Central bank credibility and monetary policy in Indonesia

This paper examines the role of central bank credibility in achieving an inflation target and proposes monetary policy rules for Indonesia. Towards that end, we construct and estimate a forward-looking small scale macroeconomic model (SSMM) of the Indonesian economy by adapting the theoretical underpinnings of the well-known Batini–Haldane model, along with the Taylor policy rule. Our results indicate that it is crucial for the Indonesian central bank to bolster its credibility in order to achieve a lower inflation rate. The inflation–output volatility trade-off frontier we derived from the SSMM shows that a monetary policy rule that targets both inflation and output gaps will result in less macroeconomic volatility. We also found that the inclusion of the exchange rate into the rule as an additional feedback variable warrants consideration in the future course of monetary policy management.     

Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia

It has long been recognised that the balance between backward-looking and forward-looking expectations has critical policy implications. This is because backward-looking expectations impart a substantial degree of inertia to the inflation rate whereas forward-looking expectations lead to rapid adjustment in response to shocks. In this paper we examine the policy implications for the Indonesian economy of the form taken by the price adjustment equation. We allow for both backward-looking and forward-looking effects of inflation expectations, proxying forward expectations with the realised rate and using a GMM estimator to allow for the resulting endogeneity. Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, our estimates show that CPI inflation in Indonesia is significantly determined by backward-looking inflation expectations, forward-looking inflation expectations, the output gap, exchange rate depreciation, and money growth. However, the backward expectation attracts a significantly higher weight than the forward rate leading to the conclusion that inflation in Indonesia has considerable inertia. The implication of this is that a gradualist monetary policy is likely to be more effective as a means of smoothing fluctuations in inflation and real output.     

Building a partnership for social service delivery in Indonesia: state and faith‐based organisations

Contrary to the secularisation processes in modernisation theory, religions and faith‐based organisations (FBOs) are thriving in contemporary Indonesia. Strongly supported by community members, religious organisations have begun to extend their services beyond the traditional areas of education and health to operate in disaster relief and poverty alleviation programmes. These FBOs have been offering assistance to the disadvantaged whose needs have not been adequately met by the state. Social programmes run by the FBOs are an important safety net at the grass‐roots level in Indonesia; how to effectively coordinate and offer such services are important social policy issues. This paper will show that the Indonesian Government is keen to remain the key provider of social services and often perceives the services of FBOs as a threat. Some recent state policies to regulate the funding sources of Islamic organisations have posed a significant logistical challenge for their future operation. In addition, theological differences across various religious groups have made it difficult to form inclusive and extensive partnerships among the FBOs, who tend to compete with each another resulting in rivalry. These socio‐political contexts have limited the formation of effective partnerships for offering coordinated social services.     

Bringing Indonesia into the global welfare regime debate: A literature review and future research agenda

Studies on welfare state regimes have been dominated by consideration of rich OECD/European and increasingly East Asian countries/territories, leaving South Asian cases such as Indonesia underexplored. The few existing studies that have explicitly tried to conceptualize the Indonesian welfare regime have resulted in little consensus. To address the resulting lack of clarity, this article reviews scholarly articles relevant to bringing Indonesia into the global welfare regime debate, specifically encapsulating how the country has been classified compared with its East Asia counterparts. Accordingly, we find that existing studies have mainly concentrated on the Indonesian health care and social protection expansion, which has led authors to conclude that this evolution demonstrates Indonesia's transition away from welfare productivism. By contrast, we argue that Indonesia's productivist characteristics have largely prevailed while informal networks, clientelism, strong families, and the limited effectiveness of the civil society movement created a specific social politics in Indonesia. We thus conclude that the causal mechanisms typically attributed to welfare development in more developed welfare geographies, including East Asia, cannot fully explain the evident institutional formation in the Indonesian case. The future research agenda for studying the welfare regimes in Indonesia and other Southeast Asian countries is discussed.     

浅析印尼对外商投资的法律规制

印度尼西亚与贸易有关的法律主要包括《海关法》、《政府投资条例》以及新修订的《投资法》等。印尼的投资环境受到传统观念、政局的稳定性、军警社会化以及公职人员腐败等因素的影响。在目前印尼社会背景下,我国应把握好其政治转型过程中对我国政策的变化,关注对华人政策的变化以及充分利用好国际贸易规则与国内法律,加强重点领域的贸易,以促进中印（尼）之间的贸易与投资。     

文件治理中的政策采纳及其影响因素研究:基于国家和省级政府政策文本(2008—2018)数据

“文件治国”是中国国家治理的基本表现形态，不同中央政策在各地被采纳与实施的情况也是国家治理问题的核心研究议题。本文尝试突破以往政策扩散研究多只关注特定单项中央政策在各地扩散过程的局限，结合长时段大样本农村政策文本数据，对中央政府2008—2018年发布的多项农村政策在各地的扩散过程进行实证分析，相对系统地考察了中央层面的行政压力和经济激励，以及地方层面的执行能力和内在动力等因素及其交互作用对政策采纳的影响，进而对中国正式政策文件运作的基本过程和内在机制进行探讨。研究显示，自上而下的行政压力越大，经济激励越大，地方层面的执行能力越强，地方政府采纳中央农村政策的概率就越容易显著增加。从交互关系来看，中央政府对农村议题重视程度的提高会减小不同执行能力省份的政策采纳差异，也会减小不同经济激励政策的采纳差异。     

Public Participation in the New NHS: No Closer to Citizen Control?

Over the last decade support for increasing public participation in decisions regarding the planning and delivery of health services has become a familiar feature of the policy agenda for the UK National Health Service. This paper reviews current Labour policy towards public participation and reports on the response of primary care groups (PCGs) to recent Labour directives to make patient and public involvement an integral part of the way they work, presenting the findings of a survey conducted in one English health region. The experience of these PCGs suggests that, despite the diverse backgrounds of board members, there is marked consensus between local and central decision makers as to their understanding of public participation. Whilst academic debates have tended to conceptualize participation in dualist terms as a form of consumerism or of citizenship, the survey data suggest that in the context of local implementation public participation is framed within a new public management perspective which values it as an aid to organizational learning. The findings of this study highlight obstacles to securing effective public participation, including a lack of substantive guidance regarding policy implementation that produces uncertainty amongst local decision makers as to how best to proceed. The inherent limitations of public participation within the new public management paradigm suggest that democratic renewal, one of the goals of the government's modernization agenda, is unlikely to be achieved.     

印度尼西亚货币市场研究

由于我国货币市场在结构、信用工具、交易主体以及对货币市场的监管等方面 ,存在严重的不平衡 ,致使所实施的货币政策的效果在一定程度上受到了限制 ,因此 ,必须注重对国外货币市场发展的研究。本文将研究印度尼西亚货币市场的产生与发展、货币市场结构、信用工具、印度尼西亚货币市场中的金融机构、规范货币市场发展的措施 ,以及印度尼西亚货币市场的发展对我国的启示     

Innovation policy configuration – a comparative study of Russia and China

This paper presents a study of innovation policy configurations in two BRICS countries, Russia and China; the fastest growing and most innovative countries in recent years. Employing a three-dimensional framework which maps policy objectives, policy instruments and policy implementation, the research analyzes a database of 485 policy items issued between 1990 and 2013. Twenty-five innovation policy variables have been scrutinized vis-à-vis the three policy dimensions. The paper compares the experiences of Russia with China, across these three policy dimension areas, revealing the similarities and differences in innovation policy configurations. The research identifies how innovation management in both Russia and China has been shaped by contrasting histories, state institutions and economies. The paper offers an alternative perspective to the debate on the effective management of innovation, a debate currently dominated by the experiences of the USA, Japan and Western Europe.     

Models of economic planning under uncertainty: A selective survey and appraisal

Uncertainty and risk have played significant roles in policy making, at the micro and macro levels, from formulation of policy models to their actual implementation in several countries. The impact of risk aversion on policy making has differedm however, both in magnitude and intensity. Thus, for less developed countries with large commodity exports, stabilization policies have played a role as important as those for income growth and employment; for centrally planned economies, the investment cycles leading to large-scale divergences of actual from planned targets in strategic sectors have led policy makers to consider the need for building adequate safety margins in the planning process. Finally, for developed economies, the applied theory of indicative planning and decentralization has stressed the various informational gaps and competing risks that may impede an efficient and cooperative solution between private and public sectors. A selective survey and appraisal of the planning methods as they relate to risk and uncertainty is attempted here for less developed, centrally planned, and developed market economies.     

The relationship between open innovation,entrepreneurship, and introduction of new business models in Korean and Indonesian information technology enterprises

This case study sought to identify the relationships that can exist between open innovation, entrepreneurship, and the introduction of new business models at the enterprise level. Eleven Korean enterprises and five Indonesian enterprises were chosen, to obtain minimum research generality. While the number of enterprises is not great, it provides enough samples to determine the concrete relationships among these factors. The article starts by pointing out the general relationship between entrepreneurship, open innovation, and the introduction of a new business model. It examines two different contexts: the difference between the Seoul and Daegu regional innovation systems, and the difference between the Indonesian and Korean national innovation systems.     

Social harmony and community wellbeing

This special issue explores social harmony and community wellbeing with some examples of Asian countries. These are essential tools to fight against many social problems and meet elucidation. While these concepts are not documented well in social work literature, the articles on this special issue will provide thoughtful and valuable guidelines to the readers, academics, policy makers and researchers for expanding and improving social and community services.     

Repercussions of exchange rate depreciation on the economy of Pakistan: Simulation analysis using macroeconometric model

Expansionary and contractionary effects of exchange rate shock in developing economies has been the subject of an extensive debate but the results are inconclusive. This study has been conducted to examine the repercussions of unexpected exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistan economy. Unlike the previous literature, this study utilizes a fairly large macroeconometric model constructed on the basis of Cowles Commission structural approach. The study explores that expansionary effect of exchange rate depreciation explained by the traditional theories of open economy macroeconomics persists only for one fiscal year but these theories don’t work in the long-run as contractionary phase starts in the subsequent years. Monetary and fiscal authorities are not neutral and contractionary policy is taken in response to depreciation which pushes the economy into recession. Stagflationary effects are clearly observed. However, improvement in foreign sector prolongs for a number of years and policy makers would have to face a trade-off between opposite response of output and current account balance. Hence, unexpected depreciation generates sharp cyclical fluctuations on demand which immediately transmit to supply side of the economy. In line with the views of “New Structuralists”, exchange rate depreciation may be considered as a source of shock rather than shock absorber in the case of Pakistan economy. Although this study is specifically estimated for the Pakistan economy, authors believe that their methodological contributions and results are of wider importance for policy makers in developing countries.     

The Korean welfare state: a paradox of expansion in an era of globalisation and economic crisis

When the Asian financial crisis took a heavy toll on Korea in the late 1990s, policy makers responded by extending welfare policy. For many analysts, this was a paradoxical move, marking a fundamental reconfiguration of the social policy system. This article contests that interpretation. It examines the changes made to Korean social policy in recent years, and considers their impact on the Korean welfare state. It notes both that welfare extensions have been comparatively limited, and that they have often formed part of wider attempts to boost labour market flexibility. It thus concludes that limited expansion of the Korean welfare state is chiefly an attempt to bolster industrial competitiveness and economic growth. For now, Korea retains the productivist social policy orientation that has long characterised it. It also concedes, however, that in the future underlying social change, notably a rapidly ageing population, may prompt policy makers to make significant changes to the Korean welfare state.     

Faculty job satisfaction across gender and discipline

It is projected that by 2014 colleges, universities, and professional schools will witness an employment growth of 34.3% (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005). Thus, issues of faculty satisfaction, retention, and persistence will become increasingly important for university administrators and education policy makers. The need to study faculty satisfaction at universities also stems from the fact that the intellectual and social structures of higher education are changing over time. Increasingly, women and minorities are more likely to occupy higher ranks of the professoriate. The purpose of this research is to explore and compare the job satisfaction rates of faculty members employed in research institutions with special attention paid to differences across gender and disciplines. The study employs data from the 2003 Survey of Doctorate Recipients, which is a biennially collected survey of doctoral awardees and is funded by the National Science Foundation.     

A triple test for behavioral economics models and public health policy

We propose a triple test to evaluate the usefulness of behavioral economics models for public health policy. Test 1 is whether the model provides reasonably new insights. Test 2 is on whether these have been properly applied to policy settings. Test 3 is whether they are corroborated by evidence. We exemplify by considering the cases of social interactions models, self-control models and, in relation to health message framing, prospect theory. Out of these sets of models, only a correctly applied prospect theory fully passes the tests at present. Specifically, in broad agreement with the evidence, a gain frame has positive implications for welfare encourages disease prevention activity, though this does not apply if the perceived probability of the bad health outcome is large enough. We see our tests as being useful to identify how much health policy weight policy makers should assign to specific behavioral economic models; they are also useful to verify what next steps would be most useful in further research.     

The Poverty Situation in Indonesia: Challenges and Progress of the Marginalized Group

This paper focuses on Indonesian poverty alleviation programs. It examines the national poverty reduction programs of cash‐based support projects for the poorest of the poor and highly marginalized groups. Indonesia was the country hardest hit by the East Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. In 2005, Indonesia began unconditional cash transfers (UCT) for the first time – giving cash money to the poorest, poor and near‐poor targeted households. As a result, the income of the poorest households receiving UCT increased by 1.3 times compared to that of non‐recipients. The UCT can be seen as a new benchmark for Indonesia as a mechanism of a “shockbreaker” for the poor affected by the crisis. In 2007, the government of Indonesia began a trial of the conditional cash transfer (CCT) program known as the Hopeful Family Program (Program Keluarga Harapan or PKH). The CCT program was provided to poor families with an allowance conditional on their attention to their children’s education and health. With this program, women in the community gained access to new resources, in the form of the additional cash. CCT is planned to be the basis of the development of a future social security system.     

Response to the COVID-19: Understanding implications of government lockdown policies

The rising number of COVID-19 cases and economic implications of lockdown measures indicate the tricky balancing act policy makers face as they implement the subsequent phases of 'unlock'. We develop a model to examine how lockdown and social distancing measures have influenced the behavioral conduct of people. The current situation highlights that policy makers need to focus on bringing awareness and social restraint among people rather than going for stringent lockdown measures. We believe this work will help the policy makers gain insights into the troubled COVID-19 times ahead, and based on the estimates, they can frame policies to navigate these wild waves in the best possible way.     

Emphasizing the experiences of researchers after RCR instructions: Introduction to Responsible Conduct of Research (RCR) in Malaysia

The purpose of this study is to highlight the experiences of individuals who participate in the Responsible Conduct of Research (RCR) training program held at various universities in Malaysia. In response to a mailing request sent to 40 individuals who had undertaken a RCR training program, 15 participants agreed to be interviewed. The results of the study showed that the three main reasons for participating in the training were as follows: anticipation for knowledge gained; personal experience with research misconduct; and establishing a new network of researchers. In terms of the positive effects gained from undertaking the training, the participants highlighted an increased awareness of the issues and problems related to research misconduct; the need to promote integrity in research conduct; a change in the way they conduct their research; and a change in the way they confront and address misconduct. The findings of this study should be valuable for policy makers and those involved in the management of research programs and ethics, as it demonstrated the importance of RCR training in equipping researchers with the necessary knowledge to conduct research responsibly, and to avoid research misconduct.