生育性别偏好行为的双向选择——来自陕西省神木县的调查发现

本研究根据神木县经济、社会发展以及政策调整,结合群众的生育观念调查和访谈,以出生人口性别比变动趋势分析生育性别偏好的发展和变化。研究发现,在经济、社会发展以及政策调整进程中,存在生育性别偏好的双向选择：一方面,男孩功能随着经济与社会发展出现减弱,促进了不再追求生育儿子的生育性别偏好正向选择;另一方面,在男孩偏好文化顽固的地区,经济社会发展与政策调整刺激了男孩偏好,加剧了偏好儿子的生育性别偏好逆向选择。研究有利于明确经济、社会以及政策对于生育性别偏好的影响,从而为进一步制定有效的性别失衡治理政策提供依据。     

Issue-Relevant Values and Opinions About Gay Rights: Beyond Equality and Morality

Although many studies have examined the role of values in shaping public opinion, the number of values that inform this research is limited. This article employs the concept of issue-relevant values as a means to explore the broader range of values associated with policy issues. After discussing the concept in general terms, the article explores issue-relevant values pertinent to public opinion about gay rights. Using the policy examples of employment nondiscrimination and same-sex couple adoption, the present study identifies, measures, and assesses several values that add to the very short list previously used to explain public opinion about gay rights issues. Content from interest-group Web sites and news media coverage of the two issues aided in identifying the values. Data from an original Internet survey yield valid measures of the values. Multivariate analyses indicate that the values behave in predictable ways: they are strongly influenced by partisanship, and they strongly affect opinions about the two issues. The performance of the values is consistent with findings from previous research on the partisan basis of values and the value-based nature of opinions. The article concludes with suggestions for further empirical and theoretical work that could apply and extend the concept of issue-relevant values.     

When nature rebels: international migration, climate change, and inequality

We study climate change and international migration in a two-country overlapping generations model with endogenous climate change. Our main findings are that climate change increases migration; small impacts of climate change have significant impacts on the number of migrants; a laxer immigration policy increases long-run migration, aggravates climate change, and increases north–south inequality if climate change impacts are not too small; and a greener technology reduces emissions, long-run migration, and inequality if the migrants’ impact to overall climate change is large. The preference over the policies depends on whether the policy maker targets inequality, wealth, the environment, or the number of migrants.     

Time and Money: A New Look at Poverty and the Barriers to Physical Activity in Canada

The relationship between time, money, and regular participation in physical activities, especially at the intensities and durations required to improve one’s health, is an important public health and social policy issue. The objective of this research is to develop a better understanding of the extent to which income poverty and time poverty act as barriers to regular participation in moderate or higher intensity physical activities. This study uses Canadian time use data collected in 2005 in order to measure income poverty, time poverty, and active living. Objective measures of physical activity engagement (participation rates, daily occurrences, and daily time budgets) are used to explore differences between the rich and poor categories of both income and time wealth. The income and time wealth categories are corroborated using subjective assessments of stress and perceived barriers to regular participation in sports. The results illustrate the multidimensional nature of poverty, but from a public health and social policy perspective, time poverty may be more important than income poverty as a barrier to regular physical activity engagement.     

The Decline of Son Preference in South Korea: The Roles of Development and Public Policy

For years, sex ratios at birth kept rising in South Korea despite rapid development. We show that this was not an anomaly: underlying son preference fell with development, but the effect of son preference on sex ratios at birth rose until the mid‐1990s as a result of improved sex‐selection technology. Now South Korea leads Asia with a declining sex ratio at birth. We explore how son preference was affected by development and by public policy. Decomposition analysis indicates that development reduced son preference primarily through triggering normative changes across society—rather than just in individuals whose socioeconomic circumstances had changed. The cultural underpinnings of son preference in preindustrial Korea were unraveled by industrialization and urbanization even as public policies sought to uphold the patriarchal family system. Our results suggest that child sex ratios in China and India may decline before those countries reach South Korean levels of development, since the governments of both countries vigorously promote normative change to reduce son preference.     

Control of population by economic means]

Education alone cannot effectively control population growth. Benefit to the individual must be coordinated with the benefit to the community and the country. It is absolutely necessary and possible to control population by economic means. The economic policy in Tienjing includes: 1) give preference to single child families in child care, health benefits, education, and employment, and financially punish families with more than two children; 2) establish a better rationing policy, one not based on a per capita ration, and give preference to single child families; 3) establish retirement benefits and guarantee higher living standards for retirees who have either no children or only 1 or 2 children, and give paid sick leave to people experiencing complications following sterilization operations; 4) establish equal inheritance rights for both male and female offspring; and 5) give bonuses to units with excellent family planning results and to medical personnel with fewer complications during sterilization operations, and financially punish groups with poor family planning results. In order to effectively implement the economic means, coordinate bonuses with punishment, and coordinate local policies with those of the entire society. The key is strong leadership, but the voluntary and active involvement of the public insures success.     

An Individual Relative Deprivation Index and Its Curve Considering Income Scope

China is characterized by a low fertility intention, a strong preference for sons, as well as a stringent birth control policy. In this study, we used data from a Fertility Intention and Behavior Survey of 2101 questionnaires conducted in 2013 in Shaanxi Province of northwestern China, and event history analysis methods to examine the effect of fertility intention and preference for sons on the probability of having a second child. The results not only validate the correlation of fertility intention with having a second child empirically, even in the low fertility intention and stringent birth control context of China, but also show that women with a preference for sons were less likely to have a second child. Women with son preference turn to sex-selective abortion to ensure that their first child is a son, thus reducing the likelihood of a second child and decreasing the fertility rate. Our findings also shed light on China’s potential fertility policy adjustment.     

Republic of Korea. Country feature

The Government of Korea's 5th 5-Year Economic and Social Development Plan (1982-86) seeks to reduce the population growth rate from its 1982 level of 1.58% to 1.49% by 1986; it is assumed that the population replacement level of fertility (total fertility rate, 2.1) will be attained in 1988. The task of achieving these demographic targets is expected to be made more difficult by factors such as the impact of the 1950s baby boom and widespread son preference. New population control policy measures announced in 1981 call for improvements in the current family planning program management system; a new social and institutional support system to inculcate the small family size norm; strengthened information, education, and communication activities for family planning; and establishment of coordination among the government organizations involved in population-related activities. Numerous social support measures have already been put into effect, including income tax exemptions for up to 2 children, inclusion of population education in the school curriculum, priority in alloting public housing to sterilization acceptors with 2 or fewer children, and provision of IUD services through the medical insurance system. The number of contraceptive acceptors in the government program increased 78.3% from 1981-83, from 614,000 to 1,094,600. Sterilization and menstrual regulation services have shown particularly sharp increases. Program achievement for 1983 was equivalent to 19% of eligible women ages 15-44 years. The total fertility rate stood at 2.7 in 1982. Major efforts now must be directed toward eradicating the strong parental son preference and ensuring better family planning program efficiency and effectiveness.     

Civil religion,social indicators,and public policy

What are the effects of civil religion on American society and culture? As a phenomena which presumably serves to integrate the political with the religious sectors of the national culture in the minds of citizens, it would seem that civil religion should have political consequences. Limited work has shown that civil religious beliefs help predict one's preference among presidential candidates. However, there have been no tests of civil religion as an indicator of public policy preferences. This investigation explores such relationships. While civil religion significantly related to stands on various public policies, these relationships are weak except in comparison to many other types of social indicators. Furthermore, civil religion's political impact on public policy orientations would appear less than its impact on the selection of presidential candidates.     

快速城市化背景下城市公共服务需求偏好研究——以上海为例

近年来,我国进入快速城市化阶段,城市人口快速膨胀,人口结构复杂化,居民对公共服务的需求多样化。本文以上海市为例,通过问卷数据,从人口学视角,通过回归分析不同人群公共服务的偏好。结果显示,当前居民对公共服务的需求不仅有数量增加,对质量、服务水平及环境都有所要求;同时人口区域结构对公共服务的需求具有显著影响,人口自然结构、社会结构的影响较小,区域公共服务差异、户籍性质造成的身份差异是影响公共服务需求的主导因素。     

Evidence for an Incipient Decline in Numbers of Missing Girls in China and India

The apparently inexorable rise in the proportion of “missing girls” in much of East and South Asia has attracted much attention among researchers and policymakers. An encouraging trend was suggested by the case of South Korea, where child sex ratios (males to females under age 5) were the highest in Asia but peaked in the mid‐1990s and normalized thereafter. Using census data, we examine whether similar trends have begun to manifest themselves in the two most populous countries of this region, China and India. The data indicate that child sex ratios are peaking in these countries, and in many subnational regions are beginning to trend toward lower, more normal values. This suggests that, with continuing economic and social development and vigorous public policy efforts to reduce son preference, the “missing girls” phenomenon could eventually disappear in Asia.     

Construction and Validation of an Observational Scale of Neighborhood Characteristics

This paper reports the development and validation of the Neighborhood Observation Scale, a 41 item measure of neighborhood physical appearance, social appearance, safety, and amenities. Three independent ratings were collected on each of 244 neighborhoods in 132 census block groups in five South Carolina counties, for a total of 732 observations. Inter-rater reliability analysis showed 92.6% agreement among at least two raters and an intraclass correlation of .54, indicating acceptable reliability. Exploratory factor analysis extracted eight factors for neighborhood physical appearance, school/park/public space physical appearance, neighborhood social appearance, indicated social engagement, observed social engagement, park/public space social engagement, resident watchfulness, and neighborhood safety risk. A follow-up confirmatory factor analysis supported the eight factor structure. Reliability analysis produced alpha coefficients ranging from .55 to .94 for the eight factors, indicating reliability for use as sub-scales. Convergent validity was determined by generally acceptable correlations of the factor sub-scales with measures of neighborhood distress, rates of child maltreatment and ICD-9-CM coded child injuries, and resident perceptions of neighboring, collective efficacy, reciprocal helping, and children’s safety in the home. Implications for research and policy and program development are discussed.     

我国出生性别比空间特征与影响因素分析

本文利用空间统计学方法对五普和六普出生性别比的时空演变与影响因素进行了分析。结果发现：十年中我国出生性别比的空间集聚特征更加明显;计生政策、公共卫生水平、经济因素对性别偏好的影响显著,城镇化水平的影响不显著,教育、公共服务水平对性别比的影响有待深入研究。     

Religiosity and Life Satisfaction Across the Life Course

Scant attention has been paid to social catalysts of the increase in religiosity in the maturational and aging process. Using the 1988 Gallup Survey, this paper first explores four major measures of religiosity (personal devotion, participation in public ritual, divine interaction, and preference for public or privatized religiosity) for seven age groups. Next, the impact of these religiosity measures on satisfaction with life is assessed for each of the major age categories. In light of these findings, the authors move toward developing a theory of religiosity and life course.     

Macro-Structural Determinants of Political Freedom in Developing Countries: A Cross-National Analysis

This study attempts to evaluate the impacts of macro-structural factors on political freedom in developing countries (DCs). Political freedom is conceptualized as civil liberty and political rights the general population of a society can enjoy in influencing public policy. The Freedom House indexes are used as measures of freedom. In explaining the individual countries’ differences in political freedom, this study considers the following factors: regime types, level of development, social structure, fractionalization, the state and military influence and external economic dependence. Empirical modeling of 118 DCs with regression techniques and ordered logit methods demonstrates that besides the regime effects, economic development generates favorable influence, while a large poor population and military spending produce negative impact on freedom. In the concluding section, we discuss the theoretical implications in comparative perspective.     

Measuring Subjective Well-Being and its Potential Role in Policy: Perspectives from the UK Office for National Statistics

Measures of subjective well-being are one component of the measurement of the quality of life and progress of a nation. The Office for National Statistics approach, as part of the Measuring National Well-being programme, has been to include such measures alongside more objective measures in order to gain a full picture of “how things are going” and to better inform public policy. These estimates are considered experimental and further testing and development is underway. However, it is argued that subjective well-being measures have a potential role in the policy process and this article considers how they could be used in policy making within the UK.     

Carrying out the number seven directive of C.C.C.C.P., spreading comprehensive measures of birth control]

This report examines how the Yi Yang District of Hunan Province carried out the Central Commitee of the Chinese Communist Party's No. 7 Directive, i.e., the directive requiring the people of the county to take comrehensive measures, as opposed to single methods, to promote birth control. Yi Yang District officials in charge of Family Planning established a new and comprehensive program promoting birth control, stressing 4 major points: 1) a voluntary policy, 2) suitability of the birth control method, 3) safety, and 4) convenience. Under the voluntary policy they emphasize that people must be free to choose their own means of birth control based upon physical considerations and personal beliefs because compulsory measures are generally resisted. Secondly, the method of birth control must be suitable to the individuals involved. Local family planning agencies have been very effective in helping couples establish medical records and in providing them with practical advice. The third concern of the Yi Yang District officials is with assuring people of the safety of the birth control method chosen in order to eliminate unnecessary fears and anxieties about possible side effects. Finally, they stress that family planning assistance should be made available to people at any time. These family planning measures have proved to be very successful and bring about lasting results.     

National approaches to developing social indicators

The basis for selecting social indicators in ten national publications released to date are primarily measures of welfare and measures reflecting public policy and social concerns. The orientation of the volumes from the U.S., France, Canada, Norway, Philippines, Malaysia, Great Britain are discussed. The selection of time series that reflect social processes is proposed and an orientation presented around the concepts of the vital processes, socialization and participation, mobility and stratification, maintaining security, and control and coordination by which social order is attained. A bibliography identifies the national reports known to the author.     

农村独生子女生育选择影响因素及测度研究——基于Multinomial Logistic模型实证分析

本文基于北京市昌平区的农村独生子女调查数据,利用效用最大化离散选择模型,对农村独生子女生育选择模式及影响因素进行了分析。文章不仅考察了个体因素、经济与社会政策因素对生育选择模式的影响,更重要的是从生育选择的预测概率、离散变化以及Odds Ratios等多角度对影响因素的重要程度、影响大小等进行了定量测度分析。并从中推断起决定作用的因素发生变化时,可能导致的生育意愿、计划与行为的改变,探讨独生子女生育选择对中国未来人口变动趋势产生的影响和政策意义。     

Evaluating public policy responses to the economic burden of population ageing with application to Australia

This paper reviews the issues in evaluating public policy interventions that are designed to address the economic burden of population ageing. It then briefly reviews the main public policy options with application to Australia. The economic burden of ageing is defined as the burden on national economic well-being over time and the extent to which this burden is shared between the public and private sectors. A key policy issue is the extent to which the economic burden of ageing should be spread out over present and future generations. This depends on how we value the economic well-being of future generations relative to our own, future projections of economic growth, and the rate at which our subjective sense of well-being improves with our living standards. The paper discusses policies to boost the labour force participation rates of older workers, measures to boost fertility and immigration policy. Also discussed are several policies to shift the burden of ageing from the public to private sectors: the establishment of government financial funds such as the Future Fund, superannuation policy, and health and aged care policy.