美欧债务危机应对路径的国际比较研究

美欧发达国家政府的债务危机问题已越来越严重,逐渐引起了包括发展中国家在内的世界各国的广泛关注。面对此次危机,美欧各国都相继采取了各种财政、货币政策措施加以应对,由于各国国情各异,采取的措施和取得的效果也不同。通过分析美欧国家债务危机产生的原因,列举美欧应对危机采取的措施,并对其进行分析比较,得出了主权债务危机给中国发展的几点启示。     

防范中国公共债务风险研究

欧洲主权债务危机爆发以来,已经或正在对中国经济产生一系列负面影响,同时引发公众对中国公共债务风险的忧虑.中国公共债务状况与欧债危机发生国的情况存在本质区别,在短期内并没有引爆债务危机的可能,但从长期来看,中国公共债务危机隐患不可小觑.中国应以欧债危机为前车之鉴,在调整经济结构、平衡收入分配、完善社会保障体制等方面汲取欧债危机发生国的经验和教训,未雨绸缪地防范中国公共债务风险.     

论经济安全运行与政策取向:基于欧债危机的视角

欧债危机表面上是人口老龄化和高福利政策导致的政府债务负担问题,实质上是美欧两大经济体核心利益冲突的必然结果,是部分欧洲国家在经济增长方式选择、经济可持续发展与社会福利政策的关系协调方面产生了严重的问题。虽然次贷危机是欧债危机的主要外因,但区域经济发展不平衡、产业结构不合理、欧元区统一的货币政策与分散的财政政策的矛盾、老龄化趋势导致高福利政策难以持续、缺乏有效的监管是导致和加剧欧债危机的内在因素。欧债危机对我国加强经济安全运行有诸多启示:要审慎、协调使用宏观调控政策,合理把握经济刺激政策的力度;应加强地方政府债务的管理,通过多种手段防范地方政府债务风险;要通过发展实体经济,夯实经济增长的基础;通过产业结构调整,实现经济增长方式转变;富民是保持社会稳定的基础,加快福利制度建设和增加社会福利支出要把握合理的尺度,应充分借助市场和社会力量构建多重社会保障体系。     

重拾“第三条道路”?——金融危机后美欧的政治思潮与经济选择

美欧危机病根不同,表现形式也不一样。美国危机的病根是极其野蛮的新自由主义模式,表现形式是金融危机+经济衰退;欧洲危机的病根是社会民主主义+社会市场经济模式,表现形式是主权债务危机+经济衰退。金融危机爆发后,奥巴马政府治理危机的措施是试图将美国的新自由主义这种极右、极野蛮的社会经济模式向左作一些调整;而欧盟及欧洲央行的反危机措施,明显地呈现出左右出击、两面作战的特点,既抵制右的新自由主义金融模式的金融自由化,又试图抛弃传统社会民主主义中的亲近劳动者的某些价值理念,将欧洲向极右的新自由主义模式靠拢。也就是说,危机中的美欧试图回归20世纪90年代由克林顿、布莱尔和施罗德等人提出的既超越"左"、又超越右的"第三条道路"。但已经夭折的"第三条道路"不可能拯救危机中的美欧。     

美欧债务危机后中国经济安全面临的主要问题

美欧债务危机爆发以来,我国经济安全问题受到广泛而持续的关注。当前我国经济安全领域面临的主要问题是:贸易保护主义与我国产业和贸易安全;人民币过快、过度升值;资本账户开放过早、过快,我国金融市场过度依赖国际信用评级机构等所带来金融安全问题;战略性资源安全;经济信息安全问题。如何认识和合理规避这些风险,建立我国国家经济安全运行的机制,增强我国经济抵御外来风险的能力,保持稳定健康持续的发展,成为当前一项重要的课题。     

美欧对华“去风险”战略及其对中国的影响

自欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩提出对华“去风险”概念以来,美欧在该概念措辞上逐步趋于一致,并开始在全球范围内利用其主导的国际机制,联手推进“趋同存异”的对华“去风险”进程。美欧意图联合盟友和伙伴,拉拢目标发展中国家,在关键产品供应链、“经济胁迫”和“非市场政策”、出口管制和投资审查、新兴技术标准制定、关键基础设施建设等问题上,进一步朝着具体化、机制化、趋同化的方向发展。同时,美欧虽然均采用“去风险”的对华政策表述,在战略意图、实施路径等方面存在趋同之处,但仍在战略目标、优先区域等方面有所区别。美欧对华“去风险”战略给中国经济、科技、外交层面带来一定压力,但其战略目标能否完全实现,不仅取决于美欧之间政策的趋同水平,还取决于美欧正致力于推进的新规范在全球层面的接受度,仍然存在相当大的不确定性。     

从“重债穷国倡议”到“缓债倡议”：主权债务救助的影响与反思

主权债务救助是国际社会应对发展中国家债务危机和发展危机的重要方式，历史和现实经验表明，主权债务救助的作用往往是短期的，其无法从根源上解决债务问题，也无法预防和避免新的债务危机。这根源于主权债务救助的三个结构性难题：主权债务合作中的集体行动难题；主权债务救助目标议程的分散化；发展中国家在世界经济金融体系中的脆弱性。虽然集体行动难题一直是主权债务救助努力克服的核心问题，但债权人的多元化使这一问题更加复杂。主权债务救助目标议程的分散化，尤其是债务救助的政治化则导致债务救助偏离了实际，往往带来更大的负面影响。很多发展中国家抵御外部冲击的能力是非常有限和脆弱的，其是由发展中国家在世界经济金融体系中的位置以及国家治理能力的结构性挑战决定的。由此，主权债务救助必须以缓解这些结构性难题为导向，根据现实变化，反思和重塑债务救助的理念和方式，最大程度降低债务救助的附带影响，必须标本兼治，从系统、综合和发展的视角塑造和践行新时期的主权债务救助。     

经贸纷争与合作:美欧关系中的一个重要特征

美欧之间的经贸纷争与合作是美欧关系中的一个重要特征,这种特征一直贯穿于战后美欧关系的发展中。"二战"结束后,美国通过一系列的援助政策帮助欧洲恢复社会秩序、推动经济复苏,同时也成功地通过援助附带的经济要求打开了欧洲市场,并且在国际货币和金融领域成为制度的设计者和主导者。随着欧洲实力的恢复,特别是欧洲开始实施一体化战略以来,美欧在经济和贸易领域的摩擦日渐增多。后金融危机时代,国际经济发展趋势为美欧双方在经济合作方面提供了新的契机,合作仍然成为美欧关系在经贸领域的主旋律。     

当前世界经济形势对中国的影响

一、全球金融危机对中国的影响自2008年开始的由美国次贷危机引起的全球金融危机,是自上世纪30年代以来世界上最严重的一次危机。这次危机的发展是从次贷危机发展到债务危机,再发展到流动性危机,然后发展到信用危机。从范围上讲是从美国向世界各国扩散,从虚拟经济领域向实体经济领域蔓延,造成了一次严重的全球性的经济危机。     

论美债危机的实质及其应对方法

此次美债危机是2008年爆发的国际金融危机的延续,根源于资本主义基本矛盾,具体讲,是根源于20世纪90年代初世界社会主义运动步入低潮、美国实施一系列新自由主义经济政策所导致的收入差距重新扩大.应对美债危机,必须依据马克思主义经济理论,看清“普世价值论”和“补课论”的真面目,坚持和完善中国特色社会主义基本经济制度,加快转变经济发展方式.     

An Analysis of the Determinants of the Changes in China＇s Foreign Exchange Reserves＇ Nominal and Real Rates of Return

采用分解和回归方法,考察2002-2009年间中国外汇储备名义收益率与真实收益率变动的原因,可以发现：美国金融市场风险溢价是影响中国外汇储备名义收益率变动的最重要因素,美元汇率和大宗商品价格是影响中国外汇储备真实收益率的最重要因素。基于实证的研究还可以推断：美联储宽松货币政策会提高中国外汇储备名义收益率,但降低了真实收益率;欧洲债务危机对中国外汇储备名义收益率的影响不确定,但很可能提高了真实收益率。     

An Analysis of the Determinants of the Changes in China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves’ Nominal and Real Rates of Return

We use decomposition and regression to examine the reasons for the changes in nominal and real rates of return of China’s foreign exchange reserves between 2002 and 2009. The results show that the US financial market risk premium is the most important determinant of changes in the nominal rate of return, while the US dollar exchange rate and the bulk commodity price are the two key determinants of changes in the real rate of return. From empirically based research, one may conclude that the loose monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve increases China’s foreign exchange reserves’ nominal rate of return but decreases the real rate of return and that the European debt crisis has an uncertain impact on China’s foreign exchange reserves’ nominal rate of return but may well raise the real rate of return.     

Youth‐oriented active labour market policies and economic crisis: Explaining policy effort in Greece and Portugal

The starting point of this study is the implementation of seemingly similar youth‐oriented labour market policies in Greece and Portugal. Both countries have suffered high youth unemployment rates and have been pressured to restructure their labour market as part of the rescue programmes adopted during the European sovereign debt crisis. Despite convergence in terms of policy trajectories, there is a significant divergence in employment outcomes. In Portugal, youth‐oriented policies were better‐targeted and structured. Their implementation has been more effective and has involved the social partners from the outset of the crisis. In Greece, policy design failures, administrative weaknesses and unfavourable macroeconomic conditions have limited the dynamics of youth‐oriented policies thus increasing youth insecurity. Τhe analysis suggests that convergence in policy content can be compatible with divergence in terms of outcomes.     

Impact of Social Service Expenditures on the Suicide Rate: The Cases of Asia Countries

An empirical study reported that the economic crisis in European countries affected their suicide rates and described that an increase in social services expenditures of US$10 per person in labor market programs impacted the decrease in unemployment suicides by 0.038%. However, there has no study that the economic crisis in Asia countries affected their suicide rates. Since 2008, South Korea has been ranked first for suicide rate in the OECD countries. Many studies have blamed the economic crisis that followed from the US financial crisis in 2007 as the critical cause. However, in the case of Japan, the suicide rate decreased in the same time period (2008–2011) even though they faced the same financial crisis. The purpose of this study was to examine why the different situations in Korea and Japan occurred with the economic crisis through testing whether the government’s social service expenditure affects the people’s suicide rate in Asia countries. These efforts will contribute to understanding the critical role of social service.     

Latin America and the crisis (points for the balance of a decade)

The decade of the 1980s was catastrophic for the countries of Latin America because of profound transformations in the world economy, which started in the 1970s, the wilting of the state development programs that were imposed after World War II, and the collapse of socialism with the incipient transition to market economies. The crisis started because of the erosion of the world economic system as constituted under the Bretton Woods agreement; the drastic drop in the economic growth of market economies; the increased costs of living and the deterioration of the environment; the decrease in industrial capacity; and the emergence of transnationalization of production. In Latin America, the economic models that had been in place without solving underdevelopment became even more obsolete (import substitution, internal trade, and the role of the state). The crisis of socialism and the rapprochement of eastern European countries to western Europe also affected Latin America (e.g., Germany cancelled 30 mine exploration projects in Bolivia due to investments in East Germany). The structural readjustment policies of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank resulted in currency devaluations, redistribution of government funds, elimination of various subsidies, reduction of public debt and social expenditures, reduction of public employment, and payment of external debt. The result was more inflation (in Bolivia, Brazil, Peru, and Argentina, inflation rates were 683.7%, 157.1%, 100.1%, and 326.2%, respectively, between 1980 and 1986), unemployment, and poverty in the lost decade of the 1980s. After 1982, state expenditures on roads, education, hospitals, and nutrition declined by 40% in Mexico. Even though most countries returned to democracy in the region, this was at the cost of the increased role of the military and the transnationals. The grand parties collapsed and in Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia authoritarian tendencies survived into the 1970s degrading democracy. The states' socioeconomic regulatory role has to be redefined.     

2011年国内学者对当代资本主义经济的不同认识

美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机、欧洲主权债务危机等接连爆发,全球经济依旧低迷。关于当代资本主义经济,近期国内有较多研究成果,但学者们观点各不相同。主权债务危机的发生原因及影响、资本主义经济全球化的发展趋向、当代发达资本主义国家中阶级界限是否模糊、一系列危机是否表明资本主义制度正在走向衰亡,这些是目前讨论的热点。     

Threats,chances and opportunities: social capital in Europe in times of social and economic hardship

The 2008 financial and economic crisis, characterized by an economic breakdown unparalleled since the Great Depression, provides a unique opportunity to study the relationships between economic developments and social capital by asking: How does social capital change in times of social and economic hardship? In order to explore the trends of social capital development, data from the European Social Survey 2002–2016 are used. The results suggest that economic decline – particularly increasing unemployment – is associated with a decline in social capital, especially in southern European countries. Furthermore, increasing long-term interest rates as an indicator of government future debt sustainability appear to be detrimental for social capital development. The impact of economic decline, however, appears to be contingent upon the functioning of state institutions: especially in countries characterized by well-functioning governments social capital is significantly less affected by economic decline than other countries.     

国债二级市场功能及发展策略研究

风险和成本最小化及宏观经济调控是国债管理的主要目标。文章论述了国债二级市场在现实国债管理目标中所起的作用,指出促进国债二级市场流动性是实现国债管理目标的关键。并且,文章分析了我国国债二级市场在流动性方面存在的问题,提出了以加强流动性管理为目标的促进我国国债二级市场发展的策略建议。