International migration and economic growth: a source country perspective

This study analyzes the impact of international migration on economic growth of a source country in a stochastic setting. The model accounts for endogenous fertility decisions and distinguishes between public and private schooling systems. We find that economic growth crucially depends on the international migration since the migration possibility will affect fertility decisions and school expenditures. Relaxation of restrictions on the emigration of high-skilled workers will damage the economic growth of a source country in the long run, although a ‘brain gain’ may happen in the short run. Furthermore, the growth rate of a source country under a private education regime will be more sensitive to the probability of migration than a country under a public education regime.

The struggle over migration policy

We analyze the endogenous determination of migration quota, viewing it as an outcome of a two-stage political struggle between two interest groups: those in favor and those against the proposed migration quota. First, we compare the proposed policies of the two interest groups under random behavior of the government, with and without lobbying. We examine the effect of the status quo and government intervention in the proposal of the quota on its nature, assuming that, with and without government intervention, the uncertain approval of the proposal is the outcome of a lobbying contest between the two interest groups.

Insect migration: Variability and success in a capricious environment

Stochastic effects of climate and weather have a pervasive influence on the induction, performance and evolution of migration. In wing-dimorphic species, their influence on habitat quality, and on rates of development of the migrant itself, maintains variation in responses to environmental cues determining wing-form and migratory behaviour. Migrants flying above their flight boundary layer rely on winds to disperse them across landscapes in which their habitats are distributed. Patterns of distribution of habitat patches, and the influence of changing windspeeds and direction on the displacements of migrants, result in selection for variation in migratory potential at each migration. In subsequent migrations, this variation and stochastic effects of the winds on groundtracks of individual migrants ensure that their destinations ‘sample’ the landscapes they travel over. The extent and resolution of this sampling, by which migrants reach favourable habitats, depend on the components of migratory potential, their mode of inheritance, and genetic correlations between them, as well as on the characteristics of the winds on which they travel.     

Social status inconsistency and migration

We use NLSY79 panel data to extend the line of sociological research encouraged in the early work of Lenski by analyzing the effects of social status inconsistencies on the likelihood and direction of migration. Given that migration is often viewed as a way for individuals to locate prospective returns fitting for their qualifications, analysis of migration behavior offers an opportunity to examine the impact of status inconsistency. Key findings indicate that under-rewarded individuals, specifically relatively highly educated individuals in low status and low paying occupations, are more likely to migrate than are status consistent individuals. Over-rewarded individuals are less likely to migrate. These findings vary across metropolitan and nonmetropolitan places: individuals in nonmetropolitan areas who are under-rewarded or have mixed statuses have higher odds of migration than status consistent respondents. Individuals in metropolitan areas with inconsistent statuses are not more likely to migrate than status consistent respondents once other determinants of migration are entered in the analysis. Exploratory analysis shows migration increases the likelihood of achieving status consistency. Further examination of the interrelationship between migration and status inconsistency is recommended.     

Origin dependence, secondary migration, and the indirect estimation of migration flows from population stocks

US census data from 1940 to 2000 are used in this paper to illustrate the importance of origin dependence on migration streams and to examine the effects of such dependence on patterns of interregional migration. These findings are then used to make possible the indirect estimation of migration flows. A method is introduced that uses historical regularities found in the ratios of secondary to primary migration and two consecutive birthplace-specific counts of multiregional population stocks. The results demonstrate how patterns of primary and secondary migration act to shape population redistribution processes.     

Asymmetric social protection systems with migration

We study the consequences of the coexistence of different social protection systems on contribution rate levels and migration in a two-country model. Before any migration takes place, the levels of contribution rates are chosen by a representative elected in each country. The migration of each agent depends on her anticipation of other agents’ migrations. We show that the richest agents are attracted to the Bismarckian country. The poorest agents tend to migrate toward one country or the other depending on the Beveridgean country contribution rate. The Beveridgean country can set a higher contribution rate to limit the departures of rich agents.

Causality Chains in the International Migration Systems Approach

Research into international migration lacks a commonly accepted theoretical framework, which would facilitate the accumulation of knowledge. This article aims to be a first attempt to construct such a framework and to incorporate causalities in the international migration systems approach. The author presents a theoretical framework in which four groups of factors acting on international migration are distinguished: economic, social, political and “linkages.” The causalities in this framework are derived from different international migration theories. The various positions of these whole theories within the framework are shown as causality chains. In a way, these causality chains form the time dimension of an international migration system

Can migration avert population decline and ageing in East and Southeast Asia?

Fertility is currently below replacement level in China, Hong Kong, Japan, Macao, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand. These low levels are expected to lead to declines in the total population and the number of persons of labour force age. In a report that garnered much attention among policy-makers and the news media, the United Nations Population Division developed the concept of replacement migration. This was defined as the number of international migrants that would be required in order to prevent the declines in the total population; the number of persons of working age; or the potential support ratio (persons aged 15–64 per person aged 65 and over). This paper reviews the hypothetical replacement migration projections for Japan and the Republic of Korea in the United Nations report and examines similar scenarios for China, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, with a brief overview of possible policy implications.     

我国人口迁移趋势及空间格局演变

文章从影响人口迁移的动力要素和迁移方式入手,从战略上把握我国不同地区未来人口迁移及空间格局的基本趋势,探索促进人口有序流动的各项政策。研究表明,2000～2020年我国每年从乡村迁入到城市的净常住人口数量将大体保持在1500万左右,并在链式迁移方式主导下,人口迁移的空间格局不会有太大的改变,仅出现一些微调,未来迁移人口还将主要集中在大都市区范围内。     

Asylum seekers in Europe: the warm glow of a hot potato

The Common European Asylum System calls for increased coordination of the European Union (EU) countries’ policies towards asylum seekers and refugees. In this paper, we provide a formal analysis of the effects of coordination, explicitly modelling the democratic process through which policy is determined. In a symmetric, two-country citizen-candidate setup, in which accepting asylum seekers in one country generates a cross-border externality in the other, we show that coordination is desirable. Internalizing the externality leads to a welfare improvement over the non-cooperative outcome. However, contrary to suggestions by many observers, we show that allowing for cross-country transfers in the cooperative outcome leads to a welfare inferior outcome because the possibility of compensation exacerbates strategic delegation effects.

Globalization and changes in Australian international migration

Australian international migration has undergone a massive transformation in the last decade, in part as a result of globalization. Although Australia has long been a country of immigration with a relatively high proportion of its residents foreign-born, the nature of international migration shaping the country has undergone profound change in the era of globalization. This paper outlines some of the major dimensions of this change in international migration. The links between globalization and migration are complex and two-way but there can be no doubt that processes which have accelerated international exchanges of goods, information, ideas, trade and finance and led to an internationalization of labour markets have been associated with shifts in Australian migration. This change has had a number of components which have increased the complexity of the international migration influencing Australia. The changes examined include the increasing significance of skill-related migration compared with other forms, increasing non-permanent migration, the increasing nexus between temporary and permanent migration, the increasing movement of Australians out of the country, the significance of student migration and the increasing significance of migration in influencing Australia’s relationship with its Asia-Pacific neighbours. These changes have profound implications for Australia’s contemporary and future demography.     

Below-replacement fertility in east and southeast asia: Consequences and policy responses

Fourteen countries in Asia have total fertility rates at or below replacement level. This is more pronounced in China, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Singapore and Thailand. The implications are far-reaching and profound as they affect the age structure of the population, giving rise to population ageing, labour force shortages, increased elderly dependency ratios and feminization of the aged population. Evidence from European countries suggests that although fertility may rebound, in most countries it is highly unlikely that fertility will recover sufficiently to reach replacement level in the near future. Mortality reduction will continue to be an overriding policy goal, which would further enhance the ageing process. Therefore, the greatest challenge will be to pension systems, old-age care systems, and health systems or health insurance. This paper first examines the fertility transition in five low-fertility countries. It then discusses the policy measures that these countries have adopted in response to low fertility and population ageing. The paper concludes with the policy implications for healthcare, social care, income security and caregiving facility, and the scope for further study.     

地区发展、经济机会、收入回报与省际人口流动

利用最新的第六次全国人口普查数据,本文考察了省际人口流动的空间模式,发现省际人口流动呈现明显的空间聚集态势.并进一步分析地区差异对省际人口流动的影响,结果表明：作为流出地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于人口流出具有显著的阻力效应,但经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低并无显著的影响;作为流入地,一个地区的经济发展水平对于吸引人口流入并不具有显著的影响,其“拉力”主要表现为经济机会的多寡和经济回报的高低.因地区发展不平衡短期内难以改变、经济开放性会继续增强、收入地区分化仍将存在,加上更加自由的流动环境和不断改善的交通和通讯条件,省级人口流动在局部地区集中的趋势将会进一步被强化.     

我国区际劳动力流动对经济增长的影响—就业结构变动效应的视角

改革开放以来,大量劳动力由中西部地区的农业部门流向东部沿海发达地区的非农部门,同步实现劳动力的乡城迁移和产业转移,这既是我国市场经济发展、二元经济结构转换的必然结果,也是支撑我国国民经济增长的一个重要机制。研究结果表明。80年代中期以来,随着我国区际劳动力流动日益活跃,劳动力就业结构效应对国民经济总量增长的贡献率呈加强趋势。消除限制区际劳动力流动的各种障碍,进一步增强我国区域问劳动力流动性,是促进国民经济持续快速发展的应时之举。     

Self-selection in migration and returns to unobservables

We build a model of migration that considers both observable and unobservable individual characteristics and their returns across locations. We focus on the interprovincial migration patterns of Canadian physicians, in part, because physicians are paid on a fee-for-service basis. Because fees are exogenous, we can estimate a mixed conditional-logit model to determine the effects of individual- and destination-specific characteristics (particularly earnings differentials) on physician location decisions. We find, among other things, that individuals with greater earnings potential based on unobservables are more likely to migrate to provinces where the returns to such unobservables are greater.      

全球化背景下的国际间人口迁移研究

国际间的人口迁移与境内迁移有着很大的不同,这些不同包括国际间迁移遇到更多的障碍,受到各国迁移法规和政策限制;迁移者知识和技能是否可以转移到另一社会环境中使用的问题;国家之间语言、文化宗教以及其它一系列差异要远远大于境内区域间的差异。由于国际迁移的这些特点,国际迁移在境内迁移的理论基础上,还要考虑国家之间的法规和政策限制的因素、国家间社会福利之间的差别,以及更注重对非经济因素的考查。目前的全球化和区域一体化趋势对国际的或区域的劳动力市场发展提出了新的要求。     

Implications of economic reform and spatial mobility for fertility in Vietnam

Vietnam has registered a dramatic decline in fertility during the last decades. While the causes of such a sustained decline are still not well documented, many observers believe that government policies adopted in the 1980s have contributed to lower fertility. This article focuses on the implications of the Doi Moi program of market reforms on fertility, taking into account the influences of migration and population policy. The analysis is based on a sequential logit model of birth histories of ever married women interviewed in Vietnam in 1997. The results show a substantial decline in fertility since the Doi Moi program was introduced. The disruptive effects of migration are less pronounced, although migrants generally exhibit lower childbearingrates, and a somewhat different pattern of parity progression. We argue that the economic reforms of 1986, and the two-child policy initiated two years later, have reinforcedVietnamese women's desire for smaller families.     

On human capital formation with exit options: comment and new results

Katz and Rapoport (2005) conclude that with linear production technology and the possibility of unilateral migration, region-specific shocks may increase the average level of education. Previously, Poutvaara (2000) derived a corresponding result with Cobb–Douglas technology and migration which may go in both directions. This paper extends the analysis to all strictly concave production functions, and shows how the effect of the region-specific shocks depends on the shape of the production function. Also, the paper establishes when the presence of exit option increases and when it reduces investment in education. The results are robust to allowing for migration costs.     

城乡劳动力流动与迁移回报率

本文从微观主体人力资本投资的角度来理解中国农村劳动力流动现象。提出应该将迁移作为一种投资方式单独进行考察。通过讨论迁移的预期成本和收益,发现与教育投资相比,迁移能得到较高的回报率,迁移回报率是吸引农村劳动力选择迁移流动到城市的重要因素。由此得出结论：农村劳动力向城市的迁移是一种理性选择的人力资本投资方式。要改变中国二十年来农村劳动力以低教育水平、低收入水平为特征的循环流动。必须尽快改善农村的人力资本投资环境。特别是教育环境．     

Environmental security and labor migration in Nepal

Do changes in environmental security that result from declining access to forest resources shape labor migration in a context where household production and consumption are intimately dependent on natural resources? Using 1996 household data from the Chitwan Valley of Nepal, we examined if a decrease in access to firewood increased the likelihood of migration of individuals for work. The results of multinomial logistic regression showed that, environmental insecurity was a significant predictor for migration regardless of destination, domestic or international. Labor requirements for household maintenance also played an important role in the decision to migrate. Management of forest resources and poverty alleviation by providing firewood substitutes and economic opportunities at the local level is likely to change the labor migration flow, which could be an important issue for future research.