On the foundations of decision making under partial information

We show how to model incompleteness in the decision maker's judgements, within a Bayesian context, providing axioms which lead us to work with families of values or probabilities and utilities. The proper solution concepts are suggested. On the whole, we provide a more robust decision theory, based on a weaker set of axioms, but embodying coherence, since it essentially implies carrying out a family of coherent decision analyses.     

The foundations of decision theory: An intuitive,operational approach with mathematical extensions

A new axiomatic basis for the foundations of decision theory is introduced and its mathematical development outlined. The system combines direct intuitive operational appeal with considerable structural flexibility in the resulting mathematical framework.     

Poverty and economic decision making: a review of scarcity theory

Theory and Decision - Poverty is associated with a wide range of counterproductive economic behaviors. Scarcity theory proposes that poverty itself induces a scarcity mindset, which subsequently...     

On matrix probabilities in nonarchimedean decision theory

In an earlier paper, we axiomatized a lexicographic expected utility model for preference in decision under uncertainty that is patterned on the models of Ramsey and Savage but omits their Archimedean axioms. Our model has the unusual feature that subjective probabilities are matrices that premultiply utility vectors in the lexicographic representation of preference between acts. Our purpose here is to analyze the model in relation to the Ramsey-Savage theory along with other models that have a lexicographic feature. A point of departure is Savage's postulate P4, whose purpose is to weakly order hisis more probable than relation on events. This postulate does not hold in our model and we therefore encounter incomparability between events. The paper explores the nature of incomparability, which can be widespread in high-dimensional situations. We include special cases of our model that retain a lexicographic component but also satisfy P4.     

On the foundations of mean-variance analyses

Let (, ) and (, ) be mean-standard deviation pairs of two probability distributions on the real line. Mean-variance analyses presume that the preferred distribution depends solely on these pairs, with primary preference given to larger mean and smaller variance. This presumption, in conjunction with the assumption that one distribution is better than a second distribution if the mass of the first is completely to the right of the mass of the second, implies that (, ) is preferred to (, ) if and only if either > or ( = and < ), provided that the set of distributions is sufficiently rich. The latter provision fails if the outcomes of all distributions lie in a finite interval, but then it is still possible to arrive at more liberal dominance conclusions between (, ) and (, ).This research was supported by the Office of Naval Research.     

危机应对的经济学原理

20 0 3年发生的“非典”疫情 ,引发了人们对危机应对机制的进一步思考。本文阐述了应对危机的经济学原理 ,并分析了三方面的问题 :危机的不确定性与应对危机的信息机制 ;及时采取公共卫生政策 ,提供公共物品 ;根据危机的不同性质和特点 ,及时采取相应的经济政策以稳定局势。     

A multiattribute decision time theory

In this study, we analyze choice in the presence of some conflict that affects the decision time (response time), a subject that has been documented in the literature. We axiomatize a multiattribute decision time (MDT) representation, which is a dynamic extension of the classic multiattribute expected utility theory that allows potentially incomplete preferences. Under this framework, one alternative is preferred to another in a certain period if and only if the weighted sum of the attribute-dependent expected utility induced by the former alternative is larger than that induced by the latter for all attribute weights in a closed and convex set. MDT uniquely determines the decision time as the earliest period at which the ranking between alternatives becomes decisive. The comparative statics result indicates that the decision time provides useful information to locate indifference curves in a specific setting. MDT also explains various empirical findings in economics and other relevant fields.     

Nontransitive preferences in decision theory

Intransitive preferences have been a topic of curiosity, study, and debate over the past 40 years. Many economists and decision theorists insist on transitivity as the cornerstone of rational choice, and even in behavioral decision theory intransitivities are often attributed to faulty experiments, random or sloppy choices, poor judgment, or unexamined biases. But others see intransitive preferences as potential truths of reasoned comparisons and propose representations of preferences that accommodate intransitivities. This article offers a partial survey of models for intransitive preferences in a variety of decisional contexts. These include economic consumer theory, multiattribute utility theory, game theory, preference between time streams, and decision making under risk and uncertainty. The survey is preceded by a discussion of issues that bear on the relevance and reasonableness of intransitivity.     

Experimental evidence on case-based decision theory

This paper starts out from the proposition that case-based decision theory (CBDT) is an appropriate tool to explain human decision behavior in situations of structural ignorance. Although the developers of CBDT suggest its reality adequacy, CBDT has not yet been tested empirically very often, especially not in repetitive decision situations. Therefore, our main objective is to analyse the decision behavior of subjects in a repeated-choice experiment by comparing the explanation power of CBDT to reinforcement learning and to classical decision criteria under uncertainty namely maximin, maximax, and pessimism-optimism. Our findings substantiate a predominant significantly higher validity of CBDT compared to the classical criteria and to reinforcement learning. For this reason, the experimental results confirm the suggested reality adequacy of CBDT in repetitive decision situations of structural ignorance.     

A decision theory of clergy political behavior

Studies of clergy political behavior have used one of two empirical lenses to explain clergy actions—ideology and contextual influences. The first lens generally supposes that clergy behave according to their sincerely held preferences; the second takes personal ideology into account, but suggests that clergy are also subject to influence from the environment in which they serve. While both approaches have received adequate attention, there has been no attempt to develop a systematic decision theory outlining when and why clergy might elect to follow their ideological preferences in some cases, and respond to contextual influence in others. This research note proposes a decision theory based on work in the congressional behavior scholarship. It outlines the conditions under which clergy use their sincere preferences and reference group cues to determine their political behavior. It then tests these propositions using data from two national surveys of American clergy.     

On some aspects of decision theory under uncertainty: rationality,price-probabilities and the Dutch book argument

Theory and Decision - Choice under uncertainty is treated in economics by different approaches. We can distinguish three of them, two of which concern individual choice, while the third frames...     

On the dynamic measurement of economic openness

The empirical relationship between economic openness and economic performance is much debated in the economic literature. No definitive conclusions seem to be reached yet, part of the problem being the very measurement of economic openness of a national economy. In their article in the Journal of Policy Modeling, Ruíz Estrada & Yap (2006) propose a new method to measure economic openness and to empirically assess the openness–growth nexus as a new tool for policy-makers: the Openness Growth Monitoring Model (OGM-Model). The authors claim: (i) that their method is different from and more flexible than existing empirical methods, (ii) that higher levels of openness do not lead to income growth, and (iii) that customs unions perform better than free trade areas. This short article challenges the three claims of the authors.     

Medicine and the paradigm of Neo-pragmatism a contribution to medical decision theory

Summary The epistemological paradigm of Systematic Neo-Pragmatism, supported by the author, is closely connected with the (semiotic-) pragmatical notion of model. The latter is expounded, and the models in medicine are characterised on the basis of flow charts and correlation-diagrams of the process of diagnosis. Furthermore, the neo-pragmatic concept of medicine is developed and it is shown how medicine is to be defined as a science of action. Finally, a holistic notion of reality in medicine is presented for which the interaction of subject and object as well as the unity of knowledge and action is important.This article is the revised version of a lecture delivered by the author at a symposium held at the Medizinische Universitätsklinik (university hospital), Cologne, 1 October 1982. The lecture has been published in German in Modelle und Realitäten in der Medizin, ed. R. Gross (Stuttgart-New York: Schattauer, 1983, pp. 7–22). For the present publication, the material has been brought up to date. I wish to thank Professor Gross, the editor of Modelle und Realitäten and the publishing house of Schattauer for their kind permission to reprint translated passages from this volume.     

论唯物史观的经济分析范式(英文)

唯物史观的经济分析范式具有体现唯物史观特征的基本框架，作为自觉运用的科学分析方法，它是经济领域的客观辩证法在头脑中的反映，包括运用马克思主义经济学范畴、原理的分析功能和把握唯物史观分析路径的辩证法要素这两个方面；与西方经济学分析方法对比，唯物史观经济分析方法具有显著的科学特征和优势，其理论创新是由唯物史观的科学性质决定的。     

浅析人口红利对经济增长的影响

人口红利是从人口年龄结构的角度,对人口状况的一种描述,即劳动力资源相对比较丰富,社会总抚养系数较低的状况。人口红利对经济增长的影响作用,已引起众多学者的讨论。论文在阐述人口红利的概念与经济增长的条件的基础上,探讨了人口红利对经济增长的影响。