世界人口状况

目前世界人口，年增长率1．33％。尽管人口增长率在下降，但世界每年净增人口7800万左右。世界妇女平均生育2．8个孩子。其中，发达国家1．6个孩子，发展中国家3．1个孩子，最欠发达国家5．3个孩子。世界人口平均出生预期寿命为64岁至66岁。其中，发达国家为74．5岁，发展中国家63．6岁，欠发达国家52岁。     

世界人口最新状况与未来发展

本文根据联合国公布的有关世界人口资料,详细介绍了世界人口的最新状况和未来发展趋势,包括世界人口的总量、分布、密度和城市化水平。以及不同的国家和地区在城市化水平、生活质量、生育水平和年龄构成等方面的特征和未来趋势。     

印度人口发展状况与人口政策

基于印度人口发展的历史资料与最新统计数据,从规模、结构和空间分布三个维度剖析印度人口状况,指出人口总量持续增长但增速减缓、年龄结构变化平稳但性别比失衡、人口总体密集但区域差异较大、不受限制的人口流动加重了市政管理负担是当前印度人口发展的特点。对此,印度政府曾采取不少措施但收效甚微。研究发现,基于中印两国国情有很多共同之处,印度在经济发展中出现的人口问题以及所采取的人口政策对中国有所警示和启示。     

印度人口发展状况与人口政策

基于印度人口发展的历史资料与最新统计数据,从规模、结构和空间分布三个维度剖析印度人口状况,指出人口总量持续增长但增速减缓、年龄结构变化平稳但性别比失衡、人口总体密集但区域差异较大、不受限制的人口流动加重了市政管理负担是当前印度人口发展的特点。对此,印度政府曾采取不少措施但收效甚微。研究发现,基于中印两国国情有很多共同之处,印度在经济发展中出现的人口问题以及所采取的人口政策对中国有所警示和启示。     

1998年甘肃人口发展状况分析

本文运用具体的数据分析了１９９８ 年甘肃省人口各方面的变化状况     

中国人口均衡发展的状况与分析

人口均衡的概念 均衡的本意就是平衡,指对立的各方面在数量或质量上的相等或相抵。应用在人口发展方面,它至少包括下面两层含义：第一,人口作为一个整体,应该与外部各方面因素的力量相平衡。     

经济增长与人口发展因素相关性研究——基于人口发展方程的构造

本文从人口经济活动、人口总量、人口结构、人口素质和人口再生产等方面,通过构建人口发展方程,分析了人口发展与经济增长之间的关系．研究结论表明我国的经济增长与人口发展之间从长期看具有稳定的互动关系,短期内两者之间存在动态均衡机制。在国家人口发展战略提出坚持以人为本,推进体制创新,实现人口大国向人力资本强国的转变等要求下,当前平衡出生人口性别比,进一步控制人口自然增长率,提升人力资本价值,具有重要的现实意义。     

2011年世界人口与计划生育状况

今年,联合国经济和社会事务部人口司公布了2011年世界人口展望报告、世界生育率政策以及国际人口迁移的技术报告。三份报告对世界人口的发展趋势、国际人口迁移、计划生育和各国的生育率政策进行了预测、分析、展望并提出相关建议。本文对报告进行了摘编,将相关观点收录如下。世界人口展望报告     

亚太地区人口状况及发展趋势

一、人口增长亚太地区目前人口超过40亿人,占世界总人口的60%。自1990年以来这一比重保持不变,但人口绝对数增加了7.6亿人,几乎是目前北美人口的两倍。世界人口排前10位的国家,亚洲就有7个。中国和印度是世界两个人口最多的国家,分别为13亿人和11亿人,亚太地区有半数人口居住在这两个国     

联合国人口基金发布《2012年度世界人口状况报告》

联合国人口基金发布了主题为“自主选择,不靠运气：计划生育、人权与发展”的《2012年度世界人口状况报告》,并表示,获得计划生育是一项人权,在发展中国家年轻人数量达到历史最高水平的时候普及计划生育是明智的经济投资。     

Completing the fertility transition in the developing world: The role of educational differences and fertility preferences

This study summarizes patterns of educational differentials in wanted and unwanted fertility at different stages of the fertility transition. The data are from Demographic and Health Surveys in 57 less developed countries. As the transition proceeds, educational differentials in wanted fertility tend to decline and differentials in unwanted fertility tend to rise. An assessment of fertility patterns in developed and less developed countries with low fertility concludes that these differentials are likely to remain substantial when less developed countries reach the end of their transitions. This conclusion implies that the educational composition of the population remains a key predictor of overall fertility in late transitional countries and that low levels of schooling can be a cause of stalling fertility.     

需进一步控制我国人口增长的实证分析

谈进一步控制我国人口增长是缘于“五普”人口数据不准,算全面建设小康社会人口大账的考虑,以及用生产力标准衡量的结果。文章研究认为,进一步控制我国人口增长所牵涉的问题可以通过观念更新、措施更新解决。     

四川省人口区域分布与区域经济发展

四川省人口区域分布与中国人口分布有极相似之处:东密西疏。这种不平衡的分布有它的规律性,必然性,靠单方面的人为的力量改变这种分布不均是困难的。这种人口的分布影响到了区域经济的发展。认识到这种人口分布的客观性和规律性,才能正确引导川西经济的可持续发展。     

The political economy of population economics

The relationship between political economy and population economics involves many important issues such as the roles of voters, interest groups, families, and social policy. In this short note, we discuss the new and intriguing issues raised by current research at the intersection of these two subjects.     

Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the developing world: The role of education

Girls’ school participation has expanded considerably in the developing world over the last few decades, a phenomenon expected to have substantial consequences for reproductive behaviour. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from 43 countries, this paper examines trends and differentials in the mean ages at three critical life-cycle events for young women: first sexual intercourse, first marriage, and first birth. We measure the extent to which trends in the timing of these events are driven either by the changing educational composition of populations or by changes in behaviour within education groups. Mean ages have risen over time in all regions for all three events, except age at first sex in Latin America and the Caribbean. Results from a decomposition exercise indicate that increases in educational attainment, rather than trends within education groups, are primarily responsible for the overall trends. Possible explanations for these findings are discussed.     

中国人口发展地理波分析

人口地理波分析表明,中国有5大人口地理波波及区,4组人口地理波先发展地,2个人口地理波向西部传播的中转地。"两纵"、"两横"四大人口地理波传播扩散基本通道。各地人口发展空间上有差别,时间上有先后,有工作因素,更有时空差异客观规律的作用。应尊重发展的时空差异,在不同的人口地理波波及区和同一人口地理波波及区的先发展地区和边缘地区,创造不同的发展模式,采取不同的工作方式,提出不同的工作目标和发展时间表。全国统一但有区别的人口政策和工作模式的不断创造和完善,应是全国人口工作的重要内容。     

Baby booms,busts, and population ageing in the developed world

The key challenge facing contemporary society is a process of population ageing rooted mainly in past fertility cycles. The goals of the study reported in this paper were (i) to analyse jointly the post-1930s baby boom and the baby bust that followed, (ii) to consider the specific ways this particular combination influenced the process of ageing in different societies, and (iii) to evaluate some possible implications for policy of different historical experiences. Demographic time series for 27 nations in the developed world were used. The main results confirm the importance of the boom and bust fertility cycle of the second half of the twentieth century for population ageing. Some countries will experience ageing processes driven mainly by the growth of elderly populations while others will age largely as a result of declines in working-age populations. These differences underscore the need to tailor policy priorities for specific patterns of ageing.     

What we can and cannot learn from the history of world population

Mankind is passing through an exceptional phase of accelerated population growth that generates anxiety about the future. How many billion people will share the limited resources of our globe a century from now? What will be the consequences of globalization for human behaviour? How will individuals react to emerging new constraints? What will be the consequences of climate change for human society? Obviously enough, history cannot offer operational answers to these crucial questions. Nevertheless, history offers some interesting insights into demographic behaviour experienced in the past that could be replicated in the future, with the variations and adaptations dictated by the changing contexts. In other words, there are constants and structures in human behaviour, and there are robust mechanisms in the functioning of demographic systems that are of some help in preparing us to deal with the future.     

坚持“三个代表”思想 创造适宜人口环境 促进经济实现跨越式发展

贯彻落实江泽民同志“三个代表”思想 ,对于全面实现 2 1世纪计划生育工作的目标和任务 ,对于创造有利于经济实现跨越式发展的人口环境具有重大意义     

贵州省环境人口容量现状及提高路径分析

本文使用“P—E—R”环境人口容量模型,利用1952-2002年的相关统计数据,从经济承载力和资源承载力两个角度,对贵州省环境的经济人口容量和资源人口容量进行了动态分析和综合描述。从可持续发展角度出发,针对贵州省环境人口容量的现状和问题,提出了提高环境人口容量的对策。