春天,我们邀您同行

踏着细碎的雪花,2003年悄然而至。我们感受到了春的盎然,春的勃发! 对于我省统计理论与实际工作者来说,对于关注统计改革与发展的省内外学者来说,《浙江统计》早已不是一份陌生的期刊了。从1982年创刊以来,刊物伴随着我国统计理论发展和统计体制改革的进程,伴随着广大统计理论与实际工作者对统计发展的认识与     

要更好地学习统计理论

我们的统计工作,经过整风运动,特别经过去年的统计工作大跃进大改革,已经发展到一个新的更高的阶段,这是执行了党的“破除迷信,解放思想”的号召所取得的巨大成果。在这之前,我们统计工作的主要错误误倾向是教条主义,因此在整风运动中我们把反对教条主义作为改革统计工作的重点,但这并不是说,在我们的统计工作中就完全没有经验主义的错误倾向,现在还有不少统计工作人员存在着这种错误倾向。有些统计工     

从政府型到社会化

上海华东理工大学工商经济研究所石良平在《四川统计信息》1993年第11期撰文提出:如果我们把八十年代以政府型统计为核心的改革称为第一轮统计改革的话,那么我国的统计实际上面临着第二轮统计改革。与第一轮统计改革相对应,第二轮统计改革应把推进统计的社会化过程作为自己的基本目标,这一目标是现代市场经济对我国统计提出的基本要求,也是我国统计发展至今的必然趋势。这一改革的基本内容是:拓宽统计内涵,强化统计法规,建立为企业经营决策服务的企业统计系统和为企业走向市场服务的民间调查系统,逐步形成政府统计、企业统计和民间统计三足鼎     

借鉴统计改革的历史经验，领导好新时期的统计改革

自党的十一届三中全会以来,我国统计工作有了很大的恢复和发展,取得了很大的成绩。但还有不少弱点,还不能适应当前经济体制改革和对外开放新形势的需要。我们面临着根据新形势新需要进行统计改革的紧迫任务。不改革固然不行,不积极改革也不行。只有坚决积极地进行改革,才能较好地完成党在新时期所赋予统计工作的历史任务。     

做好新形势下的县市统计工作

在社会主义市场经济日益发展的形势下,统计工作面临着许多新的挑战。为迎接挑战,近些年来我们在统计工作实践中作了些尝试性的改革,以更好地适应不断变化的新形势。 一、着力抓好干部队伍建设 要做好新形势下的统计工作,关键要有一支高素质     

在改革和建设中发展事业

斗转星移，岁月如流。从１９５３年江苏政府统计成立至今，江苏统计事业已走过了近５０年的历程，伴随着新中国一起成长，折射出江苏社会经济文化发展画卷。当我们静下心来，细细品味她已度过的近半个世纪曲折又绚丽的岁月时，我们为统计事业从小到大，由弱变强，进入了一个崭新的发展阶段，步入良性发展轨道而感到自豪。统计是经济建设和社会发展的“晴雨表”，统计自身的建设和发展与社会政治、经济生活息息相关。经济越发展，管理和决策越科学，对统计的需求就越强烈，统计改革和建设就越能不断前进。半个世纪以来，伴随着共和国前进道路…     

试论高校教育统计工作如何适应市场经济需要

高校教育统计作为整个统计工作的一部分，如何跟上整个统计方法制度改革的步伐，适应社会主义市场经济体制和高校改革发展的需要，这是摆在我们每一个高校教育统计工作者面前的一个新课题。进入90年代以来，我国高校进入了大规模的全面的改革。办学投资渠道多元化，办学的层次性和高校职能的多样化，所有这些变化，都对高校统计工作提出了新的要求。而目前高校统计存在着统计指标体系、统计调查方法、统计力量以及统计标准和信息处理四个不适应状况，因此，必须规大统计改革力度，建立新的统计管理模式。一、高校统计改革的基本思路首先应从…     

要着力加快统计方法制度改革

改革开放以来,我国的统计工作得到了长足发展,统计事业蒸蒸日上。尽管如此,相对于国际国内形势的发展变化,我国的统计方法制度改革仍显滞后,致使统计工作在很多方面不适应形势发展要求,统计事业的进一步发展面临着更为严峻的挑战,统计方法制度改革工作任重道远。一、统计工作面     

迎接新世纪的挑战

新世纪如喷薄而出的朝阳，披着迷人的彩霞，托着艰苦的任务,迎着我们走来。统计要现代化，改革要深化，制度要创新，基础要加强，技术要创新，质量要提高，任重而道远。矛盾重重，困难多多，时不我待。挑战必迎，机遇必抓，风险是契机，发展是目的。奋斗就会有艰辛，艰辛孕育新发展。只有孜孜不倦、百折不挠、锲而不舍地去奋斗拼搏，才能使统计改革和建设的航船，乘风破浪驶向现代化的彼岸，开创更加光辉灿烂的未来！ 发展是硬道理。统计事业前进中的困难和问题，只能通过发展来解决。而发展只有通过改革来实现。改革是发展的根本动力。统计…     

中国政府统计面临的挑战和发展机遇(下)

中国政府统计面临着艰巨的改革与发展任务 需求的迅速增长和面临的严峻挑战,决定了中国政府统计改革与发展任务的艰巨性.     

On the experience of projecting the family composition of the population of the USSR

The joint efforts in the USSR by the Central Planning Commission and the State Statistical Commission to develop projections of family characteristics of the Soviet population are described. The projections, based on official data for the rural and urban populations in 1987, are for the years 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006.     

Demographic policy in the light of the resolutions of the Twenty-sixth Congress of the Communist Party

The USSR is moving from extensive to intensive type of population reproduction, not because of any governmental measures but as a reaction to objective circumstances. At present there is a reduction in the population cohort of working age. This has an adverse effect on production. And the number of the elderly is increasing; we must involve them more in the production process, in monitoring the service sphere, for instance. The infant mortality rate has declined sharply in the USSR, especially since World War II. The birthrate has also dropped, but it is still higher than in the US, France, or West Germany. Some authorities think that this (the ZPG) is a good idea, but this author thinks it is a bad idea, meaning a drop in society's productive forces. We need an active demographic policy, meaning one which ensures optimal reproduction of the population with an improvement in its health, culture, and living standard. The policy must be differentiated, as conditions vary from one part of the country to another. An example is the 1981 decree on assistance to families with children which provides for payments of 35-50 rubles/month to mothers who must stay home to look after children. The number of children per family to ensure reproduction must be 2.6 on the average. In the Central Asian republics family sizes of 4-5 children are anticipated, but in the RSFSR, Ukraine, Belorussia, and the Baltic republics the anticipated size of families is rather low. Measures must be taken to alter this by providing assistance to families with children.     

On the estimation of the parameters of the von mises distribution

The usual maximum likelihood estimators of the parameters of the von Mises distribution are shown to perform badly in small samples. In view of this and the fact that these estimators require a large amount of computation, alternative, simpler estimators are proposed. It is shown that these estimators are at least comparable to the traditional estimators and are, in many cases, superior to them. We also apply the procedure of jackknifing to the maximum likelihood estimator of the concentration parameter of the von Mises distribution and compare the properties of the jackknifed estimator with the other estimators considered in this paper.     

Transforming the exponential by minimizing the sum of the absolute differences

This work presents an optimal value to be used in the power transformation to transform the exponential to normality for statistical process control (SPC) applications. The optimal value is found by minimizing the sum of absolute differences between two distinct cumulative probability functions. Based on this criterion, a numerical search yields a proposed value of 3.5142, so the transformed distribution is well approximated by the normal distribution. Two examples are presented to demonstrate the effectiveness of using the transformation method and its applications in SPC. The transformed data are almost normally distributed and the performance of the individual charts is satisfactory. Compared to charts that use the original exponential data and probability control limits, the individual charts constructed using the transformed distribution are superior in appearance, ease of interpretation and implementation by practitioners.     

Estimation of the parameter in the problem of the nile

Estimation of the parameter in the problem of the Nile is treated as a decision problem with squared error loss, It is shown that the minimum risk scale equivariant estimator dominates the incomplete sufficient unbiased estimators considered by Iwase and Seto, Sharper bounds for the equivariant estimator are derived which may be used to obtain the values of the same from the sample with sufficient accuracy.     

Intervention-ARIMA模型在我国第三产业就业人数预测中的应用

本文利用Intervention—ARIMA模型对我国第三产业就业人数（1952—2006年）时间序列进行了动态拟合,重点考虑了“大跃进”对我国第三产业就业人数的干预影响,取得了很好的拟合效果,并预测了我国未来几年第三产业就业人数的发展趋势。证明了第三产业发展对缓解我国当前就业压力的积极效应。     

西部地区农民养老模式选择意愿的影响因素分析——基于有序Probit模型和结构方程模型的实证研究

基于微观调查数据,利用有序Probit模型和结构方程模型对影响中国西部地区农民养老模式选择意愿的因素进行了系统分析。研究发现：西部地区农民倾向于选择依靠家庭和自我相结合的养老模式。潜变量个人禀赋、家庭特征、认知程度对农民养老模式选择意愿的影响显著,而社区特征的影响不显著;可观测变量年龄、健康状况、文化程度、从事职业、家庭男孩数、家庭生活水平、是否听说过新农保、是否听说过商业养老保险等对农民养老模式选择意愿的影响显著,而性别、婚姻状况、个人年收入、家庭人口数、家庭女孩数、家庭劳动力数、家庭承包土地数、离最近公路距离、离最近县城距离等变量对农民养老模式选择意愿并无显著影响。     

人工神经网络变量选取与隐藏单元数的确定

根据多隐藏层所有训练样本误差平方和最小设计优化问题,求解并绘出计算流程图。Trevor等人认为隐藏单元过多比过少好,交叉验证估计（隐藏单元）正则化参数没有必要。还有一种通常做法是常常利用分类树挑选变量作为输入变量进行人工神经网络建模。而从人工神经网络与多元统计、传统回归和其他数据挖掘工具的区别和联系出发,认为这些观点和做法值得商酌;用ZIP编码实例说明隐藏单元过多不一定比过少好,实际数据分析中所需隐藏单元数的确定可以用交叉验证结合经验判断来实现,利用分类树选择的变量对于人工神经网络没有太大的效果;通过分类树删节变量以降低计算量的效果不如通过压缩隐藏单元个数降低计算量来得好;非完全问题“从简单到一般”思想与完全问题中选择所有变量的思想不矛盾。在总结了Le Cun等人的局部联结以有效降低权数思想的基础上,提出通过随机选择人工变量建立人工神经网络分布式模型系统的设想。     

Measuring the degree of severity of heteroskedasticity and the choice between the ols estimator and the 2sae

This paper dwells on the choice between the ordinary least squares and the estimated generalized least squares estimators when the presence of heteroskedasticity is suspected. Since the estimated generalized least squares estimator does not dominate the ordinary least squares estimator completely over the whole parameter space, it is of interest to the researcher to know in advance whether the degree of severity of heteroskedasticity is such that OLS estimator outperforms the estimated generalized least squares (or 2SAE). Casting the problem in the non-spherical error mold and exploiting the principle underlying the Bayesian pretest estimator, an intuitive non-mathematical procedure is proposed to serve as an aid to the researcher in deciding when to use either the ordinary least squares (OLS) or the estimated generalized least squares (2SAE) estimators.     

On the UMVU estimator for the generalized variance of the multinomial family

Abstract

The generalized variance is an important statistical indicator which appears in a number of statistical topics. It is a successful measure for multivariate data concentration. In this article, we established, in a closed form, the bias of the generalized variance maximum likelihood estimator of the Multinomial family. We also derived, with a complete proof, the uniformly minimum variance unbiased estimator (UMVU) for the generalized variance of this family. These results rely on explicit calculations, the completeness of the exponential family and the Lehmann–Scheffé theorem.