基于信任机理的信息共享式供应链系统模型

合作伙伴间信任关系的博弈分析说明长期合作带来的收益会诱使双方继续合作,从而建立相互信任的关系。信任、合作与信息共享之间是相互促进的作用,基于信任机理的信息共享型供应链管理模型,解决了合作各成员间信息不对称的问题,同时供应链信任关系的长久性需要合理的利益分配机制与具有法律效应的合同约束机制来保证。     

基于Agent的预测支持系统的设计

agent是在一定环境下能独立自主运行的实体,它具有自己的知识、目标和能力．多agent系统(Multi—Agent System)中的agent都服务于同一个目标,各个agent相互磋商与合作．以提高完成任务的效率和解决问题的能力．表文提出利用多agent系统设计预测支持系统,是将每一种定性或定量的预测方法都设计成一个预测agent,各个预测agent都有预测求解方法、知识处理及同其它agent通讯合作的能力．随着系统的运行,各个agent不断地学习以提高自己的能力从而提高整体系统预测准确性。     

基于多Agent的供应链合作伙伴选择研究

为提高合作伙伴选择的效率和质量,将具有自治性的Agent应用于供应链的合作伙伴选择,提出了基于多Agent的合作伙伴选择系统的框架.该框架确定了多Agent合作伙伴选择过程,采用了基于规范的合同网协议作为协商协议,并确定了多Agent之间的交互作用方式.提出了基于效用函数的多Agent协商目标和Agent的决策模型.协商过程采用多轮协商模式,并采用了基于遗传算法的反报价.该方法能有效缩短供应链合作伙伴选择协商时间并能获取有效协商.     

合作伙伴关系中合作程度对其收益的影响研究

本文研究合作伙伴关系中合作程度对其收益的影响问题.文中首先基于企业之间的信任与合作可以和机会主义行为并存的假设,利用交易成本经济学的分析方法说明合作收益产生的原因.然后,将企业的资源和合作收益进行分类,建立了各种资源与各种收益之间的关系.接着,用对合作的投入代表合作的程度,建立了两层动态博弈模型,分析了企业在各阶段的投入对其收益的影响,并研究了三种情况下企业要使其收益最大化应当选择的投入水平.     

公司治理机制中的信任关系及其对创新影响的模拟研究

采用基于agent建模与模拟的方法,研究了公司治理机制中的信任关系及其对创新的影响;探索了董事会、CEO、研发中心之间非线性交互作用"涌现"的复杂行为。研究发现,基于是否信任的代理理论和管家理论对创新有重大影响:代理理论以不信任为主、强调控制,导致经理近视的行为,从而侧重渐进性创新;管家理论以信任为主、强调合作,经理往往从战略角度出发,进而侧重突变性创新。充分考虑信任对创新的影响,有效设计控制与合作兼顾的公司治理机制可以更好促进企业的创新。     

高技术虚拟产业集群社会网络信任模式研究

从社会网络理论视角出发,分析高技术虚拟产业集群社会网络信任特征,构建影响关系的三维结构模型,并以直接信任度、间接信任度及信任感知风险度3个维度为核心搭建总体运行框架。在此基础上,构建社会网络动态信任评估模型,综合考虑时间衰减、失信惩罚、推荐可信及风险感知等要素,从多角度全面准确地刻画动态性、复杂性及不确定性。采用Ma-pleSim仿真平台进行模拟仿真结果表明,该信任模式可以约束并遏制恶意失信行为的发生,对潜在合作伙伴选择、提高合作成功率具有较好的效果。     

关系情境、供应商承诺与合作效应的实证研究

基于249家供应商的样本数据,运用结构方程模型对供应链双方的关系情境、供应商承诺与合作效应之间的关系进行实证研究,发现供应商承诺意愿促进其承诺行动,关系情境中的环境动态性、供应商信任和供应商依赖等因素对供应商承诺意愿及承诺行动分别有不同的影响,供应商承诺意愿和承诺行动可以促进双方合作程度和供应商运营获益,双方合作程度的加深能增大供应商运营获益.     

基于链接分析的虚拟企业合作伙伴竞争力模型

动态多变的市场环境,对虚拟企业的伙伴选择方法提出了新的挑战.基于传统评价指标的定性或定量方法,很难适应现代市场节奏.链接分析法是网络信息计量学中一个重要方法.本文将链接分析法用于虚拟企业的合作伙伴选择中,通过分析虚拟企业合作伙伴网站链接数量特征及空间意义,用虚拟网络结构来映射真实的虚拟企业合作网络,进而构建简便有效的虚拟企业合作伙伴竞争力模型.     

供应链信任传递机制及其均衡研究

良好的信任关系有助于减少企业间的谈判和摩擦次数,提升供应链成员企业间的合作效率,降低多项成本费用,从而增强供应链的灵活性,并实现供应链竞争力的提升.基于此方面的考虑,以供应链信任关系为研究对象,探讨供应链信任关系在供应链网络中传递并逐渐达到均衡的过程.沿用信任度的概念对供应链成员企业间的信任关系进行定量刻画,通过对取值的拓展,使刻画更贴近现实;基于社会网络理论分析并设计不同信任氛围下信任的传递机制和叠加机制,利用网络均衡理论和极限的思想建立信任均衡模型,对供应链信任均衡进行求解,并对解的稳定性进行分析.研究结果表明,供应链信任的均衡结果与信任氛围和初始的信任状态密切相关.信任氛围对供应链信任仅起保健因素的作用,供应链信任均衡的稳定性主要受关键关系的影响.最后用算例说明和验证结论.     

营销渠道中双边专用性投资对合作创新绩效影响的实证研究

本文在资源基础理论拓展分析基础上,研究渠道伙伴之间双边专用性投资对合作创新绩效的影响.通过对国内340家制造商相关数据的实证分析,结果表明,双边专用性投资有利于合作双方正式契约的实施和关系信任的形成.同时,正式契约和关系信任与彼此之间的关系学习呈正相关关系,进而促进了合作创新绩效.另外,关系信任本身也促进了合作创新绩效.但是,正式契约与合作创新绩效之间的关系不是十分明显,必须通过关系学习这一中介变量才能对合作创新绩效产生影响.而且,与正式契约相比,中国企业应更加看重与合作伙伴关系信任的发展.本文的结论对于发展在中国情境下营销渠道的合作具有重要的意义.     

Criteria for selecting a production control philosophy

Logistic objectives constitute a compromise between having short leadtimes and a low volume of work in progress on the one hand and a high resource loading and due date obligation on the other. Miscellaneous production planning approaches offered today provide different combinations of logistic objectives for satisfying a manufacturing strategy. To combine the strength of the various approaches into a unified system, a new approach based on a dynamic and distributed production planning methodology is proposed. To customize the approach, various analyses and specifications have to be made and for that reason some important characteristics and criteria for analysing production control philosophies will be given.     

The social construction of the meaning of acute stressors: a qualitative study of the personal accounts of police officers using a stress counselling service

The police profession is one in which acute stressors are encountered more frequently than in other occupations. Using the personal accounts of 35 police officers attending an in-house stress counselling clinic, the aim of the present study was to provide a qualitative examination of how the institutional context of policing influenced the ways in which acute stressors signified to individual police officers experiencing felt distress. Using the framework of Rational Emotive Behaviour Therapy as an analytical tool, it is argued that beliefs contributing to the experience of felt distress are related to the way in which policing as both an identity and an activity is constructed through the police organizational culture. Not only do these constructions influence the ways in which officers perceive themselves and their environments, but they also operate at the collective level to 'normalize' some emotional responses and to 'pathologize' others which, it is argued, could impact upon the outcomes of interventions such as stress counselling.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Introduction to Special Section on Sensitivity Analysis and Summary of NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis

This guest editorial is a summary of the NCSU/USDA Workshop on Sensitivity Analysis held June 11–12, 2001 at North Carolina State University and sponsored by the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Office of Risk Assessment and Cost Benefit Analysis. The objective of the workshop was to learn across disciplines in identifying, evaluating, and recommending sensitivity analysis methods and practices for application to food‐safety process risk models. The workshop included presentations regarding the Hazard Assessment and Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework used in food‐safety risk assessment, a survey of sensitivity analysis methods, invited white papers on sensitivity analysis, and invited case studies regarding risk assessment of microbial pathogens in food. Based on the sharing of interdisciplinary information represented by the presentations, the workshop participants, divided into breakout sessions, responded to three trigger questions: What are the key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods applied to food‐safety risk assessment? What sensitivity analysis methods are most promising for application to food safety and risk assessment? and What are the key needs for implementation and demonstration of such methods? The workshop produced agreement regarding key criteria for sensitivity analysis methods and the need to use two or more methods to try to obtain robust insights. Recommendations were made regarding a guideline document to assist practitioners in selecting, applying, interpreting, and reporting the results of sensitivity analysis.     

Job stress, job strain, and psychological withdrawal among Dutch university staff: towards a dualprocess model for the effects of occupational stress

This study examined the antecedents of job strain (emotional exhaustion, health complaints) and withdrawal behaviour (e.g. lowered organizational commitment) among a cross-sectional sample of 131 academic staff members of the law department of a large Dutch university. Conservation of resources theory (Hobfoll, 1989) provided the theoretical background for this study. Strains and withdrawal behaviours were expected to be most prominent among those who reported having few resources and/or who reported high job demands. Structural equation modelling revealed that this was indeed the case. As predicted, differential patterns of effects emerged for job demands and job resources. Analysis of the effects of four job-specific stressors revealed that especially the structural aspects of a staff member's teaching task (e.g. the number of students in their classes) contributed strongly to perceived job demands. Theoretical and practical implications of the study are discussed.     

Dermal Uptake of 18 Dilute Aqueous Chemicals: In Vivo Disappearance‐Method Measures Greatly Exceed In Vitro‐Based Predictions

Average rates of total dermal uptake (K_up) from short‐term (e.g., bathing) contact with dilute aqueous organic chemicals (DAOCs) are typically estimated from steady‐state in vitro diffusion‐cell measures of chemical permeability (K_p) through skin into receptor solution. Widely used (“PCR‐vitro”) methods estimate K_up by applying diffusion theory to increase K_p predictions made by a physico‐chemical regression (PCR) model that was fit to a large set of K_p measures. Here, K_up predictions for 18 DAOCs made by three PCR‐vitro models (EPA, NIOSH, and MH) were compared to previous in vivo measures obtained by methods unlikely to underestimate K_up. A new PCR model fit to all 18 measures is accurate to within approximately threefold (r = 0.91, p < 10^?5), but the PCR‐vitro predictions (r > 0.63) all tend to underestimate the K_up measures by mean factors (UF, and p value for testing UF = 1) of 10 (EPA, p < 10^?6), 11 (NIOSH, p < 10^?8), and 6.2 (MH, p = 0.018). For all three PCR‐vitro models, log(UF) correlates negatively with molecular weight (r² = 0.31 to 0.84, p = 0.017 to < 10^?6) but not with log(vapor pressure) as an additional predictor (p > 0.05), so vapor pressure appears not to explain the significant in vivo/PCR‐vitro discrepancy. Until this discrepancy is explained, careful in vivo measures of K_up should be obtained for more chemicals, the expanded in vivo database should be compared to in vitro‐based predictions, and in vivo data should be considered in assessing aqueous dermal exposure and its uncertainty.     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Distinguishing traumatic, vicarious and routine operational stressor exposure and attendant adverse consequences in a sample of police officers

Problems in studying occupational stress within the police service are identified and the paucity of work on operational duties as potential stressors are discussed. The present study reports the results of a factor analysis of operational stressors (N = 601 serving British police officers) that revealed three factors: exposure to death and disaster; violence and injury; sexual crime. These were demonstrated to be reliable scales and were included in logistic regression models together with a range of demographic and psychological variables. Models were applied to men and women separately, which showed there to be different predictors of the likelihood of suffering distress (measured by the General Health Questionnaire, GHQ) in terms of the officer's gender and operational role. Overall the model for women officers was better at predicting psychological distress than that for men. These findings are related to aspects of the police occupational culture. Further discussion is offered that conceptualizes police operational stressors as traumatic, routine and vicarious. Finally, some implications are drawn for the provision of stress intervention in the light of this differentiation.     

UNIX系统性能监控简述及shell系统资源统计程序

本文简要阐述了unix系统中(主要以IBM的AIX为例)进行系统性能管理的几种命令行工具,并通过编写shell实例程序,运用其中提到的工具实现系统资源利用率的统计程序,为做好unix系统管理和调优提供参考.