THE EFFECTS OF RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION AND DISPENSING ON OPIOID MORTALITY

This study documents how the changing legal status of marijuana has impacted mortality in the United States over the past two decades. We use a difference-in-difference approach to estimate the effect of medical marijuana laws (MML) and recreational marijuana laws (RML) on fatalities from opioid overdoses, and we find that marijuana access induces sharp reductions in opioid mortality rates. Our research corroborates prior findings on MMLs and offers the first causal estimates of RML impacts on opioid mortality to date, the latter of which is particularly important given that RMLs are far more expansive in scope and reach than MMLs. In our preferred econometric specification, we estimate that RMLs reduce annual opioid mortality in the range of 20%–35%, with particularly pronounced effects for synthetic opioids. In further analysis, we demonstrate how RML impacts vary among demographic groups, shedding light on the distributional consequences of these laws. Our findings are especially important and timely given the scale of the opioid crisis in the United States and simultaneously evolving attitudes and regulations on marijuana use. (JEL I18, K32, H75)     

THE CROSS-BORDER SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA LEGALIZATION

We examine the spillover effects of recreational marijuana legalization (RML) in Colorado and Washington on neighboring states. We find that RML causes a sharp increase in marijuana possession arrests in border counties of neighboring states relative to nonborder counties in these states. RML has no impact on juvenile marijuana possession arrests but is rather fully concentrated among adults. We find mixed results regarding the source(s) of this change. Using separate data on self-reported marijuana use, we show that RML is accompanied by an increase in use in neighboring states relative to non-neighboring states. However, the increase in arrests following RML is highly concentrated in a few states, which we argue is more consistent with a change in police enforcement near some state borders driving the arrest results. (JEL I12, I18, K14)     

GASOLINE PRICES AND ROAD FATALITIES: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

This study utilizes data for 144 countries from 1991 to 2010 to present the first international estimates of the gasoline price elasticity of road fatalities. We instrument each country's gasoline price with that country's oil reserves and the yearly international crude oil price to address potential endogeneity concerns. Our findings suggest that the average reduction in road fatalities resulting from a 10% increase in the gasoline pump price is in the order of 3%–6%. Around 35,000 road deaths per year could be avoided by the removal of global fuel subsidies. (JEL R41, H23, O18, Q43)     

THE EFFECT OF LEGALIZING RETAIL MARIJUANA ON HOUSING VALUES: EVIDENCE FROM COLORADO

Does legalizing retail marijuana generate more benefits than costs? This paper provides a first step toward addressing that question by measuring the benefits and costs that are capitalized into housing values. We exploit the time‐series and cross‐sectional variations in the adoption of Colorado's municipality retail marijuana laws (RMLs) and examine the effect on housing values with a difference‐in‐differences strategy. Our estimates show that the legalization leads to an average 6% increase in housing values, indicating that the capitalized benefits outweigh the costs. In addition, we find suggestive evidence that this relatively large housing value appreciation is likely due to RMLs inducing strong housing demand while having no discernible effect on housing supply. Finally, we show that the effect of RMLs is heterogeneous across locations and property types. (JEL K20, R28)     

CROSS-COUNTRY EVIDENCE ON LONG-RUN GROWTH AND INFLATION

While inflation is generally inversely related to growth, I show that estimates of the relationship seer two robustness problems which plague a variety of model specifications. First, growth-inflation results are highly sensitive to modifications to the country sample, limited from the start to low- and moderate-inflation countries. Second, results are also sensitive to modifications in the time period of analysis. In conjunction with the regression specification sensitivity documented by Levine and Renelt [1992], these results should further discourage the practice cf quantifying inflation's effects with cross-county growth regressions.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON CREDIT CARD BORROWING AND REPAYMENT PATTERNS

A new dataset allows researchers to examine patterns of credit card use for both borrowing and payoff. This article addresses changes in these behaviors for different birth cohorts by estimating cohort‐adjusted age profiles for debt and payoff rates based on a time series of cross sections. Younger consumers are found to be borrowing more heavily and repaying at lower rates than older generations. The accumulation of credit card debt is found to continue over the lifecycle. This has implications for recent changes in laws governing the credit card industry. Increases in minimum required payment rates are examined and are found to increase actual payoff rates more than proportionately. (JEL D12)     

NEW EVIDENCE ON INCOME AND THE VELOCITY OF MONEY

Time series and cross-country empirical results suggest that cash holding as a proportion of income rises, or equivalently that velocity falls, as income increases. Numerous cross sectional findings at many points in time, in several countries conclude oppositely. It is argued here that the former findings suffer from omitted variable bias by ignoring sociodemographic variables affecting the demand for cash balances. When one incorporates such demand shifters into the analysis the time series and cross-country findings are seen as consistent with the critically reexamined cross sectional result that velocity increases with income.     

NEW EVIDENCE ON THE RETIREMENT AND DEPRECIATION OF MACHINE TOOLS

This paper uses data from machinery dealers to estimate the retirement and depreciation patterns for a broad set of conventional machine tools. According to the dealers, the average service life of these machines at the survey date was about thirty years. Service lives were even longer in the mid-1970s, with the reduction over time likely caused by the diffusion of superior, computer controlled machines. Consistent with the relatively long average life, the conventional machines have depreciated slowly. I use the results to assess the average service life assumed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct capital stocks for metalworking machinery.     

DISAGGREGATE EVIDENCE ON PRICE STICKINESS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR MACRO MODELS

We use the methodology applied at the aggregate level by Gali and Gertler (1999) to analyze price and cost data for U.S. six‐digit North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) industries. Industries with price adjustment periods of at least 6 quarters generate no more than about 43% of total sales of industries we analyze. Industries with estimated price adjustment speeds of less than a year generate at least 44% of sales. Our conclusion is that disaggregate U.S. data provide as much support in favor of relatively high price flexibility as they do for the assumption of widespread price stickiness utilized in many modern macroeconomic theories. (JEL E31, L16)     

EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON ON VERTICAL FORECLOSURE

Recent papers have shown conditions under which vertical mergers can result in anticompetitive foreclosure of unintegrated rivals. One implication of these models is that a necessary condition for anticompetitive foreclosure is that unintegrated rival firms are less profitable after a vertical merger. We test this hypothesis by examining the stock prices of unintegrated rivals at the time of a vertical merger announcement and at the time of a government antitrust complaint. We find no evidence to support the foreclosure hypothesis.     

FURTHER EVIDENCE ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT AND INFLATION

Does an increase in the federal debt cause inflation? Dwyer [1982] using a par value measure of debt, finds no support for such a causal link. Cox [1985] using a market value measure, finds evidence that increases in debt produce higher inflation rates. We reconcile these results by demonstrating that failure to capture the interest rate effects inherent in the market value measure accounts for the finding that debt "causes" inflation. Incorporating interest rates into our test equations using the market value series leads us to conclude that, like the par value series results, increases in federal debt do not cause higher rates of inflation.     

THE EFFECT OF ABORTION LEGALIZATION ON CHILDBEARING BY UNWED TEENAGERS IN FUTURE COHORTS

This article examines the long‐term impact of legalized abortion on childbearing by unwed teenagers in the United States. I find that the 1970 legalization of abortion in the repeal states led to about a 6% reduction in unwed childbearing rates for white women aged 15–20 who were born in these states immediately after abortion became legal. I find a larger long‐term impact for African‐American women of the same ages: a 7.5%–13% reduction in unwed childbearing. My estimates are smaller and not as precise for the effect of Roe v. Wade. This outcome is not surprising given that I am able to estimate only a potential lower bound of the effect on unwed childbearing rates. On the other hand, when I estimated a Difference‐in‐Difference regression for the non‐repeal states assuming that there was no national trend that affected the childbearing behavior of the treatment age groups and their respective control age groups separately, I found that the true effect of Roe v. Wade on childbearing by unwed teenagers was about an 11% and 3% reductions for white and African‐American teenagers, respectively. (JEL J13, I18)     

COMPETING PERSPECTIVES ON CROSS-NATIONAL CRIME: AN EVALUATION OF THEORY AND EVIDENCE

Cross-national studies of crime are dominated by a Durkheimian-Modernization theoretical perspective. We evaluate this perspective and present two alternatives, the Marxian-World System and Ecological-Opportunity perspectives. Each is for its theory of social change, causal explanation of criminal behavior, conceptualization of law and crime rates, and view of the relation between collective political behavior and crime. The empirical evidence is assessed and weak support is found for the dominant perspective. The article concludes by reconsidering the concepts of economic development and crime rates.     

NEIGHBORHOOD FAMILY-FRIENDLINESS AND ITS EFFECT ON FAMILY RELATIONS: EVIDENCE FROM UTAH

This article explores the effect of neighborhood family-friendliness on three measures of family relations: marital burnout, marital satisfaction, and parent-child relations. Regression analyses of survey data from northern Utah provide some support that neighborhood family-friendliness, measured here as neighborhood cohesion and neighborhood assessment, positively affects family functioning. For men, neighborhood cohesion was negatively associated with marital burnout and positively associated with marital satisfaction. For both men and women, neighborhood assessment was positively associated with marital satisfaction. These relationships were stronger for men than for women.     

INTERTEMPORAL SUBSTITUTION AND CONSTRAINTS ON LABOR SUPPLY: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA

This paper tests an intertemporal labor supply model for workers who say they face quantity constraints on their hours and for workers who say they do not. The data reject the model for the first group but not for the second. I conclude from this evidence that employment fluctuations result mainly from changes in the severity of constraints—that is, changes in involuntary unemployment—rather than intertemporal substitution. It also appears that liquidity constraints influence labor supply. Finally, the paper proposes a new approach to identifying intertemporal labor supply equations.     

THEORY OF SEGMENTED ASSIMILATION AND THE ADOPTION OF MARIJUANA USE AND DELINQUENT BEHAVIOR BY ASIAN PACIFIC YOUTH

This article examines the adoption of behaviors of the teen drug and delinquent subcultures among Asian Pacific youth within the framework of the theory of segmented assimilation. Alejandro Portes and Min Zhou's theory offers a new perspective to the question: Under what conditions are youth susceptible to marijuana use and delinquent behavior? In contrast to Milton Gordon's classic one‐path theory, segmented assimilation theory looks to the immigrant culture and social capital (e.g., social solidarity) as critical factors in the assimilation process. The theory suggests several different types of adaptation by immigrant youth and Asian youth born in the United States. The data from the Asian Student Drug Survey were used to analyze the patterns of marijuana use and delinquent behavior among Japanese. Chinese, Filipino. Korean, Southeast Asian, Asian Indian, and Pacific Islander youth, controlling for human capital and social capital, as well as other relevant factors. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the factors that affect the odds of marijuana use and delinquent behavior for the seven ethnic groups in this study. The likelihood of marijuana use differed significantly among the ethnic groups. For example, Pacific Islander and Filipino youth were much more likely than Japanese youth to use marijuana. Korean, Southeast Asian, and Asian Indian youth did not differ significantly from the Japanese youth in marijuana use. Like the model that predicted marijuana use, the Chinese youth were least likely to engage in delinquent behavior, while Filipino and Pacific Islander youth were most likely. Segmented assimilation theory points to the importance of the human and social capital that serve to insulate youth from the influence of the teen drug and delinquent cultures.     

MORE EVIDENCE ON THE MONEY-OUTPUT RELATIONSHIP

Recent studies have found that money loses its explanatory power over output if the 2980s are included in the sample. Interest rates, not money, appear to predict output. Using annual data for 1915–1993 and quarterly data for 1960–1993, we demonstrate that the supposed breakdown in the money-output relationship stems from the type of stationary assumption imposed on the data. Assuming difference-stationary produces results found in the literature. Assuming trend-stationary produces results indicating that money and output remain statistically related. Moreover, the change in the stationarity assumption greatly affects the quantitative importance cf interest rates in explaining output.     

DISAGGREGATING THE EFFECTS OF RACIAL AND ECONOMIC INEQUALITY ON EARLY TWENTIETH-CENTURY EXECUTION RATES

This article examines how class inequality may have influenced the historical use of executions in the United States, both within the South and outside of the South. Specifically, this article asks whether executions acted as a mechanism to maintain an exploitative class system in the entire United States, just as lynching maintained a racial caste system in the South. Much of the literature on the historical determinants of macrolevel execution rates has examined these disparities in terms of racial inequality. This study demonstrates that racial inequality alone cannot account for the high number of executions that typified the early twentieth century United States and contends that it is important to expand our understanding of the effects of class inequality on both historical and contemporary trends in executions.