The Potential of Direct Democracy: A Global Measure (1900–2014)

To what extent is direct democracy achieved in current polities? To answer this question, I develop an index, Direct Democracy Practice Potential, which is applied to 200 polities worldwide. This index results from the aggregation of the scores of four types of mechanisms of direct democracy: popular initiatives, popular referendums, obligatory referendums, and authorities’ plebiscites. This index measures: (1) how easy it is to initiate and approve each type of popular vote, and (2) how consequential that vote is (if approved). Ease of initiation is measured by: (a) the existence of a direct democracy process, (b) the number of signatures needed, and (c) time limits to collect signatures. Ease of approval is measured by quorums pertaining to: (a) participation, (b) approval, (c) supermajority, and (d) district majority. Regarding how consequential the vote is, it considers its decisiveness (whether the decision is binding), and the threat capability of citizen-initiated mechanisms of direct democracy as measured by the frequency with which direct popular votes have been used and approved in the past. Finally, the study tests the validity of the new measure, discussing its strengths and limitations.     

Alfred Sauvy: Statistician,Economist, Demographer and Iconoclast (1898–1990)

Articles appearing in this journal are indexed in Current Contents Environmental Periodicals Bibliography Population Index CICRED's Review Sociological Abstracts Geo Abstracts GEOBASE Historical Abstracts and America: History and Life.     

Instability,investment, disasters,and demography: natural disasters and fertility in Italy (1820–1962) and Japan (1671–1965)

This article examines whether natural disasters affect fertility—a topic little explored but of policy importance given relevance to policies regarding disaster insurance, foreign aid, and the environment. The identification strategy uses historic regional data to exploit natural variation within each of two countries: one European country—Italy (1820–1962), and one Asian country—Japan (1671–1965). The choice of study settings allows consideration of Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory that preindustrial differences in income and population between Asia and Europe resulted from the fertility response to different environmental risk profiles. According to the results, short-run instability, particularly that arising from the natural environment, appears to be associated with a decrease in fertility—thereby suggesting that environmental shocks and economic volatility are associated with a decrease in investment in the population size of future generations. The results also show that, contrary to Jones’ (The European miracle, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1981) theory, differences in fertility between Italy and Japan cannot be explained away by disaster proneness alone. Research on the effects of natural disasters may enable social scientists and environmentalists alike to better predict the potential effects of the increase in natural disasters that may result from global climate change.     

Hispanic Concentrated Poverty in Traditional and New Destinations, 2010–2014

This paper examines patterns of Hispanic concentrated poverty in traditional, new, and minor destinations. Using data from 2010 to 2014 from the American Community Survey, we find that without controlling for group characteristics, Hispanics experience a lower level of concentrated poverty in new destinations compared to traditional gateways. Metropolitan level factors explain this difference, including ethnic residential segregation, the Hispanic poverty rate, and the percentage of Hispanics who are foreign born. Overall, this study sheds new light on the Hispanic geographic dispersal in the United States and offers support for the argument that the Hispanic settlement into new destinations is associated with lower levels of concentrated poverty.     

2014年《人口学刊》总目录(1—6)

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Intensify Quality Service:Yingshan, Hubei

Coveringanareaof1,449squarekilometers,YingshanCountyisamountainousarealocatedinthenortheasternpartofcentralChina'sHubeiProvince.In1998,localpopulationtotaled404,493,ofwhom73,287weremarriedwomenofchildbearingage.Householdsnumbered110,000.Overthepastfi...     

Mudanjiang,Heilongjiang:Reform and Innovation

A Revolutionary Change Reform by nature is a complicated undertaking;the most important thing is to develop a modern spirit and vision first.After more than 30 years of arduous efforts,China achieved a stable,low fertility rate in the late-1990s,an impressive feat.However,the country s population and family planning sector still retained many remnants of the planned-economy era, which is increasingly incompatible with socioeconomic reform.It has become imperative that the family planning sector catch up with the pace of overall reform in China. Reform against such a backdrop has therefore assumed a special importance and urgency.It is not a piecemeal fix of the original system, but rather a revolutionary change. The basic starting point is putting people first and letting people be the greatest beneficiary of reform.     

出生性别比综合治理:有所为,有所不为

从1980年我国出生性别比越过正常值域至今,党和各级政府制订了种种措施进行综合治理,但取得的成效甚微。这一时期我国治理工作的特点有:重视禁止性法律法规的制定,但与之相配套的规章制度比较缺乏;重视目标任务的提出,但落实目标的措施比较缺乏;部门性、专项性规章制度较多,综合性规章制度比较缺乏。今后一段时期内综合治理工作,可以按照避实就虚、避难就易的原则,在大力发展社会经济、建立健全社会养老制度、相关法律法规的制定与完善、加大对两非行为的打击力度等方面有所作为;而在人口生育政策的调整、传统文化的改变等方面有所不为。     

Client-Centered Reproductive HealthServices: Rongcheng,Shandong

RongchengCityisoneofthefirstpilotareasforthefamilyplanningprograminChina.Aftermorethan40yearsofpractice.thecityhasachievedagreatsuccessandgainedvaluableexperiencesinimplementingtheFPprogram.Demographics(1998)Toealpopulation:683,000Marriedwomenofchild...     

Establish Information FeedbackSystem: Heping, Tianjin

Tianjin,facingBohaiSeatotheeast,isoneofChina's,largestportcities.HepingDistrict,coveringanareaof10squarekilometers,isthecity'spolitical,economic,cultural,financialandtradingcenter.In1997,thedistrictwasdesignatedasoneofthefivelocalitiestopilottheQuali...     

Malthus to modernity: wealth,status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879

A key challenge to theories of long-run economic growth has been linking the onset of modern growth with the move to modern fertility limitation. A notable puzzle for these theories is that modern growth in England began around 1780, 100 years before there was seemingly any movement to limit fertility. Here we show that the aggregate data on fertility in England before 1880 conceals significant declines in the fertility of the middle and upper classes earlier. These declines coincide with the Industrial Revolution and are of the character predicted by some recent theories of long-run growth.     

Marital Status and Mothers’ Time Use: Childcare,Housework, Leisure,and Sleep

Assumptions that single mothers are “time poor” compared with married mothers are ubiquitous. We tested theorized associations derived from the time poverty thesis and the gender perspective using the 2003–2012 American Time Use Surveys (ATUS). We found marital status differentiated housework, leisure, and sleep time, but did not influence the amount of time that mothers provided childcare. Net of the number of employment hours, married mothers did more housework and slept less than never-married and divorced mothers, counter to expectations of the time poverty thesis. Never-married and cohabiting mothers reported more total and more sedentary leisure time than married mothers. We assessed the influence of demographic differences among mothers to account for variation in their time use by marital status. Compositional differences explained more than two-thirds of the variance in sedentary leisure time between married and never-married mothers, but only one-third of the variance between married and cohabiting mothers. The larger unexplained gap in leisure quality between cohabiting and married mothers is consistent with the gender perspective.     

Integrate FP withCommunity-basedHealth Service:Xuanwu, Beijing

LocatedintilecentralpartofBeIJing,XuanwuDistrictcoversanareaof16.53squarekilometerswithapopulationof543,700.Populationdensityreaches33,000persquarekilometer.ThereformandopeninguppolicyhasbroughtgreatchallgestoXuanwuDistrictineconomicdevelopmentandpeople'slivillgstandard.Notsurprisingly,tilepopulationreprod[lctivepatternilasalsoundergoneafundamentalchange.Sincetheearly1990s,populationdevelopmentinthisdistricthasbeencharacterizedbyalowbirthrate,lowdeathrateandlownaturalincreaserate,achievinga…     

Fengxian, Shanghai: Improved Services for Migrants

Recent years have seen an increase in the migrant population in Fengxian, Shanghai by 50,000 a year as a result of rapid socioeconomic development. In 2005, the migrant population in this district reached 370,000, close to the total number of permanent residents. This group of people is critical, therefore, to the district government and even the