Where is the Fed in the distribution of forecasters?

Previous research comparing the Fed's Greenbook forecasts with a median forecast from a private-sector panel has found that the Fed's forecasts are superior. These comparisons potentially miss information from other parts of the distribution of forecast errors. We compare the Fed's forecast errors to the upper and lower quartiles from the Survey of Professional Forecasters’ forecast errors and find that errors in the lower quartile are significantly smaller. We further investigate whether the forecasters who produced those forecast errors can be identified ex-ante and find that while possible the practicality of this finding is limited due to forecaster turnover.     

The role of identity in South Korea’s policies towards Japan

This paper asks why South Korea’s relations with Japan is so vulnerable to disputes over history in the post-Cold War period. It argues that South Korea’s identities vis-à-vis Japan and North Korea respectively conflict with each other and leads to inconsistent policy towards Japan that hovers between cooperation and discord. By analyzing South Korea’s relations with Japan as well as its policies and behavior in the post-Cold War period, this paper aims to show how identity factor affects a state’s foreign policy and behavior towards other states. In doing so, it questions the rationality assumption of state behavior in IR and offers alternative explanations on how to better understand “emotional” foreign policies.     

‘Modern’ parenting and the uses of childcare advice in post-war England

In the post-war English media, ‘modern’ parenting referred to psychologically inspired styles of parenting drawn from professionals. Drawing on archived social-science interviews with over 600 families, this article considers what ‘modern’ parenting meant in the vernacular. It explores the emergence of a group of working-class parents who felt ‘modern’ because they had adopted whichever style of parenting they felt ‘right’ for their child, whatever its source. These parents personalized ‘modern’ ideas found in the mass media, using them to justify choices which they had already made. They came to identify as flexible, adaptive, parents, rather than as people who unquestioningly implemented someone else’s ideas. Using reflexive models of selfhood, they produced a syncretic amalgamation of ideas about parenting, which were drawn, simultaneously, from childcare professionals, members of their communities and their own intuitions. This allowed them to fashion unique styles of parenting, tailored to their children. Rethinking what was ‘modern’ and ‘traditional’ let them reconceive parenting as a personal matter, not as something which professionals or kin should dictate. The post-war fixation on the self was therefore consonant with the ‘reworking’ of class, rather than with its declining salience in English society.     

Where Do the Problems Lie in the Reform of Chinese Institutions?

Since the mid-1980s,China has takenbroad measures in the reform of itsinstitutions.Though such reform efforts haveseen substantial achievements,some dys-functional incentives have been introducedin the provision of services.Improving theprovision of services calls for a profoundand long-term reform that will deal with pay-ments and incentives in a coordinated way.The payment mechanismChina faces two challenges in paymentfor services.The first is to readjust the divi-sion of payment responsibi…     

Resettled Refugees and Food Insecurity in the U.S.; Exploring the Caseworker’s Role

When refugees arrive in their new resettlement country, they are designated to work with a caseworker employed with a resettlement agency who helps them acclimate to their new environment and break down new challenges. Food insecurity is one such challenge that resettled refugees face. This study looked at the role that caseworkers play in helping clients navigate food security. Eight caseworkers from three resettlement agencies participated in semistructured qualitative interviews. Data analysis revealed four categories: the caseworker’s role, linking clients to benefits, concerns about food, and caseworkers’ perspectives. The main concerns revolved around federal food assistance benefits, reflecting past study findings, and warrants further investigation into the efficacy of such programs. Moreover, the caseworkers’ perceived role in terms of food security was vague and inexplicit from the Cooperative Agreement protocols. Food security focused training could improve caseworker’s capacity to help clients adapt to their new food environment.     

America’s policy thinking in the age of Trump

What is striking in Trumpian economics – supply-side economics too – is the omission of economic growth. There is no awareness that nations at the frontier need indigenous innovation to have ample growth. The take-offs into sustained growth in 19th century Britain and America were fueled by dynamism from the grassroots up. Moreover, this stunted economics has no room for the rewards from participating in the economy besides the market wage – for the satisfaction of succeeding at what one is doing, the sense of flourishing as one’s career unfolds, and the thrill of venturing into the unknown.     

Distorted policy transfer? South Korea’s adaptation of UK social enterprise policy

This study draws upon communicative processes in policy transfer to consider the ways in which policy may be adapted to context or distorted. The theoretical framework is used to investigate exactly what the South Korean government borrowed from UK social enterprise policy. Despite claims that the UK was the source of both the general policy direction and the particular regulatory device, the Korean government did not learn about the specific contexts of the British policy, nor attempt two-way communication with domestic stakeholders. Rather, the UK policy was interpreted in accordance with the Korean government’s own ideas about how to utilize social enterprise. Historical legacies of top-down decision-making played an important role in this process, as did the state’s role as a regulator which mobilizes the private sector to achieve policy goals. The consequences have been negative for those organizations refused social enterprise status under the Ministry of Labor’s strict approval system, as well as for the original target population: the socially disadvantaged and vulnerable. It is suggested that the model advanced may help to illuminate the reasons why some borrowed policies differ considerably from the originals, and the use of policy transfer as a means of legitimization.     

The senator’s tale: the development of Bremen’s bourgeoisie in the post-1945 era

Were members of the German bourgeoisie capable of forming the foundation for a new self-understanding of post-1945German society? Or did they prove to be unsuited as agents of Germany’s new beginning? This article seeks to answer these questions by focusing on historical developments in the early phase of the Federal Republic of Germany as reflected in the biography of one prominent representative of the German bourgeoisie. Theodor Spitta, who was born in 1873, was elected in 1911as a senator for life in the government of the Free Hanse City of Bremen. Spitta was an outstanding representative of a generation socialized under the last German Kaiser, a generation which perceived itself as part of a politically liberal Bremen bourgeoisie. He feared the gradual decline, indeed the disintegration of his class. None the less – or perhaps for that very reason – he committed himself to the goal of restoring a regionally specific form of bourgeois life in the city of Bremen. Although Spitta declared a ‘farewell to the bourgeoisie’ in his autobiographical texts, that did not prevent him from actively pursuing the revival of a unique urban-bourgeois ‘spirit’. This spirit was to serve as a tool in promoting Bremen’s central political goal in post-1945Germany: the preservation of the city-state’s unique status within Germany’s federal system.     

The impact of population aging in rich countries: What’s the future?

The paper examines the impact of population ageing on macroeconomic outcomes, inflation and labour force participation employing a sample of 23 OECD developed countries from 1960 to 2014 and accounting for the institutional context. Controlling for collective bargaining coordination the results show that a larger elderly share of population would lead to lower real GDP growth, albeit mostly in countries with low population growth rates. Ageing puts substantial downward pressure on inflation due to subdued aggregate demand. Also, results demonstrate that the ageing of the workforce tends to reduce labour supply. To mitigate any adverse effects of population ageing, a combination of labour market policies, pension reforms, greater investment in human capital and technological innovation should be prioritized in policy making.     

What Makes for Successful Groupwork? A Survey of Agencies in the UK

Summary This paper reports the findings of a survey of Social ServicesDepartments, Probation Services and the major voluntary agenciesin the UK. The survey aimed to shed light on the factors whichpromote successful groups in social work and probation agencies.The survey did not attempt to map the extent of current groupwork.A questionnaire was piloted in a Social Services Departmentin northern England with social work and social care practitionersparticipating in ‘The Groupwork Project’, a trainingand development programme which continues to have as its aimthe establishment of a groupwork service in a mainstream socialservices agency. The survey was designed to be illuminativeand exploratory rather than conclusive. In this paper, the authorsreflect on the research process and on the findings of the survey.These findings point to the complexity of factors consideredsignificant to the success of a group, and to the importanceof contextual factors in establishing and sustaining a groupworkservice.     

Localization of Marxism in China and the Construc-tion of China’s Modernity

现代性在中国的生成与建构,是与马克思主义中国化历史地联系在一起的;中国现代性的建构,也历史地确定了马克思主义中国化的起点、任务与方向。马克思主义中国化的理论任务就是要求确立以建设为核心的观念、以促进人与社会的全面发展为主旨的马克思主义理论话语系统,构造一套符合全球化时代要求、有利于中华民族复兴及长治久安、并具有自检与防御机制及能力的开放性的社会、政治与文化体系。     

Exploring the Australian policy context relating to women’s reproductive choices

This study explored Australian federal level policy instruments which influence and impact on women’s reproductive choices and the consequences of those choices. A systematic policy search and mapping exercise was undertaken. Eighteen policy instruments were identified at the Federal level and were explored through a policy framework and thematic analysis. Findings indicate there are multiple layers of influence on women’s reproductive choices and the consequences of those choices, and the policy instruments interact in multiple dynamic, interconnected and contextual ways. Yet, they also lack cohesion and congruency, failing to account for women’s life circumstances while at the same time shifting the promoted position for women in each policy instrument. The policy instruments seek to regulate, control and selectively support women’s reproduction while simultaneously silencing, marginalising and reprimanding some groups of women.     

What happens after compulsory education? Problems of continuity and possible policies in the case of Spain

The lack of opportunities to enter post-compulsory education in Spain and other countries in southern Europe is a serious problem from the point of view of the requirements of the productive system as well as the social inequality that it creates. This article analyses the effect of a range of variables on that lack of opportunity and various public policy measures are proposed that are directed towards reinforcing the continuity of young people in the education system. The analysis is carried out through the proposal and estimation of a multinomial logistic regression model that permits the identification of factors associated with the process of passing from compulsory education to the possibilities that are open when this finishes (with regard to the education system and the labor market). The model is applied to a sample of individuals of 16 and 17 years of age from the European Community Household Panel in the year 2000 wave. The analysis allows the identification of two groups of variables that affect the probability of following the different paths that are open at the end of compulsory education. On the one hand, there is social and cultural background (reflected in variables such as the social class and education of the parents) and on the other, there is the region of residence, the effect of which derives essentially from the differences that exist between the labor markets. The article concludes by putting forward a set of mainly educational public policies that have the object of increasing access to post-compulsory education. These policies are mostly equity oriented.     

Dynamic contractual incentives in the face of a Samaritans’s dilemma

We design a project funding contract that provides optimal incentives to agents, in a setting where both principal and agent enjoy the benefits of the project in a non-rival form once completed but may differ in their valuation. To do so, we study optimal incentive payments in a dynamic principal-agent framework in which the principal cannot observe the agent’s investment, but only completed projects, and faces a Samaritan’s Dilemma: he cannot commit to terminate the contract before completion of the project. The agent decides whether to undertake a (discrete) investment or consume all received funds. We find that the optimal contract is stationary, and that either transfers equal to investment cost are incentive compatible or the cost of the contract is decreasing with the agent’s valuation of the projects. Given the intrinsic valuation of the project by the agent, he is always better off signing the contract in contraposition with the general moral hazard result.