Wahlbeteiligung im Lebensverlauf

This empirical investigation attempts to answer the question whether the change in voter turnout at the German general elections is related to cohort specific voting behavior of political generations, also taking into account age and period effects. Furthermore, it is asked whether the decline of voter turnout after the 1972 German general election is a statistical artefact of official statistics. Both questions are investigated with retrospective life history data about voting behavior of individuals from several birth cohorts. It is analyzed that the voter turnout has really declined in the 1980s because of the increased number of determined non-voters. There is evidence that the changes of the voting behavior of younger individuals in successive political generations results in the social change of the general voter turnout. While the effects of the citizens’ age on the voter turnout are minimal for the whole period between 1953 and 1987, the impact of period effects are less important for the historical change of voter turnout as often assumed.     

Klasseneinflüsse auf das Wahlverhalten und die Wahlbeteiligung

The thesis of a declining impact of social class is widely accepted in the social sciences. A central tenet of this thesis is that in particular the impact of social class on voting has declined. Despite a plethora of empirical studies concerning this issue the mechanisms leading to this postulated decline have been relatively less explored. The current paper investigates the thesis of a substitution between class effects on voting and class effects on turnout. Under study are the United States of America and the Federal Republic of Germany. Using multinomial logit and logistic regression models for both countries a decline in class voting could be observed, but class effects on turnout increased in both countries. More specifically, the propensity to vote relatively to the non-manual classes has declined among the manual classes. In conjunction with the observation that class voting is higher among the manual classes this result supports the theory that the decline of class voting is due to an increasing political frustration within the manual classes. This reasoning suggests a substitution between class effects on voting and turnout.     

Informatization, voter turnout and income inequality

In recent years, voter turnout has been decreasing in most industrial countries, and about 40% of all electors abstain from voting. This may affect income inequality and the GDP growth rate through a redistribution policy determined by majority voting. In this paper, we explore the reasons for this continuing decrease in voter turnout and assess its social costs. We conclude that informatization lowers voter turnout by generating an information overload, and that a decrease in voter turnout lowers GDP growth by limiting income redistribution.      

Costly voting when both information and preferences differ: is turnout too high or too low?

We study a model of costly voting over two alternatives, where agents’ preferences are determined by both (i) a private preference in favour of one alternative e.g. candidates’ policies, and (ii) heterogeneous information in the form of noisy signals about a commonly valued state of the world e.g. candidate competence. We show that depending on the level of the personal bias (weight on private preference), voting is either according to private preferences or according to signals. When voting takes place according to private preferences, there is an unique equilibrium with inefficiently high turnout. In contrast, when voting takes place according to signals, turnout is locally too low. Multiple Pareto-ranked voting equilibria may exist and in particular, compulsory voting may Pareto dominate voluntary voting. Moreover, an increase in personal bias can cause turnout to rise or fall, and an increase in the accuracy of information may cause a switch to voting on the basis of signals and thus lower turnout, even though it increases welfare. This is a substantially revised version of Department of Economics University of Warwick Working Paper 670, “Information Aggregation, Costly Voting and Common Values”, January 2003. We would like to thank B. Dutta, M. Morelli, C. Perrroni, V. Bhaskar and seminar participants at Warwick, Nottingham and the ESRC Workshop in Game Theory for their comments. We would also like to thank the editor and an anonymous referee for their comments.     

Political Incorporation Among Immigrants from Ten Areas of Origin: The Persistence of Source Country Effects

Using four years of data from the Current Population Survey, this study examines the effect of country of origin on two types of political incorporation among immigrants ‐ citizenship and voting ‐ in the contemporary United States. Results show that country of origin is a statistically significant predictor of citizenship acquisition for nine of ten immigrant groups and for voter turnout for five of ten groups, net of income, education, length of residence in the United States, and other demographic characteristics. The findings also suggest that country of origin matters as much for how it interacts with other key characteristics, such as education and income, as for the independent influence it exerts on these two political processes. For immigrants from most countries under examination, lower levels of education and income discourage citizenship acquisition. An exception is found among Britons, for whom lower levels of income encourages naturalizing. In the voting process, higher levels of education encourage voter turnout for most immigrant groups. Though country of origin has a greater effect on naturalizing than on voting, it significantly impacts both types of political incorporation. The differing effects of country of origin and other demographic factors on naturalizing and voting, respectively, suggest the two processes are distinct from one another.     

Labor Schweiz: Vergleichende Wahlbeteiligungsforschung bei Kantonalen Parlamentswahlen

How to explain different levels in voting turnout among the Swiss sub-national units? To answer this question, this study presents the first comparative and macro-quantitative investigation of the voting participation in parliamentary elections of the Swiss Cantons between 1982 und 2004. The paper evaluates political institutions, socio-economic factors, and cultural foundations. According to our statistical inquiry we present four main determinants of cross-cantonal variance in voting turnout: mandatory voting laws, electoral thresholds, the coverage of partisan membership, and a culture of Catholicism. Moreover, the estimations reveal that there is no systematic influence of patterns of direct democracy on the voting participation in parliamentary cantonal elections.     

Good Excuses: Understanding Who Votes With An Improved Turnout Question

Utilizing studies which validate voter turnout, previous researchershave been able to identify a strong tendency for individualsto report voting when they in fact did not. In this article,we assess the effectiveness of a new turnout question on reducingvoter over-reporting in the National Election Study. Providingrespondents with socially acceptable excuses for not voting,we found that this alternate question significantly reducesthe over-reporting of turnout in the 2002 National ElectionStudy by about 8 percentage points. Moreover, our analysis revealsthat with the new question wording, estimates of the turnoutrate for those usually thought to be the least likely to voteare considerably lower than estimates using the traditionalquestion. Thus, not only did the experiment work to significantlyreduce over-reporting, the new question provides deeper insightsinto the voting behavior of the American electorate that hasimplications for both scholars and reformers.     

Reconsidering Explanations for Regional Convergence in Voter Registration and Turnout in the United States, 1956–20001

In the United States, voter turnout rates have been declining for the last 4 decades; however, this pattern differs substantially by region. Southern states have actually seen a fairly dramatic increase in turnout since the 1950s and currently the South and non‐South have almost identical rates of voter registration and turnout. Using a series of Heckman probit models, which examine voting as a two‐step process of registering and casting a vote, we systematically investigate differences in rates of registering and voting across regions and test explanations for regional convergence over time. Using data from the American National Election Studies (1956–2000), we find that regional convergence in voter registration is primarily due to the removal of formal and informal barriers to registration and voting in the South and declining efforts to mobilize potential voters in the non‐South. In addition, we find some fairly distinct differences in which predictors are important to each stage of the voting process; for example, race is a better predictor of registering to vote than voting. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these results.     

Asian Americans and Voting Participation: Comparing Racial and Ethnic Differences in Recent U.S. Elections

This research assesses the significance of race and ethnicity in the participation of Asian Americans in recent U.S. elections. It reviews the major characteristics of the nonwhite, multiethnic population in recent census surveys and discusses the necessity for voting behavior research to address effects of international migration on eligibility issues in voting participation. Results from analyzing U.S. Current Population Survey Voter Supplement files, 1994–2000, indicate that Asian Americans' apparent deficit in voting participation among voting‐age persons can be reduced, removed, or even reversed when restricting analyses only to eligible persons. Multivariate analyses controlling for a set of institutional, contextual, and individual factors show that being Asian and foreign born may have the net effect of increasing voting registration, while being U.S. born and Asian may have the contrary effect, compared to non‐Hispanic whites of comparable background. Nativity is not significant in impacting turnout among registered Asians as a whole, but U.S.‐born Asians are less likely to turn out compared to their white counterparts. Among other findings, being foreign born may enhance the registration likelihood for Chinese, Korean, and Asian Indian American citizens and the turnout likelihood of registered Korean Americans.     

Age cohort voting effects in the breakdown of single-party rule

This article examines age cohort voting differentiation in the breakdown of the Leninist regimes in terms of the effects of rapid social change. The strong relationship found between age and conservative voting and the disproportionate vote of youth for all types of change-oriented parties in the “first” competitive elections (1989/1990) in Belarus, Bulgaria, Romania, Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Moscow is a product of cohort–period interaction with youth at the vanguard of social change. Taken together, a dramatic period effect (the rapid introduction of economic and political change), the skewing of younger groups in favor of more rapid social change, the generational socialization of the aged under communist values, and a greater investment of the elderly in the status quo explain age cohort voting in the breakdown of Leninism.     

Approval voting and positional voting methods: Inference,relationship, examples

Approval voting is the voting method recently adopted by the Society for Social Choice and Welfare. Positional voting methods include the famous plurality, antiplurality, and Borda methods. We extend the inference framework of Tsetlin and Regenwetter (2003) from majority rule to approval voting and all positional voting methods. We also establish a link between approval voting and positional voting methods whenever Falmagne et al.s (1996) size-independent model of approval voting holds: In all such cases, approval voting mimics some positional voting method. We illustrate our inference framework by analyzing approval voting and ranking data, with and without the assumption of the size-independent model. For many of the existing data, including the Society for Social Choice and Welfare election analyzed by Brams and Fishburn (2001) and Saari (2001), low turnout implies that inferences drawn from such elections carry low (statistical) confidence. Whenever solid inferences are possible, we find that, under certain statistical assumptions, approval voting tends to agree with positional voting methods, and with Borda, in particular.Michel Regenwetter thanks the National Science Foundation for funding this research through NSF grant SBR 97-30076. Both authors thank the Fuqua School of Business for financially supporting their collaboration. Most of this research was done while Regenwetter was a faculty member at Fuqua. We thank Prof. Steven Brams for his valuable comments as a discussant of a previous version of this paper, given at the 2002 Public Choice meeting, and Prof. Donald Saari for his helpful comments in conversations and on another draft. We also thank the editor in charge and a referee for their valuable comments. Tsetlin acknowledges the support of the Centre for Decision Making and Risk Analysis at INSEAD.     

Voting barriers and solutions: the experiences of people with disabilities during the Dutch national election in 2017

Exercising the right to vote at elections is frequently denied to people with disabilities. In this study, we examined the voting behaviour of individuals with physical or learning impairments and the barriers they encountered during the national elections in 2017 in the Netherlands. A survey design was chosen to allow large-scale questioning of both target groups. Over 90% of people with physical impairments voted and respondents found that voting was accessible. Voter turnout among people with learning impairments was much lower (46%). They experienced difficulty to prepare themselves and at the polling station. The Netherlands seems well on the way to achieving an inclusive environment for people with physical impairments. Recommendations are given about accessibility for all and for exploring alternative methods of voting such as proxy voting and tailoring information and procedures to the needs of people with learning impairments.     

Conditions for Exercising Residents’ Voting Rights in Long-Term Care Residences: A Prospective Multicenter Study

To assess voting conditions in long-term care settings, we conducted a multicenter survey after the 2009 European elections in France. A questionnaire about voting procedures and European elections was proposed in 146 out of 884 randomized facilities. Sixty-four percent of facilities answered the questionnaire. Four percent of residents voted (national turnout: 40%), by proxy (58%) or at polling places (42%). Abstention related to procedural issues was reported in 32% of facilities. Sixty-seven percent of establishments had voting procedures, and 53% declared that they assessed residents’ capacity to vote. Assistance was proposed to residents for voter registration, for proxy voting, and for voting at polling places, respectively, in 33%, 87%, and 80% of facilities. This survey suggests that residents may be disenfranchised and that more progress should be made to protect the voting rights of residents in long-term care facilities.     

A TEST FOR THE EFFECT OF CONFORMITY ON CRIME RATES USING VOTER TURNOUT

Using voter turnout to measure conformity, this article examines whether conformity with social norms moderates the crime rate in the United States at the state and county levels. If people are fairly consistent in their response to the perceived local degree of conformity with norms about voting and against crime, analysis predicts a unique quadratic relationship between reported crime rates and voter turnout. A pooled multivariate regression analysis of state crime rates for several index crimes in 1960, 1970, and 1980 confirms the predicted relationship, as do county-level analyses of the violent crime rate in 1985 and 1991. This method might also be used to assess the effect of social conformity on other social choices.     

Response Validity in Surveysof Voting Behavior

This paper presents the results of a project which validatedthe reported registration and voting behavior of respondentsin a national election study. The accuracy of reported votingbehavior in the 1976 general election is assessed in terms ofthe demographic characteristics of the respondents to the Centerfor Political Studies National Election Study as well as theextent of their participation in a survey panel begun in 1972.Increased levels of registration and turnout are observed inassociation with the number of interviews in which respondentsparticipated, and three alternative social psychological modelsof the effects of preelection interviews are evaluated. Althoughthe interview apparently served as a stimulus to voting, neithera model associated with self-concept theory nor alienation theoryappears to explain the phenomenon adequately. The intervieweffect is significant and appears to be cumulative, indicatingthat researchers usingthe survey method with panel designs shouldbe sitive to the effects of their method on the behavior whichthey are tryingto measure.     

EFFECTS OF WELFARE REFORM ON WOMEN'S VOTING PARTICIPATION

This study investigates the effects of welfare reform in the United States in the 1990s on voting among low‐income women. Using the November Current Population Surveys with the added Voting and Registration Supplement for the years 1990 through 2004 and exploiting changes in welfare policy across states and over time, we estimate the causal effects of welfare reform on women's voting registration and voting participation during the period in which welfare reform unfolded. During this time period, voter turnout was decreasing in the United States. We find robust evidence that welfare reform led to smaller declines in voting (about 3 to 4 percentage points, which translates to about 10% relative to the baseline mean) for women who were exposed to welfare reform compared to several different comparison groups of similar women who were much less exposed. The robust findings suggest that welfare reform had prosocial effects on civic participation, as characterized by voting. The effects were largely confined to presidential elections, were stronger in Democratic than Republican states, were stronger in states with stronger work incentive policies, and appeared to operate through employment, education, and income. (JEL D72, H53, I38, J21)     

The Citizen's Role and Voter Turnout

Abstract

A typological approach to the study of citizen orientations toward politics in the United States requires that the basic concepts used to create the typology have clear empirical and theoretical meaning. This paper attempts to reconceptualize the typology originally proposed by Gamson and Paige. Using national survey data from 1968 through 1976, we propose that psychological involvement in politics and political trust are two major dimensions which are useful for describing types of citizen orientations. The evidence indicates a basic change in the American citizenry during recent years. A political culture dominated by quiescent (trusting but uninvolved) citizens has become an alienated culture. The explanatory powers of the typology are tested with the simple case of voting turnout. Each of four types of citizens demonstrates stable levels of turnout.     

LITTLE WHITE LIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCE MODELS CORRELATED RESPONSE ERRORS IN A PANEL STUDY OF VOTING

One interpretation for the common survey finding that the backgroundcharacteristics of vote overreporters resemble those of actualvoters is that misreporters usually vote. This hypothesis—thatmisreporters regularly voted in earlier elections—is testedwith data from the 1972–74–76 Michigan ElectionPanel. It receives no support: the 1972 and 1974 validated turnoutof the 1976 misreporters was very low. Moreover, misreportingwas a fairly stable respondent characteristic: misreportingabout an election in one interview was correlated with misreportingabout the remaining elections in each of the other two interviews.A comparison of regressions predicting turnout using the validatedreports versus the self-reports shows that the respondent errorscan distort conclusions about the correlates of voting. Forexample, controlling for three other variables, education wasrelated to self-reported voting but not to validated voting.Here, as well as in surveys of other socially desirable or undesirableissues, respondent self-reports may bias survey data in favorof commonsense models of the world.     

Voting in professional associations: The case of the American sociological association revisited

Who votes in ASA elections? This article examines data on voter turnout from two recent presidential contests of the American Sociological Association in an analysis of the determinants of election participation. Extending the 1981 Ridgeway and Moore study of voting dynamics in the ASA, we hypothesize that intraorganizational networks and particular demongraphic characteristics link ASA members to the discipline in a manner analogous to the way such factors operate in the national electorate. On the basis of data compiled from 1985 and 1986 ASA election returns, we find that network factors are the most salient determinants of voting behavior. We conclude that those organizational ties that effectively link members, however directly or indirectly, to the larger Association are the most predictive of propensity to vote.