Adaptive Tactical Pricing in Multi‐Agent Supply Chain Markets Using Economic Regimes

In today's complex and dynamic supply chain markets, information systems are essential for effective supply chain management. Complex decision making processes on strategic, tactical, and operational levels require substantial timely support in order to contribute to organizations' agility. Consequently, there is a need for sophisticated dynamic product pricing mechanisms that can adapt quickly to changing market conditions and competitors' strategies. We propose a two‐layered machine learning approach to compute tactical pricing decisions in real time. The first layer estimates prevailing economic conditions—economic regimes—identifying and predicting current and future market conditions. In the second layer, we train a neural network for each regime to estimate price distributions in real time using available information. The neural networks compute offer acceptance probabilities from a tactical perspective to meet desired sales quotas. We validate our approach in the trading agent competition for supply chain management. When competing against the world's leading agents, the performance of our system significantly improves compared to using only economic regimes to predict prices. Profits increase significantly even though the prices and sales volume do not change significantly. Instead, tactical pricing results in a more efficient sales strategy by reducing both finished goods and components inventory costs.     

Performance-Net: A Decision Support System for Reconfiguring a Bank's Branch Network

This paper presents a Decision Support System (DSS) that enables the management of a retail bank to evaluate and reconfigure its branch network. The DSS uses computational methods and knowledge that arises from information about the bank's operational and fixed costs, as well as demographic characteristics from the geographical area where branches are located. The DSS that we call Performance-Net estimates the performance of a branch network and determines the optimum number of branches and the optimum mix of services that each one should provide in order to maximize the bank's revenue- generating measures. Its computational engine is based on a linear programming optimization model and its implementation is developed using the standard MS Excel program. Performance-Net provides efficient solutions, is particularly user-friendly and can reach excellent answers for a wide variety of “what if” parametric scenarios.     

A Goal Programming Model for Effective Segment Determination: A Comment and Application

This note presents a model for the effective market segment determination problem. The integer goal programming model was developed for a nonprofit health care organization. The approach is an alternative application of a model presented by McClure and Wells [7]. The model includes input from the organization's clients as well as the organization's decision makers. A distinctive element is the simultaneous development of market segments and the consideration of management, institutional, and resource constraints. The purpose of the model was to aid the decision makers in determining if effective market segments exist which can be reached with information and educational materials concerning infant nutrition and breastfeeding. The model was tested and found to be effective in helping the decision makers segment their clients.     

Market Segmentation in Scientific Publications: Research Patterns in American vs European Management Journals1

Ideal science should conform to certain criteria or goals, among them the goals of universalism and commonality. Realization of these goals may be limited, however, through the dividing up of researchers in terms of geographical borders. In this study the general hypothesis is tested that there is a segmentation of the society of management researchers into a North American (US) and a European (E) segment, a segmentation which is furthered by differences in incentive schemes and in paradigms. Four leading management journals from North America and from Europe, respectively, and the 242 articles they contained published in 1993 were selected to represent the different geographical segments. The results provide: support for the existence of two such segments; support for differences in incentive schemes influencing the articles; support for their being paradigm differences between the two segments; and support for a paradigm effect being stronger in US-journals than in E-journals, US-authors are more willing, however, to conform to the E-paradigm than vice versa. We argue for methodological pragmatism in order to reduce the presumed counter-productive effects of paradigmatic rigidity.     

一种基于证据理论的动态综合效绩评价实用方法

本文针对一体化管理体系综合绩效的多指标、多层次、评价标准模糊,且属性复杂等评价特点,建立了综合绩效评价体系;提出了基于证据理论的动态综合模糊评价方法;给出了具体的评价步骤;按指标属性将评价指标区分为定性和定量两类:对各指标进行量化、一致性和无量纲化处理;从评价体系准则层开始进行动态立体综合评价;逐层合成综合绩效值.最后通过实例说明该方法的实用性和科学性.     

The Limits of ex post Implementation

The sensitivity of Bayesian implementation to agents' beliefs about others suggests the use of more robust notions of implementation such as ex post implementation, which requires that each agent's strategy be optimal for every possible realization of the types of other agents. We show that the only deterministic social choice functions that are ex post implementable in generic mechanism design frameworks with multidimensional signals, interdependent valuations, and transferable utilities are constant functions. In other words, deterministic ex post implementation requires that the same alternative must be chosen irrespective of agents' signals. The proof shows that ex post implementability of a nontrivial deterministic social choice function implies that certain rates of information substitution coincide for all agents. This condition amounts to a system of differential equations that are not satisfied by generic valuation functions.     

Effect of Providing the Uncertainty Information About a Tornado Occurrence on the Weather Recipients’ Cognition and Protective Action: Probabilistic Hazard Information Versus Deterministic Warnings

Currently, a binary alarm system is used in the United States to issue deterministic warning polygons in case of tornado events. To enhance the effectiveness of the weather information, a likelihood alarm system, which uses a tool called probabilistic hazard information (PHI), is being developed at National Severe Storms Laboratory to issue probabilistic information about the threat. This study aims to investigate the effects of providing the uncertainty information about a tornado occurrence through the PHI's graphical swath on laypeople's concern, fear, and protective action, as compared with providing the warning information with the deterministic polygon. The displays of color‐coded swaths and deterministic polygons were shown to subjects. Some displays had a blue background denoting the probability of any tornado formation in the general area. Participants were asked to report their levels of concern, fear, and protective action at randomly chosen locations within each of seven designated levels on each display. Analysis of a three‐stage nested design showed that providing the uncertainty information via the PHI would appropriately increase recipients’ levels of concern, fear, and protective action in highly dangerous scenarios, with a more than 60% chance of being affected by the threat, as compared with deterministic polygons. The blue background and the color‐coding type did not have a significant effect on the people's cognition of the threat and reaction to it. This study shows that using a likelihood alarm system leads to more conscious decision making by the weather information recipients and enhances the system safety.     

Managing AMI in a Just-In-Time Environment in the UK and Japan

In recent years many commentators have addressed the ‘crisis’ in manufacturing industry (Gerwin, 1982; Drucker, 1988, 1990; Hayes and Jaikumar, 1988). Some have offered cross-national comparisons on Japanese and Western management methods and techniques (Kharbanda and Stallworthy, 1991; Oliver and Wilkinson, 1987; Pascale and Athos, 1981) whilst others have concentrated on improving performance in specific fields such as management accounting (Kaplan, 1984; Cooper, 1991) or manufacturing management (Schonberger, 1982; Halt, 1983). Empirical research into managing AMT in Japan and the UK (Currie 1991a) considers some of the broader managerial issues in manufacturing. Cultural differences are common in the areas of investment appraisal, post-auditing of AMT and preventive maintenance policy. For example, in Japan JIT is perceived ‘holistically’ incorporating production management, total quality assurance (TQA) and total preventive maintenance (TPM). This is contrary to the UK in that many large manufacturing companies fail to include TPM in their manufacturing strategies (Currie and Seddon, 1991). There are few management information systems (MIS) which provide an understanding of machine performance using both non-financial and financial information. Focusing on maintenance as a central theme, the paper discusses the development of the Failure And Scheduled Maintenance Analysis (FASMA) system, which offers a practical solution to the problem of collecting and manipulating manufacturing data on the shopfloor (Seddon, 1991a). Essentially, FASMA attempts to interface both the manufacturing and management accounting functions by translating machine performance data into valuable information from which preventive maintenance policy may be improved. Using FASMA to measure machine performance at a major UK automotive manufacturer, machine down-time has averaged 61% each month over a 3-year period. By manipulating this data, performance measurement information may be utilized by management accountants. FASMA thus develops a link between manufacturing and management accounting by providing data on machine performance which can be used for cost analysis within a manufacturing environment. The paper concludes by arguing that manufacturing strategies can only be developed using appropriate management information systems (MIS) designed to enhance functional integration. This will enable a better understanding of how the ‘manufacturing jigsaw’ fits together.     

Route vs. Segment: An Experiment on Real‐Time Travel Information in Congestible Networks

We report the results of an experimental study of route choice in congestible networks with a common origin and common destination. In one condition, in each round of play network users independently committed themselves at the origin to a three‐segment route; in the other condition, they chose route segments sequentially at each network junction upon receiving en route information. At the end of each round, players received ex‐post complete information about the distribution of the route choices. Although the complexity of the network defies analysis by common users, traffic patterns in both conditions converged rapidly to the equilibrium solution. We account for the observed results by a Markov adaptive learning model postulating regret minimization and inertia. We find that subjects' learning behavior was similar across conditions, except that they exhibited more inertia in the condition with en route information.     

Measuring dynamic efficiency of highway maintenance operations

In this paper we discuss a dynamic efficiency measurement model for evaluating the performance of highway maintenance policies where the inter-temporal dependencies between consumption of inputs (i.e., maintenance budget) and realization of outputs (i.e., improvement in road condition) are explicitly captured. We build on a micro representation of pavement deterioration and renewal processes and study the impact of the allocation of scarce maintenance budgets over time. We provide a measure of efficiency that contrasts the optimized budget allocations to the actual ones. The developed model is then applied to an empirical dataset of pavement condition and maintenance expenditures over the years 2002 to 2008 corresponding to seventeen miles of interstate highway that lay in one of the counties in the state of Virginia, USA. The policies that were found through optimization showed that road authorities should give higher priorities to preventive maintenance than corrective maintenance. In essence, by applying preventive maintenance, the road authorities can effectively decrease the need for future corrective maintenance while spending less overall.     

Risk‐Cost‐Benefit Analysis for Transportation Corridors with Interval Uncertainties of Heterogeneous Data

Access management, which systematically limits opportunities for egress and ingress of vehicles to highway lanes, is critical to protect trillions of dollars of current investment in transportation. This article addresses allocating resources for access management with incomplete and partially relevant data on crash rates, travel speeds, and other factors. While access management can be effective to avoid crashes, reduce travel times, and increase route capacities, the literature suggests a need for performance metrics to guide investments in resource allocation across large corridor networks and several time horizons. In this article, we describe a quantitative decision model to support an access management program via risk‐cost‐benefit analysis under data uncertainties from diverse sources of data and expertise. The approach quantifies potential benefits, including safety improvement and travel time savings, and costs of access management through functional relationships of input parameters including crash rates, corridor access point densities, and traffic volumes. Parameter uncertainties, which vary across locales and experts, are addressed via numerical interval analyses. This approach is demonstrated at several geographic scales across 7,000 kilometers of highways in a geographic region and several subregions. The demonstration prioritizes route segments that would benefit from risk management, including (i) additional data or elicitation, (ii) right‐of‐way purchases, (iii) restriction or closing of access points, (iv) new alignments, (v) developer proffers, and (vi) etc. The approach ought to be of wide interest to analysts, planners, policymakers, and stakeholders who rely on heterogeneous data and expertise for risk management.     

Dynamic Models for the Time Series of Industrial Conflict in the Labour Market

ABSTRACT: In the aim to investigate the behaviour of some indicators for the industrial conflict and to detect the relation between such variables and the cost of labour in Italy, this paper suggests the use of Box-Jenkins’time series analysis. By fitting a different stochastic process for each series, it can be shown that every indicator gives a different kind of information about the industrial conflict, so that they can't be indifferently substituted by each other. In a second step, cross correlation function estimates between cost of labour and each indicator suggest the different role played by 'strike frequency’and strike duration during any contract renewal.     

Measuring the Performance of Corporate Acquisitions: An Empirical Comparison of Alternative Metrics*

The choice of performance measure has long been a difficult issue facing researchers. This article investigates the comparability of four common measures of acquisition performance: cumulative abnormal returns, managers' assessments, divestment data and expert informants' assessments. Independently each of these measures indicated a mean acquisition success rate of between 44–56%, within a sample of British cross‐border acquisitions. However, with the exception of a positive relationship between managers' and expert informants' subjective assessments, no significant correlation was found between the performance data generated by the alternative metrics. In particular, ex‐ante capital market reactions to an acquisition announcement exhibited little relation to corporate managers' ex‐post assessment. This is seen to reflect the information asymmetry that can exist between investors and company management, particularly regarding implementation aspects. Overall, the results suggest that future acquisitions studies should consider employing multiple performance measures in order to gain a holistic view of outcome, while in the longer term, opportunities remain to identify and refine improved metrics.     

Just-in-time in ATO vehicle manufacturing: The Minivan-Piaggio V.E. case study

The system adopted by Piaggio V.E. to run the production of 'Minivan' aims at conciliating the manufacturing philosophy 'just-in-time' JIT with the creation of a wide range of end-product codes. Some general assumptions for a JIT production, with small lot sizes, are described together with their implementation in the operationorganizing system adopted by Piaggio V.E. for the 'Minivan' assembly line. The strategy pursued by Piaggio V.E. for the Minivan focuses on the quality of the product and the level of service in the form of fast order cycle and a high number of options offered on catalogue. According to the logic of an ATO production system, the customer orders a customized product and the manufacturer does not keep any finished inventory, but aims at effective management of the information flows.     

Confirmatory Factor Analysis of the End‐User Computing Satisfaction Instrument: Replication within an ERP Domain*

Over the past decade, organizations have made significant investments in enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems. The realization of benefits from these investments depends on supporting effective use of information technology (IT) and satisfying IT users. User satisfaction with information systems is one of the most important determinants of the success of those systems. Drawing upon a sample of 407 end users of ERP systems and working within the framework of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), this study examines the structure and dimensionality, and reliability and validity of the end‐user computing satisfaction (EUCS) instrument posited by Doll and Torkzadeh (1988) . In response to Klenke's (1992) motion to cross‐validate management information system (MIS) instruments and to retest the end user computing satisfaction instrument using new data, this study's results, consistent with previous findings, confirm that the EUCS instrument maintains its psychometric stability when applied to users of enterprise resource planning application software. Implications of these results for practice and research are provided.     

The ASARCO-EPA settlement agreement: Understanding the value of a corporate-wide EMS for regulators and strategists alike

State and federal regulatory officials are probing whether environment management system actually enhance industry compliance with environmental law. Already convinced of that fact, many corporate strategies have moved on to the work of integrating auditing, training, policies, procedures and other compliance related elements within an overarching environmental business strategy. A settlement agreement entered into between ASARCO Incorporated, a leading copper producer, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency illustrates ane firm's approach to that challenge using the ISO 14001 management system. This agreement, which includes the first corporate-wide implementation of ISO 14001-based management systems by EPA, shows that some within the enforcement community have already been persuaded that a properly designed environmental management system can improve an organization's compliance with environment requirements.     

Introduction to Innovation WITHIN and ACROSS Borders: A Review and Future Directions

Innovation is an integral part of every firm's ongoing operations. While new product and service creation is an essential task to ensure a firm's immediate success in the marketplace, process and supply chain innovations can also create a unique source of competitive advantage for the future. Encouraging innovative thinking, developing new innovations, and managing the processes by which those innovations are developed are critical aspects of today's firm. Consequently, research which aids in the creation and maintenance of innovative firms is an important topic of inquiry for research communities on innovation management, including the operations management and information systems communities. We review the literature in this important area and offer suggestions for future research on the following topics: innovation within a firm and across the supply chain, technology management, and new product and service development.     

The 2008 Wall Street Crash: A Failed Organizational Response to Complexity

In the period since the 2008 Wall Street crash, little consensus has emerged on its causes or actions to prevent a recurrence. Our capability for rational decision making was overwhelmed. Viewing the entire financial system as a huge, richly interconnected organization suggests that its structure and associated management practices are suited for a far simpler environment. An organization that is large relative to its environment and sufficiently complex to require the coordination of specialized expertise cannot function by enabling decision makers to respond only to local demands. The resulting inability to recognize critical interdependencies and the nature of their risk makes periodic catastrophic failure likely. Specifically, compartmentalization of information, influence, and reward creates a myopic decision environment in which individual decision makers are unlikely to make effective or ethical decisions. Useful criteria for evaluating solutions can be suggested by considering the interaction of two factors: limited human information processing capability and the effect of motivation on information processing. Taken together, they suggest that human information processing is both limited and opportunistic. We cannot process all information available and the information selected for processing narrows to that needed to achieve salient rewards. Because of this, the organization's reward practices and their effect on motivation are a critical variable. Large financial rewards contingent upon short term, local, simplistic measures inevitably narrow the focus of decision maker's attention to a small part of the system. In contrast, dominant intrinsic motivation is rooted in awareness of, and responsibility for, broader outcomes. Each type of motivation differs in its requirements for sharing of information, influence, and reward. These, in turn, determine the adaptability of the organization to complexity and change. While this has significant ethical implications, its logic rests on the limitations of human information processing and motivation. Aligning human motivation and information flow to the demands of a complex, turbulent financial environment is the challenge we must meet to prevent further cataclysms.     

Collaboration spaces in Canadian biotechnology: A search for gatekeepers

The paper studies the network of Canadian biotechnology co-inventors and compares the structure of the links between inventors within, and outside of, the cluster. Two types of proximity between individuals are compared: within cluster co-invention refers to geographical proximity while co-patenting links (network component) represent social proximity between inventors of an epistemic community. We show that the cluster-based subnetworks are more fragmented and less centralized than the network components. The paper then proposes two indicators measuring an inventor's importance as a gatekeeper, i.e. an individual at the cluster's frontier responsible for the inflow of the external knowledge to the cluster.