计划生育政策的人口效应

文章试图估计计划生育政策使我国少生了多少人。利用1980~2008年世界140多个国家的数据来模拟在没有计划生育政策影响下经济社会变量与人口变量的相关关系,并据此对中国无计划生育条件下的总和生育率进行测算。将测算出来的无计划生育条件下的总和生育率和中国实际总和生育率分别代入模型进行人口模拟,比较无计划生育条件下和现实条件下人口增长的不同过程和结果。研究表明:无计划生育条件下,我国2008年生育率水平的预测值大概在2.5左右。1972~2008年间,排除经济社会发展的影响,单纯由于计划生育的作用,中国少生了4.58亿人。     

中国人口发展趋势

一、人口数量和人口发展类型变化趋势 （一）人口过快增长得到有效控制。新中国成立后,1949～1969年平均每8年增加1亿人,人口总量连续突破6亿、7亿、8亿。20世纪70年代开始全面实行计划生育,人口总量1973～1982年从9亿到10亿历时9年,     

总结经验 精心准备 扎实做好扩大奖励扶助制度试点工作

河南总人口已达9717万，乡村人口6908万，占71．1％，农村主要依靠家庭养老，相当一部分农民群众仍希望多生。我们深切的感受到，对农村部分计划生育家庭实行奖励扶助，解决计划生育家庭的现实问题，这是推行计划生育的治本之策，特别对河南这样的农业人口大省尤其重要，必须责无旁贷地做好试点工作。     

顺德市人口、资源、环境与可持续发展

本文模拟了顺德市在不实行计划生育政策的条件下的人口增长情况 ,结果发现由于计划生育 ,在 1971- 1998年间 ,顺德市少生了 5 0多万人口 ,从而使顺德市的人口、资源、环境在经济高速发展的情况下仍能基本协调。文章也分析了顺德市目前的人口、资源与环境可持续发展的状况和问题 ,并提出了一些建议     

改变资金投向 搞好农村计生工作

我国计生工作取得举世瞩目的成绩,1979—1989年由于实行计划生育政策,我国少生了2亿多人口。随着工作的深入,工作重点转移到农村,难度也增加了。70年代,刚推行计生工作时,全国960万平方公里的土地上都轰轰烈烈地进行,而目前计生工作的重点转移到农村,似有城市包围     

有关育龄人群避孕节育的几点启示 --5省家庭发展调查结果分析

实行计划生育 ,控制人口增长 ,最终是通过育龄夫妇采取避孕节育措施实现的。因此 ,育龄夫妇采取避孕措施的比例对于人口发展起着十分重要的作用。为了了解近 2 0年来开展计划生育工作给家庭所带来的变化 ,了解育龄群众的避孕节育状况以及生育水平的变化 ,国家计生委宣教司组织有关专家于 2 0 0 0年 5月进行了《中国计划生育家庭发展与变化调查》 ,共对吉林、浙江、湖北、广东、甘肃 5省 5个县的 6 0 0 0多户、2 36 1 7人进行了调查。调查样本点的人均国民生产总值接近全国平均水平 ,调查数据可以在一定程度上反映全国情况。现就调查中关于群…     

梁王村“关爱女孩”树新风

为了使农村独生子女、双女户家庭优先分享新农村建设成果，自觉实行计划生育“不想生”，在已推行的计划生育家庭“七减免”、“九优先”的奖励优惠政策的基础上，港北区进一步加大财政投入，完善奖励帮扶制度，对计划生育家庭实行“四项优惠政策”，通过落实实实在在的政策进一步建立完善了计划生育利益导向机制，     

中国计划生育政策的人口效果评估

文章利用人口动力系统的人口发展方程,通过对不同方案1972~2000年间人口变动的模拟比较,发现计划生育政策实施的28年间中国累计少出生人口在2.64亿~3.20亿之间,总人口累计少增加2.31亿~2.99亿。同时,计划生育政策对人口出生率降低的最小贡献为57.88%,对人口自然增长率的降低贡献了61.21%。计划生育政策的实施,使总的劳动负担得到减轻,使20世纪末21世纪初迎来中国人口年龄结构的“黄金时期”,为社会经济发展提供最佳的机会、人力资源和条件,为实现人口可持续发展创造了可选择的良好人口环境和初始条件。     

家庭养老在人口老龄化过程中的重要作用及其面临的挑战

由于近20多年中国实行了比较严格的计划生育政策，导致生育率的快速下降，并使人口年龄结构向老龄化方向转变，老年人口占总人口的比重正在快速提高。至1990年第四次人口普查时，中国6O岁以上老年人口占总人口的比重达到了8．6％，老年人口数量达到了9700万①。至1994年，中国60岁以上老年人口的比重达到了9．7％，老年人口总数达到了1．2亿②。特别值得注意的是，近年来，中国人口老龄化的速度成为世界上最快的国家之一。1982－1994年，中国老年人口年平均增长率为3－4％，平均每年增加300—400万人。根据大量预测，中国未来几十年内老龄…     

统筹解决人口问题 连续15年实现人口零增长

山东省烟台市计划生育工作起步于20世纪60年代末,全面推行于70年代。多年来,全市始终坚持统筹解决人口问题,通过夯实基层基础、开展宣传教育、完善利益导向、提高人口素质、关爱计生家庭等多项措施,群众婚育观念发生了深刻变化。2012年,烟台市共出生人口5.65万人,符合政策生育率98.8‰,出生人口性别比为106.4,人口出生率8.7‰,人口自然增长率为-0.5‰,连续第1 5年实现人口零增长。从烟台市实行计划生育以来,全市累计少出生人口950万人,相当于全市现有人口的近1.5倍。人口计生工作连续23年荣获全省人口目标责任制考核一等奖。全市所有县市区全部荣获全国优质服务先进县称号,实现全覆盖。2012年10月,     

India's population: second and growing

Attention in this discussion of the population of India is directed to the following: international comparisons, population pressures, trends in population growth (interstate variations), sex ratio and literacy, urban-rural distribution, migration (interstate migration, international migration), fertility and mortality levels, fertility trends (birth rate decline, interstate fertility differentials, rural-urban fertility decline, fertility differentials by education and religion, marriage and fertility), mortality trends (mortality differentials, health care services), population pressures on socioeconomic development (per capita income and poverty, unemployment and employment, increasing foodgrain production, school enrollment shortfalls), the family planning program, implementing population policy statements, what actions would be effective, and goals and prospects for the future. India's population, a total of 684 million persons as of March 1, 1981, is 2nd only to the population of China. The 1981 population was up by 136 million persons, or 24.75%, over the 548 million enumerated in the 1971 census. For 1978, India's birth and death rates were estimated at 33.3 and 14.2/1000 population, down from about 41.1 and 18.9 during the mid-1960s. India's current 5-year plan has set a goal of a birth rate of 30/1000 population by 1985 and "replacement-level" fertility--about 2.3 births per woman--by 1996. The acceleration in India's population growth has come mainly in the past 3 decades and is due primarily to a decline in mortality that has markedly outstripped the fertility decline. The Janata Party which assumed government leadership in March 1977 did not dismantle the family planning program, but emphasis was shifted to promote family planning "without any compulsion, coercion or pressures of any sort." The policy statement stressed that efforts were to be directed towards those currently underserved, mainly in rural areas. Hard targets were rejected. Over the 1978-1981 period the family planning program slowly recovered. By March 1981, 33.4 million sterilizations had been performed since 1956 when statistics were 1st compiled. Another 3 million couples were estimated to be using IUDs and conventional contraceptives.     

Irrational international economic order is an obstacle

China is a socialist and developing country. As the most populous country in the world, China has a population now of over 1 billion, making up more than 1/5 of the total world population. However, China has a rather poor economic and educational foundation to start with. This is particularly true in the rural areas, where 80% of the total population lives. The problem of population increase and decrease in arable land has grown more acute. Hence, the Chinese Government has been promoting family planning since the 1970s. The Constitution of the People's Republic of China explicitly stipulates that "the state promotes family planning so that population growth may fit the plan for economic and social development." Thanks to the implementation of the basic state policy of family planning, the blind population growth is turning into a planned one. It is estimated by the fertility rate of the 1970s that 200 million births have been averted during the last 16 years. Thus, China has made contributions to the stability of the world's population. Were China to allow its population to grow blindly instead of having practiced family planning over the past 10 years, the world population would be substantially over 5 billion by the middle of this year.     

The Astonishing Population Averted by China’s Birth Restrictions: Estimates,Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions

China launched an unprecedented program to control its population in 1971. Experts have dismissed the official estimate of 400 million births averted by this program as greatly exaggerated yet neglect to provide their own estimates. Counterfactual projections based on fertility declines in other countries suggest that China’s program-averted population numbered 360–520 million as of 2015. The low end of this range is based on Vietnam—China’s best national comparator, with a two-child program of its own—and the high end is based on a 16-country comparator selected, ironically, by critics of the official estimate. The latter comparator further implies that China’s one-child program itself averted a population of 400 million by 2015, three-quarters of the total averted population. All such estimates are projected to double by 2060, due mostly to counterfactual population momentum. These and other findings presented herein affirm the astonishing impact of China’s draconian policy choices and challenge the current consensus that rapid socioeconomic progress drove China’s fertility well below two children per family. International comparisons of fertility and income suggest instead that China’s very low fertility arrived two or three decades too soon. If China had not harshly enforced a norm of 1.5-children during the last quarter century, most mothers would have had two children, one-half birth higher than observed.     

A better future is ahead of us

China's family planning program is implemented under the unified leadership of the Chinese government. The main responsibilities under this program are to set up and strengthen family planning offices at all levels, formulate relevent laws and regulations, work out programs, principles, and policies for population growth, carry out intensive publicity and education, speed up scientific and technological research on family planning, and mobilize all the people and related departments to support the work of family planning. Family planning in China is practised on a voluntary basis. Education on patriotism is conducted among the people to enable them to see that strict control of population growth and conscious practice of family planning according to policy have a crucial bearing on China's prosperity and well being. As shown in practice, China has not only succeeded in maintaining sustained and steady economic growth, but has also succeeded in drastically reducing the population birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate, and in extending average life expectancy. This demonstrates the superiority of China's socialist system. To control the growth of the population is an extremely arduous task. However, as long as China keeps to a practical and effective policy, the goal of keeping the total population at around 1.2 billion by the end of the century can be attained.     

Thinking about several problems of the research of our family planning strategy]

On the basis of 1982 census data, it is estimated that from 1987-1997 13 million women will enter the age of marriage and child-bearing each year. The tasks of keeping the population size around 1.2 billion by the year 2000 is arduous. Great efforts have to be made to continue encouraging one child/couple, and to pursue the current plans and policies and maintain strict control over fertility. Keeping population growth in pace with economic growth, environment, ecological balance, availability of per capita resources, education programs, employment capability, health services, maternal and child care, social welfare and social security should be a component of the long term development strategy of the country. Family planning is a comprehensive program which involves long cycles and complicated factors, viewpoints of expediency in guiding policy and program formulation for short term benefits are inappropriate. The emphasis of family planning program strategy should be placed on the rural areas where the majority of population reside. Specifically, the major aspects of strategic thrusts should be the linkage between policy implementation and reception, between family planning publicity and changes of ideation on fertility; the integrated urban and rural program management relating to migration and differentiation of policy towards minority population and areas in different economic development stages. In order to achieve the above strategies, several measures are proposed. (1) strengthening family planning program and organization structure; (2) providing information on population and contraception; (3) establishing family planning program network for infiltration effects; (4) using government financing, taxation, loan, social welfare and penalty to regulate fertility motivations; (5) improving the system of target allocation and data reporting to facilitate program implementation; (6) strengthening population projection and policy research; (7) and strengthening training of family planning personnel to improve program efficiency.     

Minister Wang Wei on family planning policy and population aging

Mr. Wang Wei, Minister-in-Charge of the State Family Planning Commission, was interviewed by the correspondent of the magazine "Outlook Weekly" on the 16th of last July in Beijing. Mr. Wang Wei said that the aging process of China's population could not be separated from the family planning program which was an important factor leading to China's population aging. He also said that population aging in China would have its limit as any development does. The aging of China's population is the manifestation of the contradiction between the unplanned and planned reproduction of its population. Population aging will disappear as soon as the contradiction is settled. Since the aging of China's population is caused by the decrease of children, one cannot only see the social burden aggravated by the relative increase in elderly population but should also see the social burden alleviated by the decrease in the absolute number of children. Only by doing so can one see the whole picture. The allegation made by some people that the social dependency ratio would increase due to population aging is groundless. Mr. Wang Wei does not agree with the viewpoint that China may relax its policy of family planning to some extent on the ground that population aging causes the decrease in the total social dependency ratio so as to ease the difficulties brought about by the rapid population aging. The basic state policy of striving to quadruple the gross output value of industry and agriculture and to control China's population at about 1.2 billion at the end of the century is the correct policy to solve the problem of population aging in China, and it is also the only alternative.     

The relationships between population and economy, and between population and education]

The relationship between population and economy is regarded seriously by China and other countries. This problem can be analyzed and studied under 2 aspects: 1) the influence of economic development on changes in population, and 2) the influence of population increases on economic development. Under the 1st aspect, improved living conditions, hygiene, and health care generally result in lowered mortality rates. Improved economic conditions in China also increased the birthrate and at the same time increased birth control among the people; the increased birthrate was due to more marriages after liberation. In economically advanced countries, due to high expenses in raising children, people tend to limit family sizes to 2 children/family. Under the 2nd aspect, population increases place strains on the food supply and nutritional requirements, especially when increases are too rapid. They also demand more educational resources and influence quality of education. As there are currently 210 million students in China, the quality of education suffers, particularly at the college level, since most of Chinese manpower, physical and financial resources are spent on primary and secondary education. In terms of housing, transportation, health care, and natural resources, they are all intimately related to and influenced by increases in population. Consequently, the living standard would be difficult to raise if population increases are too rapid. Since 1971, population increases have been incorporated into 5-yearly and later yearly national economic plans in China. The large Chinese population is a major obstacle in raising the Chinese economic level, hence a well-planned population control program is essential.     

Speech at the UN International Conference on Population,Mexico City,August, 1984

In seeking a solution to its population problem, China, as a developing socialist country, has been making unremitting efforts to develop economy while controlling the rapid growth. The objective is to control rapid population growth so that population growth may be in keeping with socioeconomic development and commensurate with utilization of natural resources and environmental protection. In the past decade, and particularly since 1979, China has made much progress in developing economy and gained remarkable successes in controlling population growth. The natural population growth rate dropped to 1.15% in 1983, from 2.089% in 1973. Living standards have improved with a gradual annual increase of per capita income. All this proves that the policy of promoting family planning to control population growth along with planned economic development is correct. In China family planning is a basic state policy. The government has advocated the practice of "1 couple, 1 child" since 1979. This does not mean that 1 couple could have 1 child only in every case. The government provides guidance for the implementation of family planning programs in the light of specific conditions such as economic developments, cultural background, population structure, and the wishes of the people in different localities. The requirements are more flexible in rural than in urban areas and more so among the people of national minorities than among the people of the Han Nationality. In rural areas, couples who have actual difficulties and want to have 2 children may have a 2nd birth with planned spacing. In carrying out its family planning program, China has consistently adhered to the principle of integrating state guidance with the masses' voluntariness. The government has always emphasized the importance of encouraging the people's own initiatives, through publicity and education, which is the key link in implementing the family planning program.     

Does family planning work in a Chinese way

The demographic and economic characteristics of China make it necessary to do family planning work in China in a Chinese way. Special characteristics of China and corresponding strategies are detailed 1) China is rather underproductive and underdeveloped, with a huge population, whose growth must be curtailed while industrial and agricultural production is enhanced. 2) In the next 10 years, a large number of young people will center childbearing age, prompting a government policy favoring late marriage and one child per couple. 3) China is large and heterogeneous, and regional authorities should have some population policymaking functions to take sociocultural differences into account. 4) Male child preference ideology in rural areas has been gently combated with a resulting increase in family planning rate from 65.1% to 74.2% from 1979 to 1983. Family planning authorities have made considerable progress, as demonstrated by figures such as a drop of women's total fertility rate from 5.68 in the 60s to 2.07 in the 70s. The task at hand remains large: the population at the end of 1983 was 1,024,950,000. However, family planning is an element of state policy, the marriage law, and the constitution, and mored an more, societal ideology. Government policy equates family planning with child wellness and societal welfare and attempts supportiveness of couples showing positive birth limiting attitudes. An ample system of family planning programs and resource persons furnishes education, a variety of high quality methods are available, and contraceptive research is some of the best in the world.     

再论“四二一”结构:定义与研究方法

"四二一"结构是中国低生育率背景下家庭结构与代际关系的一种特殊表达,既反映了20世纪70年代以来计划生育政策广泛推行对中国家庭的深刻影响,又揭示了中国现阶段婚姻家庭乃至未来人口发展的特点与趋势。目前这一领域的研究虽然已经取得一系列的进展,但在概念界定与使用的方法上仍缺乏共识,导致研究结论的分歧和研究拓展的迟滞。在中国社会剧烈变动的形势下,"四二一"结构是研究中国的计划生育政策、独生子女问题,以及家庭结构与代际关系变动的一个良好的载体和切入点。