Institutions,Incentives, and Resource Use Conflicts: The Case of Biscayne Bay,Florida

Landuse changes and commercial developments along coastlines often put intense pressure on coastal environments. In this paper we examine market and political factors that have influenced the exploitation of Biscayne Bay in South Florida, and the evolution of institutions and policies that govern the Bay's uses. While public enthusiasm to save the Bay continues to be strong, resolving conflicts among interest groups needs government intervention. One of the largest yet weakest interest groups is the general public, whose physical access to the estuarine resources has been reduced over time due to the private ownership of most properties around the Bay. Our paper suggests certain regulatory, economic, and institutional mechanisms needed to achieve more efficient and equitable resource use outcomes.     

Population, nutrition and agriculture

The human carrying capacity of the world or a country is considered as a function of food consumption per capita. A method of assessing carrying capacity is described, and it is shown that the world’s population currently exceeds the global carrying capacity, that the population of the less-developed countries (LDCs) exceeds their carrying capacity, and that this situation cannot be expected to change more than marginally in the period up to 2050. It is also shown that a major increase in the global consumption of nitrogen fertilizer will be necessary if world crop production per capita is to be maintained at the current inadequate level.     

New midyear age-sex-color-specific estimates of the U.S. population for the 1940s and 1950s: including a revision of coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses

This paper describes new midyear (July 1) estimates of the "true" population of the United States by age, sex, and color (white, nonwhite) for the 1940s and 1950s. It also presents the corresponding implied coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses. The new population estimates are calculated by combining the most recent figures on the 1960 population with estimates of the demographic components of change for the 1950s and 1940s in an iterative reverse cohort-component projection algorithm. Among the principal findings of the new estimates are: (a) existing midyear estimates of the "true" population in the 1950s are 450,000 to 500,000 too high; (b) existing age-specific estimates for the 1950s tend to underestimate the population at the older ages (55 years and over) and overestimate the population in the young and middle adult years (15 to 54 years); (c) estimates of the "true" population in the 1940s were too low except for nonwhites at ages 65 and over; (d) existing estimates of percentage net undercount and underenumeration for the 1950 and 1940 censuses tend to be too high, substantially so for nonwhites in the 1940 Census; and (e) nonwhites were more completely enumerated in 1940 than in 1950. Thus, in addition to being methodologically and temporally consistent with post-1960 estimates, the new population estimates described here imply some substantial revisions in demographic, social, and economic statistics for the two decades prior to 1960.     

A population size estimate of the finless porpoise,Neophocaena phocaenoides, from aerial sighting surveys in Ariake Sound and Tachibana Bay, Japan

We estimated the population size of the finless porpoise (Neophocaena phocaenoides) in Ariake Sound and Tachibana Bay of western Kyushu, southwestern Japan, from aerial sighting surveys using line transect methods. All 12 surveys were conducted from May 1993 to May 1994 (8 in Ariake Sound and 4 in Tachibana Bay). In addition to these, 14 surveys were also carried out to obtain information on porpoise occurrence in Tachibana Bay (5 surveys) and in neighboring Sumo Nada (5) and Yatsushiro Sound (4). In Ariake Sound, 225 porpoise groups (369 animals) were detected during all flights totalling 1,694.4 km. In Tachibana Bay, a total of 997.8 km was surveyed and 55 groups (290 animals) were sighted. However, no sightings were recorded in Sumo Nada (distance searched = 148.7 km) and Yatsushiro Sound (208.4 km). In Ariake Sound, few sightings were recorded from waters shallower than 5 m in depth. In Tachibana Bay all animals were detected from waters of less than 50 m depth. The population size was estimated as 1,983 animals in Ariake Sound (95% CI = 1,382-2,847), 1,110 in Tachibana Bay (95% CI = 642-1,920), and 3,093 in the 2 waters (1.3 individuals/km², 95% CI = 2,278-4,201).     

国际生产分工、环境规治与中国工业污染：--基于联立方程模型GMM估计方法的经验研究

基于环境政策内生模型，建立联立方程模型，应用GMM估算方法，以二氧化硫排放量作为环境指标，就国际分工、环境规治对我国工业污染的影响进行了实证研究。研究结果表明国际生产分工有助于清洁生产技术在我国的推广使用，从而技术效应对于减少二氧化硫的排放量有积极作用。同时，国际生产分工使得我国产业结构陷入低端过度制造业的陷阱，从而促进了我国二氧化硫排放量的增加。我国环境管理机构采取的税收政策和污染治理措施，都有助于我国二氧化硫排放量的减少，由于排污费过低，未能有效增加排污成本，使得污染治理效应高于环境税收效应。因此，促进产业服务业化，提高在国际生产分工地位，加强排污税收力度，是减少我国工业污染的关键。     

World food resources and population: the narrowing margin

This bulletin examines the narrowing margin between global food production and population growth. Between 1950 and 1971, world grain production nearly doubled and per capita production increased 31%. During the 1970s, gains in output barely kept pace with population growth, consumption/person declined in sub-Saharan Africa and parts of Asia, food prices were volatile, and over 100 food deficit countries came to depend on the exportable surplus of North America, now the only major grain exporting region. The world fish catch levelled off in the early 1970s and beef production, still dependent mainly on grassland grazing, levelled off in the mid-1970s. With little new land left to plow, satisfying increased food demand now depends on sharp increases in yields on existing crop land. Worldwide, this effort is hampered by loss of topsoil and irrigated land, conversion of cropland to nonfarm uses, rising energy costs, inefficient agrarian structures, particularly in the Soviet Union, the falling yield response to chemical fertilizers in agriculturally advanced countries, and the emerging competition between food and agriculturally based energy crops. Green Revolution successes in some developing countries deomonstrate that, given the right inputs, 3rd world farmers can increase crop yields dramatically. Feeding the world's poor also requires more equitable income and food distribution, including a reduction in the proportion of grain and fish consumed indirectly as livestock products by the affluent. Most important in meeting food needs on a finite planet is braking population growth. The author concludes that every effort should be made to stabilize world production at abour 6 billion by 2020, rather than 10.5 billion by 2110, as is now projected by the UN.     

Retrospect and prospect of China's population

This discussion of the population of China covers the reproductive pattern and fertility rate, the death pattern and mortality, age-sex structure of the population, population and employment, urbanization, migration, and the aging of the population. During the 1949-83 period, China almost doubled her population with an annual natural growth rate of 19/1000. China's reproductive pattern developed from early childbearing, short birth spacing and many births to later childbearing, longer birth spacing and fewer births. China's total fertility rate (TFR) was 5.8 in 1950 and 2.1 in 1983 with an annual decrease of 3%. The annual national income grew at a rate of 7.1%, while the annual growth rate of population 1.9% from 1950-82. Consequently, the national income per capita increased from 50 yuan in 1950 to 338 yuan in 1982. The major factor responsible for the changes is the remarkable decline in the rural fertility rate. The crude death rate dropped from 27.1/1000 in 1963 to 7.1 in 1983 and the infant mortality rate from 179.4/1000 live births in 1936 to 36.6 in 1981. There was also a significant change in the causes of death. Population aged 0-14 in China account for 33.6%, 15-49 for 51.3%, and 50 and over for 15.1% of the total population. China is in the process of transition from an expansive to a stationary population. The age-dependency ratio declined from 68.6% in 1953 and 79.4% in 1964 to 62.6% in 1982. Sex ratios recorded in the 3 population censuses are 105.99 in 1953, 105.45 in 1964, and 105.46 in 1982. Employment in both collective and individual economies did not expand until 1978. Sectoral, occupational, and industrial structures of population started to change rationally with the adjustment and reform of economic management system in 1978. The strategic stress on the employment of China's economically active population should be shifted from farming to diversified economy and urban industry and commerce, from sectors of industrial-agricultural production to those of non-material production, and from expansion of employment to the rise of employment efficiency. The proportion of urban population in China accounted for 20.8% in 1982 with an annual growth rate of 4% during the 1949-82 period. The 1982 population census reveals that 94.4% of China's population resides on the southeast side of Aihui-Tengchong Line. Compared with the statistics in 1953, there was no notable change of the unbalanced population distribution on each side of the Line over the last 50 years. China is comparatively young in its population age structure. 1982 census data show that there were 49.29 million people at age 65 and over in 1982, representing 4.91% of the whole population. It is estimated from the age composition of 1982 and age-specific mortality rate of 1981 that there will be 88 million elderly persons by 2000, 150 million by 2020, and about 300 million as a maximum around 2040.     

Industrialized Animal Production—A Major Source of Nutrient and Microbial Pollution to Aquatic Ecosystems

Livestock production has undergone massive industrialization in recent decades. Nationwide, millions of swine, poultry, and cattle are raised and fed in concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) owned by large, vertically integrated producer corporations. The amount of nutrients (nitrogen and phosphorus) in animal manure produced by CAFOs is enormous. For example, on the North Carolina Coastal Plain alone an estimated 124,000 metric tons of nitrogen and 29,000 metric tons of phosphorus are generated annually by livestock. CAFO wastes are largely either spread on fields as dry litter or pumped into waste lagoons and sprayed as liquid onto fields. Large amounts of nitrogen and phosphorus enter the environment through runoff, percolation into groundwater, and volatilization of ammonia. Many CAFOs are located in nutrient-sensitive watersheds where the wastes contribute to the eutrophication of streams, rivers, and estuaries. There is as yet no comprehensive Federal policy in place to protect the environment and human health from CAFO generated pollutants.     

The use of mortality time series data to produce hypothetical morbidity distributions and project mortality trends

It is difficult to obtain direct empirical estimates of chronic disease prevalence in the U.S. population. The available estimates are usually derived from epidemiological studies of selected populations. In this paper we present strategies for estimating morbidity distributions in the national population using auxiliary biomedical evidence and theory to estimate transitions to morbidity states from a cohort mortality time series. We present computational methods which employ these estimates of morbid state transitions to produce life table functions for both primary (morbidity) and secondary (mortality) decrements. These methods are illustrated using data on stomach cancer mortality for nine white male cohorts, aged 30 to 70 in 1950, observed for a 28-year period (1950 to 1977).     

The population and economic issues in West Asia after WW II]

Using statistical data, this report analyzes population and economic issues in West Asia after World War II. The high rate of development as witnessed in West Asian countries after their gaining of political independence following World War II was accompained by an accelerated population growth. This population growth spead unevenly among different areas. Based on surveys of 17 countries in West Asia, the socioeconomic development and rapid rate of population growth have largely affected the population age, sex, urban and rural residential, and economic sector employment structures. With the help of indicators and mathematical methods to plot population development, these countries can be divided into 3 categories based on population development features. The semiindustrial countries demonstrate a gradually slowing population growth rate, most of these countries having experienced a peak period in the growth rate during the time of population transition. The agricultural countries show a natural population growth rate which is generally considered low. The 3rd category, the oil-producing countries, are currently experiencing a peak in population growth. In general, the popuation growth rate has dramatically accelerated in West Asia since World War II. Between 1950-1960 this rate was 2.58%; between 1960-1970, 2.75%; and between 1970-1980, 2.92%. This rate shows an increase of 6.6% between 1950-1960 and 6.2% between 1960-1970. It surpasses the average world population growth rate and most of the developing country growth rates. It has been augmented by post-World War II economic and social developments.     

Sum up experience to make continuous progress

Population control in China has been very successful in combatting the extremely rapid growth in population (birth rate: 1960's 33.65/1000; 1970's 24.57/1000; 1980's 18.3/1000). The female mean age for 1st marriage has increased from 19 in the 1950's to 22.63 in the 1980's. Infant mortality has declined substantially from the 1950's to the present (200 deaths/1000 vs. 81.3/1000 (cities)). Most people have embraced family planning and population control and have emphasized quality of childrearing vs. quantity. The goals of China's policy are as follows: economic development of the nation and well-being of individuals; coordination of population growth and socioeconomic development; implementation not only in accordance with state condition, but also according to the wishes of the people; continued success of the population and family planning organization network; integration of state guidance with individual voluntariness; and strengthening the unified leadership of the state. China's 3rd baby boom began in 1986 and will last through 1995. Unplanned children will count as 30% of the annual births. Government action is attempting to strengthen family planning education and research. These measures will help control the expected population boom.     

我国家庭动态变化对二氧化碳排放的影响分析

人口数量及其增长率常常被认为是二氧化碳排放增长的重要推动力之一,而家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的影响往往被忽视。基于此,采用VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数来考察人口和家庭变动对二氧化碳排放的动态影响,并用方差分解法揭示其相互影响程度及差异。结果表明,家庭层面变量对二氧化碳排放的影响远大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。考察人口总量、平均家庭规模以及家庭户变动三者对二氧化碳排放影响的贡献差异发现,平均家庭规模对二氧化碳排放的影响大于家庭户变动对二氧化碳排放的影响,且大于人口总量对二氧化碳排放的影响。相对于人口总量,以家庭户为视角来研究人口因素对二氧化碳的影响更为重要。因此,在节能减排的政策建议中,应当更多倡导推广有利于可持续发展的家庭户模式,家庭减排对于减排目标的实现将具有更大的潜力。     

The Soviet Union: population trends and dilemmas

Focus in this discussion of population trends and dilemmas in the Soviet Union is on demographic problems, data limitations, early population growth, geography and resources, the 15 republics of the Soviet Union and nationalities, agriculture and the economy, population growth over the 1950-1980 period (national trend, regional differences); age and sex composition of the population, fertility trends, nationality differentials in fertility, the reasons for fertility differentials (child care, divorce, abortion and contraception, illegitimacy), labor shortages and military personnel, mortality (mortality trends, life expectancy), reasons for mortality increases, urbanization and emigration, and future population prospects and projections. For mid-1982 the population of the Soviet Union was estimated at 270 million. The country's current rate of natural increase (births minus deaths) is about 0.8% a year, higher than current rates of natural increase in the U.S. (0.7%) and in developed countries as a whole (0.6%). Net immigration plays no part in Soviet population growth, but emigration was noticeable in some years during the 1970s, while remaining insignificant relative to total population size. National population growth has dropped by more than half in the last 2 decades, from 1.8% a year in the 1950s to 0.8% in 1980-1981, due mostly to declining fertility. The national fertility decline masks sharp differences among the 15 republics and even more so among the some 125 nationalities. In 1980, the Russian Republic had an estimated fertility rate of 1.9 births/woman, and the rate was just 2.0 in the other 2 Slavic republics, the Ukraine and Belorussia. In the Central Asian republics the rates ranged up to 5.8. Although the Russians will no doubt continue to be the dominant nationality, low fertility and a relatively higher death rate will reduce their share of the total population by less than half by the end of the century. Soviet leaders have launched a pronatalist policy which they hope will lead to an increase in fertility, at least among the dominant Slavic groups of the multinational country. More than 9 billion rubles (U.S. $12.2 billion) is to be spent over the next 5 years to implement measures aimed at increasing state aid to families with children, to be carried out step by step in different regions of the country. It is this writer's opinion that overall fertility is not likely to increase markedly despite the recent efforts of the central authorities, and the Russian share of the total population will probably continue to drop while that of Central Asian Muslim peoples increases.     

我国人口-经济-二氧化碳排放的关联研究

通过全国1995～2008年各省区二氧化碳排放和人口发展状况对比发现,人口与二氧化碳排放之间并不呈现简单的正相关关系。本文引入经济系统对人口与二氧化碳排放之间的关系进行关联分析。研究发现,在短时期内,人口增长对二氧化碳排放的影响不可忽视,但从长远来看,经济增长对二氧化碳排放影响更为重要。值得注意的是,虽然人口和经济增长是二氧化碳排放变化的原因,但当滞后期延长,人口和经济系统之间将互为因果,使得人口和二氧化碳排放的关系将更为复杂。     

Causal Relationships among Population and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The carbon dioxide emissions of the provinces would be calculated from 1995 to 2008.And we compare the provinces’ carbon dioxide emissions and population development.We found that the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions are not a simple correlation.In order to probe the relation,we introduce the economic variable into the research,take advantage the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.The paper found that the population and economic growth is the main reason of carbon dioxide emission change.In short run the population growth would impact the carbon dioxide emissions,and increase in carbon dioxide emissions cannot be simply attributed to overpopulation,economic growth impact on carbon dioxide emissions more strongly.     

Transition of demographic pattern in Japan since World War II and its population problems]

After World War 2 the Japanese population increased sharply at an annual rate of 3.4% from 1947 to 1949, but the rate quickly decreased and stabilized at 1.7% by 1957. It decreased again after 1973 and fell to 1.42% by 1979. In the 1950's most Japanese were forced to use birth control and abortion because of poor economic conditions. The rapid economic development in the 1960's, the increased living standard and educational level, and the population control measures taken by their government were important factors in successfully restraining population growth. The postwar baby boom and the marked population decrease afterward created an irregular population age composition, and the increasing percentage of elderly in Japan placed a heavy burden on their government. Rapid urban developments resulted in abnormal population distribution--53.5% of the population occupying 1.7% of the land, while 7.6% of the population occupied 44.1% of the land. The Japanese government recognized the serious economic consequences of the polarized population distribution and took some corrective measures. Another economic problem, their dependence on foreign imports of natural resources and grains (except rice) is difficult to change because of the shortage of farmland and natural resources in Japan. They have made an obvious improvement in environmental protection in recent years. The next step in Japan is continuing population control and emphasis on the improvement of the population quality.     

Racial concentration and segregation across U.S. counties, 1950–1980

By presenting race-specific population concentration indexes for U.S. counties for the 1950-1980 period, this paper updates and extends previous analyses of 1900-1974 patterns of population concentration by Duncan et al. (1961) and Vining and Strauss (1977). Declines in population concentration persisted through 1980 only among the white population. Blacks continued to experience increases in population concentration between 1970 and 1980. These racially divergent patterns of concentration in the 1970s have translated into increases in segregation between blacks and whites across U.S. counties.     

How do Recent Population Trends Matter to Climate Change?

Although integrated assessment models (IAM) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) consider population as one of the root causes of greenhouse gas emissions, how population dynamics affect climate change is still under debate. Population is rarely mentioned in policy debates on climate change. Studies in the past decade have added significantly to understanding the mechanisms and complexity of population and climate interactions. In addition to the growth of total population size, research shows that changes in population composition (i.e. age, urban–rural residence, and household structure) generate substantial effects on the climate system. Moreover, studies by the impact, vulnerability and adaptation (IAV) community also reveal that population dynamics are critical in the near term for building climate change resilience and within adaptation strategies. This paper explores how global population dynamics affect carbon emissions and climate systems, how recent demographic trends matter to worldwide efforts to adapt to climate change, and how population policies could make differences for climate change mitigation and adaptation.     

The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States

The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.