generalized population aging, China’s future contains four major systemic demographic dividends and faces four major systemic demographic risks. The early stage of aging is the most important period for the transformation of the population age structure. If society can adjust to the aging trend and the phased nature of the development of this trend, it will be able to seize the initiative in long-term development.     

北京市生育政策调整对出生人口规模的影响

在全面分析北京市户籍人口生育水平、育龄妇女孩次结构、独生子女比例、婚配模式、人口迁移和生育意愿的基础上,本文分析了北京生育政策调整对出生人口规模产生的影响。结果表明户籍人口放开单独对北京新增出生人口的影响非常小,2020年以前每年对北京市户籍人口出生规模的影响在1万-2万人左右,远远低于迁入人口规模的影响。