The likelihood of various stock market return distributions, part 2: Empirical results

The present article shows how Bayesians should shift beliefs among a family of models concerning the probability distribution of daily changes in the Standard & Poor 500 Index, given a particular sample. The preceding article in this issue showed that classical (R.A. Fisher, Neyman-Pearson) inference can be highly misleading for Bayesians, as can the assumption of a diffuse prior. The present article discusses how to bound Bayesian shifts in belief for compound hypotheses generally, as well as the specific shifts in beliefs among simple and compound hypotheses implied by the particular sample.     

Oil prices,stock market returns and volatility spillovers: Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the relationship between crude oil prices and stock market returns in Turkey taking into account volatility spillovers that are exemplified by second moment effects. Using weekly data from 1990 to 2017 and time varying causality-in-mean and causality-in-variance tests and taking into account structural breaks, we model each series as an EGARCH process in order to capture any leverage effects in the volatility of returns. Empirical results suggest crude oil prices as measured by Brent benchmark have significant effects on stock market returns in Turkey. While we fail to document significant spillover effects stemming from oil prices in the entire sample, there are significant spillover effects from crude oil price changes to stock market returns in 1993 and 2008–09. These results suggest that government policies must take into account risk spillover effects between markets and that investors are better off monitoring crude oil markets in portfolio allocation decisions.     

Performance of soccer on the stock market: Evidence from Turkey

This paper assesses the effect of soccer success on stock market returns for three major Turkish teams (Beşiktaş, Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray) after certain characteristics of the stock market are controlled for. The empirical evidence presented here suggests that Beşiktaş's win against foreign rivals in the Winner's Cup increases stock market returns. The same effect is not present for the other two big teams (Fenerbahçe and Galatasaray). The day of the week effect on the stock market and the relationship between risk and return are also presented.     

Pension reform, the stock market, capital formation and economic growth: A critical commentary on the World Bank's proposals

Proposing far-reaching reforms to pension systems, the World Bank has recently suggested that the existing pay-as-you-go systems in many rich as well as poor countries should be replaced by fully funded, mandatory, preferably private pensions, as the main pillars of the new system. It argues that these reforms will not only benefit pensioners but also enhance savings, and promote capital formation and economic development. This paper provides a critical examination of the Bank's theses and concludes that it has adopted a one-sided view of the relationships between the key critical variables. The proposed reform may therefore neither protect the old nor achieve faster economic growth.     

The expected likelihood of transitivity: A survey

May developed an algebraic choice model to describe pairwise comparisons from an empirical study. A probabilistic choice variation of May's model has also been developed. This study presents a survey of work that considers the expected likelihood that a subject using the probabilistic model will have transitive responses for pairwise choices on a set of three alternatives. Of particular interest is the impact that various factors that influence the probabilistic choice model have on the expected likelihood of transitivity. These factors include the degree of accuracy with which the subject perceives the attributes of the alternatives, the number of attributes of comparison, and the consistency with which alternatives are ranked across attributes.This research was supported through a fellowship from the Center for Advanced Study of the University of Delaware.     

The government, the market, and the problem of catastrophic loss

This article addresses the comparative advantage of the government to the private property/casualty insurance industry for the provision of insurance coverage for catastrophic losses. That the government can play an important role as an insurer of societal losses has been a central public policy principle since at least the New Deal. In addition, our government typically automatically provides forms of specific relief following unusually severe or unexpected disasters, which itself can be viewed as a form of ex post insurance. This article argues that, for systemic reasons, the government is much less effective than the private property/casualty insurance market in providing coverage of losses generally, but especially of losses in contexts of catastrophes.     

进化主义原理、价值及世界秩序观——梁启超精神世界的基本观念

一般把严复看成是中国“社会达尔文主义”的主要代表人物，但是，如果我们真正进入到梁启超的思想世界中，我们有更多的理由把梁启超看成是西方“社会达尔文主义”在中国的最合适代理人。梁启超通过把进化主义设定为普遍的公理和普遍的价值，建构起了他的合群民族主义和强权主义世界秩序观，建构起了他的社会政治变革观和社会历史进步观。梁启超的思想以多变著称，但他对进化主义原理和价值的信奉，前后基本上保持了连续性。处在民族和国家危机中的梁启超，不仅用进化主义来解释中国的困境，而且也用进化主义来促进中国的富强。他把进化主义与强权主义结合在一起，目的是急于使中国用物质力量迅速武装起来，同帝国主义展开生死竞争，但这同时也把帝国主义的掠夺正当化，他本身从而也失去了“人道”和“公理”的立场。进化主义使梁启超焦虑，但它也使梁启超具有了期望未来伟大进步的乐观主义态度。这样，中国一时的危机，似乎又成了加强梁启超未来快乐的催化剂。以上的这些看法，是本文对以往关注不够的梁启超的进化主义从四个方面进行了全面考察之后所得出的。由此我们揭示和展现了梁启超精神世界的复杂性。     

The health insurance market,labor unions,and utilization of cancer screening

The present study examines the effect of labor market characteristics, especially labor unions, on the use of two representative cancer screening services, namely the mammogram and the Pap smear, given the level of competition in the health insurance market. The role of labor unions is illustrated by means of estimated probabilities based on regression results that consider, for the first time, both health insurance and labor market variables in the same model by employing a multilevel analysis, a technique not previously used in prevention studies. The results suggest that competition among health insurance plans may actually reduce the use of preventive care whereas union membership may mitigate such negative impacts.     

Determinants of state long-term debt: The political market framework

Because it focuses on the moderating role of political institutions – which emphasize equilibrium policy outcomes under different institutional arrangements derived from the interaction of policy supply and demand – the political market framework provides useful insights for analyzing the determinants of state long-term debt. Thus, different types of state political institutions should affect the degree of long-term debt in terms of specific demands and supply. Despite the numerous studies that have either applied the political market approach to local governments in policy areas or have analyzed the determinants of long-term debt from only a financial management perspective, few studies have applied the political market framework to state governments. Thus, adopting a state financial management perspective and conducting a panel data analysis using state data from 1980 to 2014, this study identifies the reasons why state governments act on long-term obligations in terms of the political market framework. This study also aims to expand the application of the political market framework to state governments and to integrate determinants of state long-term indebtedness.     

The cost of accidental death: A capital market approach

This article analyzes the effect of accidental deaths involving either a firm's workplace or product on the firm's shareholder equity. Significant and sustained losses were found, reaching a peak of over $50 million per fatality during the second week following an accident. The variation in the cumulative percentage loss to the firms due to the accidents is explained by the number of deaths per accident and the riskiness of the product or workplace—the lower the a priori perceived riskiness, the greater the decline in equity.     

The nexus between income distribution,trade policy,and monopoly power: An assessment of the tin market

The article suggests a manner in which degrees of monopoly power can be introduced into a trade policy model of the computable general equilibrium type. The distributional effects of tariffs and subsidies are compared, first under competitive conditions and then under conditions of monopoly power.The tin market, for which Malaysia can be assumed to exert monopoly power, is used as an example to show the distributional consequences of applying a competitive model in cases where a model allowing for monopoly power would have been more appropriate. The existence of monopoly power is shown to have important distributional effects. Policy modelers, dealing with distributional issues, should therefore be careful about the assumptions made about market forms.     

马克思主义公正观的基本向度及方法论原则(英文)

在社会公正问题的大讨论中,罗尔斯、诺齐克、哈耶克、麦金泰尔等当代西方思想家的论述被反复引用和申说,而将马克思恩格斯等经典作家的观点置于一种被忽视甚至被忘却的状态。形成这种状态的原因是多方面的。对历史背景和语境不作具体的分析,就难以把握马克思恩格斯对于社会公正问题的真实态度和精神实质,甚至会得出他们不仅没有关于社会公正的理论,而且反对和拒斥从社会公正角度讨论问题的结论。马克思主义作为无产阶级认识和改造世界、求得自身解放和人类解放的世界观和方法论,是真理与价值相统一的理论,也只有从科学向度与价值向度辩证统一的角度,才可能对作为价值之一种表现的公正问题作出合理的理解。公正既是一种价值观念,具有评价标准的功能,也是实际的价值（包括利益、机会、权利等）分配的一种状态,其中会涉及自由与平等的矛盾、形式公正与实质公正的矛盾、一般与特殊的差别、平等与效率的抵牾、公正与不公正的对立,等等,只有运用辩证思维的方法,才能对其复杂性获得正确的认识。     

The Marxist View of Equity: Basic Dimensions and Methodological Principles

在社会公正问题的大讨论中﹐ 罗尔斯、诺齐克、哈耶克、麦金泰尔等当代西方思 想家的论述被反复引用和申说﹐ 而将马克思恩格斯等经典作家的观点置于一种被忽视 甚至被忘却的状态。形成这种状态的原因是多方面的。对历史背景和语境不作具体的 分析﹐就难以把握马克思恩格斯对于社会公正问题的真实态度和精神实质﹐ 甚至会 得出他们不仅没有关于社会公正的理论﹐ 而且反对和拒斥从社会公正角度讨论问题 的结论。马克思主义作为无产阶级认识和改造世界、求得自身解放和人类解放的世 界观和方法论﹐ 是真理与价值相统一的理论﹐ 也只有从科学向度与价值向度辩证统 一的角度﹐ 才可能对作为价值之一种表现的公正问题作出合理的理解。公正既是一 种价值观念﹐ 具有评价标准的功能﹐ 也是实际的价值(包括利益、机会、权利等)分 配的一种状态﹐ 其中会涉及自由与平等的矛盾、形式公正与实质公正的矛盾、一般 与特殊的差别、平等与效率的抵牾、公正与不公正的对立﹐ 等等﹐ 只有运用辩证思 维的方法﹐ 才能对其复杂性获得正确的认识。

关键词: 社会公正 公正观 价值立场

In the wide ranging discussion of social equity issues, the theories of contemporary Western thinkers such as Rawls, Nozick, Hayek and MacIntyre are repeatedly cited and expounded. By contrast, for various reasons, classical writers like Marx and Engels have been overlooked or even forgotten. Without a concrete analysis of their historical background and context, it is hard to grasp the true attitude and spiritual essence of the views of Marx and Engels on social equity. We might even conclude not only that they had no theory of social equity but that they opposed and rejected approaching questions from this angle. As a world view and methodology enabling the proletariat to know and transform the world and liberate themselves and mankind, Marxism is a theory that unites truth and value. A rational understanding of the issue of equity as an expression of value is only possible when the dimensions of science and value are dialectically combined. On the one hand, equity is a value concept that functions as a standard for evaluation; on the other, it refers to an actual state of values distribution (including interests, opportunities and rights) that inevitably involves the contradiction between freedom and equality and between formal and substantive equity, the difference between the general and the specific, the conflict between equality and efficiency, the opposition between equity and inequity and so on. Only a dialectical mode of thinking can ensure a correct understanding of the complexity of social equity issues.     

Malaysia's outward FDI: The effects of market size and government policy

This paper extends the empirical literature of Malaysia's outward FDI (OFDI) by considering the impact of foreign market size and home international reserves using multivariate cointegration and error-correction modeling techniques. The empirical results reveal that there is a positive long-run relationship between Malaysia's OFDI and its key determinants, viz. foreign market size, real effective exchange rate, international reserves and trade openness. The main findings suggest that apart from the market-seeking incentive and the adoption of outward-oriented policies, the Malaysian government could also encourage OFDI by implementing liberal policy on capital outflows. On the basis of these findings, we draw some policy implications for the country's economic development and the internationalization of Malaysian firms in the era of globalization.     

Commodity buffer stock redux: The role of International Cocoa Organization in prices and incomes

This paper utilizes linear demand and supply models, with additive independent shocks, to derive producer price and income variances of a typical commodity during and after a buffer stock control. It proceeds to use the models to evaluate International Cocoa Organization's (ICCO) Buffer Stock's decision to purchase excess stock from the market a floor price and re-sell it, in periods of low supply, at the ceiling price. The results show that cocoa producer prices and incomes were more stable during periods of ICCO buffer stock intervention than after the demise of the buffer stock. The results further indicate that stock-buying operations induced greater stability in producer incomes than buying stock-selling operations.     

The impact of social security reform on the labor market: The case of Colombia

This paper simulates the effects of three increasingly bolder reforms in the Colombian social protection system: the equalization of salaried and self-employed labor contributions; the removal of payroll taxes, parafiscales; and the complete delinking of social protection benefits from labor status. We collect nationally representative information concerning individual willingness to pay for several packages of social security benefits; identify and quantify – for the first time – three specific distortions caused by existing social security and social assistance systems; and simulate the gains that social protection reforms would bring about in terms of reduced labor distortions. We find that workers in Colombia, regardless of occupation, have a very similar willingness to pay for the full insurance package – below 20% of their labor earnings – and very similar valuation of social protection services – about 50% below par. Labor distortions are large, as expected from very high labor costs, but we quantify an implicit formality tax and informality subsidy ranging between 2 and 27 percent of different representative workers’ earnings. Critically, the long-discussed reforms in Colombia – including the elimination of parafiscales – will not reduce substantially the multiple distortions in its labor market.     

Welfare Chauvinism in Populist Radical Right Platforms: The Role of Redistributive Justice Principles

Welfare chauvinism has become an important element in the agenda of the populist radical right. This article proposes a novel argument to explain variation in the strength of welfare chauvinist appeals across social policy programmes. It theorizes that the redistributive justice principles (equity, equality, and need) that underpin a social programme matter. Equality‐ and need‐based programmes are more likely to contradict a nativist worldview in principle or practice, whereas equity‐based schemes are less vulnerable to welfare chauvinistic appeals. As a consequence, welfare chauvinism should be targeted at social policies that provide universal or means‐tested benefits. Insurance‐based systems are more likely to be immune. This argument is tested through a qualitative content analysis of populist radical right election manifestos in four West European democracies. The results show that insurance‐based systems (pensions, unemployment) are less likely to attract welfare chauvinism, whereas universal healthcare and means‐tested social assistance programmes are more prone to draw nativist appeals. Universal family allowances, however, are less likely to attract welfare chauvinism than predicted by the theory.     

地下“六合彩”在农村社会的运作逻辑：关系与信任的运用——洋村田野研究.

本文根据在洋村长期的田野研究获得的资料,用关系和信任的理论,从微观的视角来揭示地下“六合彩”在农村社会的运行逻辑：1、关系是地下“六合彩”蔓延的脉络;2、“自己人”和“外人”有着不同的交易规则;3、关系信任是地下“六合彩”交易的根本保障。最后,笔者得出了以下结论：1、地下“六合彩”是一种集体越轨的产物;2、工具情感关系是农村社会转型时期的主导关系类型;3、目前农村社会中关系信任受到了削弱,而制度信任尚未建立。     

The international trade in automobiles: Explaining short-run changes in the import share of the United States market, 1979–1981

This paper examines the underlying causes for the rapid rise of the import share of the U.S. automobile market in the 1979 to 1981 time frame. Using data on the import share by state for the 1975–1979 period, a logit model is developed explaining movements in the import share. The principal purpose is to demonstrate that the rapid growth of the import share was due to a unique set of short-run factors such as constrained U.S. small car production capacity and exceptional consumer preference for fuel efficient automobiles. The sensitivity of the import share to changes in different factors is examined. The article concludes that U.S. policy makers concerned with the long-run viability of the U.S. automobile industry should discriminate between changes in import penetration caused by short-run factors and those caused by a secular deterioration of the U.S. comparative advantage in automobile production.