Population Policy Dilemmas in Europe at the Dawn of the Twenty‐First Century

The article discusses issues raised by persistent below‐replacement fertility in Europe. The continent's demographic predicament is highlighted by comparing age structures and relative population sizes between populations in and outside Europe—such as those of Russia and Yemen and those of an enlarged 25‐country European Union and a 25‐country hinterland to the EU in North Africa and West Asia—during the past 50 years and prospectively up to 2050, based on United Nations estimates and projections. Potential geopolitical aspects of the population shifts are considered. European policy responses to them are found largely wanting. With respect to the key demographic variable, fertility, explicit pronatalism is rejected by most European governments. A set of policy measures that commands wide support, with the hoped‐for side effect of raising birth rates, seeks to make women's participation in the formal labor force compatible with childrearing. The effectiveness of such measures, however, is likely to be limited. Continued below‐replacement fertility, higher immigration from outside Europe, negative population growth, and loss of demographic weight within the global population are safe predictions for the Europe of the twenty‐first century.     

A Population Policy Rationale for the Twenty‐First Century

I propose that the primary goal of twenty‐first‐century population policies should be to strengthen the human resource base for national and global sustainable development. I discuss the shortcomings of the three dominant twentieth‐century population policy rationales: acceptance of replacement‐level fertility as a demographic goal; realizing a “demographic dividend” from the changing age structure; and filling the “unmet need” for family planning. I demonstrate that in all three cases the explicit incorporation of education into the model changes the picture and makes female education a key population policy priority. Population policies under this new rationale could be viewed as public human resource management. I argue that 20 years after the Cairo ICPD the international community needs a new rationale for population policies in the context of sustainable development and that a focus on human capital development, in particular education and health, is the most promising approach.     

Reactions of Developing‐Country Elites to International Population Policy

The authors examine the global diffusion of international population policy, which they consider a cultural item. The process of cultural diffusion is often seen as spontaneous: items of Western culture are in demand because they are universally attractive. Yet cultural flows may also be directed, they may be unattractive to their intended recipients, and their acceptance may depend on persuasion and material incentives. The authors consider the range of responses of national elites to the new population policy adopted by the United Nations at Cairo in 1994. Strongly influenced by feminists, the Cairo Program of Action promotes gender equity and reproductive health and demotes previous concerns with population growth. The data are interviews with representatives of governmental and nongovernmental organizations involved in population and health in five developing countries. To interpret the interviews, the authors draw on two theoretical frameworks. The first emphasizes the attractiveness of new cultural items and the creation of a normative consensus about their value. The second emphasizes differentials in power and resources among global actors and argues that the diffusion of cultural items can be directed by powerful donor states. Interviews in Bangladesh, Ghana, Jordan, Malawi, and Senegal portray a mixed reception to Cairo: enthusiastic embrace of certain aspects of the Cairo policy by some members of the national elite and a realistic assessment of donor power by virtually all. Strategies of rhetoric and action appear to be aimed at maintaining and directing the flows of donor funds.     

Abortion,Family Planning,and Population Policy: Prospects for the Common‐Ground Approach

For the past several decades those engaged in shaping the Program of Action documents at international conferences on population have muted their voices when the topic of abortion has been raised. In a desire to side‐step entanglement in a bitter debate over the morality of abortion, great care has been taken to define “family planning” in ways that explicitly exclude abortion. The “common‐ground” approach to treating abortion can be summarized in two directives found in all contemporary international population documents: “in no case should abortion be promoted as a method of family planning”; and all governments should work “to reduce the recourse to abortion through expanded and improved family‐planning services.” This article has three goals: first, to examine the appropriateness of these directives with respect to what is currently known about the relationship between abortion, family planning, and population policy; second, to trace how this “contraception‐only” definition of family planning became de rigueur at international population conferences; and third, to discuss the prospects for the emergence of a more appropriate “common‐ground” approach to abortion and population policy.     

Population planning and change in Singapore

Population planning in Singapore has always been linked to economic planning. Lacking natural resources on an island 536 sq. kms. in size, the physical carrying capacity was not large so that the government had to resort to careful economic planning to overcome this constraint. The “stop at 2” population policy of 1965–87 was designed to support the economic plans to improve the quality of life of the people. Restraint of population growth was promoted as a necessary move serving the common good of Singaporeans as the country struggled in her early years of independence to build a nation. By 1983, however, Singapore switched from being antinatal to being pronatal. The environmental determinism school that influenced population planning gave way to environmental possibilism in which man is the main agent determining his own actions in the population-environment relationship. Technology has allowed the leadership of Singapore to make use of the global economy as its hinterland. By concentrating on the high-end service sector, such as mercantile banking or currency markets, Singapore has used the new information age of computers to take advantage of the changing world market. The “quality” population required to do this job is missing, thus the “have 3 or more if you can afford it” policy.     

The World's Changing Human Capital Stock: Multi‐State Population Projections by Educational Attainment

This research note presents the first global population projections by educational attainment using methods of multi‐state population projection. The educational composition of the population by age and sex and educational fertility differentials are estimated for 13 world regions, and alternative scenarios are presented to the year 2030. One of these scenarios assumes constant educational transition rates and the other assumes that all regions reach Northern American levels of enrollment rates by 2030. The strong momentum or, as the case may be, inertia in the transformation of the educational composition of a population, seen in the results, arises because education is mostly acquired at a young age. The sex bias in the educational composition, especially evident in some developing countries, is unlikely to disappear soon. China has made remarkable progress in improving educational enrollment and as a consequence by 2030 is expected to have more educated people of working age than Europe and Northern America together.     

Bangladesh: National Population Policy approved

The National Population Council of Bangladesh set a policy to reduce the national growth rate from 2.8 to 2% by 1980, and increase the frequency of family planning use by eligible couples from 4.7 to 12% in 1978 and 20% in 1980. If the replacement level can be reached by 1985, then the population of Bangladesh will stabilize at 121 million. The orientation of family planning programs will be switched from clinics to a national mobilization of programs. All methods of contraception will be used throughout the policy implementation.     

Evolutionary Approaches to Population: Implications for Research and Policy

Evolutionary theory is becoming an increasingly important perspective in many social science disciplines. Ironically, the impact of evolutionary theory has been minimal in the study of human population although among the social sciences it is in demography and related fields that evolutionary approaches would be most appropriate. In this paper I review varying perspectives within evolutionary theory, proceeding to a brief review of theoretical paradigms within the field of demography. I then examine how evolutionary perspectives can interface with these theories, showing how evolutionary approaches elaborate, strengthen, and unify these outlooks. Lastly, I explore the implications of evolutionary approaches for research and policy.     

The European Umbrella Organisation for Population Policy

Population and Environment -     

Population Research Briefs in Population Research and Policy Review

Population Research and Policy Review - This editorial is aimed at promoting the new series of Research Briefs in Population Research and Policy Review. These shorter, more data-centric articles...     

中国计划生育政策的回顾与展望——基于公共政策周期理论视角分析

计划生育政策作为中国的一项基本国策,引发中外社会各界的争议与关注。公共政策周期理论强调,公共政策经历问题认定、政策出台,再经过执行、评估、监控、调整等环节,最终归于终结。作为一项对人口、经济、社会发展产生重大影响的公共政策,在生育政策实施过程中,进行政策监控及政策评估,对于探究政策效果及影响,正确决定政策去向及实现决策的科学化、民主化具有重要意义。本文试图在公共政策周期理论视角下,采用政策评估的科学逻辑及系统方法对生育政策进行综合全面的分析评估,并从当今中国实际国情出发,探究政策的调整方向,提出政策调整及改进的建议。本文认为,现行计划生育政策的目标已实现,中国的客观环境发生了重大变化,计划生育政策的最终目的是建立一个有利于经济社会发展的人口环境,统筹考虑政策调整、有序完善现行生育政策,促进人口长期均衡发展已正当适时。     

Policy View: Immigration,Population Policy,and the Sierra Club

Population and Environment -     

The One‐Child Policy in Shanghai: Acceptance and Internalization

China's one‐child policy is a major example of social engineering and the subject of human rights concerns. Given the significance of the policy, it is important to ascertain the attitudes of Chinese citizens. We conducted interviews in 2003 with residents of Shanghai who were of childbearing age either at the policy's inception or at the time of the interview. Our respondents, who were generally well educated, did not perceive the policy as extraordinary when it was introduced; resignation to one more intrusive government regulation was mixed with understanding and even approval of the policy. People talked about the political and social context, demographic concerns, family economic strategy, and the results of government‐engineered gender equality. Among the young interviewees, the context has changed from a population striving to get by under tight government control to a much richer population that is upwardly mobile and perceives their local government to be basically beneficial. The one‐child family is considered normal; few are still concerned with the policy per se, while others see it as unnecessary. The one‐child policy seems to reflect Shanghainese current preferences; its status as a legal requirement may be largely irrelevant.     

Book Review The Dilemmas of Laissez-Faire Population Policy in Capitalist Society: When the Invisible Hand Controls Reproduction. Marc Linder. Westport,CT: Greenwood Press, 1997

Population and Environment -     

Cultural Diversity and Population Policy in Nigeria

Nigeria's ambitious population policy, adopted in 1988, had its origins in the international population and development thinking of the time, set out in documents such as the World Population Plan of Action and the Kilimanjaro Programme of Action. The policy has had at most a modest effect in curbing the country's high fertility. This failure, it is argued, stems from the policy's implicit assumption of a single, monolithic cultural reality and its disregard of male reproductive motivation. Belief systems in Nigeria are extraordinarily diverse in detail but share a common interest in the fertility of crops, livestock, and people. Patterns of social organization are similarly varied. For an effective population policy, the government needs to find ways of incorporating distinct elements of the cultures of the different ethnic groups, leveraging rather than suppressing the country's cultural diversity.     

社会政策与日本人口的发展

社会政策已成为很多国家调整国内人口发展的重要手段。面对总和生育率多年来不断下降的趋势,日本政府自1994年开始出台各种有利于人们生儿育女的社会人口政策。这些政策在目标、影响人群、法律效力及涉及政府部门方面有所不同。就目前来看,一些改善育儿环境、间接提高受孕几率的政策是有效的,但这些政策对最终提高出生水平的效果却不理想。在任何人口和文化中,人们生育观念的转变,无论是多生还是少生,都是一个长期的过程。     

论生育政策与中国人口老龄化

中国人口老龄化主要是由生育率下降引起的.人口生育率急速的下降与我国严格的生育政策紧密相联.但计划生育政策不是中国人口老化的根本原因,是使人口老化加快的主要原因.面对世纪之交的中国人口的低生育率、低惯性增长和过快的人口老化的新形势,有必要重新审视我们的现行生育政策并予以调整.作者主张,从现行追求低生育率控制人口数量的生育政策宜调整为低生育率与调控结构并举的生育政策.