女儿歌——自立的根基

在晋中民俗展览中，保留着颇具地域风情的祝寿场景。“寿”和“孝”是紧密相关的。按当地说法，人到六十才算寿辰，这也意味着步入了更需要晚辈们尽孝的年龄段。这寿堂上除高悬的“鹤龄”、“百福捧寿”等贺寿的词句外，最多的就是象征着多子、多福、多寿的这些石榴、佛手和寿桃的图案了，可见在祝寿的礼仪中，最主要的一个内容，仍然是强调”多子”才能“多福”，而“子”，自然也是专指男性后代而言。     

我国人寿保险市场分析

本文就我国人口的年龄结构变化，从宏观经济和微观经济的角度，结合我国政府对人寿保险的政策以及目前我国人寿市场的状况，客观分析我国的人寿市场潜力，并提出一些有现实意义的建议。     

广西高龄人口特征、问题与对策研究

本文利用第五次人口普查及其相关资料 ,分析指出广西高龄人口比例高、百岁老人数量居全国首位、93岁以上人口死亡率变动异常等重要特征 ,以及高龄人口面临着“未富先寿”、家庭养老受到冲击、失落感孤独感增强等严峻问题 ,并从战略的高度前瞻性地提出应对人口高龄化的对策措施     

中国妇女平均初育、终育年龄及平均生育期长度发展趋势论析

一、引言 以往,人口生育行为的时间序列研究多集中于人口再生产的开始,即妇女初婚年龄和初育年龄上。然而,妇女的终育年龄(即妇女生育最后一孩时的年龄)和妇女生育期的实际时间长度也同样是重要的生育变量。 因为从社会学角度来看,妇女停止生育的年龄影响着几代人和家庭内的关系;一个其妇女的生育过程结束很晚并经历较长生育期的社会,必然具有高出生率和人口增长迅速的特点;这个社会一般也同时承受着产妇、胎儿和婴儿的高死亡率。因而,对妇女终育年龄和生育期长短的研究,同样也是对一个社会的人口生育行为的时间序列分析的重要组成部分。长期以来,学术界对妇女的初婚年龄、初育年龄探讨研究较多,而对妇女终育年龄和实际的生育期长短的研究涉足较少。本文运用suchindran和Horne提出的模型,试图对中国的情况做一探讨分析,以期抛砖引玉。     

山东省人力资本空间结构的重心转移与形成机制分析

合理的人力资本空间结构是实现区域人力资本可持续发展的重要因素。本文选取山东省人均GDP、GDP增速、非农产业比重、每万人医生数、每万人病床数、平均受教育年限、教育投入占GDP的比重、人均教育投入、每万人学校数、高中入学率、每万人科技人员数等对人力资本影响较大的指标 ,利用GIS方法分析了山东省 1 990～ 2 0 0 0年人力资本空间结构的重心转移过程 ,揭示了人力资本空间差异的形成机制。     

中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响因素分析

本文利用2004年中国健康与营养调查（CHNS）数据,分析了个人因素、家庭因素以及社会因素对中国已婚女性意愿生育数的影响。结果显示,个人因素如年龄、受教育程度、工作单位类型及月均收入水平对其意愿生育数的影响具有显著的统计学意义;社会因素如城乡、所在省份亦对意愿生育数有影响;但家庭因素,被调查者有无兄弟姐妹对其意愿生育数影响的统计学意义不显著。     

子女数对家庭养老功能的影响

通过因素分析法,在大型经验调查数据上构建出测量家庭养老功能的多项指标,并据此分析了子女数对家庭养老的经济供养、生活照料和精神慰藉三种功能的影响。其结论是:子女数对此三种功能没有直接影响,或影响甚微。因此,“随着子女数下降,家庭养老功能将削弱”的观点是值得商榷的。     

中国第二期深入的生育力调查初步报告(续)

三、生育及婴儿死亡(一)妇女的平均生育子女数逐年减少,反映了我国计划生育政策是成功的。1.山东、广东70年代进入生育旺盛期的30—34岁和35—39岁的妇女,平均生育子女数比60年代进入生育旺盛期的40—44 表8 已婚妇女各年龄组平均生育子女数(单位:人)     

子女数对农村高龄老人养老及生活状况的影响

文章根据2000年中国高龄老人健康调查数据,利用交互表和Logisdc回归方法,检验分性别子女数对农村高龄老人的户居方式、经济来源、生活照料以及生活健康自评方面的影响。结果发现,在控制其他社会经济变量条件下,存活儿子数和存活女儿数在户居方式、生活照料、经济来源方面均有统计显著性,女儿数对老人生活自评状况影响显著,儿子数并不显著,而对于老人健康自评方面的影响,存活女儿数和存活儿子数均无统计显著性,只有年龄变量对老人健康自评影响显著。     

从生育水平估计到未来人口预测

在对不同调查普查数据分析基础上,估计了1980-2001年妇女总和生育率,1980-1990年生育水平保持在较高水平上、1991年生育水平低于或接近更替水平,然后保持下降趋势。通过调整“五普”年龄结构、假设未来生育水平和死亡水平,设计了三种人口预测情景方案,采用年龄递进模型,对未来50年中国大陆人口发展进行了预测,分析了未来人口总数、老年人口数、劳动力年龄人口数及生育旺盛期妇女数变化趋势,讨论了未来中国大陆人口可能达到的峰值人口数及实现零增长的时间。     

Demographic crisis: The impact of the Bangladesh civil war (1971) on births and deaths in a rural area of Bangladesh

Summary In Matlab Bazaar Thana the Cholera Research Laboratory has registered the births, deaths and migrations in a population of approximately 125,000 since 1966. Although this rural area was not the scene of any significant armed encounters, striking changes in birth and death rates were registered during and after the conflict. Birth rates did not change during the relatively brief period of the civil war, but a small decline was registered for one year after the war. Fertility rates which had been declining slightly and irregularly in the pre-war baseline period may have increased slightly during the war and fell substantially in all age groups in the year following the war. The crude death rate, which rose by 37 per cent during the war, was a very sensitive reflection of the administrative and economic problems. Overall infant mortality rose by only 15 per cent over pre-war levels because all of the increase was observed in the post-neo-natal component, which traditionally accounts for less than one-third of the total infant mortality in Bangladesh. Children and older adults accounted for the majority of excess deaths which were largely attributed to acute diarrhoeas and other gastro-intestinal causes. The death rate at ages 1-4 rose by 43 per cent and at ages 5-9 soared to 208 per cent above pre-war baseline rates. All increases in age-specific mortality rates fell to baseline levels during the year following the war, except the 5-9-year age group, in which rates continued to be high largely because of deaths due to dysentery.     

Population statistics] as of July 1, 2000

This Mahidol Population Gazette presents Thailand's population and demographic estimates as of July 1, 2000, using the standard techniques of demographic analysis. The paper provides estimates of Thailand's total population, population by sex, population in urban and rural areas, population by region, and by age group. In addition, figures of crude birth and death are listed per 1000 population, natural growth rate, and infant mortality rate per 1000 live births, male and females' life expectancy at birth and at age 60, total fertility rate, contraceptive prevalence rate. The number of the aged population in 2020 is also presented. Presented in a bar graph is a population pyramid for Thailand in the year 2000, illustrating male and females' age and year of birth.     

Mortality of American Troops in the Iraq War

We estimate the death rate of United States troops deployed to Iraq from the beginning of the US invasion through 30 September 2006. Eighty percent of the deaths in Iraq were combat‐related. The death rate in Iraq is lower than that of the civilian population of the United States but substantially higher than that of young adults. It is much lower than the death rate of US troops in Vietnam, in part because a much smaller fraction die among those wounded in Iraq. We also estimate relative mortality levels for US troops according to numerous demographic variables through 30 November 2006. The risk of death in Iraq per deployment is shown to be highest for Marines; Naval and Air Force personnel in Iraq have lower death rates than the civilian population of comparable age. Other categories with above‐average mortality in Iraq are enlisted troops, males, younger persons, and Hispanics.     

Male nonworkers: Who are they and who supports them?

Although male nonworkers have become a larger fraction of the population since the late 1960s, very little is known about who they are or who supports them. Using data from the March Current Population Survey and the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this article fills that void The picture that emerges is that there is a small cadre of marginal workers who often do not work for periods of a year or more. The vast majority of nonworking men (men who do not work at all during the year) receive unearned income from at least one source, and the amount of unearned income they receive varies significantly by their reason for not working. Family members provide an important alternative source of support for nonworking men who have little or no unearned income of their own.     

Mortality in New Zealand and England and Wales

This paper compares age-specific mortality rates in England and Wales with those of New Zealand. Differences in rates are greatest at the younger age groups, and are particularly high for infants under 1 year and children between 1 and 5 years. The age-specific mortality rates for females under 25 years and for males under 35 years are analysed by causes of death in order to discover where the main differences between the two countries occur, and for infant mortality in England and Wales a further analysis has been made by social class. The greatest room for improvement in England and Wales mortality rates, as compared with New Zealand rates, is at ages under 5 years, and in infant mortality in particular the greatest differences between England and Wales and New Zealand rates by causes of death are for those causes usually associated with environmental influences.     

Direct and indirect effects on infant mortality in a high-fertility US population

This article examines the direct and indirect effects of social and demographic measures on infant mortality using data from a church directory of the Old Order Amish of the Lancaster, PA, Settlement. The sample includes all infant deaths and a simple random sample of survivors (total n=2013). The results reveal that the death of the immediately prior sibling directly increases the risk of infant death nearly 30%, net of other factors. Also, the risk of mortality in the first year increases as birth order increases, particularly at the highest orders (8–17 prior sibs). Infants of the youngest mothers (age 13) are nearly 10% more likely to die in the first year of life than are infants of mothers age 24, nearly all of which is indirect via parity, prior sib death and birth interval. Further analysis shows that families adapting more rapidly to external community pressures face a higher risk of infant death than families living in more stable areas. These relationships emerge even in this homogeneous population with a relatively high standard of living and a traditional lifestyle, Implications are that indirect effects should be included in research on teen pregnancy and infant survival, and might be especially important for studies in transitional geographic areas.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1993 meetings of Population Association of America, Cincinnati.     

Estimates of Survival of Diabetics from Repeated, Independent Sample Surveys

Little is known about death rates among diabetic populations. The few prior estimates have used two data systems, usually a registry or a survey to identify diabetics and death certificates to identify deaths. In this research, the diabetic population aged 18–94 in 1996–1998 and those surviving in 2001–2003 were estimated from repeated cross-sectional surveys, the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Forward survival ratios were computed using a method developed for successive censuses and these were used to compute death rates. Nonlinear regression models for age-sex specific survival ratios were used to estimate parametric rates and thereby increase the accuracy of estimates. About 81.4 % (SE = 1.3 %) of diabetics survived 5 years, for an annual death rate of 41.1 per thousand (SE = 3.2). Among men survival was 84.7 % (SE = 2.1 %) with an annual death rate of 33.8 (SE = 4.9) per thousand; among women survival was 78.5 % (SE = 2.2 %) with an annual death rate of 48.1 (SE = 4.1) per thousand. Model estimates of mortality rates showed an odds ratio of 3.17 (95 % CI 2.64, 3.82) for each 10 year age interval and of 1.35 (95 % CI 1.02, 1.79) for women compared with men. Pooled annual samples, longer time intervals for survival, and parametric estimates of rates all help overcome the small numbers and large sampling variation of survey estimates of survival and mortality. Useful estimates of survival rates can be made from a single data system, a sample survey of the general population. This can be done for any condition where a respondent’s status at the earlier survey time is obtained at the later survey time. It could also be used to make estimates from periodic surveys for nations with limited information systems.     

Continued Reductions in Mortality at Advanced Ages

Mortality data for 30 mostly developed countries available in the Kannisto–Thatcher Database on Old‐Age Mortality (KTDB) are drawn on to assess the pace of decline in death rates at ages 80 years and above. As of 2004 this database recorded 37 million persons at these ages, including 130,000 centenarians (more than double the number in 1990). For men, the probability of surviving from age 80 to age 90 has risen from 12 percent in 1950 to 26 percent in 2002; for women, the increase has been from 16 percent to 38 percent. In the lowest‐mortality country, Japan, life expectancy at age 80 in 2006 is estimated to be 6.5 years for men and 11.3 years for women. For selected countries, average annual percent declines in age‐specific death rates over the preceding ten years are calculated for single‐year age groups 80 to 99 and the years 1970 to 2004. The results are presented in Lexis maps showing the patterns of change in old‐age mortality by cohort and period, and separately for men and women. The trends are not favorable in all countries: for example, old‐age mortality in the United States has stagnated since 1980. But countries with exceptionally low mortality, like Japan and France, do not show a deceleration in death rate declines. It is argued that life expectancy at advanced ages may continue to increase at the same pace as in the past.     

Variation in life expectancy during the twentieth century in The United States

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reports life expectancy at birth (LE) for each year in the United States. Censal year estimates of LE use complete life tables. From 1900 through 1947, LEs for intercensal years were interpolated from decennial life tables and annual crude death rates. Since 1948, estimates have been computed from annual life tables. A substantial drop in variation in LE occurred in the 1940s. To evaluate these methods and examine variation without artifacts of different methods, we estimated a consistent series of both annual abridged life tables and LEs from official NCHS age-specific death rates and also LEs using the interpolation method for 1900-1998. Interpolated LEs are several times as variable as life table estimates, about 2 times as variable before 1940 and about 6.5 times as variable after 1950. Estimates of LE from annual life tables are better measures than those based on the mixed methods detailed in NCHS reports. Estimates from life tables show that the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on LE was much smaller than indicated by official statistics. We conclude that NCHS should report official estimates of intercensal LE for 1900-1948 computed from life tables in place of the existing LEs that were computed by interpolation.     

U.S. population: where we are; where we're going

This Bulletin reviews recent trends in the dynamics and character of the U.S. population, the outlook for the remainder of the 1980s, and prospects for longterm growth. Estimated at 232 million as of mid-1982, the U.S. population is currently growing at about 1% a year, one of the developed world's highest growth rates. Natural increase (births-deaths) still adds some 1.7 million people a year, despite the rapid postbaby boom fall in fertility to a near-record low rate of 1.9 births/woman in 1981. With increasing numbers of refugees, net legal immigration averaged 600,000/year in 1979-81 and the net inflow of illegal immigrants may now be 500,000 a year. Uncertainty over potentially large numbers of immigrants complicates projections of future U.S. population size. Currently, the U.S. death rate is at an alltime low. More than 1/2 the population now resides in the South and West. Rural areas and small towns grew faster than urban areas in the 1970s for the 1st time in over a century. Educational attainment is at an alltime high, as is labor force participation, due to increasing employment among women and the baby boom generation's arrival at working ages. The age composition of the population, with the bulge of the baby boom generation surrounded by the older "depression" generation born during the 1930s and the younger "baby bust" generation born since the end of the 1960s, presents special problems for U.S. society.