制度与信任形成的微观机制——兼评房莉杰《制度信任的形成过程》

本文试图从博弈论的视角为信任的发生机制提供微观行为基础,并重新解释新型农村合作医疗制度中的信任问题。信任是对交易关系中利益相关方可能采取的对各方都有利的合作性策略行为的一种概括化的、稳定性的期望,也是人们理性选择的结果。信任形成的关键是需要一系列触发机制不断地强化而形成稳定的预期。〖JP2〗在对新型农村合作医疗制度及其涉及的农民信任问题解释时发现,大量的触发机制发挥了积极的反馈强化作用,如说服与政治动员、加大资助特殊群体、引入家庭账户、提高补偿程度、信息公开等。正是这些触发机制的正反馈作用,农民逐渐相信农村合作医疗管理机构及其他的医疗保险服务机构等,他们所采取合作性的策略行为承诺是可信任和期待的。     

Resolving the Trust Predicament: A Quantum Game-theoretic Approach

Developing a good theoretical understanding of the role of trust in IR (such as in the events leading to the end of the Cold War) is still an open problem. Most game-theoretic studies of trust do not go beyond the limitations of an (ontologically) individualistic paradigm, thus assuming a pre-defined set of individual strategies. Yet, it is a fact that the predicament of collective trust is empirically resolved in many situations. This paper suggests a new game-theoretic approach—Quantum Game Theory (QGT)—to understand and explain how the predicament of trust is resolved. In a quantum game of trust the actors play the game by simultaneously collectively reconstructing the strategic environment in such a way as to become mutually strategically entangled. Quantum strategic entanglement allows trust to emerge between the two actors without assuming a need for signaling, prior “contract” type of arrangement, or any form of third-party communication. The paper develops and solves such a model of quantum game of trust     

Trust, Staking, and Expectations

Trust is a kind of risky reliance on another person. Social scientists have offered two basic accounts of trust: predictive expectation accounts and staking (betting) accounts. Predictive expectation accounts identify trust with a judgment that performance is likely. Staking accounts identify trust with a judgment that reliance on the person's performance is worthwhile. I argue (1) that these two views of trust are different, (2) that the staking account is preferable to the predictive expectation account on grounds of intuitive adequacy and coherence with plausible explanations of action; and (3) that there are counterexamples to both accounts. I then set forward an additional necessary condition on trust (added to the staking view), according to which trust implies a moral expectation. When A trusts B to do x , A ascribes to B an obligation to do x , and holds B to this obligation. This Moral Expectation view throws new light on some of the consequences of misplaced trust. I use the example of physicians' defensive behavior/defensive medicine to illustrate this final point.     

Entitlement and the efficiency-equality trade-off: an experimental study

When randomly assigning participants to experimental roles and the according payment prospects, participants seem to receive “manna from heaven.” In our view, this seriously questions the validity of laboratory findings. We depart from this by auctioning off player roles via the incentive compatible random price mechanism thus avoiding the selection effect of competitive second price auctions. Our experiment employs the generosity game where the proposer chooses the size of the pie, facing an exogenously given own agreement payoff, and the responder is the residual claimant. We find that entitlement crowds out equality seeking and strengthens efficiency seeking. More generally, we find that inducing entitlement for the roles in which participants find themselves makes a difference. Interpreting participants’ willingness to pay for their role as their aspiration level further allows to test satisficing and explore “mutual satisficing.” We find that responder participants apparently do not anticipate proposer generosity in aspiration formation.     

社会信任与基层社区治理效应的因果机制

本文尝试回答社会信任对基层社区治理效应产生影响的具体机制。本文认为,社会信任通过具体的中间传输机制影响基层社区治理效应。根据以往理论和实证发现,本研究选取并检验了选举质量、大众参与和非政府组织等三个具体的中间机制。结果表明,社会信任虽然对社区治理有着重要影响,但其影响并非直接的,而是借由中间机制实现的;普遍信任对选举质量产生显著的正面影响,即对社区居委会的治理效应产生积极影响;特殊信任对选举质量和业委会建立产生显著的负面影响,进而对社区居委会的治理效应产生消极影响。     

国家间信任研究的路径比较:从博弈论到社会网络分析

国家间信任是关乎合作与冲突的重要议题,对不确定的国际体系而言尤为重要。梳理现有的研究文献,笔者归纳出国家间信任分析的三种主路径,它们的思路存在较大差异:博弈论从理性选择角度分析信任关系对成本支出的改变,进而影响合作建立与维持;合法化机制一方面从强式制度主义出发解释制度结构对信任的制约,另一方面也从弱势规范意义上分析了信任与规范、身份的关系,它认为国家选择信任除了利益动机之外还有被社会承认的合法化需要;网络分析则关注社会关系如何孕育信任,"嵌入性"视角试图在宏观与微观分析之间建立"第三条道路"。梳理、评介不同的研究路径有助于促进国际信任研究的发展。     

网络互动中人际信任概念辨析

因特网的虚拟性和匿名性等特征,使网络人际信任的内涵有别于现实社会。网络人际信任是交往双方对对方能够完成自己所托付之事的一种概括化期望,是心理预期和行为策略的统一。风险小、潜在威胁小是网络人际信任的基础;情感风险是网络人际信任的主要内容;文本符号是网络人际信任关系的中介。     

Use of data on planned contributions and stated beliefs in the measurement of social preferences

In a series of one-shot linear public goods game, we ask subjects to report their contributions, their contribution plans for the next period, and their first-order beliefs about their present and future partner. We estimate subjects’ preferences from plan data by a finite mixture approach and compare the results with those obtained from contribution data. Controlling for beliefs, which incorporate the information about the others’ decisions, we are able to show that plans convey accurate information about subjects’ preferences and, consequently, are good predictors of their future behavior.     

信任的本质及其文化

随着信任的研究越来越受重视,信任的含义也在不同的学科领域中越来越复杂。如果回到常理及其文化中来讨论信任,它所展现出来的特征可分为无约束机制的信任和有约束机制的信任,并在文化意义上导致信任地带的位移。在中国文化中,信任是人们在社会交往发生可疑时而形成的中间地带,可细分为放心关系和信任关系及无信任关系。其划分原因源自中西文化对人性及其社会依赖性的不同假定以及它们所构成的关系网络偏向或制度性偏向。由此,信任的本质是社会成员在面对社会不确定性和复杂性增加时体现出的对自己依赖对象所维持的时空性特征。以这种框架来重新处理以往有关中国社会信任研究中的争议和困惑,很多方面的问题可以得到合理的解释。     

Trust and Ethnic Tolerance in the Face of Social Change

The primary goals of this article are to examine conceptual approaches to the study of trust, summarize the tools that can be used in such studies, and use empirical data to elucidate the concept of a “culture of trust.” It also discusses certain problems involved in the empirical study of generalized trust and concludes that ethnic tolerance is one element of a culture of trust. The article presents the results of a 2014 sociological study of Muscovites that was carried out using formalized interviews. This study examined the attitude of trust and subjective bases of trust and mistrust that have developed within Moscow society. A three-stage random territorial probability sampling was used, distributed across administrative districts proportional to their population sizes. The 800-respondent sample was representative in terms of sex and age. Using a simple 4-point scale, our study found that Moscow’s population is strongly polarized in terms of trust—47.6 percent are inclined to be trusting while 46.5 percent are not. Trust networks in Moscow are primarily built around close family and friends. There is a clear lack of basic trust. The study’s results suggest that generalized trust and ethnic tolerance are interrelated. What links these processes are the collaborative relationships that form based on ties of friendship and neighborliness.     

The Self-Fulfilling Property of Trust: An Experimental Study

A person is said to be ‘trust responsive’ if she fulfils trust because she believes the truster trusts her. The experiment we report was designed to test for trust responsiveness and its robustness across payoff structures, and to discriminate it from other possible factors making for trustworthiness, including perceived kindness, perceived need and inequality aversion. We elicit the truster’s confidence that the trustee will fulfil, and the trustee’s belief about the truster’s confidence after the trustee receives evidence relevant to this. We find evidence of strong trust responsiveness. We also find that perceptions of kindness and of need increase trust responsiveness, and that they do so only in conjunction with trust responsiveness.      

国家崛起与信任状态:一项研究议程

一般认为,国家崛起与外部信任构建过程并不具有兼容性,崛起国与主导国之间一定会产生某种程度的猜忌和疑虑。国际关系的信任理论则认为,这种疑虑关系属于一种工具信任形态,并未排除基本信任成分。按照信任关系发展的基本层度,在工具信任、情感信任之间可以建立"关系信任"的状态,本文尝试从关系本位出发,构建关于崛起与信任之间的关系理解框架,探究二者同向展开的可能性。最近20年中美信任关系的演进过程已证实:安全崛起的良善前景,关键在于持存关系信任,重视共在策略,增续情感成分,调整相互预期,避免长期滞留于低信任层度。     

Institutional Incentives and Trust: Marginalized Groups and the Creation of Trust in Local Government*

Objectives. There is an important theoretical debate concerning whether institutional trust can be created. Since very few governments actually try to promote trust directly, it has been difficult to test this debate empirically. To investigate this debate, we examine an innovative new program in Japan that is specifically designed to promote trust in institutions—community currencies. Methods. We use propensity score matching to determine if community currency program participation in Japan increases institutional trust. Results. We find that participation increases institutional trust. Additionally, we find that supporters of political parties with little political power receive a greater impact from program participation. Conclusions. These results show that institutional trust can be increased by participation in incentive programs of cooperation, and suggest that members of marginalized groups will benefit more from program participation.     

饮食社交对政治信任的侵蚀及差异分析：关系资本的“副作用”

本文使用2009年中国八城市“社会网络与职业经历”(JSNET)问卷调查数据,探讨饮食社交对政治信任的影响。实证分析结果表明,城镇居民的社交聚餐频率对政治信任各维度均有负向效应,且这种侵蚀效应在不同体制、不同性别、不同学历和不同地区的人群间具有显著差别。本文的研究结果表明,以“饭局”为途径来积累、维系和动员关系资本的过程,在特定的情境下往往伴随社会层面的消极影响,对政治信任带来“副作用”。     

Parties,Institutional Control,and Trust in Government*

Objectives. Partisanship should affect evaluations of Congress just as it affects evaluations of the president, and these institutional evaluations should affect political trust. We argue that the relationship between partisanship and trust is dependent on partisan control of Congress and that much of party identification's influence on trust occurs indirectly through approval of governmental institutions. Methods. Using data collected before and after the 2002 congressional elections by the Center for Survey Research and Analysis at the University of Connecticut, we examine changes in frequency distributions and mean values for trust and institutional approval. We use multivariate regression models and a path model to estimate the causes of political trust and self‐perceived change in trust. Results. We find evidence that party control of government and party identification are important in explaining trust and institutional approval. The Republican takeover of the Senate led Republicans to evaluate the Senate more favorably and to become more trusting of the government, while having the opposite effect on Democrats. Conclusions. The changes in approval and trust resulting from the 2002 elections suggest that at least some segment of the population is cognizant of changes in the political environment and updates its views of government when the political environment changes.     

Delay in a bargaining game with contracts

In a multilateral bargaining game where a proposer and responders can set up a “principal–agent” relationship by means of binding cash-offer contracts, we show that there is a Markov SPE with a delay in reaching an agreement. We also show that all the individually rational and efficient payoffs can be supported by SPE.      

Exploring the Relationship Between Trust in Government and the Provision of Social Services in Countries of the Global South: The Case of Palestine

ABSTRACT

Using a data set combining two surveys that were conducted by Birzeit University in Palestine, the study investigates the role that trust in government plays in the provision of social services in Palestine (N= 1,314). The relationship between trust in government and selected sociodemographic characteristics is also explored. Results from the bivariate and regression analyses performed reveal that perceived trust in government is significantly related to government performance and a respondent's gender, income, education, and political affiliation. Implications for practice and future research are discussed.     

The Civilizing Process of Trust: Developing Quality Mechanisms which are Local,Professional‐led and thus Legitimate

‘Quality’ and ‘performance’ have become defining concepts for policymakers and health‐care systems alike. Yet whilst these principles are of fundamental importance, their practical implementation and assurance are far from straightforward. This commentary analyses the difficulties faced in enhancing quality and performance in the English NHS. Many recent initiatives have been driven through incentives and external auditing of the professionals providing health care on the frontline. Drawing on recent literature and research findings, we argue that this checking‐based ‘audit culture’ is fundamentally flawed in driving quality and performance. Many targets and measures are too crude to reflect important aspects affecting patient outcomes and therefore these frameworks lack legitimacy amongst professionals. An alternative, trust‐based model is proposed – one more capable of acknowledging the meaning, complexity and specificities inherent to professional work. Quality mechanisms developed locally by professionals are able to produce the legitimacy crucial for their effectiveness. It is argued that the normative obligation of approaches based on conditional trust is a more compelling incentive towards good practice than targets and sanctions. This governance by ‘the social’ is able to motivate a more holistically enlightened and consistent reflexivity towards practice, though it is only able to flourish in the absence of purposive‐rational systems.     

信托政治论

信托政治,就是以信任和委托为支点的政治。在信托政治关系中,包括两类主体:政治的委托者和政治的受托者。受托者基于委托者的信任和托付,既获得了执掌政治的权力,但也必须承担作为受托者的、不容推卸的政治责任和道德义务。信托政治的观念在中国传统文化中源远流长,是数千年来封建王朝更迭的理论基础;在现代中国,信托政治理论也蕴含着值得进一步挖掘的潜力。信托政治的观念不但有助于解释当代中国的政治现实,而且还具有强烈的实践指向性。     

Do Americans Trust Other Nations? A Panel Study*

Objectives. This study examines Americans' generalized beliefs about how much the United States can trust other nations, as well as changes over time in such beliefs. Methods. We analyze original panel survey data collected in 2001 and 2002. Results. Although only a minority of panel respondents expressed generalized trust in other nations immediately after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, even fewer expressed such trust when reinterviewed almost a year later. Social trust, political trust, and party loyalties predicted individual‐level change in this form of trust from 2001 to 2002. Conclusions. Declining trust in other nations may have important implications for public opinion and, ultimately, public policy regarding world affairs.