Planned and Unplanned Births and Conceptions in Italy, 1970–1995

Using FFS data on births andofficial data on abortions, focus is firstgiven to trends in planned and unplannedpregnancies during 1970–1995, comparing Italywith the USA and France. The next step is topinpoint groups where unplanned events are morecommon. Finally, the relationship betweenunplanned births and changes in contraceptivebehaviour is examined.The planned fertility decline distinguishesItaly from other Western countries. Unplannedbirths and abortions have also declinedconsiderably during the last twenty years.However, some caution is urged before it may beassumed that Italians are the masters of theirown fertility as, during the first half of1990s, 37% of conceptions were unplanned (atthe moment of the event), reaching 45% amongunder 20 and over 35 years old women.     

The potential impact of improvements in contraception on fertility and abortion in western countries

Survey information on fertility intentions, patterns of contraceptive use, contraceptive failures and abortions is used to develop estimates of unwanted births and of unplanned pregnancies for seven countries, by method of contraception. Potential improvements in contraception, leading to more use of highly efficient methods are considered, and several scenarios for improved contraceptive use are presented. The impact each would have on fertility levels and on abortion rates is estimated. Although improvements in contraception will have only a limited impact on fertility — which is already very low — their impact on abortion could be considerable     

Induced Abortion in Russia: Recent Trends and Underreporting in Surveys

The abortion level in Russia has been exceptionally high for several decades, yet during the last ten years it experienced a considerable decline. There is a concern that this favourable change could be largely due to a deterioration of statistical registration in the 1990s. In this paper, we use three reproductive and health surveys for a crosscheck with provider statistics, and analyse patterns and determinants of abortions. Each survey includes questions about the history of abortions. Our data indicate that survey estimates of the crude, total, and age-specific abortion rates emerge to be very close to respective figures from provider statistics for about two years preceding each survey. Survey estimates progressively deviate downwards from provider statistics when moving further back in time due to growing under reporting. This finding suggests that provider statistics on abortion in Russia are a true reflection of the situation they monitor, that the observed declining trend in abortion is a real one, and that analyses of survey data on abortions are justified for up to two years preceding the survey. Logistic regression using the data from the survey carried out in 2000 for the period of 1998-2000 reveals that the odds for an induced abortion are lower in case of a higher educational degree, that the odds increase with the number of children and decrease with the use of more reliable contraceptive methods, and that married women are more likely to have an abortion than never-married ones but less likely when compared to cohabiting women.     

Through Civil War, Food Crisis and Drought: Trends in Fertility and Nuptiality in Post-Soviet Tajikistan

This article has two objectives. First, it aims to complement and extend existing research on post-socialist demographic change, which has thus far tended to focus on Central and Eastern Europe. It does this by describing the nature of post-Soviet trends in nuptiality and fertility in Tajikistan, the republic with the highest rate of population growth during the Soviet period. It finds evidence for a decrease in period fertility after independence: initially, through a decline at higher orders; then, through a significant decrease in the rate of first births, associated with a dramatic decrease in the rate of first union formation since the mid-1990s. Second, it aims to contribute to the demography of conflict and of food crisis. Most clearly, it finds strong evidence for a decrease in nuptiality and fertility associated with the 1995 food crisis.     

Desired and excess fertility in Europe and the United States: Indirect estimates from World Fertility Survey data

This paper presents indirect estimates of desired family size and unwanted births for married and cohabitating women in twelve European countries and the United States. An econometric model for censored discrete data is used to estimate the distribution of desired family size from individual observations on children ever born and total expected births. The data are from the UNECE Comparative Fertility Study of WFS surveys for Europe and the United States and originated in national surveys between April 1975 and December 1979. Estimates of the bivariate distribution of cumulative and desired fertility are used to compute the proportion of women with excess fertility and the average number of unwanted births for each country. The indirect estimates are compared with those from an analysis of survey responses to questions about desired and unwanted births. Multivariate models that control for the effects of marriage duration, age at marriage, education, employment status, work experience, and total family income are also reported.Cet article présente des estimations indirectes sur la dimension de famille désirée et sur les naissances non désirées par les femmes mariées ou cohabitantes de douze pays européens et des États-Unis. Un modèle économétrique, utilisant des données discrètes et tronquées, permet d'estimer la distribution de la dimension de famille désirée à partir des observations individuelles sur les enfants déjà nés et l'ensemble des naissances désirées. Les données sont issues de l'Enquête Mondiale sur la Fécondité réalisée en Europe et aux États-Unis d'avril 1975 à décembre 1979. Des estimation de la distribution bivariée de la descendance finale et de la descendande desirée sont utilisées pour calculer la proportion des femmes dont la descendance est plus élevée que la descendance désirée et le nombre moyen de naissances non désirées pour chaque pays. Ces estimations indirectes sont comparées avec celles issues d'une analyse des réponses sur les naissances désirées et non désirées. Des modèles multivariés qui permettent de prendre en compte les effets de la durée de mariage, de l'âge au mariage, du niveau d'éducation, de l'activité, de l'experience professionnelle et du revenu familial total, sont aussi présentés.

---

This paper is a revised version of IIASA working paper WP-89-41, Laxenburg, Austria, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, July 1989.     

Real wages,alcohol consumption and mortality in Sweden, 1861–1913

This paper addresses the decline in the Swedish mortality rate for adult men during the latter part of the nineteenth century. According to a recent study, the relationship between mortality and changes in real wages observed in previous stages of the demographic transition was non-existent in this period. By contrast, other findings suggest that the fluctuations in wages did have palpable consequences for people — emigration as well as crime (theft) were markedly affected. One hypothesis of the present study maintains that the shrinking consumption of alcohol is a partial explanation of the decline in mortality. Is is further suggested that a positive relationship between changes in real wages and alcohol consumption may conceal the wage effect on mortality. These hypotheses were empirically supported by time-series analyses of annual data covering the period 1861–1913. Real wages as well as alcohol consumption per capita had a statistically significant effect on male mortality. When the alcohol predictor was omitted in the model, the wage effect did not reach statistical significance. The decline in male mortality during the study period was, on the average, about one per cent per year. According to the results, a good half of this decrease is attributable to the trends in real wages and alcohol consumption.     

关于中国少数民族神话感生主题原型的女性人类学阐释

作为神话的一支,感生神话反映了各个民族在其童年时期对女性及其生育行为的独特认知。中国少数民族感生神话中感生主题原型包括崇拜英雄原型和圣洁母体原型。其中崇拜英雄的主题是一种男性自我美化的表现。男性中心文化在将女性推向污浊化的深渊时又不遗余力地将其圣洁化,以烘托男性英雄的神圣与崇高。     

The Decline of Fertility in Malta: The Role of Family Planning

This paper examines the role that family planning played in the decline of fertility in Malta. In 1993 the authors carried out a survey of family planning, similar to one carried out by one the authors in 1971. The analysis of these two surveys suggests that the practice of family planning has not increased significantly in this period. However, there has been a sharp change in the type of method used. More specifically, there has been a shift away from traditional methods (such as coitus interruptus) to more efficient methods (such as the contraceptive pill). There are now a range of affordable methods of contraception available in Malta. Regression techniques are used to model the choice of contraceptive method. The main aim of the empirical analysis is to establish what characteristics are associated with the use of efficient methods of contraception.     

延边朝鲜族人口多胎生育行为及人口学后果

近30年的改革开放使延边朝鲜族人口生育行为在全球化时代发生了既不同于西方发达国家,又有别于中国其他民族的变化,即延边朝鲜族人口在尚有政策生育空间的情况下自觉放弃多胎生育甚至是二胎生育,从而导致人口生育率不断下降。传统的人口学理论难以涵盖这种特殊的人口现象。延边朝鲜族人口生育行为的这种变化是应对全球化时代的社会变迁做出的文化调适。     

Marital and Reproductive Behavior in Italy After 1995: Bridging the Gap with Western Europe?

Despite a delay of 20–25 years, when it comes to cohabitation, Italy has now begun to resemble other Western countries. In addition, the increase in legal separations has accelerated since 1995, although their number still remains far from that observed in countries such as the USA, the UK, and France. Finally, Italy’s fertility decline has come to a halt: the cohort of women born in the early 1970s will likely have the same TFR as those born in the mid-1960s (around 1.55). Moreover, in the Centre–North areas, period TFR rose from 1.1 in 1995 to 1.35 children per woman 10 years later. The territorial diffusion of cohabitation, legal separation, out-of-wedlock births, and fertility recovery overlaps closely with that of the decline in births during the first half of the twentieth century. A similar geographical pattern has been observed for the diffusion of school enrolment, industrialization, secularization, and (during the last 20 years) foreign immigration.     

Teenage sex, pregnancy, and nonmarital births

In “Teenage Sex, Pregnancy, and Nonmarital Births,” Isabel V. Sawhill, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, describes recent trends in teenage sex, pregnancy, and nonmarital births. Her main sources of data are the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program (VSCP). Sawhill begins by describing the high proportion of children living in single-parent families and showing how this arrangement contributes to child poverty. Between 1970 and 1996, for example, poverty rose from 15 to 20 percent of all children. Virtually all this increase stemmed from the growth of single-parent families. Moreover, a shift in the composition of single parents, so that a greater number are never-married mothers, exacerbated poverty and welfare dependency. In the 1960s and 1970s, the growth in single parenthood was largely attributable to increases in divorce; in the 1980s and 1990s, however, the growth was largely driven by nonmarital births.     

辽宁省装备制造业效率分析

运用2001—2014年27个省市的面板数据,使用DEA模型中的BCC模型和Malmquist指数法对辽宁省装备制造业及其细分行业的综合效率和全要素生产率(TFP)变化进行分析。结果表明:辽宁省装备制造业更多依靠规模和数量取胜,而非产业发展质量; 近几年来辽宁省的要素使用效率有一定的提升,对劳动投入的利用水平低于资金投入; 辽宁省装备制造业全要素生产率的变动主要是由技术进步引起的,技术效率的变动起的作用相对较小,但近几年全要素生产率的下降则主要是由技术效率变动的下降引起的,而这种下降主要是由于纯技术效率的下降引起的。     

农村女性的迁移与中国自杀率的下降

我国的自杀率在过去20多年出现了一个明显下降的趋势。导致这一趋势的原因有二：一是农村自杀率的下降影响到全国自杀率的下降,二是农村自杀率的下降受到农村女性自杀率下降的左右。针对农村女性自杀率下降的原因,文中的分析着重于改变中国社会结构的大规模人口迁移,即我国境内大批农民离开乡土到城市打工。我国农民的打工潮包括女性的广泛参与。到最近几年,女性离开农村进入城市打工的人数每年有4000万之多。农村女性的大规模迁移规避了三种既往的自杀风险,即农村女性既往的从属地位、既往的家庭纠纷、既往的自杀工具。所以,农村女性的迁移是分析中国自杀率下降的关键之一。     

The Empirical Analysis of East German Fertility after Unification: An Update

German unification led to a drastic decline in the East German birthrate. Recent explanations of this phenomena point to theimportance of an adjustment process of the East German patternwith often early births to the West German pattern with fairlylate births. The paper presents an update on previous analyses ofage specific birth rates, as well as a new micro-economic approachbased on individual data. The empirical evidence presented inthis paper supports the view that the sharp reduction in EastGerman fertility is in fact part of an adjustment process towardsWest German fertility patterns.     

消费者购买意愿对网上购物行为影响的实证研究——以广州市高校大学生为例

以感知价值和感知风险为基础,结合评价质量、感知易用和感知有用等因素分析它们对消费者网上购买意愿的影响,提出了网上购买意愿影响因素的概念模型与假设。大学生网购前4名为服装、家居饰品、书籍音像制品、化妆品。以在校大学生作为调查人群,通过调查问卷与SEM分析的方法,分析了变量对购买意愿的影响以及变量之间的相互关系。实证结果显示,感知价值是影响购买意愿的主要因素,感知风险并没有直接影响购买意愿,感知有用对感知价值呈正向影响关系。     

霸权地位与制度开放性:解释美国对联合国教科文组织影响力的演变

分析和解释国家对国际组织的影响力是本文的理论目标,而解释美国对联合国教科文组织的影响力是本文的实证目标。论文认为,霸权地位和制度开放性这两个主要变量共同作用,塑造了美国在联合国教科文组织中的影响力变化。二战后,美国的国家实力经历了一个从顶峰到相对衰落再到复兴的过程,而联合国教科文组织是一个相当开放的国际组织。因此,美国的影响力也相应地发生了变化,并在1984年退出了这一组织。2003年,美国重新加入,标志着美国希望通过自己的优势地位重新影响和塑造联合国教科文组织。但是,由于这一组织本身的开放性,美国的影响力虽然比七八十年代有所增强,但目前来看仍然属于实质性的影响力。     

Less Partnering,Less Children,or Both? Analysis of the Drivers of First Birth Decline in Finland Since 2010

European Journal of Population - In the 2010s, fertility has declined in the Nordic countries, most strikingly in Finland, and first births drive the decline. It remains unclear whether this...     

儿童特质概念发展的理论及其进展

近30年来对儿童特质概念发展的理论探讨一直是儿童社会认知发展研究中的一个重要课题。随着儿童特质概念发展研究的不断深入和近期儿童心理理论研究热潮的兴起,有关儿童特质概念发展的理论也从皮亚杰的认知发展理论、韦纳的归因理论和凯斯的信息加工理论等一般认知理论发展为儿童心理理论取向的理论。但在儿童特质概念发展的研究中,尚存在一些基础性的问题有待于进一步的理论探讨。     

Wanting a Child Without a Firm Commitment to the Partner: Interpretations and Implications of a Common Behaviour Pattern among Norwegian Cohabitants

Further knowledge of combined birth and marriage intentions among cohabiting couples will improve our understanding of the nature of consensual unions and be important from a policy perspective. According to Norwegian surveys from 1988 and 1996, about 1/3 of the births to cohabiting couples are mistimed. Among the remainder, between 1/2 and 3/4 are to couples who at least have no intention to marry within the next couple of years. The most radical estimate, based on the most recent survey, is that there are three equally large categories of births to cohabiting couples: mistimed births, intended births to couples planning marriage, and intended births to couples with no marriage plans whatever. The 1996 survey also revealed that a clear majority of these couples who appear to want a child without planning marriage, explain this attitude partly by the less easy dissolution of a marriage. In other words, their consensual union is indeed considered different from marriage in terms of commitment and stability and they may have concerns about the quality of the relationship. There were weak indications that cohabitants with an intended birth in the absence of marriage plans were less likely than others to consider a parental break-up to be very deleterious for the child.     

Fluctuations in infant mortality rates in Berlin during and after the First World War

The social crisis of war, defeat and postwar instability in the period 1914–24 is reflected in the history of infant mortality in Berlin. The prewar trend of infant mortality decline was interrupted by the war, and resumed its course only a decade later. From 1917 to 1923 there was a crisis in illegitimate infant mortality in Berlin, at a time when over 20% of all births were illegitimate. Only by disaggregating infant mortality statistics into legitimate and illegitimate categories can we appreciate fully the impact of the war on the most vulnerable and the most deprived parts of Berlin's population.