TO DETER OR TO MODERATE? ALLIANCE FORMATION IN CONTESTS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION

We consider two players' choice about the formation of an alliance ahead of conflict in a framework with incomplete information about the strength of the potential ally. When deciding on alliance formation, players anticipate the self‐selection of other players and the informational value of own and other players' choices. In the absence of these signaling effects, strong players have an incentive to stand alone, which leads to a separating equilibrium. This separating equilibrium can be destabilized by deception incentives if beliefs are updated on the basis of endogenous alliance formation choices. Weak players may find it attractive to appear strong in order to deter competitors from positive effort choices. Strong players may find it attractive to appear weak in order to give their competitors a false sense of security and then beat them with little effort. Moreover, appearing weak allows players to free‐ride when alliances are formed. (JEL D72, D74)     

MICRO- OR MACRO-ORIENTATION? ISRAELI STUDENTS' CAREER INTERESTS IN AN ANTISOCIAL ERA

The growing interest in social work education in Israel over the past 5 years, despite its current social and political context, was the impetus for this study, which attempted to identify the practice orientations of 119 incoming BSW students in an antisocial era. Two distinct, equal-size clusters were found. Half of the students were micropractice oriented, indicating greater interest in working with individuals, couples, and families. The other half were macropractice oriented, more interested in working with communities and in policy-practice and social change activities. Conclusions and implications for social work education are discussed.     

WHO WINS IN AN ENERGY BOOM? EVIDENCE FROM WAGE RATES AND HOUSING

This article presents evidence on the distributional effects of energy extraction by examining the effect of the recent U.S. energy boom on wage rates and housing. The boom increased local wage rates in almost every major occupational category. The increase occurred regardless of whether the occupation experienced a corresponding change in employment, suggesting a tighter labor market that benefited local workers. Wage rates also increased substantially across the entire wage rate distribution, although the percentage increase was slightly higher at the bottom of the distribution than at the top. Local housing values and rental prices both increased, thereby benefiting landowners. For renters, the increase in prices was completely offset by a contemporaneous increase in income. The results suggest that bans on drilling have negative monetary consequences for a large share of local residents. (JEL J23, Q33, R31)     

DOES RAISING THE SCHOOL LEAVING AGE REDUCE TEACHER EFFORT? EVIDENCE FROM A POLICY EXPERIMENT

This paper examines the effect of an increase in the compulsory school leaving age on a measure of high school teachers' effort. Differences‐in‐Differences estimates using count data methods demonstrate that the policy led to teachers increasing their hours of sickness absence by roughly 15%. This result implies that raising the compulsory school leaving age reduces teaching inputs, and hence schooling quality. A policy implication is that these laws should be coupled with measures to compensate teachers for the additional disutility. This also suggests that instrumental variable estimates of returns to education that utilize these changes for identification may be downwardly biased. (JEL J22, J38)     

WHO'S DRAGGING THEIR FEET? HUSBANDS AND WIVES SEEKING MARITAL THERAPY

Despite its demonstrated efficacy, marital therapy's impact has been limited by couples' general reluctance to seek help until their problems become severe. To understand this delay, 147 married couples (294 individuals) in the process of seeking marital therapy were surveyed. Using multilevel confirmatory factor analysis, three relatively independent steps (problem recognition, treatment consideration, and treatment seeking) were identified. On average, wives were rated as completing all three steps before their husbands. Gender-role orientation, demographics, relationship satisfaction, and specific relationship problems (especially husbands' dissatisfaction with sex) were also predictive of the steps toward therapy. Implications for marital therapy are discussed.     

FOR MONEY OR GLORY? COMMERCIALIZATION,COMPETITION, AND SECRECY IN THE ENTREPRENEURIAL UNIVERSITY

Scholars have grown concerned that the commercialization of academic science is increasing secrecy at the expense of cooperation and information sharing. Using data from comparable surveys of academic scientists in three fields (experimental biology, mathematics, and physics), we test whether scientists have become more competitive and more secretive over the last 30 years. We also use the recent survey to test a multivariate model of the effects of scientific competition and commercialization (patenting, industry funding, and industry collaboration) on scientific secrecy. We find that secrecy has increased, and has increased particularly for experimental biologists. Only 13 percent of experimental biologists in 1998 felt safe discussing their ongoing research with all others doing similar work. Our multivariate analysis shows that this secrecy is most related to concerns about being anticipated (scientific competition). We find that patenting is associated with increased secrecy among mathematicians and physicists, but not for experimental biologists. We find that industry funding is associated with more secrecy, while industry collaboration is associated with less secrecy, across fields. Our results suggest that the recent concern over increasing scientific secrecy has merit. However, this increased secrecy seems to result from a combination of increasing commercial linkages and increased pressures from scientific competition. Our research highlights the central role that scientists' competition for priority plays in the system of science and that, while such competition spurs effort, it also produces negative effects that recent trends toward commercialization of academic science seem to be exacerbating.     

CAN'T BUY ME LOVE? A FIELD EXPERIMENT EXPLORING THE TRADE‐OFF BETWEEN INCOME AND CASTE‐STATUS IN AN INDIAN MATRIMONIAL MARKET

A large body of literature depicts that status‐based discrimination is pervasive, but is silent on how economic incentive interacts with such discrimination. This study addresses this question by designing a field experiment in a reputable arranged marriage market that is prone to strong caste‐status‐based discrimination. We place newspaper advertisements of potential grooms by systematically varying their caste and income and focus on responses of higher‐caste females to lower‐caste males. The substantive finding is that despite the evidence of discrimination, discriminatory behavior of higher‐status females decreases with an increase in the advertised monthly income of lower‐status males. (JEL C93, J12, J15)     

WILL GIRLS BE GIRLS? RISK TAKING AND COMPETITION IN AN ALL‐GIRLS' SCHOOL

We conduct an experiment that examines the relationship between girls only schooling and risk taking and competitive behavior. In it, we compare decisions made by students in an all‐girls' school to those made by students in a closely matched coeducational school. We further investigate the developmental nature of this behavior by comparing choices made by younger students (Grades 7 and 8) with those of older students (Grades 11 and 12). We focus on the differences between those who select into the all‐girls' school, and find that although girls educated in a single sex environment are the most risk averse, they are also among the most competitive. These results lend texture to the hypothesis that “nurture matters” in the gender differences debate. (JEL C93, J16, I21)     

DOES RELATIVE THINKING EXIST IN REAL‐WORLD SITUATIONS? A FIELD EXPERIMENT WITH BAGELS AND CREAM CHEESE

Many experiments show that consumers consider relative price differences even when only absolute price differences are relevant from an economic perspective, a phenomenon that was denoted “relative thinking.” These experiments, however, were conducted using hypothetical questions. To test whether the relative thinking bias also exists in real‐world situations, a field experiment where subjects could purchase either a bagel or a bagel with cream cheese was conducted. The monetary addition for the cream cheese was kept constant ($0.20) in both treatments, but the bagel's price varied ($0.05 in one treatment and $0.30 in the other). Relative thinking then implies that more people should add the cream cheese when the bagel's price is higher, because the relative price increase for the cream cheese is then smaller. However, the results did not document any relative thinking—more people (in percentage of those who purchase) added the cream cheese when the bagel's price was lower (the difference between the treatments, however, was not statistically significant). A replication of the experiment as a hypothetical‐scenario experiment did document relative thinking, suggesting that introduction of financial incentives might alleviate relative thinking. (JEL C93, D01, D10, L00, M31)     

ARE PROMISES MEANINGLESS IN AN UNCERTAIN CROWDFUNDING ENVIRONMENT?

We use a prominent crowdfunding organization, Kickstarter, to analyze the factors that determine timeliness of delivery of rewards to financial backers. We seek to determine the extent to which promised rewards are delivered on time and to characterize projects that have stronger likelihood of timely delivery of rewards. We find that lateness commonly occurs, yet cannot be explained universally with any given set of project characteristics, implying that the uncertainty of rewards involved with crowdfunding entities is difficult to overcome. (JEL D71, D83, L82)     

BOON OR BURDEN? THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT ON THE RISK OF SOVEREIGN DEFAULT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

We explore how the share of the private sector in total external debt affects perceived creditworthiness and the likelihood of sovereign default in developing countries. While there are theoretical arguments both in favor and against a stabilizing role of private‐sector borrowing, the evidence supports the notion that a greater share of the private sector in total external debt is associated with a reduced likelihood of sovereign default. (JEL F34, O16)     

CAN THE PRESIDENT REALLY AFFECT ECONOMIC GROWTH? PRESIDENTIAL EFFORT AND THE POLITICAL BUSINESS CYCLE

Presidential elections are often seen as referendums on the health of the economy; however, little evidence exists on the president's ability to influence gross domestic product (GDP). This study examines the effect of the incentive to be reelected and the resulting increase in presidential effort on GDP growth. Growth is found to rise in reelection years for first‐term presidents after 1932 and to fall in election years before 1932, when reelection was uncommon, and for second‐term presidents generally. This effect is largest for high‐quality presidents—who probably have the highest return to effort—and is spread across multiple sectors of the economy. (JEL D78, D72, E32, J24)     

DESPERATION OR DESIRE? THE ROLE OF RISK AVERSION IN MARRIAGE

Because of the uncertainty inherent in searching for a spouse and the uncertainty of the future quality and state of the marriage itself, risk attitudes likely directly impact the timing of marriage. The effect of an individual’s risk aversion, measured via a series of hypothetical gambles over income on time to marriage, is examined using survival analysis. I find risk aversion significantly affects time to marriage, with more risk averse respondents marrying sooner than their more risk‐loving counterparts. Within‐family analyses using sibling data reveal a similar pattern. In addition, the effect of risk aversion on time to marriage is larger in magnitude and more statistically significant for men. One possible explanation for the different results between the sexes is that women value risk aversion as a desirable trait in potential mates. (JEL J10, J11, J12, J16)     

AFDC AND WORK: MAGNETS OR ANCHORS FOR THE POOR?

Literature analyzing the linkage between welfare and interstate migration is divided. Lack of consistent findings partially depends on sample used and time period when studies are done. Choice of analytical modeling technique has also led to divergent findings. This paper addresses these issues by comparing the effects of welfare and work on poor/nonpoor migration patterns using contemporary structural and household data. Findings offer no support for the welfare magnet hypothesis. Effects of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC) differ by poverty status at the place of destination for 1985 and 1990. Householders are migrating to states with lower AFDC benefits. Effects of work also differ by poverty status. For 1985, householders are moving to states with lower unemployment rates. For 1990, householders are moving to states with lower wages. In general, householders remain in states with lower AFDC benefits giving more credence to an anchor effect of higher welfare benefits.     

TO LEAN OR NOT TO LEAN AGAINST AN ASSET PRICE BUBBLE? EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

Since the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2009, economists are reconsidering the appropriate role of monetary policy towards equity bubbles. This paper contributes to these deliberations by estimating the response of the stock market to monetary policy tightening by using a Bayesian time-varying VAR model. By introducing the cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio, we propose a method that estimates its fundamental and bubble components. We find that asset prices will initially fall and eventually rise again but without the risk of feeding the bubble. Counterfactual policy experiments provide additional evidence that monetary policy can lean against equity and housing prices. (JEL E50, E52, E58)     

BEING “EAST GERMAN” OR BEING “AT HOME IN EASTERN GERMANY”? IDENTITY AS EXPERIENCE AND AS RHETORIC

An apparent resurgence of East German identity aroused much scholarly interest in recent years whilst it is contested in the German public discourse. Scholars see the phenomenon as based in experiences of domination and cultural devaluation; German scholars focus on East-West German differences, and the public discourse refers to the continuation of the “[Berlin] Wall in people's minds.” When conducting field research in Saxony-Anhalt in 2001, I found, however, that my informants would consciously and carefully negotiate their senses of belonging. Many avoided claims to an exclusive identity category and instead emphasised more local senses of attachment which nevertheless encompassed the whole of eastern Germany. This article seeks to highlight the interplay of these two kinds of belonging. Its central argument is that they are two aspects of the same phenomenon. The article therefore explores how identity is based in the mundane and quotidian forms of everyday life leading to senses of belonging that allow for a reflexive positioning of the self and the other. This belonging is at certain times also voiced explicitly. The article also explores how and when identity rhetoric comes into play.     

UP OR DOWN? A MALE ECONOMIST'S MANIFESTO ON THE TOILET SEAT ETIQUETTE

This paper develops an economic analysis of the toilet seat etiquette. I investigate whether there is any efficiency justification for the presumption that men should leave the toilet seat down after use. I find that the “down rule” is inefficient unless there is a large asymmetry in the inconvenience costs of shifting the position of the toilet seat across genders. I show that the “selfish” or the “status quo” rule that leaves the toilet seat in the position used dominates the down rule in a wide range of parameter spaces including the case where the inconvenience costs are the same. (JEL D7, H4)     

FINANCIAL AND INSURANCE SERVICES TRADE: DOES EXCHANGE RATE OR INCOME MATTER?

This paper aims to investigate the impacts of exchange rate and income changes on financial and insurance services trade by utilizing the quarterly bilateral trade data of the United States and its major trading partners from 2003 to 2017. No long‐run exchange rate effects on imports and exports of insurance services trade are found. The impact of exchange rates on insurance services may be weak since competition among service providers depends on product differentiation than on exchange rates. On the contrary, income demonstrates significant impacts on both financial and insurance services trade in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan and Australia. (JEL C22, F14, G20)     

ARE GOALS AND TOPICS INFLUENCED BY GENDER AND MODALITY IN THE INITIAL MARRIAGE AND FAMILY THERAPY SESSION?

Establishment of a goal is crucial to therapy, but identification of therapeutic goals may be difficult in conjoint therapy because each participant may identify a different problem. We examined the influence of gender on ability to successfully introduce therapeutic topics in marital and family therapy by conducting two studies. The first study evaluates the ability of therapists to identify therapeutic goals that matched goals prioritized by both women and men clients on pretherapy questionnaires. The second study examines the process of initial therapy sessions to see whether gender influences a client's ability to introduce a therapeutic topic. Results suggest that therapeutic topic is influenced by the interaction of gender and treatment modality. Specifically, therapists were better able to match women's pretherapy stated goals in marital therapy than family therapy, men were more successful at introducing topics in family therapy, and women were more successful at introducing topics in marital therapy.