How corporate planning responds to uncertainty

This article is based upon an SSRC research project into the influence of computer methods on decision making. During this research, information on the planning systems of a cross-section of British industry was obtained.The paper illustrates how managers in these firms were coping with planning in the present conditions of extreme uncertainty about the future, combined with adverse economic and business conditions. Conventional planning theory, together with some modern observations on it, are briefly described and then the paper shows how, in the firms visited, the structure of planning was more complex than this theory.It goes on to show that today's critical conditions were not leading to management putting aside their plans and computer models and “muddling through’. They were actually leading to an acceleration in the adoption of formal planning and decision making methods but in a somewhat different manner to conventional planning theory.Seven different modes of planning were identified with integrated operational planning being the most common, possibly the most essential to survival and sometimes the only planning possible into today's conditions. A trend to extend the operational plan to 2 to 3 years and to reduce the firm's long range plan from 5 to 3 years was also observed.Long range plans were being considered as planning and decision making tools and not as blue-prints of the firm's future, as accurate long range forecasting was impossible. Three types of strategic planning were identified with that carried out at intervals probably being the most appropriate for medium sized firms in today's conditions.     

Forecasting short-term electricity consumption using the adaptive grey-based approach—An Asian case

The overall electricity consumption, treated as a primary guideline for electricity system planning, is a major measurement to indicate the degree of a nation's development. The electricity consumption forecast is especially important with regard to policy making in developing countries (Asian countries in this work). However, since the economic growth rates in these countries are usually high and unstable, it is difficult to obtain accurate predictions using long-term data, and thus forecasting with limited (short-term) data is more effective and of considerable interest. Grey theory is one approach that can be used to construct a model with limited samples to provide better forecasting advantage for short-term problems. The forecasting performance of AGM(1,1), based on grey theory, has been confirmed using the Asia-Pacific economic cooperation energy database, and the results, compared with those obtained from back propagation neural networks (BPN) and support vector regression (SVR), show that the proposed approach can effectively deal with the problem of forecasting electricity consumption when the sample size is limited.     

EXPLORING THE LIMITS OF THE TECHNOLOGY S-CURVE. PART I: COMPONENT TECHNOLOGIES

The technology S-curve is a useful framework describing the substitution of new for old technologies at the industry level. In this paper I use information from the technological history of the disk drive industry to examine the usefulness of the S-curve framework for managers at the firm level in planning for new technology development. Because improvements in over-all disk drive product performance result from the interaction of improved component technologies and new architectural technologies, each of these must be monitored and managed. This paper focuses on component technology S-curves, and a subsequent paper, also published in this issue of the journal, examines architectural technology Scurves. Improvement in individual components followed S-curve patterns, but I show that the flattening of S-curves is a firm-specific, rather than uniform industry phenomenon. Lack of progress in conventional technologies may be the result, rather than the stimulus, of a forecast that the conventional technology is maturing, and some firms demonstrated the ability to wring far greater levels of performance from existing component technologies than other firms. Attacking entrant firms evidenced a distinct disadvantage versus incumbent firms in developing and using new component technologies. Firms pursuing aggressive Scurve switching strategies in component technology development gained no strategic advantage over firms whose strategies focused on extending the life of established component technologies.     

Future forecasting with LEAP

A rapidly changing business environment has caused numerous firms to adopt some form of environmental assessment as part of their strategic planning process. Extrapolative techniques and trend analysis are useful when forecasting for the short-term and in comparatively stable environments. Futuristic methodologies are appropriate in turbulent environments with long-term planning requirements. The Likelihood of Events Assessment Process (LEAP), a new method of forecasting developed by the author, is explained in detail using examples from a recent study which used top level life insurance executives to predict the relative likelihood of occurrence of planning dates for a set of events in the socio-political environment of business.     

Who Shall Follow? factors affecting the adoption of succession plans in Taiwan

Succession planning is widely believed to help business organizations with internal resourcing, reduce attrition of the work force caused by job-hopping high-fliers, and prepare qualified candidates for appointment to senior management positions. It is further known that when organizations fail to treat their succession plans as living documents, they may not only threaten their own continuity but also lose the opportunity to revitalize themselves. Even so, succession planning has been slow to take root in traditional Chinese businesses, which have been noted for their informal organization, top-down decision making, and emphasis on personal ties and relationships. However, rapid growth and increasingly tougher competition may force these firms to change their style of management. This study assesses the extent to which formal succession planning has taken hold among Taiwanese business firms, and identifies factors underlying the decision to adopt a formal plan. For those local firms that have not introduced formal planning, it seeks to determine the concerns that have inhibited or prevented them from doing so. Finally, this paper attempts to detect differences that may exist between Chinese- and foreign-owned firms in the tendency to adopt succession plans.     

Technological change and technology monitoring process: Evidence from four Italian case studies

Technology monitoring (TM) may take on different meanings in a company’s day-to-day activities. In some cases it can be interpreted as a technology intelligence methodology, while in others it is understood as technology forecasting or even as technology assessment. These different interpretations are confirmed by an analysis of the literature. This case study examines the technology monitoring process in four Italian companies.For each of the cases considered, first we analysed the way technology monitoring is carried out and then we tried to understand what factors influence the company approach to technology monitoring. Four factors that can be expected to influence a company’s technology monitoring approach came out of this empirical research study: the industry a company operates in, the business model it uses, the importance of technology in the corporate culture, and the level of its R&D resources.     

The efficacy of using judgmental versus quantitative forecasting methods in practice

In an era where forecasts drive entire supply chains forecasting is seen as an increasingly critical organizational capability. However, business forecasting continues to rely on judgmental methods despite large advancements in information technology and quantitative method capability, prompting calls for research to help understand the reasons behind this practice. Our study is designed to contribute to this knowledge by profiling differences between firms identified as primary users of either judgmental or quantitative forecasting methods. Relying on survey data from 240 firms we statistically analyzed differences between these categories of users based on a range of organizational and forecasting issues. Our study finds large differences in forecast error rates between the two groups, with users of quantitative methods significantly outperforming users of judgmental methods. The former are found to be equally prevalent regardless of industry, firm size, and product positioning strategy, documenting the benefits of quantitative method use in a variety of settings. By contrast, the latter are found to have significantly lower access to quantifiable data and to use information and technology to a lesser degree.     

Formal planning in major U.S. corporations

As the world about us changes, managers in all types of institutions try to cope in a variety of ways. In the early 1960s, many corporate managers realized they could not make sound decisions about future business activities in an expedient, reactive manner because their firms were growing very large and complex with new technologies, products, markets and competition to deal with. As a result, formal planning techniques which had been used in narrow functional applications were introduced on a much broader scale and formal long-range planning became popular. New corporate planning functions appeared in many companies, as well as new staff planning specialists and planning executives. The author conducted a field study on the design of these systems in the mid-1960s and he argues that they showed great promise for improved management.With this history in mind, we might ask why such subjects as ‘planning techniques’ and ‘problems of implementation’ are still topics of concern. It would seem that such techniques would be well known and established in most firms after 10–15 years. However, this is not the case, for during a second field study of corporate planning systems which was completed in 1976 the author found that many corporations, including some of the largest ones, had redesigned their planning systems in the early 1970s, essentially making a fresh start at formal long-range planning. (See Table 1).From his recent field study the author concludes that all corporations experience problems in implementing and using a formal planning system. The nature of these problems and some possible remedies are the subjects upon which this article focuses.     

Modeling IS Planning Benefits Using ACE

This paper addresses the dearth of research on the determinants of IS planning benefits. Data were collected using a questionnaire survey of top IS executives from 450 companies in Singapore. Of the 103 responses (representing a response rate of 23%), 65 companies undertook IS planning. To test the hypothesis that the determinant-benefit relationships are likely to be nonlinear, the Alternating Conditional Expectations (ACE) algorithm was used. This appears to be the first use of ACE in IS planning research. IS sophistication, communications culture, technology forecasting, top management support, and firm size were found to be nonlinearly related to IS planning benefits (e.g., improved competitiveness, operations, and resource management). For example, IS sophistication affects improved competitiveness positively, and improved resource management negatively. It seems that IS sophistication is directed more at improving competitiveness, even though this may result in less efficient resource management due to bureaucratic procedures. However, at higher levels of IS sophistication, competitiveness stagnates and may even decrease, possibly due to bureaucratic bottlenecks. Implications of our results are discussed.     

Manufacturing resource planning: An information systems model

This paper presents Manufacturing Resource Planning, an information system that will enable the developing and monitoring of strategic plans. Incorporation proven material and capacity requirements planning techniques, strategic planners can determine readily the impact of their plans on the manufacturing resources of the company. Decision making is more coordinated because all managers work from a common data base. However, the attainment of this level of planning sophistication is costly not only in capital outlays for computer software and hardware but also in the time to train users. But those firms who have successfully incorporated this integrated approach to strategic planning feel strongly that the end results justify the expenditures.     

Forecasting Product Returns for Remanufacturing Operations

Driven by legislative pressures, an increasing number of manufacturing companies have been implementing comprehensive recycling and remanufacturing programs. The accurate forecasting of product returns is important for procurement decisions, production planning, and inventory and disposal management in such remanufacturing operations. In this study, we consider a manufacturer that also acts as a remanufacturer, and develop a generalized forecasting approach to determine the distribution of the returns of used products, as well as integrate it with an inventory model to enable production planning and control. We compare our forecasting approach to previous models and show that our approach is more consistent with continuous time, provides accurate estimates when the return lags are exponential in nature, and results in fewer units being held in inventory on average. The analysis revealed that these gains in accuracy resulted in the most cost savings when demand volumes for remanufactured products were high compared to the volume of returned products. Such situations require the frequent acquisition of cores to meet demand. The results show that significant cost savings can be achieved by using the proposed approach for sourcing product returns.     

Strategic Decisions of New Technology Adoption under Asymmetric Information: A Game‐Theoretic Model*

In this paper we explore strategic decision making in new technology adoption by using economic analysis. We show how asymmetric information affects firms' decisions to adopt the technology. We do so in a two‐stage game‐theoretic model where the first‐stage investment results in the acquisition of a new technology that, in the second stage, may give the firm a competitive advantage in the product market. We compare two information structures under which two competing firms have asymmetric information about the future performance (i.e., postadoption costs) of the new technology. We find that equilibrium strategies under asymmetric information are quite different from those under symmetric information. Information asymmetry leads to different incentives and strategic behaviors in the technology adoption game. In contrast to conventional wisdom, our model shows that market uncertainty may actually induce firms to act more aggressively under certain conditions. We also show that having better information is not always a good thing. These results illustrate a key departure from established decision theory.     

Calendar of events

Abstract. Counterbalancing is a new method of forecasting that reduces the systematic component of forecasting error. A graphical interpretation of the method is presented. This intuitive approach reveals the need for variable as opposed to fixed equal weights. The method is expanded to counterbalancing with variable weights, resulting in further reductions in forecasting error. Important applications include (1) power system hourly load forecasting for economic dispatch, (2) information feed forward in continuous process control, and (3) forecasting for scheduling, just in time manufacturing, sales, and distribution requirements planning in global logistics.     

Service Package Switching in Hotel Revenue Management Systems

Revenue Management Systems (RMS) are commonly used in the hotel industry to maximize revenues in the short term. The forecasting‐allocation module is a key tactical component of a hotel RMS. Forecasting involves estimating demand for service packages across all stayover nights in a planning horizon. A service package is a unique combination of physical room, amenities, room price, and advance purchase restrictions. Allocation involves parsing the room inventory among these service packages to maximize revenues. Previous research and existing revenue management systems assume the demand for a service package to be independent of which service packages are available for sale. We develop a new forecasting‐allocation approach that explicitly accounts for this dependence. We compare the performance of the new approach against a baseline approach using a realistic hotel RMS simulation. The baseline approach reflects previous research and existing industry practice. The new approach produces an average revenue increase of at least 16% across scenarios that reflect existing industry conditions.     

Technology management: Fundamental issues for engineering education?

Although technology management has been a subject of concern in recent years, its importance to the technical community is not well established. The fundamental implications of technology management for the engineering profession is explored. A definition of technology is sought that best communicates the full implications of the term. In particular, the importance of knowing “how to apply” in contrast to understanding the “scientific fundamentals” is developed as a basis for defining technology.It is concluded that the current attention being given to technology management has significant fundamental implications for engineering and business education. Technology management is shown to focus attention on the importance of decision making processes for engineers and managers. It is concluded that including decision making as a fundamental engineering process may provide a new basis for structuring the “non-science” part of engineering curricula and provide a link between engineering and business curricula. Coupling this with a recognition of the differing characteristics of what is defined as Science Knowledge and Application Knowledge may provide a new paradigm for better preparing engineering students for entering professional practice and also provide a new basis for planning professional development and life long learning.     

Was müssen Führungskräfte können?

Ethics Education complements business administration only if it teaches strategic competencies that help managers to become better leaders. To this end, this article sketches an ordonomic approach to an economic ethics for competitive markets, to a business ethics for firms (corporate citizens), and to a process ethics for new governance. The core idea of this ordonomic approach is the win-win concept of mutually beneficial value creation. Thus, ordonomics is compatible with the market economy and at the same time supplements the management education in business schools: This approach systematically identifies strategic competencies that enable managers to display the kind of entrepreneurial leadership that is necessary for firms to fulfill their social function of value creation—by making use of moral commitments as a factor of production.     

不对称双寡头企业技术创新投资决策研究

许多研究技术创新投资决策的期权博弈文献忽视了企业之间的投资成本和经营成本的不对称性,本文研究成本不对称双寡头企业技术创新投资决策问题。首先,导出企业投资收益函数和投资临界值。接着对存在的三种均衡,即抢占均衡、序列均衡和同时投资均衡进行了分析讨论,结果表明,成本不对称程度较小和先动优势不大情况下,企业将同时投资;当先动优势较大的情况下,低成本企业将先投资成为领先者;当企业成本不对称程度很大时,企业将序列执行投资期权。最后,结合案例进行数值计算,验证了理论分析结果。     

Environmental forecasting and non-profit professional organizations

To undertake any kind of realistic planning activity, it is useful to have a long-term environmental forecast which provides the planner with an overall perspective. The planner will be functioning over the next decade in a very dynamic, complex and challenging political, economic, technological and social environment, and will require very effective planning efforts to cope with such changing environment. This article presents an approach and methodology that a planner could use in his/her organization's planning process. To the best of our knowledge, very few organizations—profit and non-profit oriented—undertake a formal long-term environmental forecast. This article might encourage several planners to examine this area of long range planning in their respective organizations. The long- term environmental forecasting approach presented in this article could be applied by planners in all types of organizations—small or large, profit oriented or non-profit oriented, old or new. This article, however, is based on a study which the authors did for a non-profit organization.     

The Modern Call Center: A Multi‐Disciplinary Perspective on Operations Management Research

Call centers are an increasingly important part of today's business world, employing millions of agents across the globe and serving as a primary customer‐facing channel for firms in many different industries. Call centers have been a fertile area for operations management researchers in several domains, including forecasting, capacity planning, queueing, and personnel scheduling. In addition, as telecommunications and information technology have advanced over the past several years, the operational challenges faced by call center managers have become more complicated. Issues associated with human resources management, sales, and marketing have also become increasingly relevant to call center operations and associated academic research. In this paper, we provide a survey of the recent literature on call center operations management. Along with traditional research areas, we pay special attention to new management challenges that have been caused by emerging technologies, to behavioral issues associated with both call center agents and customers, and to the interface between call center operations and sales and marketing. We identify a handful of broad themes for future investigation while also pointing out several very specific research opportunities.     

Building dynamic capabilities for digital transformation: An ongoing process of strategic renewal

In this qualitative study, we explore how incumbent firms in traditional industries build dynamic capabilities for digital transformation. Digital transformation has been defined as the use of new digital technologies, such as mobile, artificial intelligence, cloud, blockchain, and the Internet of things (IoT) technologies, to enable major business improvements to augment customer experience, streamline operations, or create new business models. In making sense of digital transformation, we discovered that leaders in various industry circles use the term inconsistently to describe various strategizing and organizing activities; in addition, the term has gained limited scholarly attention as a context for study of strategic change. Drawing on senior executives' experiences with leading digitalization projects at incumbent firms, we propose a process model comprising of nine microfoundations to reveal the generic contingency factors that trigger, enable, and hinder the building of dynamic capabilities for digital transformation. Our findings reveal that digital transformation is an ongoing process of using new digital technologies in everyday organizational life, which recognizes agility as the core mechanism for the strategic renewal of an organization's (1) business model, (2) collaborative approach, and eventually the (3) culture.