Who Are the Poor?

Here we present the subject of poverty in the United States as one that is central to a concern with social issues and justice and argue that its relative invisibility in psychology reflects the discipline's dominant middle-class standpoint. We describe, first, the articles in this issue, which are focused particularly on the voices of poor women in the United States. Then we examine poverty in terms of its economic indicators as well as its experiential correlates.     

Are the poor worse at dealing with ambiguity?

This paper studies the relationship between people’s ambiguity attitudes and income in the field using language as a natural source of ambiguity. It shows that the method of Baillon et al. (2017b) can be adapted for field studies, providing ambiguity measurement tasks that are more comprehensible for nonacademic subjects. Ambiguity attitudes were elicited in two groups of Chinese adolescents (poor rural and rich urban), among whom the income variation is big. In the rural group the poorer are both more ambiguity averse and more a-insensitive, whereas in the urban group the richer are more a-insensitivite. On average, the poor rural adolescents are worse at dealing with ambiguity than their urban counterparts. A-insensitivity, which measures people’s understanding of an ambiguous situation, is an important but sometimes neglected component of ambiguity attitude. Policies aiming to help people improve decisions may focus more on reducing a-insensitivity as this cognitive bias is more likely to be influenced by intervention than people’s intrinsic aversion towards ambiguity.     

Does female employment affect fertility? Evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper tests the validity of the proposition that there is a causal relationship between fertility choice and female employment in a multivariate framework during the period 1958–1998 in the United Kingdom. Following recent advances in economic and demographic theory the nexus between female employment and fertility is reexamined taking into account changes in the labor market and the overall real economic activity. Our key finding is that expanding the estimating equations to control for the influences of changes in real wages and real output creates a positive relationship between fertility and female employment and a negative relationship between fertility and real wages. Finally, fertility choice should not be considered exogenous to the female employment, the labor market or the growth process.     

Are people overoptimistic about the effects of heavy drinking?

We test whether heavy or binge drinkers are overly optimistic about probabilities of adverse consequences from these activities or are relatively accurate about these probabilities. Using data from a survey in eight cities, we evaluate the relationship between subjective beliefs and drinking. We assess accuracy of beliefs about several outcomes of heavy/binge drinking: reduced longevity, liver disease onset, link between alcohol consumption and Driving While Intoxicated (DWI), probability of an accident after drinking, accuracy of beliefs about encountering intoxicated drivers on the road, and legal consequences of DWI—ranging from being stopped to receiving fines and jail terms. Overall, there is no empirical support for the optimism bias hypothesis. We do find that persons consuming a lot of alcohol tend to be more overconfident about their driving abilities and ability to handle alcohol. However, such overconfidence does not translate into over-optimism about consequences of high levels of alcohol consumption.     

Does export concentration matter in economic adjustment programs? Evidence from the euro-area

The recent crisis in some euro area countries is intensively fueling the political and economic policy debate about the effectiveness of the applied adjustment programs. This paper aims to contribute to explaining why the results of these programs could be different across countries, flagging the crucial role of exports. In view of recent economic literature about substitution between domestic and foreign sales, helping exports when domestic demand is adjusting, this paper uses panel data techniques to assess the role of the export structure in explaining this substitution effect in the euro area countries. Building a novel indicator for product concentration, the results suggest that domestic demand developments are more relevant to explaining exports in countries with a lower product concentration index (that is, more diversified exports). This contributes to explain why euro area countries under stress registered different economic performance, in particular the clearly less favorable behavior of Greece, where exports structure is concentrated more strongly in some goods and services than in other euro area countries. With different export behavior the final evaluation of the Greek adjustment would be certainly different. These results suggest that export structure should be taken into consideration when designing or evaluating this type of adjustment programs.     

Meritocracy in the awarding of research grants? Evidence from Social Science Korea

In 2010, the Korean government launched a new funding scheme for social scientists, Social Science Korea (SSK). Contrary to conventional grant programs, the SSK adopted a competition scheme among research teams by eliminating those who failed to pass annual evaluations, while, at the same time, emphasizing cooperation and interdisciplinary research. Substantial research has documented the determinants of receiving research grants in Western countries, but little is known about how these determinants operate in Korean academia. Using results from the stage evaluations of the SSK, we estimate logistic regression models. The results indicate that factors of meritocracy, such as publication record, strongly affect the likelihood of success, but so do political factors, such as a PI obtaining his or her doctoral degree from a foreign institution. The importance of a PI’s gender and age, and of being located in Seoul, is not supported by the data.     

Who should cast the casting vote? Using sequential voting to amalgamate information

In this study, we are concerned with how agents can best amalgamate their private information about a binary state of Nature. The agents are heterogeneous in their “ability”, the quality of their private information. The agents cannot directly communicate their private information but instead can only vote between the two states (say “Innocent” or “Guilty” on a criminal jury). We first describe possible methods of sequential majority voting, and then we analyze a particular one: the first \(n-1\) jurors vote simultaneously and, in the case of a tie, the remaining juror has the casting vote. We prove that when \(n=3\) (a common situation for a tribunal of three judges), the probability of a correct verdict is maximized when the agent of median ability has the casting vote.     

Are Private Interests Clouding the Peer-Review Process of the WHO Bulletin? A Case Study

Readers’ trust on the medical literature has been eroded, and journal editors and some editorial boards are taking measures to ensure that authors fully and accurately report research findings and disclose conflicts of interest. This article describes a case study in which the papers editor of the World Health Organization (WHO) Bulletin influenced the content of an article that had been approved by the external reviewers. The editor objected to the publication of the large price differentials of the new molecular entities (NMEs) across the Latin American countries where they had been tested and the limited added therapeutic value of the NMEs that had been assessed by independent drug bulletins. This article summarizes the exchanges with WHO staff and posits the hypothesis that the WHO Bulletin might be affected by the shifts in WHO financing. Several authors have raised concern about the impact of financial conflicts of interest in WHO activities in the field of nutrition, intellectual property, and in the emergency response to the flu pandemic. Moreover, it has been reported that powerful WHO contributors pressured WHO into revising its publication policy. This is the first time that authors question if these conflicts of interest are also affecting the editorial independence of the WHO Bulletin.     

Does the Internet increase labor productivity? Evidence from a cross-country dynamic panel

The Internet has various economic functions and is a fundamental part of most economic activities and transactions. In this paper we apply a Dynamic Panel Data approach to study the impact of the Internet on labor productivity using data from 108 countries for the period 1995–2010. The results of the study show that the Internet has positive and statistically significant effects on labor productivity. Assuming other factors stay constant, increasing the number of Internet users by one percent increases GDP per employed person by $8.16–14.6. Educational expenditures as a percentage of GNI, per capita health expenditures, trade and gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP also have positive and statistically significant effects on labor productivity.     

Are official forecasts of output growth in the EU still biased?

An effective budgetary process requires accurate forecasts of future economic activity. Using data from Stability and Convergence Programmes and the European Commission’s Spring Forecasts, evidence is presented here which indicates deficiencies in official forecasting in the EU arising under the enhanced EU fiscal framework. Forecasts of output growth are unduly pessimistic, irrational, and influenced by recent economic activity. The article considers the reasons for and implications of such biases and proposes improvements to forecasting processes that could address these issues.     

Are Conditional Cash Transfer programs for women? Engendering the Philippine Pantawid

Evaluation studies reveal positive outcomes of Conditional Cash Transfer program. This program, however, warrants an analysis using the lens of gender. Based on interview data among selected Pantawid's national, regional, provincial, and municipal personnel, as well as secondary data, this article finds that the program has limited impact on gender justice for it restricts the agency of mothers as grantees. For a social development program to perform democratizing functions, it must challenge unequal, patriarchal relations.     

Do we follow others when we should outside the lab? Evidence from the AP top 25

We use data from the Associated Press college American football poll to analyze two types of ex-post optimality of social learning in a non-lab setting. The poll is a weekly subjective ranking of the top 25 teams, voted on by over 60 sports journalists. Voters potentially can learn from their peers by observing the aggregate ranks before updating their individual ranks. Our results indicate that, while voters do learn from their peers to some extent, the informativeness of peer ranks appears to be under-valued.     

Does research and development expenditure impact innovation? Evidence from the European Union countries

This study empirically investigates the relationship between innovation and Research & Development expenditure in European Union countries over the period 1995–2014. The findings of the empirical analysis show that there is a co-integration relationship between innovation and R&D. The results also reveal the existence of a positive and significant effect of business, public and higher education R&D on innovation. Business R&D is the sector with the highest positive effect on innovation. The results indicate that EU should strengthen the cooperation between business, public and higher education R&D through the encouragement of partnerships between the private sector, R&D and innovation system.     

Can cities be held responsible for early school leaving? Evidence from the Netherlands

This paper examines if ‘naming and shaming’ is an effective tool to increase accountability in school dropout for cities with disadvantaged student populations. It argues that a comparison with other cities might be unfair if regional and population characteristics differ. It discusses the example of two Dutch new towns. The new town policy deliberately attracted low- and medium-income households in the past, such that today the population of those cities differs from other cities. We use a matching analysis to account for observed differences in population and regional characteristics. The results point out that ‘naming and shaming’ may be a dangerous policy to increase accountability: early school leaving differences are driven, to a large extent, by observed differences in population and regional characteristics.     

Are Quasi‐markets in Education what the British Public Wants?

In the context of inconclusive evidence on the extrinsic successes of quasi‐markets, policy defences of school choice and competition in education have often discussed the intrinsic, empowering value of choice for consumers, arguing that school choice for parents is ‘what people want’. Discourses often imply that choice is desired for its own sake rather than merely as a means by which families can escape what are deemed to be poor quality schools. Support for an idealistic, abstract notion of ‘choice’ is also taken to imply support for quasi‐markets overall and is not considered alongside possible competing values that people may hold at the same time as they value choice. Additionally, views of parents are often examined without considering possible differences in views between parents and non‐parents. Contributing to debates about how far a public desire exists for quasi‐markets in education, this article draws on data from newly designed questions fielded as part of the 2010 British Social Attitudes survey. The article finds that while choice ‘in the abstract’ is supported widely by both parents and non‐parents (albeit slightly more so by parents), a valuing of choice among the British public appears to be more instrumental than intrinsic – potentially problematic given evidence on the extrinsic benefits of quasi‐markets is mixed. Support for choice is tempered among parents and non‐parents by clear opposition to vouchers, school diversity, government spending on transport costs to facilitate choice and by strong support for the idea of sending children to the ‘nearest state school’.     

Are there monetary clusters in the Eurozone? The impact of ECB policy

This paper analyses what effects the monetary policy of the European Central Bank have on the economic activity of Eurozone countries. We identify groups of countries which exhibit different economic responses to monetary policy and the factors driving such spatial differences. We distinguish three periods, spanning from 2001 to 2017 and examine conventional as well as unconventional monetary policies in different economic backgrounds of expansion and crisis. We find problems of spatially asymmetric transmission of monetary policy in the period 2008M10–2014M12 and note that different spatial responses might operate in favour of monetary policy or be indifferent to this policy.