Changes in Employment Uncertainty and the Fertility Intention–Realization Link: An Analysis Based on the Swiss Household Panel

How do changes in employment uncertainty matter for fertility? Empirical studies on the impact of employment uncertainty on reproductive decision-making offer a variety of conclusions, ranging from gender and socio-economic differences in the effect of employment uncertainty on fertility intentions and behaviour, to the effect of employment on changes in fertility intentions. This article analyses the association between a change in subjective employment uncertainty and fertility intentions and behaviour by distinguishing male and female partners’ employment uncertainty, and examines the variation in these associations by education. Using a sample of men and women living in a couple from the Swiss Household Panel (SHP 2002–2011), we examine through multinomial analysis how changes in employment uncertainty and selected socio-demographic factors are related to individual childbearing decisions. Our results show strong gendered effects of changes in employment uncertainty on the revision of reproductive decisions among the highly educated population.     

How are Time-Dependent Childbearing Intentions Realized? Realization,Postponement, Abandonment,Bringing Forward

Our study aims to identify factors that facilitate or inhibit the realization of fertility intentions. The analysis uses data collected in the first two waves of a Hungarian longitudinal survey. Fertility intentions recorded at the first wave pertain to the subsequent 3-year period, just similar to the behavior variable measuring the realization of intentions, i.e., a birth within the 3-year period in question. For this analysis, we used the respondents’ demographic, socio-structural, and orientational traits recorded at the first interview. Our findings show that age, parity, and partnership play a determining role in the realization of fertility intentions, but employment status, religious affiliation, and overall life satisfaction all exhibit significant effects. A marked gender difference was detected not only with regard to employment status but in the area of values and orientations as well.     

农地制、土地利用与可持续发展——以内蒙古一个村落的60年变迁为例

农地制、土地利用与可持续发展是处于国际学术前沿的一个发展课题.迄今对中国乡村这三者之间关系所做的探究不单缺乏以社区为本的实证研究,而且往往忽视了村落层面非正规制度所起的作用.基于民族志田野调查,文章从历史视野勾勒了内蒙古一个村落以往60年土地利用活动的流变及与之伴生的生态后果,并探究了其背后的制度因素.研究揭示,这个村不断变化的土地利用实践是自上而下的国家正规制度与嵌入村落社区的非正规制度交互作用的结果.国家农地制度中所有权与使用权的分离、集体行动的弱化、社会资本的丧失以及市场经济的冲击等正规与非正规的制度机制的缺失都加剧了微观层面的不可持续性.这一切都折射了西部乃至全国各地带有普遍性的共同挑战,有助于拓宽并加深对农业和农村可持续发展的理解.     

透视新制度经济学视野中的国家法与民间法

新制度经济学关于正式制度与非正式制度的分类及对两者在制度结构、制度绩效、制度联动和制度变迁等方面关系的阐释,恰是用来释解我国学者语境中国家法与民间法论题的对应框架,并为我们提供了一种看待国家法与民间法关系的新颖理论智识,对在该论域研究的知识增量中吸纳国外先进经验和输入其他学科方法具有重要的借鉴和启发意义。     

马克思与新制度经济学假设前提的比较

马克思主义制度经济学是以社会生产和经济利益的客观性质作为假设前提的,新制度经济学是以人的主观行为作为假设前提的。假设前提的不同,导致了对制度的功能和作用的不同界定。对两种假设前提的比较研究,能够更深入地认识马克思主义制度经济学和新制度经济学的理论内容。     

基于TPB模型的个体商业行贿行为研究

防治商业行贿是反腐败工作的重要内容,其关键是明晰商业行贿行为的影响因素和影响途径。基于TPB模型,分析了中国文化背景下个体商业行贿行为的影响因素和影响途径,构建了实际商业行贿行为的影响模型并提出了相应的假设。通过对258名在职MBA学生进行问卷调查,利用结构方程模型(SEM)加以验证。实证研究发现,商业行贿行为意向是实际商业行贿行为最直接的影响因素,而商业行贿的行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制是商业行贿行为意向产生的重要影响因素。     

Sub-Replacement Fertility Intentions in Austria

Combining the data of the 1986–2001 Microcensus surveys, I reconstruct trends in fertility intentions across time and over the life course of Austrian women born since the 1950s. Young adults in Austria expressed fertility intentions that were below the replacement-level threshold as early as in 1986 and women born since the mid-1950s consistently desired fewer than two children on average throughout their reproductive lives. A two-child family norm, however, still clearly dominates the fertility intentions of different age, cohort and education groups. Uncertainty about childbearing intentions is rather common, especially among younger and childless respondents. Different assumptions about reproductive preferences of undecided respondents affect estimates of the mean intended family size. Although Austrians were among the first in Europe to express low fertility intentions, their position is no longer unique. By the early 2000s, young women in a number of other European countries also expressed sub-replacement fertility intentions.     

Assessing Short-Term Fertility Intentions and Their Realisation Using the Generations and Gender Survey: Pitfalls and Challenges

The use of fertility intention questions to study individual childbearing behaviour has developed rapidly in recent decades. In Europe, the Generations and Gender Surveys are the main sources of cross-national data on fertility intentions and their realisation. This study investigates how an inconsistent implementation of a question about wanting a child now affects the cross-country comparability of intentions to have a child within the next three years and their realisation. We conduct our analysis separately for women and men at prime and late reproductive ages in Austria, France, Italy and Poland. The results show that the overall share of respondents intending to have a child at some point in their life is similar in all four analysed countries. However, once the time horizon and the degree of certainty of fertility intentions are included, substantial cross-country differences appear, particularly in terms of proceptive behaviour and, consequently, the realisation of fertility intentions. We conclude that the inconsistent questionnaire adaptation makes it very difficult to assess the role of country context in the realisation of childbearing intentions.     

Attitudes, Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control: Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria

In this article, we study fertility decision-making through timing parity-progression intentions. The theoretical framework builds on Ajzen’s social-psychological “Theory of Planned Behavior”: intentions are seen as directly dependent on three components: attitudes, norms and perceived behavioural control. We study the case of Bulgaria, a “lowest-low” fertility country. In 2002, a sample survey containing a specially designed module was conducted. This module included an implementation of our framework, with a special attention to the links between normative pressure and the social network of respondents. Results show that the three components are broadly predictive of fertility intentions. More specifically, attitudes are more relevant than norms for higher parities. Socio-economic, ideational, psychological and social capital-based factors are relevant background determinants.     

论民间道教文化对农村社会资本的培育

乡村治理的一个内生化维度是受民间道教文化影响而形成的社会资本。＂老天爷＂、祖先灵位和＂街头官僚＂型神祉共同构成了确认集体价值、塑造村庄信任和约束村民行为的信仰结构;道教文化中的关键人物和村民之间彼此认知的重塑使道教信仰向现实生活延伸;宗教仪式与家庭教育则使社会资本得以维系。基于道教文化所形的社会资本具有潜在性和分散性,并可能加剧村民对公共事务的冷漠和利益分配的失衡,迷信的可能也使其难以转化为公共管理资源。应通过制度干预重建＂信任所指＂,发挥民间道教文化中有利于个人道德提升的部分,将其纳入公共管理框架。     

企业社会责任对员工组织公民行为的影响——员工组织认同感和工作投入的中介作用

企业社会责任已经成为理论界和实践界的共同关注焦点,其与员工工作行为的关系也得到了深入研究。以社会交换理论为基础,通过问卷调查和数据分析,从员工组织认同感和工作投入两个视角来解释,企业履行社会责任对员工组织公民行为的影响过程中的作用机制,结论表明：（1）企业社会责任对员工的组织公民行为有显著的正向影响;（2）员工工作投入在企业社会责任与员工组织公民行为之间起看中介作用;（3）员工组织认同感在企业社会责任与员工组织公民行为之间起着中介作用。     

技术进步、制度变迁协同与国际价值--从新经济地理学角度所作的国际价值还原考察

20世纪90年代以来,理论界对于国际价值理论的发展缺乏新的建树,其原因是研究者们缺少深入的国际价值形态演化与“国际价值具体”的对应还原分析。从新经济地理学的角度所做的研究表明,这一时期世界劳动生产率的提高主要通过技术进步与制度变迁来实现,经济一体化所创造的技术进步与制度创新协同性,对于国际价值形成和实现具有特别重要的意义。发展中国家应当积极调整战略与政策,促进技术进步与制度创新,最关键的是加快实现技术与制度形态的转型。     

后股权分置时代会计行为演变趋势研究

股权分置改革作为资本市场一项重大的基础性制度变革,会对资本市场环境产生重大影响,引起资本市场重构。而资本市场重构必然导致市场微观主体行为包括会计行为发生相应的变化。由于股票定价模式的转变、股权激励和发起人股份流通、以及机构投资者将主导市场、还有收购兼并等方面的变化,就有可能引起会计政策选择、盈余管理以及会计欺诈、会计信息披露等行为的演变。本文所预测的会计行为变化可以成为会计研究人员的实证课题。     

中国当代育龄妇女生育意愿分析——以江苏6县市调查为例

利用＂江苏省6县市生育意愿和生育行为研究＂调查数据,从三个维度——社会经济发展、计划生育政策和生育文化（观念）——描述和分析了计划生育政策实施30年来,我国当代育龄妇女的生育意愿及其影响因素。调查数据表明,我国育龄妇女的生育意愿子女数逐步减少,男孩偏好也趋于减弱。研究还发现,人们的生育意愿受到城乡二元化计划生育政策影响的程度正在逐步减小,而更多地受到社会经济发展和生育观念变化的影响。     

酒店餐饮业绿色消费TPB结构模型及其政策含义

绿色消费是有益于人类健康和生态和谐的新型消费方式。酒店餐饮业推进绿色消费具有"窗口指导"效应,将有力地推动资源节约型和环境友好型社会的形成与发展。计划行为理论(TPB)以"行为理性"为假设前提,阐明了行为态度、主观规范、知觉行为控制等因素与行为意向和实际行为之间的因果关系,对酒店餐饮业绿色消费行为研究具有很强的适用性和解释力。酒店餐饮业绿色消费TPB模型的结构分析表明:绿色消费行为取决于行为意向,因而强化消费者的行为意向便成为酒店餐饮业绿色消费推进政策的着力点。为此,应注重绿色消费的个人相对利益,增强绿色消费的正面结果评价,加强绿色消费规范信念的培育和引导,并着力改善绿色消费的便利条件。     

Religiosity and Fertility Intentions: Can the Gender Regime Explain Cross-Country Differences?

Research on the relationship between religiosity and fertility intentions revealed substantial cross-national differences. In some countries, a strong and positive effect of religiosity on fertility intentions was found, while in others, the effect was weaker or not significant, and the reasons underlying these cross-national differences are still unclear. The aim of this article is to explain these macro-level differences from the perspective of the prevailing gender regime. We argue that in countries with more traditional regimes, a stronger effect of religiosity on fertility intentions could be expected than in countries with a more egalitarian view. We make use of the first wave of the Generations and Gender Survey and incorporate data from a total of 12 European countries in our analysis. We examine the influence of gender regime according to various macro-level indicators on gender attitudes and gender equality using meta-regression analyses. We also conduct robustness checks using other indicators such as the Gender Development Index. Our results reveal that the gender regime is only able to explain these differences in certain situations, specifically those relating to the long-term fertility intentions of men.     

政府与社会组织合作治理的形成机制

促进政府与社会组织的有效合作是推进国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要途径。已有研究表明，政府与社会组织的合作存在策略性特征，但尚未厘清达成合作的基本条件与形成机制。组织学理论普遍强调，组织间有关合作议题信息知觉的清晰性以及行为意向的一致性共同构成的“共识性认知”是实现合作目标的前提。温州市苍南县政府与当地印刷包装行业协会、印刷企业合作治理大气挥发性有机物（VOCs）的相关实践证明了上述理论推断。达成有效合作治理的条件在于，多元主体根据组织间有关合作议题的认知结果，自觉实现组织间规范结构和行为结构彼此嵌合、相互支撑。作为治理目标的利益相关方，合作行动过程中的多元主体通过秩序构建、意向生成、优势整合与行动调节四个机制，最终形成信息互通、知识互享、情感互融、行动互补、价值互惠的治理共同体。     

影响英语学习者接受自主性学习因素的调查与分析

自主学习是学习者把握自己的学习、是学习者在以学生为中心的课堂学习中必须具备的一种能力,而培养这种能力也是教育的最终目的。如何界定和培养这种能力,国内外许多学者已经进行了大量的探讨与研究。本文首先界定了"自主性"这一概念的三个维度,然后对非英语专业二年级两个班学生问卷调查的结果进行了因子分析,试图找出影响学习者接受自主性英语学习的几个主要因素。结果表明,学生接受自主性学习所带来的学习行为及学习观念转变的程度受到三种主要因素的影响:学习者对教师角色的理解、学生期望和教师反馈、学习者的信心。     

Couples’ First Child Intentions and Disagreement: An Analysis of the Italian Case

The aim of this article is to examine the determinants of couples’ childbearing intentions, by explicitly taking into account the agreement or disagreement of the two members of the couple. The relevance of the partner’s reproductive intentions has been well recognised in the literature, but few studies have provided in-depth analyses of the fertility plans of both partners. In our study, we used the household-level data from a survey on “Family and Social Subjects”, carried out by the Italian National Statistical Office in 2003, which provides characteristics on both partners. We adopted a couple’s perspective which allows us to give a unitary picture of the concordant or discordant nature of partners’ first child intentions. We found that a lack of agreement in the reproductive decision-making process is likely to occur in the Italian couples where the role of the woman is less traditional. In particular, cohabitant, highly educated and working women are more likely to be in disagreement with their partners in the decisions concerning having a first child. Being religious may be also a source of discordance in the couples’ reproductive plans. Our findings support the utility of taking a couple-based approach in studies on fertility intentions.