Partisan Gerrymandering and the Voting Rights Act*

Objective. The goal of the study is to empirically assess the extent of partisan and incumbent gerrymandering in the 2000 congressional redistricting. Critics of congressional redistricting have argued that recent partisan gerrymandering severely undermines electoral competitiveness to the point of violating constitutional equal protection standards. Method. We first analyze the legal precedents and arguments central to the contemporary redistricting debate. We then analyze district‐level data measuring the change in a congressional incumbent's presidential party vote share before and after the 2000 redistricting. We conduct regression analyses that test for partisan and incumbent gerrymandering effects with an eye toward noting implications for the Voting Rights Act, particularly majority‐minority districting. Results. We find that recent redistricting significantly contributed to a further decline in electoral competitiveness; however, most of this decline in competitiveness came through incumbency protection, not partisan gerrymandering. Majority‐minority districts lost about 5 percent incumbent party vote share, though only 3 percent in southern states. Conclusion. Given these results, we conclude that the logic of partisan gerrymandering is at variance with the mandate of racial redistricting. One effect of establishing a strict judicial standard limiting statewide partisan biases would be to restrict states' capacity to draw majority‐minority districts.     

Gerrymandering on Georgia's Mind: The Effects of Redistricting on Vote Choice in the 2006 Midterm Election*

Objective. We make use of individual‐level survey data from the 2006 midterm election in order to determine the degree to which redistricting affected the vote choice of whites residing in Georgia Congressional Districts 8 and 12. Methods. A multivariate probit model was used to assess the probability of voting for the GOP House candidate among voters represented by the same incumbent before and after redistricting versus voters who had been newly drawn into one of these districts. Results. Despite a national tide that favored the Democratic Party in the 2006 elections, redrawn whites were more likely to vote for the Republican challengers in the districts surveyed. Conclusions. Our findings indicate that redistricting can be used to dampen the incumbency advantage. In addition, the findings of this research also speak to the continuing Republican realignment of white voters in the Deep South and to the recognition that the effects of redistricting are dependent on political context.     

Black Voters,Black Candidates,and Social Issues: Does Party Identification Matter?*

Objective. Much is known about voting behavior generally; less is known about voting behavior of African Americans in particular due in part to the overwhelming support of black voters for Democratic candidates. However, some argue that black conservatism on social issues could lead to more Republican voting. Methods. We test this question with a set of data on black voting behavior in a 2004 congressional race where two black candidates ran against each other. We thus hold race of candidate constant and look at the influence of social issues and party identification on black vote choice. Results. We find evidence to suggest that evangelicalism and support for the war in Iraq is related to being Republican, but that Democratic Party identification plays the dominant role in black voter decision making. Conclusions. Black conservatism on at least certain social issues is real and has the potential to influence vote choice, but the influence of Democratic Party allegiance is still a very powerful cue for black voters.     

Race–Based Redistricting, Core Constituencies, and Legislative Responsiveness to Constituency Change

Objective. Fenno (1978), Wright (1989), and other scholars suggest that legislators will be particularly responsive to various subgroups in their constituency, i.e., what might be termed the "core constituency." We explore the degree to which Republican and Democrat House incumbents respond differently to changes in the racial composition of their districts brought about by redistricting. We speculate that (1) Democrat House incumbents will be more responsive in their roll–call behavior to changes in African–American racial composition, since African–American voters are typically a major component of the Democrat core constituency, while (2) Republicans will be less responsive, since African–American voters are typically not part of the Republican coalition. Methods. We utilize data on the roll–call behavior, member characteristics, and constituency characteristics of House members who served during both the 102nd (1991–1992) and 103rd (1993–1994) Congresses. We model roll–call liberalism in 1993 as a function of levels of and changes in district racial composition, along with control variables. To capture the different effects of racial core constituencies, we estimate our models separately for Democratic and Republican House members. Results. Our findings provide strong support for our hypothesis: Democrat incumbents respond strongly both to levels of and changes in the African–American population in their districts, while Republican incumbents respond only modestly to changes in African–American population brought on by redistricting and negatively to African–American population levels. Conclusions. Democrats and Republicans appear to respond differently to constituent groups, depending on whether the groups are part of their core constituency. Our findings suggest the importance of considering core constituencies in studying roll–call behavior and legislative responsiveness.     

Ideological polarization in a decentralized party system: Explaining interstate differences

During the past decade scholars have noted growing ideological polarization between Democratic and Republican Party elites in the United States. This trend has occurred in a party system traditionally characterized as decentralized. This paper examines whether the trend towards partisan polarization noted by scholars at the national level has affected state party systems in similar ways. Are some state party systems more polarized than others? The paper uses a classification scheme of state party systems developed by David Mayhew to try to explain interstate differences in partisan polarization. The paper concludes that states with political environments that supported pragmatic and non-ideological traditional party organizations are less polarized in the modern era than states without such environments.     

Social Identity Theory and Party Identification*

Objective. Given that the group aspect of party identification forms a central, yet largely unexplored element of American partisanship, social identity theory presents a compelling social‐psychological theory of group belonging through which to reinterpret the contemporary understanding of partisanship. Methods. Using a mail survey of 302 randomly selected Franklin County, Ohio residents, levels of social identification with the Democratic Party, the Republican Party, and political independents are measured using the Identification with a Psychological Group (IDPG) scale. Scores on the IDPG are used to predict attitudes toward parties and the consistency of partisan behavior. Results. Levels of partisan social identity proved to be significant predictors of political party ratings, ideology, and party activities, even when taking traditional measures of partisan strength into account. Conclusions. Social identity is a fundamental aspect of partisanship, which, when measured, can lead to superior prediction and understanding of related political attitudes and behaviors.     

The impact of tax rates, political partisanship and economic variables on the distribution of state and local tax burdens

This study finds that the effective state and local tax rate for the top 1% of income households as a percentage of the effective state and local tax rate for the bottom 20% of income households in 2002 is significantly influenced by whether a state has a multi-rate income tax, right-to-work laws, the liberalism of a state's electorate, the average tax burden in a state and past tax policy. Democratic Party strength in state government, Republican or Democratic Party institutional control of state government, change in real per capita income, a Democratic Governor and the change in the share of income going to the top 1% of income households are not significant predictors. The empirical results are identical for the top 2-5% of income households to the bottom 20% of income households.     

Interest group influence on the ideological orientations of local party activists

This paper uses a national survey of local Democratic and Republican Party officials to determine the extent to which interest group attempts to develop a formal organizational presence within the grassroots Democratic and Republican parties might push the parties towards taking more ideologically extreme positions. It is hypothesized that members of predominantly Democratic and Republican groups will be more ideologically extreme than other local party officials. The survey results provide support for the hypothesis. Group-influenced party activists tend to be more ideologically extreme than other party officials. However, while a large percentage of Democratic and Republican local party officials are members of interest groups, only a relatively small percentage reported being recruited to party activism through their group involvement. The survey provides little support for the thesis that interest groups have systematically tried to “take over” grassroots party organizations.     

The influence of socio-economic characteristics on the political attitudes of American Indians

We examine the political attitudes of American Indians in eastern Oklahoma where they make up almost 20% of the population. We argue that American Indians in the region play the same role that other minorities in the southern states—notably blacks and Hispanics—do in resisting the region's realignment from the Democratic to the Republican Party. American Indians in the region are populists in that they are economically liberal and religiously conservative. The results of our analysis suggest that the socio-economic characteristics of American Indians play a greater role in explaining American Indians’ political attitudes than their ethnic identification.     

Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944–2004*

Objective. Perennial questions in electoral studies are what constitutes realignment, and when and where do realignments occur? Using the concepts of critical and secular realignments as a framework, we model change in the end product of realignment, election outcomes. We test for secular and critical changes in partisan strength across six geographic regions of the United States, focusing on office‐holding data at both the federal and state legislative level. Methods. Using an interrupted time‐series model, we examine evidence for secular realignment and posit five critical interventions that have affected American politics since World War II. Results. Our findings suggest that there are elements of both critical and secular realignments at work with different patterns in each region, and that different regions have been affected by a variety of elections associated with critical events since 1944. Conclusions. The collapse of Republican hegemony in the Northeast and Pacific West has gone largely unnoticed, buried in the intense examination of the growth of the Republican Party in the American South. The 1994 election is the most prominent in terms of its impact on seat holding by the parties at both the state and national level, and constitutes a realigning election.     

Voting for Catholic Candidates: The Evolution of a Stereotype*

Objectives. This article looks at the effects of candidate Catholicism on individual voters, turning the traditional inquiry into voters' religion on its head. Specifically, it hypothesizes that individuals stereotype Catholic candidates based on the voting behavior of Catholics in general, and that these stereotypes help voters make a decision in elections with Catholic candidates. Methods. Using data from the American National Election Studies (ANES), this article argues that citizens hold stereotypes of Catholics based on actual Catholic political behavior—solidly Democratic from the 1950s to the 1970s, but trending Republican starting in the 1980s. It also tests these stereotypes with Gallup data on hypothetical Catholic candidates and analyzes, through election‐day exit polls, the impact on voters of the Catholic conversion of a sitting U.S. Senator. Results. The data analyses strongly support the article's hypothesis, demonstrating that partisan attitudes toward hypothetical Catholic candidates shifted direction as the Catholic electorate shifted. In addition, Senator Sam Brownback's (R‐KS) conversion to Catholicism increased partisan polarization in his support—indicating a conservative shift in perceptions. Conclusions. Candidate religion plays a role in elections. Specifically, voters stereotype candidates based on candidate religion and use this stereotyped information to help them make an electoral decision. This article demonstrates this effect for Catholicism, but other religions should evidence similar impacts.     

Sex and the Statehouse: The Effects of Gender on Legislative Roll‐Call Voting*

Objective. This analysis examines whether differences exist between women and men state legislators in their roll‐call voting behavior involving matters of economic and regulatory policy. Methods. Using interest group rating scores, I examine the voting behavior of representatives in the lower houses of 28 states in legislative sessions from 1995 to 2000. By controlling for a host of variables related to legislators (political party, years of service, etc.) and their districts (average income, level of education, urbanization, etc.), I am able to isolate the independent effect of gender on roll‐call voting. Results. The findings demonstrate that among Democratic legislators women are less conservative than men, but among Republican lawmakers women are slightly more conservative than men. Additional analyses show that many factors that influence legislative voting by women and men are similar; however, political party has a more prominent effect among women. Conclusion. Although factors such as political party and some constituency characteristics exert a much stronger influence than gender, women and men legislators differ in their roll‐call voting even when controls for a wide assortment of individual‐ and district‐level conditions are taken into account.     

Executive‐Legislative Relations: Where You Sit Really Does Matter*

Objectives. Do state legislators believe there is a proper balance of power between the governor and the legislature? The research uses both individual and institutional factors to explain the variation in legislators' opinions. Methods. The results of a mail survey sent to all legislators in nine states were used as the basic data source for the study. The dependent variable required the legislators to indicate if a proper balance of power existed. Hierarchical generalized linear modeling (HGLM) was performed. Results. A sizeable majority of legislators (66 percent) thought there was a proper balance of power between the governor and the legislature. HGLM found no discernable role for a number of state‐level characteristics. The analysis did uncover a negative relationship between perceived balance of power and whether the governor had previously served in the legislature. Female legislators were more likely to express a lower level of satisfaction with the balance of power than their male counterparts. The partisan relationship between legislators and governors as well as the majority/minority status of the legislators proved to be most important in explaining legislators' perceptions. Conclusions. Contrary to popular opinion, the relationships between the two branches of government are not inherently contentious. Legislators from the governor's party were most likely to assess the relationship as proper.     

Racial Differences in Public Confidence in Education: 1974–2002*

Objective. This article examines the black‐white gap in confidence in education in the United States and how the gap has changed over time. Method. The study uses ordinal logit regression on General Social Surveys (1974–2002). Results. Whites have less confidence in education, partly because whites tend to have higher levels of education, income, and conservatism, and are more likely to be affiliated with the Republican Party and evangelical denominations. The black‐white gap is largest at lower levels of education, and disappears among college graduates. The gap shrinks during Republican control of the presidency in the United States, and widens during Democratic control. Conclusion. The black‐white gap in confidence is not due solely to individual factors, but also to the larger political context and to the groups' different relationships to the institution of education.     

Beyond Women,Children, and Families: Gender,Representation, and Public Funding for the Arts*

Objectives. Research on the impact of female legislators has found that in their voting records women in elective office tend to be more liberal and more supportive of issues of concern to women, children, and families than are men, differences that conform to gender stereotypes held by voters. This article examines another well‐established gender stereotype that is not linked to the traditional concerns of women as conventionally defined by scholars: that women in public office will be more supportive of the arts. Method. The 40 votes taken on arts legislation in the U.S. House of Representatives, 1983–2002, are examined using negative binomial regression in a model that includes district and personal characteristics. Results. Democratic Party membership and support, citizen ideology, urban residence, and gender are significant factors in explaining support for public funding for the arts. Female representatives are more likely than their male colleagues to support the arts, a finding that primarily reflects the greater support of Republican women for the arts in comparison with their male counterparts. Conclusion. This study suggests that substantive representation of women by female elected officials may extend to more policy issues than previous research has documented. Research on issues that are recognized as gendered (e.g., arts policy) but are not traditionally defined as women's issues is an area for further exploration.     

Presidential voting in the west

Voters in the western United States are becoming more Republican than the rest of the country in their presidential choices. The Solid West has replaced the Solid South as a reality of presidential campaigns. This is in spite of a long term national trend away from strong party loyalties. This article examines the ten states of the Interior West at the county level during the eight presidential elections from 1956 through 1984. All parts of the region did not simultaneously embrace the Republican Party from the onset of the New Western Normal Vote episode. Those areas that lagged were characterized by sizable employment in forestry and mining, large Hispanic or Native American populations, or were among the region's few large urban concentrations. Some of these areas still remain outside the Republican fold in presidential elections. The overall magnitude of change in Republicanism in the 549 counties was not uniform, but rather impacted some areas such as Nevada and Idaho to a much larger degree than others such as Montana and the Dakotas. This article generally confirms Archer and Taylor's assertion that the Western Periphery constitutes a new Republican heartland. But some Indian and Hispanic populations continue to vote for Democratic presidential candidates. Rural areas with strong organized labor such as the mining and forestry areas of Montana, and big cities like Denver are only weakly Republican. Hence, the conversion to strong and unwaivering Republicanism is not total and may never occur.     

Ideological differences between female and male county party chairs

This study compares the ideologies of female and male county party chairs. The data, which are drawn from a 2000 survey of county Democratic and Republican party leaders, show modest gender differences. Women in both parties tend to be more liberal than men on a variety of issues. These gender differences, however, are minor. Women and men in both parties have about the same levels of partisan experience, and, it is speculated, they tend to converge towards organizational norms.     

Stranger Danger: Redistricting,Incumbent Recognition,and Vote Choice*

Objectives. We take a step forward in examining the electoral effects of redistricting by: (1) demonstrating that voters with a new incumbent because of redistricting are less likely to recognize their representative, and (2) voters are less likely to vote for their representative if they fail to recognize him or her. Methods. Our data come from a survey of white respondents who resided in the redrawn Eighth District of Georgia for the 2006 U.S. House elections. We use probit regressions to first measure the effect of redistricting on incumbent recognition. Then, we assess the likelihood of voting for the incumbent depending on whether a respondent was redrawn or has the same incumbent after redistricting, and whether or not the respondent could recognize his or her representative. Results. Our analyses make it clear that redrawn voters were much less likely to recognize their incumbent and it is the inability to recognize one's incumbent, irrespective of whether the representative has changed due to redistricting, which accounts for a reduced likelihood of voting for the incumbent. Conclusions. Other scholars have examined the relationship between redistricting and incumbent recognition. Likewise, many have evaluated the effects of redistricting on vote choice. This article, however, is the first to merge these two relationships. We find that redrawn constituents are less likely to know who their representative is, and it is indeed a lack of familiarity that reduces an incumbent's vote share. Thus, we have shown empirically that the absence of a personal vote, which is exacerbated by redistricting, proves electorally harmful to the incumbent.