政策性负担、预算软约束与杠杆治理：基于中国上市公司的实证研究

本文以预算软约束理论为基础，运用我国上市公司2001—2005年的经验数据，实证分析了企业的外部政策性负担对杠杆治理效应的影响。实证结果表明，债务融资和经理人腐败之间存在协同关系，而对于外部政策性负担重的企业，这种协同关系要大于政策性负担轻的企业，即使控制产权性质的差异，政策性负担对杠杆治理效应的影响也仍然显著。这一结果支持本文的理论假设，即导致我国上市公司杠杆治理失效的预算软约束来源并不单一，除了产权性质外，企业的外部政策性负担也会软化其债务约束，导致杠杆治理失效。     

政策性负担和国有银行激励机制的相关性研究

大量文献集中研究了软预算约束的起源以及政策性负担和银行不良资产.由于政策性负担不仅产生了软预算约束问题,影响委托人的效用函数,而且加深了信息不对称程度,导致经营者追求灰色收入.在委托代理理论的框架下,将经营者的努力分为经营性和非经营性努力,在Holmstrom-Milgrom多项工作模型基础上,建立多期激励模型分析政策性负担与银行激励机制的相关性,结果发现政策性负担降低了银行经营者的经营努力,扭曲了银行的激励,机制.     

国有企业软预算约束对资本结构的影响研究

软预算约束问题一直是中国国有企业面临的基本问题,资本结构也对企业决策有重要影响。本文用2000～2016年的上市国有企业数据考察了软预算约束对国有企业资本结构的影响情况。研究发现,作为软预算约束代理变量的过度投资与企业不同期限的杠杆率存在显著的正相关关系,软预算约束的存在会提高企业的杠杆水平。     

软预算约束、银行危机与金融监管

本文利用不完全信息动态博弈模型,探讨了金融危机、监管者的软预算约束与银行道德风险之间的关系.研究发现:金融危机愈高,监管者的软预算约束愈大,因此,消除软预算约束是降低金融危机最重要的监管措施;建设性模糊策略能够有效消除金融机构对软预算约束的预期心理;随着银行的道德风险上升,金融危机也会升高.     

企业软预算约束的成因综述

"软预算约束"是指政府不能承诺不去解救亏损的国有企业,解救措施包括财政补贴、贷款支持等等.经验表明,软预算约束现象出现在任何经济制度中,尤其是在社会主义和后社会主义转型中更频繁、更广泛地出现.     

硬预算约束假定及主流宏观经济学于转轨经济之局限性

宏观经济学之古典和凯恩斯两大传统,根本分野不在于别的方面,而在于市场能否连续出清假定上。无论是新古典模型的市场连续出清假定,还是凯恩斯主义的市场不能连续出清假定,都隐含行为主体对于价格敏感,即硬预算约束的假定。硬预算约束下价格变量和数量变量相互依赖、互为决定,但软预算约束下价格变量与数量变量之间的联系就断裂了;软预算约束下行为主体对于数量变量敏感,对于价格变量则不敏感。因此软预算约束下各种冲击的传导机制和冲击效应就会不同于硬预算约束下的情况,财政政策、货币政策的传导机制和政策效应也会不同于硬预算约束下的情况。由于转轨经济普遍存在软预算约束,因此以主流宏观经济理论来解释转轨经济的宏观经济现象、指导转轨经济的宏观调控,难免出偏差。     

预算软约束成因分析

预算软约束是科尔奈在分析社会主义企业行为时首先提出的概念,该文认为预算软约束产生的根本原因是民主异化与所有制异化的共同作用,对非职工所有者分配到的利润没有影响的预算软约束不是真正的预算软约束。     

以适度柔性实现政府预算刚性

预算软约束导致财政资金使用的浪费、不规范,制约政府治理水平和公共服务水平的提升。政府预算要以坚持预算刚性为主,同时不断规范政府预算的柔性管理,从而不断提高预算刚性。     

渐进预算与机会主义——转移支付分配模式的实证研究

我国转移支付分配呈现何种模式?本文通过纳入预算软约束代理(工具)变量的协整模型研究了转移支付分配的渐进预算观点和机会主义影响。实证结果表明:(1)目前我国转移支付分配总体表现为基数加上与地方财政收支挂钩的边际性增长的渐进预算模式;(2)政府间转移支付对地方自主筹资产生负面激励和支出扩张效应;(3)相比较于筹资负面激励,转移支付预算软约束的支出扩张所受到的限制更少;(4)机会主义影响尚无法取代渐进预算进程,但是,转移支付造成的约束软化作为一个显著短期扰动构成了渐进式分配的增量要素。在突破现阶段政策均衡和间断性平衡的改革中,应重视政策与预算决策机制的调整以及针对转移支付预算软约束问题的机制设计。     

商业银行软预算约束与中国银行业改革

软预算约束使得中国的商业银行能够在不良资产率如此之高的情况下维持运行,然而软预算约束的负面影响也是不可忽视的,会对公平竞争造成破坏,无论是对商业银行还是对政府而言都有着很大的破坏。因此中国银行业要积极进行改革,强化对中国商业银行的预算约束。     

Implementing the Balanced Scorecard in Greece: A Software Firm’s Experience

The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) is a relatively new approach to strategic management and performance measurement and control, which has generated substantial interest in the academic and industrial communities. This paper presents the experience from the implementation of a specific BSC model at a large software development company in Greece. The study illustrates and evaluates the main obstacles and shortcomings, as well as the critical success factors that characterise such BSC projects, while offering managerial insights and guidelines for similar implementations.     

Discussing feedback system thinking in relation to scenario evaluation in a balanced scorecard setup

Since the emergence of the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) at the beginning of the 1990s, literature has intensively discussed the problems of the cause-and-effect relationships, the time-delay elements between measures and perspectives and the concepts of feedback loops. This article focuses on the use of the System Dynamics Modelling approach to deal with these three problems, an approach first suggested by Forrester back in 1958. The wide scope of application of BSC as a decision-supporting instrument continues to spur the interest in BSC. We have used an actual case as inspiration on which our model construction and our simulation scenarios are based. Our findings suggest that the idea of linking BSC and System Dynamics together based on properties of the systems dynamic nature seem to be both a natural and a relevant development. Furthermore, our simulations demonstrate the ability to: (1) provide a scheme for the translation of the strategy into operational terms and at the same time (2) offer possibilities for the decision maker to be able to evaluate the plan–do–review results based on the feedbacks, specifically in a risk evaluating context.     

中国积极劳动政策的实践

本文根据对北京、上海和苏州三个试点城市及其他10余个城市实施积极劳动政策的调查及国际比较 ,初步评估了中国实施积极劳动政策尤其是针对国有企业下岗职工的创业扶持政策的成效得失。文章认为 ,中国在特殊背景下实施积极劳动政策的是必要的 ,效果也是比较显著的 ,但随着劳动就业形势的变化 ,对积极劳动政策的实施效果有必要进行认真的评估 ,并在此基础上进行适当的调整     

Performance Effects of Using the Balanced Scorecard: A Note on the Dutch Experience

This article aims to contribute to understanding how to use the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) effectively. The BSC lends itself to various interpretations. This article explores how the way in which the BSC is used affects performance. Empirical evidence from Dutch firms suggests BSC use will not automatically improve company performance, but that the manner of its use matters: BSC use that complements corporate strategy positively influences company performance, while BSC use that is not related to the strategy may decrease it. We discuss the findings and offer managers guidance for optimal use of the BSC.     

Stochastic Algorithms,Symmetric Markov Perfect Equilibrium,and the ‘curse’ of Dimensionality

This paper introduces a stochastic algorithm for computing symmetric Markov perfect equilibria. The algorithm computes equilibrium policy and value functions, and generates a transition kernel for the (stochastic) evolution of the state of the system. It has two features that together imply that it need not be subject to the curse of dimensionality. First, the integral that determines continuation values is never calculated; rather it is approximated by a simple average of returns from past outcomes of the algorithm, an approximation whose computational burden is not tied to the dimension of the state space. Second, iterations of the algorithm update value and policy functions at a single (rather than at all possible) points in the state space. Random draws from a distribution set by the updated policies determine the location of the next iteration's updates. This selection only repeatedly hits the recurrent class of points, a subset whose cardinality is not directly tied to that of the state space. Numerical results for industrial organization problems show that our algorithm can increase speed and decrease memory requirements by several orders of magnitude.     

基于证据推理的平衡计分卡及其在绩效评估中的应用

运用传统平衡计分卡进行绩效评估时,难以处理各种不确定评价。基于此,文章提出了基于证据推理的平衡计分卡框架,构建了一个具有多种评价集的多级分布式评价模型,依据基于规则的转换技术实现不同识别框架下评价的统一,运用解析算法对多级评价指标上的不确定评价进行有效合成,根据合成结果制定效用准则或最大等级准则进行绩效评估。将基于证据推理的平衡计分卡体系应用于江航公司敏感元件事业部的绩效评估,体现研究的有效性与合理性。     

Integrating the Data Envelopment Analysis and the Balanced Scorecard approaches for enhanced performance assessment

This article presents the development of a conceptual framework which aims to assess Decision Making Units (DMUs) from multiple perspectives. The proposed conceptual framework combines the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) method with the non-parametric technique known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) by using various interconnected models which try to encapsulate four perspectives of performance (financial, customers, internal processes, learning and growth).The practical relevance of the conceptual model has been tested by using it to assess the performance of DMUs in a multinational company which operates in two business areas. Various models were developed with the collaboration of the directors of the company in order to conceive an appropriate and consensual framework, which may provide useful information for the company. The application of the conceptual framework provides structured information regarding the performance of each DMU (from multiple perspectives) and ways to improve it. By integrating the BSC and the DEA approaches this research helps to identify where there is room for improving organisational performance and points out opportunities for reciprocal learning between DMUs. In doing so, this article provides a set of recommendations relating to the successful application of DEA and its integration with the BSC, in order to promote a continuous learning process and to bring about improvements in performance.     

积极财政政策:评价与展望

一、引言为应对亚洲金融危机和扩大内需 ,中国政府从１９９８年开始实行积极的财政政策。其主要特征是增加赤字 ,增发国债 ,扩大公共投资。１９９８～２００１年分别发行１０００亿元、１１００亿元、１５００亿元和１５００亿元 ,共计５１００亿元长期建设国债 ,用于基础设施建设和技术改造贴息 (见表１)。虽然最初声称它只是特殊条件下采取的一种短期政策 ,但２００２年决定继续实施 ,这样积极财政政策实行已有５年 ,事实上成为一种中期政策 ,短期政策出现中长期化倾向。对此 ,国内外有两类代表性的观点：一种是主张继续执行积极的财政政…     

An inventory control policy for liquefied natural gas as a transportation fuel

In this paper, we study a novel stochastic inventory management problem that arises in storage and refueling facilities for Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) as a transportation fuel. In this inventory problem, the physio-chemical properties of LNG play a key role in the design of inventory policies. These properties are: (1) LNG suffers from both quantity decay and quality deterioration and (2) the quality of on-hand LNG can be upgraded by mixing it with higher-quality LNG. Given that LNG quality can be upgraded, an inventory control policy for this problem needs to consider the removal of LNG as a decision variable. We model and solve the problem by means of a Markov Decision Process (MDP) and study the structural characteristics of the optimal policy. The insights obtained in the analysis of the optimal policy are translated into a simple, though effective, inventory control policy in which actions (i.e., replenishment and/or removal) are driven by both the quality and the quantity of the inventories. We assess the performance of our policy by means of a numerical study and show that it performs close to optimal in many numerical instances. The main conclusion of our study is that it is important to take quality into consideration when design inventory control policies for LNG, and that the most effective way to cope with quality issues in an LNG inventory system involves both the removal and the replenishment of inventories.     

风险条件下研发项目改进DEA选择模型

研发项目是企业提高竞争力的关键,研发项目选择关系到企业的战略和未来发展趋势。研发项目在生命周期内面临技术风险、突发风险和市场风险,本文考虑到研发项目的风险特征,结合企业战略,构建了基于效率排序的研发项目选择模型。首先,本文对研发项目的有效性和相对于其它备选项目的相对优势进行分析;然后针对数据包络分析模型排序的不足,结合平衡计分卡理念,规范研发项目投入的比例,引入实物期权理论,改进数据包络分析模型,实现了对研发项目的效率排序;最后通过实际算例对模型进行验证、横向对比和敏感性分析,结果表明：相对于标准数据包络分析模型,本文提出的模型具有更高的效率区分度,并且能够敏感地捕捉到研发项目投入和产出的变化对效率影响的演变过程。