The impact of U.S. immigration upon internal migration

The potential adverse effect of immigrants on job opportunities for natives continues to influence debate about immigration policy in the United States. Many studies have examined wage and employment outcomes; by contrast, we examine internal migration. We ask whether or not natives are more likely to depart from or less likely to move to metropolitan areas with high concentrations of immigrants. After controlling for other influences on migration, we find that metropolitan areas with higher concentrations of immigrants have only slightly lower rates of inmigration of natives. Such metropolitan areas also exhibit slightly lower rates of out-migration, contrary to expectation. These results suggest that the effect of immigrants on labor market redistribution of natives is modest.Research reported here was supported by a grant from the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. We would like to thank Kofi Benefo for helpful comments.     

Future warming for U.S. cities

In this study, a model is developed to predict future warming for metropolitan areas in the United Sates to the year 2035. According to model results, most U.S. cities of 200,000 population or more can expect significant local warming. The average predicted warming for 104 cities analyzed is .34 degrees Farenheit. The greatest warming can be expected in sunbelt cities experiencing rapid population growth. Such localized warming is in addition to any heating which might occur from an enhanced greenhouse effect. Most cities can expect changes in energy demand, human health, and water supply.The author wishes to thank Stuart Simpson of the George Washington University's Center for Administrative and Academic Computing for his generous support and cooperation.     

U.S. internal Migration and Occupational Attainment: Assessing Absolute and Relative Outcomes by Region and Race

This paper investigates the occupational implications of contemporary migration flows by region and race. Even though the expectation of a positive link between geographic and social mobility is a central tenet in the stratification literature, empirical assessments are rare and have produced inconsistent results. Our analysis departs from traditional frameworks by integrating both absolute and relative notions of occupational standing for evaluating migration outcomes, comparing migrants against non-migrant peers both at origin and destination. Results document that for whites, migration is associated with higher occupational attainment both in absolute and relative terms, irrespective of the regional direction of the move. For blacks, on the other hand, absolute occupational gains are markedly absent for migration to the South, which is instead characterized by significant improvement in relative terms. The differences in absolute and relative gains by race and direction of the move helps contextualize the considerable black over representation in north–south migration and highlight the implications of current internal mobility for racial stratification.     

Correlates of divorce in the U.S.S.R.

The theoretical rationale of this study is that conditions associated with divorce reside outside the family within a broader social system where the family finds itself located. The absence of major differences in divorce law from one place to another within the Soviet Union makes it possible to explore this hypothesis by examining areal differentials in divorce rates. Crude divorce rates and crude marriage rates for 1960 have been published in Vestnik Statistiki for 109 political-administrative areas in the Soviet Union. Several indicators of modernization are available for the same areas from the 1959 U.S.S.R. Census of Population. About 80 per cent of the variation among areas with respect to the crude divorce rate is accounted for by six variables: the crude marriage rate, the percentage of urban population, and the employee-worker ratio in the labor force, each of which is positively associated with the divorce rate; and the proportion of poorly educated women, the ratio of children to adult males, and the mean household-family size, each of which is negatively associated with the divorce rate.     

Multi-Dimensional Deprivation in the U.S.

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of multidimensional deprivation in the U.S. since the Great Recession, from 2008 to 2013. We estimate a Multidimensional Deprivation Index by compiling individual level data on several well-being dimensions from the American Community Survey. Our results indicate that the proportion of the population that is multidimensional deprived averages about 15 percent, which exceeds the prevalence of official income poverty. Lack of education, severe housing burden and lack of health insurance were some of the dimensions in which Americans were most deprived in. Though deprivation increased during the recession, it trended towards a decline between 2010 and 2013. Unlike the official and the supplemental poverty measure which did not show any decline, the deprivation index better reflects the economic recovery since the recession. Overall, the prevalence of deprivation was higher in the southern and the western states and among the Asian and the Hispanic population. Importantly, there was not much overlap between individuals who were income poor and those who were multidimensional deprived. In fact, almost 30 % of individuals with incomes slightly above the poverty threshold experienced multiple deprivations. Our analysis underscores the need to look beyond income based poverty statistics in order to fully realize the impact of the recession on individuals’ well-being.     

Delayed childbearing in the U.S.: facts and fictions

Between 1970-82, the proportion of 1st births in the US to women 25 and older rose from 19-36% and the proportion of women still childless at ages 25-34 increased by 56% at about the same time. Although a sharp contrast with the baby boom era of the 1950s and 1960s, todays's epidemic of delayed childbearing is similar to patterns earlier in the 20th century. As then, much is due to delayed age at marriage, but baby boomers now in the their late 20s and early 30s are also delaying childbirth after marriage. The trend stems in part from their economic difficulties as they compete in a tight job market caused both by their large numbers and a turbulent economy. But it is also related to women's increasing education and, in turn, increasing opportunities in and commitment to the labor force, which can be expected to encourage a delayed childbearing even after prospects brighten for young people. Although a diverse group, most of today's delayed childbearers are white, highly educated, 2-career couples. Adequate daytime care for preschool children is a prime concern. Although more employers now offer childcare assistance and flexible work schedules to working parents, the juggle between jobs and childraising can be a strain. On the plus side are delayed childbearers' greater maturity and generally higher incomes, which can ease potential problems created by parent-child age differences as their children grow up. Businesses have been quick to respond to the new market of older, affluent, 1st-time mothers. New methods of treating of circumventing infertility and prenatal detection of chromosomal birth defects can now help overcome potential biological problems that may concern women who choose to delay childbearing past age 30.     

Contraceptive sterilization in the U. S.: 1965 and 1970

There was an impressive increase between 1965 and 1970 in the prevalence of contraceptive sterilization, an increase that accelerated in the later years of the period and was shared in by virtually all subgroups considered. Among couples in 1970 for whom sterilization had been an option (recognizing that it is a terminal method), about one of every five had chosen this method of contraception. About half of all sterilizations were vasectomies, though vasectomies have outnumbered tubal ligations in recent years. Differentials in prevalence and in increases during 1965–1970 are reported for a number of life-cycle and social variables. In addition, a profile of the contraceptive sterile is presented for recent sterilizations. Significant proportions are relatively young and of low parity at the time of sterilization. In the context of the continued diffusion of the pill and IUD and increases in legal abortion, the net demographic effect of increasing sterilization is regarded as low, though sterilization is an important component of an effective fertility control regime.     

Crude death rates in the U.S.S.R.: Comment on Grandstaff's remarks

Abstract My appraisal of death rates in the U.S.S.R. goes beyond the question whether a simple correlation really measures what the critic purports to measure. Normally, the crude death rates depend upon the age structure and the force of mortality. If one persists in assuming that a reasonably high correlation between the official death rates and their independent estimates should be the main criterion of validity, the best technique will be to relate the proportion of persons aged 60 and over to the official death rates recorded for some 109 observations. The force of mortality would be approximately reflected by a given proportion of survivors to the first or second year of age. But in the 1959 Soviet Census the latter data had been concealed within the 0 to 9 age group, possibly for no other reason than to prevent the curious few from tinkering with infant mortality.     

U.S. women at work

Women made up 43% of the U.S. labor force in 1980, up from 29% in 1950, and 52% of all women 16 and over were working or looking for work compared to 34% in 1950. The surge in women's employment is linked to more delayed marriage, divorce, and separation, women's increased education, lower fertility, rapid growth in clerical and service jobs, inflation, and changing attitudes toward "woman's place." Employment has risen fastest among married women, especially married mothers of children under 6, 45% of whom are now in the labor force. Some 44% of employed women now work fulltime the year round, but still average only $6 for every $10 earned by men working that amount. This is partly because most women remain segregated in low paying "women's jobs" with few chances for advancement. Among fulltime workers, women college graduates earn less than male high school dropouts. Working wives were still spending 6 times more time on housework than married men in 1975 and working mothers of preschool children are also hampered by a severe lack of daycare facilities. Children of working women, however, appear to develop normally. Equal employment opportunity and affirmative action measures have improved the climate for working women but not as much as for minorities. The federal income tax and social security systems still discriminate against 2 income families. Woman's position in the U.S. labor force should eventually improve with the inroads women are making in some male-dominated occupations and gains in job experience and seniority among younger women who now tend to stay in the labor force through the years of childbearing and early childrearing, unlike women in the 1950s and 1960s.     

Environmental Quality in the U.S. States

This analysis of data on environmental quality differentials in the U.S. states shows, first, that the many physical measures of the environment in the U. S. states form two coherent factors: pollution (which became the criterion variable for the study) and waste management. Likewise, budget allocations for the environment reduce to 'contemporary' and 'traditional' expenditures. The former type, along with per capita miles driven and the proportion of the population in metropolitan centers, were used as control variables in tests of three explanatory models: 'industrial capitalism', 'sectoral political economy' and 'sociological structuralism.' No one of these explanations was completely supported by the regression analyses. Therefore, a factor analysis of 16 measures of structure and environmental policy characteristics was run that generated three types of state structure: industrial, high-change and commercial. The first and third types proved to be strong predictors, positive and negative respectively, of pollution level. The major implication of these findings is that social structure, policy and pollution levels are inextricably intertwined.     

Immigration to the U.S.: the unfinished story

Annual totals of new immigrants and refugees in the US may now be up to the record highs of over a million immigrants counted in 6 years between 1905 and 1914. Since 1979, legal immigrants have averaged 566,000 a year (570,009 in 1985), newly arrived refugees and asylees approved have averaged 135,000, and the "settled" illegal immigrant population is growing by up to 1/2 million a year, according to some estimates. 1/2 of illegal immigrants are persons who entered the US legally but then overstayed the terms of temporary visas. Immigration and Naturalization Service apprehensions of illegal aliens, projected at a record 1.8 million for fiscal year 1986, indicate a sharp increase in illegal border crossers, driven by Mexico's and Central America's mounting population and economic pressures and lured by the prospect of jobs with employers who through a loophole in US immigration law can hire illegal aliens without penalty. The Census Bureau estimates that net immigration now accounts for 28% of US population growth and will account for all growth by the 2030's if fertility stays at the current low 1.8 births per woman. Public opinion strongly favors crubs on illegal immigration and legalization of illegal aliens long resident in the US, and in 1986 Congress enacted legislation to reduce illegal immigration to the US. Asians and Latin Americans now make up over 80% of legal immigrants and Latin Americans comprised 77% of illegal immigrants counted in the 1980 census. Asians far outstrip Latin American immigrants in education, occupational status, and income and might be expected to assimilate in the same manner as earlier immigrant group did. Hispanic immigrants so far appear to favor cultural pluralism, maintaining their own culture and the Spanish language. Research in California indicates that recent Hispanic immigrants (legal and illegal) have helped preserve low-wage industries and agriculture. Illegal immigrants appear to draw more on public health and education services than they pay back in taxes. With or without immigration reform, population and economic pressures in Mexico and the Caribbean Basin ensure that the numbers of people seeking to enter the US are only likely to increase.     

Population growth: U.S. and Latin American views

Abstract This article is an attempt at interpretation. As one who has worked professionally both in the United States and in Latin America, I would like to interpret how I see the United States and Latin America responding to the high Latin American population growth rate. This is a personal interpretation and as such, of course, is biassed. It is also a very broad subject to which a few pages of interpretation can hardly do justice. The very generalizations 'the United States' and 'Latin America' lend themselves to misunderstanding. These are not homogeneous areas but contain a variety of forces pulling in many directions. And yet, just because this is such a difficult subject as well as such an important one in the world of to-day, it is perhaps worth while to try to distil some common components which may help us gain a better understanding of the actions of others as well as our own.     

U.S. Hispanics: A demographic and issue profile

This paper highlights sociodemographic characteristics of Hispanics and extrapolates issues attendant to this large and growing segment of American society. Educational, political, and economic issues are considered.This article was presented at the 40th California History Institute sponsored by the Holt-Atherton center for Western Studies, the University of the Pacific, Stockton, California, April 24–25, 1987.     

A brief for a tax-based U.S. immigration policy

This paper briefly reviews the present state of U.S. immigration policy from an economic perspective. It contends that the present system confounds two independent dimensions of immigration policy—residence and employment. It argues that far too much attention is paid to who is admitted to the U.S. and far too little to what people do once they enter. The proposed policy is a system of taxes and transfer payments designed to regulate the employment of foreign nationals and to compensate domestic workers who are adversely affected economically. The paper works out the economics of the tax and demonstrates that such a system could ideally remove all adverse economic effects of immigration.     

Cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for U.S. Women

Historical trends in U.S. nonmarital fertility have been compiled almost exclusively from vital statistics on births. This paper complements this historical record by providing cohort estimates of nonmarital fertility for cohorts of U.S. women spanning approximately 50 years of cohort experience. Life table estimates using retrospective marital and fertility histories in the June 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1995 Current Population Surveys reveal nonnegligible levels of nonmarital fertility historically. For women born between 1925 and 1929, nearly 1 in 10 had at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. For women born between 1965 and 1969, more than 1 of 4 had one or more nonmarital births by age 30, with roughly 1 of5 white, 3 of 5 black, and 1 in 3 Hispanic women having at least one nonmarital birth by age 30. Life table estimates reveal a twofold increase between ages 20 and 30 in the percentage of women with at least one child outside of formal marriage for all cohorts of white and Hispanic women, and an increase of roughly two-thirds for all cohorts of black women. I also document qualitative differences in nonmarital fertility by race/ethnicity, with the percentage of nonmarital births following a divorce or marital separation for white women approximately twice that for black or Hispanic women. Finally, I introduce a new measure, the cohort nonmarital fertility ratio (CNMFR), which provides a cohort complement to the standard period nonmarital fertility ratio. Conservative estimates reveal a roughly threefold increase in the CNMFR for women born from 1925-1929 to 1950-1954 for both whites and blacks, despite substantially higher levels of nonmarital fertility among black women. Overall, these findings reveal surprisingly high levels of nonmarital fertility for women born since the 1920s and confirm that nonmarital fertility has become an increasingly substantial component of overall U.S. fertility.     

Measuring Ethnicity with U.S. Census Data: Implications for Mexicans and Arabs

U.S. racial and ethnic populations can be defined by a number of census questions—race/ethnicity, ancestry, place of birth, and/or language—but little is known about how using alternative definitions of identity affect the size and characteristics of different groups. This article examines this question using combined data from the 1 % and 5 % Public Use Microdata Samples in census 2000, using Mexicans and Arabs as case studies. The analysis uses the standard method of classifying these groups (Hispanic origin and Arab ancestry) as a baseline to explore differences across the range of possible permutations of ethnic identity. In the Arab case, persons captured using alternative definitions of identity (Arabic language at home and/or born in an Arab country) are lesser educated, more likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as non-white or multi-racial than the Arab population as a whole. In contrast, persons in the Mexican alternative definition group (Mexican ancestry and/or born in Mexico) are more highly educated, less likely to be in poverty, and more likely to identify as white than the Mexican population as a whole. The article concludes with research and policy implications of these findings.     

The status of women in the rural U.S.S.R.

Degree of sex equality in rural areas of the U.S.S.R. is assessed with reference to a multi-variable model which specifies demographic, technological, social, and ideological factors associated with sex stratification. Such analysis reveals that the emphasis in the U.S.S.R. on women's participation in production as the key to sex equality ignores other dimensions of sex stratification which are not changed using this tactic. In particular, rural traditions of higher birth rates, more authoritarian families, greater religious emphasis, and male scorn for women have kept the status of rural women even lower than that of their urban counterparts. Additionally, the agrarian techno-economic base and lack of institutional supports for childcare and housework help perpetuate sex stratification. Increasing sex differentiation is probably in store for the Soviet Union, because official pronatalist policies are likely to be facilitated by expanding the service sector, which will further increase the division of labor in the market.     

Katrina in historical context: environment and migration in the U.S.

The massive publicity surrounding the exodus of residents from New Orleans spurred by Hurricane Katrina has encouraged interest in the ways that past migration in the U.S. has been shaped by environmental factors. So has Timothy Egan’s exciting book, The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of those who survived the Great American Dust Bowl. This article places those dramatic stories into a much less exciting context, demonstrating that the kinds of environmental factors exemplified by Katrina and the Dust Bowl are dwarfed in importance and frequency by the other ways that environment has both impeded and assisted the forces of migration. We accomplish this goal by enumerating four types of environmental influence on migration in the U.S.: (1) environmental calamities, including floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes, (2) environmental hardships and their obverse, short-term environmental benefits, including both drought and short periods of favorable weather, (3) environmental amenities, including warmth, sun, and proximity to water or mountains, and (4) environmental barriers and their management, including heat, air conditioning, flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In U.S. history, all four of these have driven migration flows in one direction or another. Placing Katrina into this historical context is an important task, both because the environmental calamities of which Katrina is an example are relatively rare and have not had a wide impact, and because focusing on them defers interest from the other kinds of environmental impacts, whose effect on migration may have been stronger and more persistent, though less dramatic.     

Reconstruction of fertility trends for the female population of the U.S.S.R

Abstract The article describes fertility trends among Soviet women during the past 40 years as compared to American women during the same period of time. Period-specific fertility rates were arrived at by relating the annual total of live births to a pattern of age-specific fertility rates estimated for each year and also to the number of women for each single year of age. These rates were then appropriately re-arranged and compressed into five-year age groups to form a series of cohort-specific fertility rates. The findings rest on somewhat conjectural estimates of live births and numbers of women in the U.S.S.R., some of which were originally prepared before the 1959 Soviet census. The tentative evidence shows that changes in the period-specific fertility of Soviet women were far more irregular and dramatic in the past, than among American women. After World War II these rates dropped in the U.S.S.R. below those of the United States, except for women over 30 years of age. On the other hand, the cohort-specific rates of Soviet women, although declining from one cohort to the next, at present show their magnitude in the cumulative series for older ages to be marked by higher than among American women. This experimental investigation of fertility in the Soviet Union makes no claim to high standards of accuracy and validity. Its intended purpose is to stress the desirability of shifting emphasis from the temporal and prognostic type of study, characteristic of present-day demographic research about the U.S.S.R., to the generational and historical approach.     

Toward a U.S. population policy

The gratifying media results from a concerted national and local publicity effort when Zero Population Growth (ZPG) released its recommendations for a national population policy are reported. Support was received from 10 members of Congress and local leaders. 8 ZPG chapters and the Washington office held press conferences casting the meaning of increased population growth in regional terms. In Cincinnati, ZPG focused on the shortage of landfill space, in San Francisco the water shortage, and in Massachusetts the rapid urbanization of prime farmland. The Congressmen emphasized that the U.S. must have a comprehensive population policy before it can tell other countries they must. Among the ZPG policies recommended are: zero population growth by 2008, increased funding for family planning services and education, special programs for teenagers, greater public education on population dynamics, increased funding for contraceptive research, enforcement of existing immigration laws, comprehensive review of immigration policy, equal rights for women, and more equitable income tax policy.