固定资产投资价格调查方法制度探索

市场经济不断发展 ,竞争机制不断延伸 ,建筑业市场出现了新情况 ,现行的方法制度与之不尽适应。本文从调查价格、调查对象、调查时间、计算方法等方面对现行的固定资产投资价格调查方法制度进行了探索     

GDP核算方法的比较与选择——数据误差引起的思考

文章探讨比较了GDP核算的不同方法,分析了现行生产法所存在的问题,认为项目简约、能够与会计资料较好衔接的收入法在纠正数据误差方面有其优越性,可以作为GDP核算方法的优先选择或者作为现行生产法的校验方法.     

从问题中看改革方向

一、现行统计制度方法的主要问题我国现行的统计方法是在产品经济和全面调查的基础上逐步形成的,40年来基本上没有多大变化.随着我国经济的改革开放,产品经济逐步向有计划的商品经济过渡,现有的统计制度方法已经越来越难以适应形势的变化.从现行统计制度方法所存在的种种问题中,可以充分看到改革现行统计制度方法的必要性和紧迫性.     

对实行统计一套表的几点思考

切实减轻基层负担,推进统计方法制度改革是顺应时代需求的重大课题。本文通过对现行统计体制与调查方法制度存在的主要弊端,实行统计一套表的意义、历史回顾、实施办法、指标设置进行分析,提出了改革现行报表制度、实行统计一套表不失为一条可供借鉴的新途径。     

价格指数新问题解析

随着经济的发展,现行的价格指数已经不能满足现实问题的分析的要求,我们应该结合实际情况,改进一下现行的价格指数的编制方法。     

改进现行造船价格统计调查方法的设想

近年来,舟山船舶修造业突飞猛进.本文通过分析研究我国现行造船价格统计方法,指出造船行业的特殊性及现行价格统计中存在的主要问题,借鉴目前在国内得到航运业和造船业界普遍认同的两项造船价格指数编制思路,提出改进现行造船价格统计方法一些设想,期待改进和完善造船价格统计方法制度.     

关于改进工业发展速度计算方法的讨论

今年以来,国家统计局陆续组织召开了几次有关大专院校、研究单位、经济管理部门和政府统计部门的专家学者参加的座谈会,讨论了改进我国现行工业发展速度计算方法的问题。大部分与会者认为,现行的根据全国统一编制的工业产品不变价格计算工业总产值来计算工业发展速度的方法应该改进。在研究探索     

物价统计中运用掐头去尾平均法的探讨

现在,在文艺、体育等比赛活动中,流行着一种新的评分方法——掐头去尾平均法。每当一位演员或运动员完成了一个规定项目后,主持人在综合了所有评委们的评分后,当众宣布:“去掉一个最高分,去掉一个最低分,平均得分××分。”比赛得分作为度量演员或运动员水平的代表值,无疑是一种统计平均数。     

像音乐家一样把统计分析写出『精致感』——从第十三届中国音乐金钟奖比赛谈起

落幕不久的第十三届中国音乐金钟奖,是与戏剧梅花奖、电视金鹰奖、电影金鸡奖并列的国家级艺术大奖.赛场上,选手们表现精彩;赛场下,评委点评到位.评委会主任张也表示,第一名张明旭具有鲜明的个人风格,综合能力强,台风稳健,音乐表现成熟;评委阎维文表示,选出的选手一定是综合实力很突出、综合素质全面的人才.     

完善住户调查工作的思考

一、现行住户调查方法存在的问题1.住户调查对象的范围需重新界定。我国现行的住户调查包括城镇住户和农村住户调查两大块,从     

Forecasting obesity trends in England

Summary.  Forecasts of trends in obesity in England for 2010 are produced by treating the available data, which contain the proportions of the population, categorized by age and sex, falling into different body mass index ranges, as compositional data sets, so that the implicit simplex restrictions are automatically satisfied. Forecasts are calculated by using linear trend models for the log-ratio transformations and are accompanied by prediction regions. The advantages of treating data on proportions compositionally are emphasized and compared with forecasts that have been obtained by ignoring this restriction.     

Link-tracing sampling with an initial sequential sample of sites: Estimating the size of a hidden human population

We proposed a modification to the variant of link-tracing sampling suggested by Félix-Medina and Thompson [M.H. Félix-Medina, S.K. Thompson, Combining cluster sampling and link-tracing sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations, Journal of Official Statistics 20 (2004) 19–38] that allows the researcher to have certain control of the final sample size, precision of the estimates or other characteristics of the sample that the researcher is interested in controlling. We achieve this goal by selecting an initial sequential sample of sites instead of an initial simple random sample of sites as those authors suggested. We estimate the population size by means of the maximum likelihood estimators suggested by the above-mentioned authors or by the Bayesian estimators proposed by Félix-Medina and Monjardin [M.H. Félix-Medina, P.E. Monjardin, Combining link-tracing sampling and cluster sampling to estimate the size of hidden populations: A Bayesian-assisted approach, Survey Methodology 32 (2006) 187–195]. Variances are estimated by means of jackknife and bootstrap estimators as well as by the delta estimators proposed in the two above-mentioned papers. Interval estimates of the population size are obtained by means of Wald and bootstrap confidence intervals. The results of an exploratory simulation study indicate good performance of the proposed sampling strategy.     

Computational methods for local regression

Local regression is a nonparametric method in which the regression surface is estimated by fitting parametric functions locally in the space of the predictors using weighted least squares in a moving fashion similar to the way that a time series is smoothed by moving averages. Three computational methods for local regression are presented. First, fast surface fitting and evaluation is achieved by building ak-d tree in the space of the predictors, evaluating the surface at the corners of the tree, and then interpolating elsewhere by blending functions. Second, surfaces are made conditionally parametric in any proper subset of the predictors by a simple alteration of the weighting scheme. Third degree-of-freedom quantities that would be extremely expensive to compute exactly are approximated, not by numerical methods, but through a statistical model that predicts the quantities from the trace of the hat matrix, which can be computed easily.     

Spectral analysis of combustion noise and flame pattern recognition

In many situations, flame patterns in a combustion chamber cannot be observed directly by using an electronic or optical probe. However, an experienced engineer can identify the burning process by listening to the noise that it generates. In this paper, we study acoustic characteristics of turbulent impinging flames by using spectral analysis and statistical pattern recognition. By experimenting with the ignition method, different flame patterns were generated in a laboratory. We find that each flame pattern can be characterized effectively by using the power spectrum of the noise and can be identified by using this information alone.     

Dynamic generalized linear models with application to environmental epidemiology

Summary. We propose modelling short-term pollutant exposure effects on health by using dynamic generalized linear models. The time series of count data are modelled by a Poisson distribution having mean driven by a latent Markov process; estimation is performed by the extended Kalman filter and smoother. This modelling strategy allows us to take into account possible overdispersion and time-varying effects of the covariates. These ideas are illustrated by reanalysing data on the relationship between daily non-accidental deaths and air pollution in the city of Birmingham, Alabama.     

A new class of modified binomial distributions with applications to certain toxicological experiments ∗

A large class of distributions is proposed to fit the binary data obtained from certain toxicological experiments in which, for example, the outcome of interest is the occurrence of dead or malformed fetuses in a litter. This class of distribution includes the additive model proposed by Altham (1978) as a special case. The fits to three real-life data sets using this new distribution are shown to be much better than those provided by beta-binomial distribution used by Williams (1975) and by the correlated-binomial distribution proposed by Kupper and Haseman (1978).     

On the existence of maximum likelihood estimates for weighted logistic regression

The problems of existence and uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimates for logistic regression were completely solved by Silvapulle in 1981 and Albert and Anderson in 1984. In this paper, we extend the well-known results by Silvapulle and by Albert and Anderson to weighted logistic regression. We analytically prove the equivalence between the overlap condition used by Albert and Anderson and that used by Silvapulle. We show that the maximum likelihood estimate of weighted logistic regression does not exist if there is a complete separation or a quasicomplete separation of the data points, and exists and is unique if there is an overlap of data points. Our proofs and results for weighted logistic apply to unweighted logistic regression.     

Zur näherungsweisen ermittlung optimaler stochastischer steuerimgen durch diskretisierung

Considered are stochastic continuous-time control systems described by stochastic differential equations, which are defined by special martingals. Examples are given by the well known Ito equations with respect to a Wiener - or a Poisson process. By means of a performance index, regarding current yields as well as a terminal payment a control problem is formulated. The essential result in view of concrete evaluation is the approximation by a sequence of discrete-time finite dimensional control problems.     

Another Approach to Incomplete Integrals

One usually writes the incomplete integrals as the sums of discrete probabilities by repeating the procedure of integration by parts. This work provides another approach by employing the binomial expansion.     

Tobacco: public perceptions and the role of the industry

Summary. The paper briefly examines the substantial risks of smoking, and how people's perception of them may be influenced by tobacco control policy and by the activities of the tobacco industry. The comparative lack of effectiveness of the self-regulation system of implementing tobacco control policy is noted, illustrated by the example of cigarette pack health warnings, from the first examples under the voluntary system to the significantly more robust and effective pictorial warnings system pioneered by Canada and implemented by legislation, similar to measures recently approved by the European Union. Other aspects of tobacco control policy are discussed, including health education, restricting the promotion of tobacco and changing the social acceptability of smoking. Three areas of success in the UK—taxation, the leadership of doctors and sustained media advocacy—are described; and the paper concludes by looking at prospects for the future, with the forthcoming ban on most forms of tobacco promotion and the challenge of responding to growing demands to protect non-smokers from exposure to other people's tobacco smoke in the workplace and in public places.