Dollar appreciation,deficit stimulation,and the new protectionism

This article probes whether contemporary U.S. protectionism arises from an appreciating dollar. It concludes that (a) an enrich-thy-neighbor policy of upvaluation has transformed the current U.S. economic recovery into an engine of global recovery; (b) flexible exchange rates continually equilibrate the balance of payments as evidenced in changed domestic—relative to foreign—prices, as well as in capital movements induced by interest-rate differentials resulting from exchange-rate shifts; and (c) flexible exchange rates automatically alter so as to maintain a country's competitive position in the world economy even when facing deficits at home and abroad.     

走过2002 走向辉煌

辽宁地处东北亚国际大通道和环渤海经济圈的中心位置,具有明显的区位优势、雄厚的产业基础和丰富的人才资源,而且具有较高的工业化和城市化水平.环渤海经济圈在未来中国经济发展过程中,将很可能成为继珠江三角洲和长江三角洲之后,又一个极具投资吸引力并深具增长潜力的地区.     

印度地区安全知觉中的中国意象——基于2002～2003年度至2018～2019年度印度国防报告的分析

印度是中国在亚洲最大的邻国,在中国周边安全战略中具有举足轻重的地位,如何处理好与印度的关系一直是中国外交战略中的重要课题.洞朗对峙之后,中印两国高层保持了频繁紧密的交往,两国关系得到极大改善.客观来看,鉴于中国在印度地区安全知觉意象中的复杂性,中印关系的发展仍然面临不容忽视的挑战.在中印关系中,双方的安全知觉是错位的,即在周边安全环境中,中国并不认为印度是中国安全环境面临的主要威胁,印度则认为中国是其周边安全环境中最首要的因素.在这点上,从2002~2003年度至2018~2019年度印度国防报告中均有体现.毋庸置疑,历年的印度国防报告形成于印度安全知觉与实践的基础之上,较为系统地反映了印度在全球与地区层面对中国的安全知觉意象,涉及中国的内容也较为全面地反映了印度对中国在其地区安全架构中的看法与知觉.厘清这些印度对华安全知觉意象对于思考未来中印关系的走向具有重要意义.同时,根据历年印度国防报告及其综合的外交实践,大致可以勾勒出印度对华安全战略的形态.研究认为,如何稳妥地促进印度地区安全知觉中中国意象的转变是中印关系健康发展面临的重大挑战,也是一项紧迫任务.     

A Comparison of Psychometric Properties and Normality in 4-, 5-, 6-, and 11-Point Likert Scales

ABSTRACT

The Likert scale is very popular, but the question as to the number of scale points is still controversial. This article studies the differences among 4-, 5-, 6-, and 11-point Likert scales with a sample of 1,217 students in Macau, using the Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale as the measuring instrument. There is no major difference in internal structure in terms of means, standard deviations, item–item correlations, item–total correlations, Cronbach's alpha, or factor loadings. Findings indicate that having more scale points seems to reduce skewness, and the 11-point scale, ranging from 0 to 10, has the smallest kurtosis and is closest to normal. Only the 6- and 11-point scales follow normal distributions from Kolmogorov–Smirnov and Shapiro–Wilk statistics. Results on predictive validity are inconclusive. This article discusses future applications and suggests the use of an 11-point scale as it increases sensitivity and is closer to interval level of scaling and normality. Recommendations for social workers and teachers are made to better assist when using self-reported measurement scales.     

Universalism versus targeting: The vulnerability of social insurance and means-tested minimum income protection in 18 countries, 1990-2002

The stagnation and retrenchment of social policies in recent decades raise considerable interest and concern in writings on the welfare state. This study examines differences in the development of means‐tested benefits and social insurance provisions. Questions relating to the measurement of policy retrenchment and the vulnerability of social benefits are addressed. Two conflicting hypotheses are discerned: one stating that the development of means‐tested benefits resembles that of social insurance; and another more recent one claiming that the evolution of means‐tested benefits follows a unique pattern. The empirical analyses are based on institutional data on the level of social benefits. It is shown that social insurance stands a better chance of surviving periods of retrenchment and that the greater vulnerability of means‐tested benefits is related to the organization of social insurance provisions.     

中国制造业单位劳动力成本变化趋势——以2002-2016年数据为依据

利用细化数据测算2002-2016年中国制造业小时劳动力成本、小时劳动生产率和单位劳动力成本,并与28个不同类型国家或地区进行比较分析.结果表明:在2002-2016年期间,中国制造业小时劳动力成本和小时劳动生产率都经历了快速增长,小时劳动力成本的增长速度明显超过小时劳动生产率的增长速度,单位劳动力成本先基本不变,后快速上升.中国城市制造业的小时劳动力成本、小时劳动生产率、单位劳动力成本都比乡镇要大.中国制造业单位劳动力成本已经超过菲律宾、马来西亚等周边国家,较墨西哥、俄罗斯、哥伦比亚、智利、土耳其的劳动力成本优势也基本消失.中国政府应高度重视单位劳动力成本过快上升的问题,防范倒逼机制失效的风险.     

Social psychology and neoliberalism: A critical commentary on McDonald,Gough, Wearing,and Deville (2017)

McDonald, Gough, Wearing, and Deville (2017) call for the discipline of social psychology to investigate issues of neoliberalism, consumption and self‐identity more seriously. We make two contributions in relation to their analysis. First, we highlight some current issues associated with neoliberalism as a concept that leave us in doubt regarding the analytical usefulness of the term. Due to its imprecision and over‐extension, predominant association with the left who use it pejoratively, and altered economic circumstances, we are increasingly skeptical of neoliberalism's analytical validity to social psychology. Second, we also stress the importance of interdisciplinarity, but suggest that empirical insights from mainstream social psychology have much to offer social scientists concerned with how current economic developments impact upon self‐identity and social behaviour. We conclude by pointing out that a greater openness to heterodoxy within and between critical and mainstream strands and the wider social sciences are required if social psychologists are going to make more persuasive impacts to the study and resistance of market logic.     

Macroeconomic impacts of Chinese currency appreciation on China and the Rest of World: A global CGE analysis

This paper analyzes the ex-ante short-term impacts of the Chinese RMB appreciation on the Chinese and world economy, using a novel approach of modeling nominal exchange rate adjustment in the GTAP, a global CGE model. Scenario results show that Chinese economy will be affected negatively, with lower real GDP, lower employment rates, and a decline in the trade surplus. Chinese currency appreciation has positive impact on the GDP of the major countries and regions, although by a small margin. With higher Chinese exchange rate, trade balance for other trading partner countries improves with the exception of the U.S.     

Mapping ‘the ANT multiple’: A comparative,critical and reflexive analysis

Despite decades of development, Actor‐Network Theory (ANT) continues to be characterized by a good deal of ambiguities and internal tensions. This situation has led to a suggestion that instead of one ANT it may be meaningful to speak of ‘the ANT multiple’. Following this line of reasoning, this article aims to create a map of the variety of positions riding under the ANT banner. Based on an in‐depth reading of ANT literature, seven different interpretations of ANT are identified and subjected to critical analysis while accommodating for the concerns of ANT proponents about the way ANT has been previously criticized. The results of the analysis serve to increase the reflexivity of both sides of the debate about their underlying assumptions, and provide suggestions how ANT could be employed, developed and criticized more productively in the future.     

Pension reform, the stock market, capital formation and economic growth: A critical commentary on the World Bank's proposals

Proposing far-reaching reforms to pension systems, the World Bank has recently suggested that the existing pay-as-you-go systems in many rich as well as poor countries should be replaced by fully funded, mandatory, preferably private pensions, as the main pillars of the new system. It argues that these reforms will not only benefit pensioners but also enhance savings, and promote capital formation and economic development. This paper provides a critical examination of the Bank's theses and concludes that it has adopted a one-sided view of the relationships between the key critical variables. The proposed reform may therefore neither protect the old nor achieve faster economic growth.     

Income management in Australia: A critical examination of the evidence

The introduction of income management – sometimes called welfare quarantining – for subgroups of Australian income security recipients within the Northern Territory, and subsequently a number of other trial sites, has provoked considerable contention. The present study critically examined the arguments and evidence presented in favour of income management with particular reference to the guidelines, methodology and findings of official evaluations conducted by the Commonwealth Government. We identified five key issues that do not seem to be adequately addressed by official evaluations: choice and control, the quality of decision making, consultation with local community members, structural disadvantage and economic cost. We used these concepts to develop a proposed alternative model for assessing the impact of income management on local communities.     

Abstractions on steroids: A critical realist approach to computer simulations

Computer simulations are increasingly used within various fields of the social sciences, including analytical sociology and computational social science. However, the method has yet to fully find its place within critical realism, generally regarded as reductionist and methodological individualist and thus inadequate to the task of grasping the full and enigmatic complexity of social life. This article contributes to the discussion by suggesting an alternative approach to computer simulations in the social realm. Instead of representing reality, simulations are seen as a way of boosting abstraction by enabling us to isolate and study the effects of emergent mechanisms. The need for such tools is growing more urgent in an age characterized by rapid change and global networks of causal interrelation. Hence there is a need not only for new tools to deal with causal complexity within critical realism, but also for a critical realist perspective to fill the meta‐theoretical vacuum on which the simulation approach is largely based. The approach developed here provides a challenge to the predominant ways in which simulations are utilized today, with increasingly sophisticated models aiming towards realistic representation on the basis of empirical data.