The Relation Between Probability and Evidence Judgment: An Extension of Support Theory

We propose a theory that relates perceived evidence to numerical probability judgment. The most successful prior account of this relation is Support Theory, advanced in Tversky and Koehler (1994). Support Theory, however, implies additive probability estimates for binary partitions. In contrast, superadditivity has been documented in Macchi, Osherson, and Krantz (1999), and both sub- and superadditivity appear in the experiments reported here. Nonadditivity suggests asymmetry in the processing of focal and nonfocal hypotheses, even within binary partitions. We extend Support Theory by revising its basic equation to allow such asymmetry, and compare the two equations' ability to predict numerical assessments of probability from scaled estimates of evidence for and against a given proposition. Both between- and within-subject experimental designs are employed for this purpose. We find that the revised equation is more accurate than the original Support Theory equation. The implications of asymmetric processing on qualitative assessments of chance are also briefly discussed.     

Turnover in the Child Welfare Workforce: A Different Perspective

ABSTRACT

Child welfare agencies across the country are experiencing a workforce crisis involving high staff turnover rates. The purpose of this study was to determine which of the organizational, personal, and supervisory variables identified in prior research on this topic are most associated with intent to leave among employees in urban and rural child welfare settings. Four-hundred-and-forty-seven employees in 13 child welfare agencies participated in a survey addressing organizational, personal, and supervisory factors related to turnover. ANOVA, logistical regression, and structural equation modeling were used in the data analysis. The organizational and supervisory variables identified as significant in the logistic regression, as in earlier research, were not significant when the data were subjected to structural equation modeling. Instead, findings suggest that career satisfaction and satisfaction with paperwork are the key determinants of workers' intention to stay.     

A theoretical model of religiosity and drug use with reciprocal relationships: A test using structural equation modeling

Abstract

This study of 1093 adolescents from 6 public high schools was designed to test a hypothesized model formulated by theoretical elaboration of control theory with elements from social learning theory using structural equation modeling procedures. The primary purpose was to establish that religion is relevant to illicit drug use when its direct, indirect and reciprocal effects are tested within a more complete system of relationships than found in existing studies. Most aspects of the model were supported by data and religion had direct inverse effects on illegal drug use for all adolescents studied. However, the feedback effects of drug use on religion were significant only among younger adolescents and females. Other age and gender differences were observed when the hypothesized model was tested with structural equation modeling procedures. The implications of these findings were discussed in regard to future conceptual work and intervention.     

A model of the inflationary process in six major O.E.C.D. economies: Empirical results and policy implications

In contrast to most recent empirical work on inflation which has concentrated on the size and stability of coefficients in the wage equation, this paper provides a reexamination of the price equation. Evidence is presented on the structural determinants of inflation in six large industrial nations. It is demonstrated that price equations which include capital costs and excess demand among the regressors perform exceedingly well according to the usual statistical criteria. The results of this study indicate that the inflationary process possesses a high degree of uniformity among the larger industrial countries. This pertains not only with respect to the specific independent variables in price equations, but also with respect to the high degree of uniformity of the estimated coefficients. Additionally, the findings indicate that lower productivity growth and higher capital costs have contributed significantly to the inflationary process since 1974. Furthermore, since higher capital costs are one consequence of tighter monetary policies, the adoption of such policies in response to the two oil price shocks of the 1970s may have offset their intended deflationary effects on prices through the linkage of wage costs and aggregate demand.     

The Impact of Divorce Laws on Divorce Rate in Australia: A Time Series Analysis

This paper investigates the impact of the two major divorce law changes in Australia on the level and the trend of divorce rates. A time series analysis indicated that the impact of the Matrimonial Causes Act was negligible, while that of the Family Law Act was substantial, but temporary in its nature. A non-linear regression equation indicated that by 1979 the divorce rate was returning to a level consonant with the pre-1975 trends. The authors concentrated on explaining the change related to the emergence of the 1975 law and addressed the question whether the post-1976 increase could be regarded as indicating that the FLA undermined the stability of Australian marriages.     

Consistent price determination of income and production: A singular equation system applied to the MPS model

In this article we present a general methodology that can be used to estimate a singular equation system of relative prices for a large disaggregated macroeconometric model (MPS). The accounts consistency requirements and the necessity to utilize distributed lag restrictions and to impose a serial correlation structure on the estimated model make these sum constraints rather cumbersome. Estimates of the MPS model and multiplier analysis illustrate the use of these constraints on a large forecasting model as well as the feasibility of the technique.     

Private prayer among Alzheimer's caregivers: mediating burden and resiliency

This study examined whether the coping method of private prayer served as a protective factor of resiliency among a sample (N = 304) of Alzheimer's caregivers. Participants in caregiver support groups completed questionnaires that assessed a number of constructs, including caregiving burden; prayer frequency; use of private prayer as a means of coping; and perceived resiliency. The sample averaged a moderate level of burden and a great extent of prayer usage. Caregiving burden had positively affected the extent of prayer usage and negatively influenced perceived resiliency. Findings from hierarchical regression analysis showed that caregiving burden and private prayer significantly influenced variation in perceived resiliency scores. Results from a regression equation series and path analysis provided support for prayer as a mediator between burden and perceived resiliency. Implications for social work practice and education are discussed.     

A Preliminary Examination of the Knowledge of Normative Infant Development (KNID) Inventory Using Structural Equation Modeling

Structural equation modeling is a general statistical model that combines confirmatory factor analysis, multiple regression, and path analysis. It provides a comprehensive approach for testing the adequacy of measures, but virtually no applications of this approach exist in the social work literature. This article presents a new measure of parental knowledge of normative infant development, it describes the use of structural equation modeling to analyze the results of a study of 273 mothers designed to test this measure, and it discusses general considerations in the use of structural equation modeling to test measures. Results indicate that the Knowledge of Normative Infant Development (KNID) inventory measures two uncorrelated factors, early and late expectations of infant development. Each of these factors is distinct from but correlated positively with maltreating expectations, as predicted. Contrary to predictions, neither factor is correlated with family conflict.     

Asset markets and foreign exchange intervention: A model of the Belgo-Luxemburg economic union

In this article a general formulation of government intervention policies in the foreign exchange market is integrated in the framework of an asset market model. The policy reaction function is based on a trade off between exchange rate and reserve stock fluctuations; constant exchange rates and a pure float are derived as limiting cases of the intervention schedule. An exchange rate equation is derived from the short run portfolio equilibrium of the model and is successfully tested using data for the Belgo-Luxemburg Economic Union (1967–1979). Our policy conclusions contrast the European Snake constraints for the Belgian Franc with Artus's findings (IMF Staff Papers XXIII(2), July 1976) for the leading DM.     

Forgiveness, Reconciliation, and Shame: Three Key Variables in Reducing School Bullying

This study examined the relationships between forgiveness, reconciliation, shame and school bullying. The sample consisted of 1,875 Bangladeshi adolescents (60% girls) in grades 7 to 10 ( M = 8.28). In a structural equation model, both forgiveness and reconciliation directly predicted less bullying. In addition to the direct effect, an indirect pathway showed reconciliation reduced bullying via adaptive shame management. Shame acknowledgment predicted less bullying whereas shame displacement predicted more in accord with the shame management theory. An alternative model was also tested, which demonstrated that parental forgiveness eroded when children displaced their shame. The nature of the intersection between these two theoretically viable psychological models has implications for both restorative justice theory and practice.     

A Structuralist Interpretation of the Fishbeinian Model of Intention

The traditional paradigm for research relating to the Fishbeinian model of intention is described and some of its limitations are discussed. A structuralist interpretation of the Fishbeinian equation is then put forward from the standpoint of the ethogenic perspective advocated by Harré and Secord. Each component of the Fishbeinian equation is assumed to be the symbolic expression of an account (or accounts) which is attributable to the agent and relates to the act in question. The equation as a whole is then interpreted as a rule governing the intelligibility of a cluster of such accounts. Empirical studies are reported which examine the consequences of transgressing the rule of intelligibility and which use instances of transgression as a means to theoretical development. In this development, the importance of the executive facet of action is acknowledged by utilising Abelson's schemes for the representation of plans. The paper concludes with a speculative discussion as to how this radically different conceptual and methodological approach might be used in future research on the intention-behaviour relation.     

The Effects of Participation and Resources on Democratic Attitudes: Role of Social Capital in Four Latin and South American Countries

ABSTRACT

Social capital research in Latin and South American countries has been gravely limited by the absence of valid measures of social capital. This study seeks to create a scale for measuring social capital in the Latin and South American context using exploratory and confirmatory statistical procedures. It also seeks to test the effect of social capital on democratic attitudes in Latin America through structural equation modeling methods. Analysis of four countries in Latin and South America suggests that social capital is positively related to democratic attitudes. Recommendations for future studies are highlighted, and scale properties and outcomes are discussed.     

Impacts of child development accounts on parenting practices: evidence from a randomised statewide experiment

ABSTRACT

This study examines the impact of Child Development Accounts (CDAs) on parenting practices of mothers with young children in a statewide randomised experiment conducted in the United States. The experiment included 2704 primary caregivers of children born in Oklahoma during 2007: 1358 were randomly assigned to the treatment group and 1346 to the control group. Structural equation modelling suggests that the punitive-parenting score among treatment participants was .12 standard deviations smaller than that among control participants (p < . 05). Findings indicate that CDAs reduce punitive parenting, and may serve as an additional tool for positive parent–child interactions.     

Adolescent Self-Rejection and Adult Social Action: A Conditional Relationship

Objective . Theoretically informed models of the relationship between stigmatized personal identities and participation in collective social action are tested. Methods . Data from a longitudinal study of participants ( N = 4,169) followed between adolescence and the fourth decade of life are used to estimate structural equation models. Results . The data support hypotheses that perceived rejection during adolescence anticipates participation in social action under conditions when respondents reported during adolescence (1) that many of the kids at school participated in social movements ( p < .10) and (2) that they perceived themselves as having personal control over adverse outcomes ( p < .05), but not under mutually exclusive conditions. In all models, gender, mother's education, and minority status were specified as control variables. Conclusions . Early experiences of rejection and failure dispose people to engage in collective social action if they perceive social support for such action and anticipate that action will be effective.     

Understanding the Relationship Between Egalitarianism and Affective Bias: Avenues to Reducing Prejudice Among Adolescents

In an era during which affirmative action in education is in jeopardy, it is important to understand how the ideologies of high-status ethnic group members maintain (or reduce) social inequality. We examine the extent to which the relationship between egalitarianism and prejudice among European American and Asian American adolescents can be explained by outgroup orientation (i.e., how much one values interacting with members of other ethnic groups) and strength of identification with one's ethnic group. Using structural equation modeling, we tested whether these two variables mediate the relationship between egalitarianism and intergroup prejudice. Results revealed that outgroup orientation was a mediator, but ethnic identity was not. Implications for mutual acculturation theory, prejudice-reduction programs, and affirmative action in education are discussed.     

The effect of tax-benefit policies on fertility and female labor force participation in the United States

This paper presents an investigation of the effects of the tax exemption for dependents and the child care tax credit on age-specific fertility rates and female labor supply for the U.S. 1948–1997. These policies are incorporated in a model that is tested within a cointegration framework for women of two age groups: 20–24 and 25–34 year olds. Tests indicate the existence of two cointegrating relations for each of the two age groups, and these are identified as a fertility equation and a female labor force participation equation, with signs and statistical significance supportive of the economic model. The tax exemption elasticity in the fertility equation for younger women is moderately large, but this policy variable is dominated by effects from changes in women's wages. The 25–34 year olds are less responsive to all economic changes, including the tax exemption, reflecting reduced flexibility in their timing of fertility.     

Testing the impact of gender equality on reproductive health: An analysis of developing countries

This paper proposes a conceptual framework to explore the impact of gender equality on women's reproductive health with economic and political development as background factors. The data for the study are obtained from 136 developing countries. Structural equation analysis is used to test the hypotheses. The proposed model of women's reproductive health is basically supported by the empirical findings from the developing countries. First, the findings underscore the proposition that gender equality has a pivotal role to play in the promotion of women's reproductive health. The second finding points to the importance of economic development in predicating women's reproductive health. Finally, a positive and statistically significant relationship is found between economic development and gender equality. The results reinforce the Cairo Program of Action that women's reproductive health is contingent upon development policies and gender equality in society.     

Minding Your Neighborhood: The Spatial Context of Local Redistribution*

Objectives. Previous research on redistribution by local governments has not accounted for spatial context. I develop a model of local own‐source redistributive spending that accounts for the economic characteristics and policy decisions of geographic neighbors. Methods. I estimate a modified spatial 2SLS equation of own‐source redistributive spending that accounts for endogeneity between neighboring policy decisions and own policy decisions. The data set spans the 48 contiguous states and utilizes data from the 2000 Census and the 1997 Census of Governments, among other sources. Results. I find that the policy choices and economic characteristics of jurisdictional neighbors are significantly related to own‐source housing and community development spending decisions. Jurisdictions reduce their redistributive policies to prevent unwanted movers from entering and produce redistributive packages similar to surrounding jurisdictions. Conclusions. The nuances of geographic context are a critical determinant of local redistributive spending decisions.     

Expectations and the inertia of inflation: The case of Indonesia

It has long been recognised that the balance between backward-looking and forward-looking expectations has critical policy implications. This is because backward-looking expectations impart a substantial degree of inertia to the inflation rate whereas forward-looking expectations lead to rapid adjustment in response to shocks. In this paper we examine the policy implications for the Indonesian economy of the form taken by the price adjustment equation. We allow for both backward-looking and forward-looking effects of inflation expectations, proxying forward expectations with the realised rate and using a GMM estimator to allow for the resulting endogeneity. Using monthly data from 1980:1 to 2008:12, our estimates show that CPI inflation in Indonesia is significantly determined by backward-looking inflation expectations, forward-looking inflation expectations, the output gap, exchange rate depreciation, and money growth. However, the backward expectation attracts a significantly higher weight than the forward rate leading to the conclusion that inflation in Indonesia has considerable inertia. The implication of this is that a gradualist monetary policy is likely to be more effective as a means of smoothing fluctuations in inflation and real output.