1985～2000年我国人口迁移对区域经济差异的均衡作用研究

经济体制改革后的区域经济差异持续扩大是促动我国人口迁移空前活跃的主要因素 ,而日趋活跃的人口迁移亦对经济社会的发展及区域差异变动产生了深刻的影响。本文的研究将人口迁移与区域经济结合起来 ,通过测算我国 1 985～ 1 990、 1 990～ 1 995和 1 995～ 2 0 0 0年各省区在人口迁移前后“人口-GDP”的基尼系数变化趋势 ,验证人口迁移对区域经济发展不均衡的减缓作用。在此基础上 ,测算相应时段区域经济均衡发展情况下的各区域理论人口规模和人口迁移潜力 ,并分析了我国迁移人口的释放速度。     

1990年代我国人口城市化水平的区域差异模式研究

1990年代我国的人口城市化进程进入了加速发展阶段 ,本文通过对比 1 990年和2 0 0 0年两次人口普查资料 ,分析了我国人口城市化水平现状及其在 1 990年代的增长幅度的区域差异模式 :2 0 0 0年人口城市化水平呈现东高西低 ,西部地区北高南低的基本格局 ;1 990年代的人口城市化增长幅度的空间格局为北方自东向西逐渐递减 ,南方自东向西高低峰谷交错递减。各地区 1 990年代人口城市化及其增幅除与经济发展水平及城市化所处的阶段有关外 ,2 0 0 0年普查统计口径的变化也是原因所在。     

关于中国1990年代低生育水平的再讨论

本文根据全国第五次人口普查样本计算了 1 990年代各年份的分性别平均初婚年龄 ,这一结果再次表明这一时期中初婚年龄有显著提高。本文还根据以往历次调查的各年份年龄别生育率按队列计算了累计生育率 ,结果发现 2 0 0 0年时各队列的累计生育率水平高于五普数据中各队列的平均活产子女数。本文还就队列累计生育率计算结果详细分析了 1 990年代终身生育水平的趋势。这些分析从一个新的角度说明 ,1 990年代各队列的终身生育水平也在发生显著的下降 ,正在接近现行生育政策所要求的水平     

社会转型期老年人自杀现象研究

文章利用《中华人民共和国卫生年报》公布的 1 990、1 995和 2 0 0 0年 3个年度的统计数据分析了 2 0世纪 90年代中国老年人自杀状况、趋势和原因。主要发现是 ,在我国社会转型加速的1 0年间老年人自杀率的确如“迪尔凯姆假说”所预言的 ,表现出了随着年龄组升高而不断上升、乡村高于城市以及男性高于女性等基本特征。根据“丧失理论假说”对老年人自杀原因进行了检验和扩展性分析 ,提出了若干预防或干预老年人自杀的对策和建议     

对中国1990年代生育水平的研究与讨论

本文根据全国第五次人口普查样本用新方法对 1 990年代全国生育水平进行了估计 ,就计算结果讨论了 1 990年代生育水平迅速下降的特点。本文还比较了多个其他来源对该时期生育水平的不同估计 ,并对当前仍占主流的一些观点提出了不同意见 ,发表自己的见解及其理由。     

中国的生育率:到底下降了多少?

1990年代以来 ,中国的生育水平持续下降 ,已经进入低生育国家的行列。 2 0 0 0年人口普查 ,中国的总和生育率为 1 2 2 ,明显存在漏报。那么中国的生育率到底下降了多少 ?本文利用亲生子女法、生育史重构法和胎次递进比方法分析了 1 990年代生育率的下降过程 ,认为 2 0 0 0年总和生育率最准确的估计应为 1 5 8。通过分解总和生育率的变化 ,认为 1 990年代生育水平的下降 ,2 /5归因于结婚年龄的推迟 ,3/5归因于婚内生育率的下降     

社会保障水平发展曲线研究

经济学理论通常认为工资和社会保障具有刚性。文章依据分配结构、老年人口比重、人均GDP增长等因素 ,在理论上论证了社会保障支出水平不具有绝对刚性 ,进而提出了社会保障水平发展曲线假说 ,并通过发达国家社会保障水平从 1 960～ 1 995年期间的发展轨迹 ,对这一假说进行了实证分析     

广义稳定人口模型与中国人口估计

本文利用人口普查年龄分布数据和广义稳定人口模型,对1982²010年中国四次人口普查间的生育和死亡水平进行估计。研究表明,19822010年中国四次人口普查间的生育和死亡水平进行估计。研究表明,1982¹990年、19901990年、1990²000年和20002000年和2000²010年普查间生育和死亡水平的估计值(除了19902010年普查间生育和死亡水平的估计值(除了1990²000年的生育水平外)都与国家统计局公布的数据表现出高度的一致性。本文估计的19822000年的生育水平外)都与国家统计局公布的数据表现出高度的一致性。本文估计的1982¹990年和20001990年和2000²010年普查间平均出生率和出生人数略高于国家统计局的公布值,而估计的19902010年普查间平均出生率和出生人数略高于国家统计局的公布值,而估计的1990²000年普查间的平均出生率和出生人数要明显低于国家统计局的公布值。本文估计的19822000年普查间的平均出生率和出生人数要明显低于国家统计局的公布值。本文估计的1982¹990年、19901990年、1990²000年和20002000年和2000²010年各普查间平均总和生育率分别为2.65、1.68和1.56。本文的研究表明,基于广义稳定人口模型的人口估计方法是一种简便、有效的方法,在人口估计或数据质量评估方面具有很大的应用潜力和价值。     

中国1990～2000年乡-城人口转移年龄模式及其变迁

本文采用人口年龄移算方法 ,利用 1 982年、1 990年和 2 0 0 0年三次人口普查提供的年龄别数据 ,估计得到 1 990年和 2 0 0 0年两个时期的人口乡 -城转移的年龄模式。本文所设计的方法能够较准确的估计得到两次人口普查间人口转移的年龄分布和模式 ,估计结果反映了一般的人口迁移规律。通过比较研究揭示了 2 1世纪 90年代人口乡 -城转移年龄模式的变迁     

"四普"至"五普"间中国城镇人口增长构成分析

利用 1 990年第四次人口普查和 2 0 0 0年第五次人口普查的资料 ,对在“四普”至“五普”间中国城镇人口增长构成进行了分析。分析结果表明 ,在新增长的城镇人口中 ,有 5 2 %是来自于地域的重新划分 ,有 31 %是来自于人口从农村向城镇的迁移 ,来自于城镇人口自然增长的只有 1 7%。本文认为 ,未来中国的城市化应当主要依靠人口从农村向城镇的迁移 ,因此 ,采取有效的政策和措施 ,解决好从农村迁移到城镇的人口的就业和生活 ,使他们能够顺利向城镇转移 ,这对于 2 1世纪中国城市化的发展至关重要。     

The lasting low fertility and ageing in Shanghai

This brief article discusses fertility decline and increased proportions of elderly in Shanghai, China. By 1996, Shanghai had 14.19 million permanent population and 13.05 million resident population. The natural population growth rate was 1.4/1000. The birth rate was 5.6/1000 and the death rate was 7/1000. 5.6084 million were engaged in urban employment by the end of 1996, which was 0.5% fewer employed people than in the preceding year. 3.8 million worked in state-owned or collectively owned enterprises. Unemployment was 2.8%. The gross domestic product per capita was 22,086 yuan (US$2661). The average annual wage was 10,572 yuan/year among urban workers. Rural and suburban households earned an average of 4846 yuan/year. The proportion of women of childbearing age continues to decline, while the proportion of elderly increases. 17.1% of total population were children aged 0-14 years in 1995 compared to 18.2% in 1990. The proportion of elderly increased from 9.4% in 1990 to 11.4% in 1995. The median age of population was 37.3 years. Life expectancy was 74.07 years for men and 78.21 years for women.     

Unemployment,Nonstandard Employment,and Fertility: Insights From Japan’s “Lost 20 Years”

In this study, we examine relationships of unemployment and nonstandard employment with fertility. We focus on Japan, a country characterized by a prolonged economic downturn, significant increases in both unemployment and nonstandard employment, a strong link between marriage and childbearing, and pronounced gender differences in economic roles and opportunities. Analyses of retrospective employment, marriage, and fertility data for the period 1990–2006 indicate that changing employment circumstances for men are associated with lower levels of marriage, while changes in women’s employment are associated with higher levels of marital fertility. The latter association outweighs the former, and results of counterfactual standardization analyses indicate that Japan’s total fertility rate would have been 10 % to 20 % lower than the observed rate after 1995 if aggregate- and individual-level employment conditions had remained unchanged from the 1980s. We discuss the implications of these results in light of ongoing policy efforts to promote family formation and research on temporal and regional variation in men’s and women’s roles within the family.     

低层次产业对智力的挤出效应

低层次产业对解决低技术劳动力就业有益，但对智力资源扣科教基本设施却会带来损害。本文探讨产业发展和教育发展的关系．着重探讨低层次产业对智力资源和设施的国际挤出效应，地区挤出效应和本地挤出效应。本文同时指出低层次产业尽管对智力存在负面效应，但不应该因此否定它，并且提出在我国产业布局和地方经济发展中应遵循梯度转移的规律，谨防欠发达区低层次产业发展对智力挤出的同时对收入也形成挤出，谨防发达区因为产业层次不高对智力形成挤出．谨防欠发达区盲目发展高层次产业对低技术劳动力形成驱赶等政策建议。     

广州市城镇就业现状与发展趋势研究

本文主要分析了90年代以来广州市城镇就业状况,并对未来15年内就业形势进行预测。     

Will They Stay? Foreign-Born Out-Migration from New U.S. Destinations

Immigrants living in new destinations in 1995 were 2.5 times more likely to have migrated to another labor market by 2000 as immigrants living in traditional places. The researchers look at two competing explanations for immigrants’ differential internal migration patterns, namely that immigrants prefer areas with relatively large nativity concentrations which provide them with social support versus immigrants are target earners who prefer robust labor markets with strong employment growth and high wages. Utilizing confidential Census data for 1990 and 2000, the authors develop new destination classifications for 741 labor markets that take into account the differential growth and composition characteristics of 24 Asian, Latin American and Caribbean immigrant groups living in those markets. The empirical analysis of labor market out-migration indicates that immigrants do not see internal migration as an either/or choice between economics and social support but prefer residence places that allow them to maximize both conditions.     

The data of 1995 1 percent sample population survey in Shanghai

A 1% sample survey was conducted in Shanghai during October 1995. Findings indicate that de jure population was 14.135 million people vs. 13.34 million people in 1990 (an increase of 0.795 million). Part of the increase in population (0.455 million people) during 1990-95 is due to changes in definition of the de jure population. In 1995, de jure means residents of the city for 6 months or more compared with the 1990 requirement of at least 12 months' residency. Natural population growth and net migrants accounted for 0.34 million of the increase in population during 1990-95. The birth rate was 5.75/1000 population in 1995 in Shanghai, or 81,200 births. The death rate was 7.05/1000 population, or 99,600 deaths. The natural rate of growth was a negative 0.13% or a decline of 18,400 population. Households numbered 4.394 million. Average household size was 3.13 members. 12.454 million people out of the total of 14.135 million people held household registration in Shanghai. Han ethnic groups comprised 99.48% of Shanghai's population, or 14.061 million people. The Han population declined by 0.06% during 1990-95. Other minority populations comprised 74,000 people. 11.838 million were township population. The proportion of township population increased from 66.73% in 1990 to 83.75% in 1995. The number of people who received a higher education reached 9045 people, which was an increase of 1508 people during 1990-95. Population with at least 12 years of education numbered 21,007 people, an increase of 1489 people during 1990-95. 34,395 had 9 years of education, and 21,905 had 6 years of education. The illiterate or semiliterate population over 15 years of age numbered 989,000 people, which was 7.0% of the total city population or a decline of 4 percentage points during 1990-95.     

欧盟共同就业政策的作用与影响因素分析

欧盟自实施共同就业政策以来,就业状况不断改善。根据统计数据分析显示,欧盟国家20世纪90年代后的就业增长明显高于80年代,但是问题在于就业状况的改变是否是实质性的,结构性失业的减少是否说明就业的增加,经济周期中就业和劳动力供给的增加是否更多依赖于经济增长,对就业率和失业率变化、结构性失业和劳动力参与程度的研究将有助于我们对欧盟共同就业政策的作用做出客观的评价。     

我国台湾就业保障体系与失业保险制度的演进

我国台湾就业保障体系在20世纪50—90年代偏重于就业服务、职业培训,以此提高民众的就业能力。随着岛内经济转轨不成功,失业率大幅攀升,才被迫于1999年正式实施失业保险制度。面对新形势台湾地区就业保障体系与失业保险制度将面临更严峻的挑战。     

Climate Change Facts,Strategies, Choices and Innovations

Canada's Action Plan is the federal response to its international obligation under the UN Framework Convention of 1992 whereby Canada must reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to the 1990 level by the year 2000. The Plan is failing completely, because of its essentially voluntary nature. Overall, greenhouse gas emissions will have increased 13 per cent in Canada between 1990 and 2000, four per cent more than the population increase for that period. Five other plans studied by government agencies are projected to fail to achieve the called-for reductions in emission. An analogous plan, the Rational Energy Plan, developed by a network of nongovernment organizations, is projected to enable the federal government to achieve its obligations under the Framework Convention and also its further obligations under the 1995 Berlin Mandate. This Plan has been analyzed using the government's own analytical tools which project that it will offer Canada substantial annual increases in employment for at least ten years, more prosperous households for more than ten years, and a smaller federal deficit for at least eight years. The federal government has no viable alternative to adopting this plan as soon as practicable. This paper explains some of the needed preliminaries to introducing the Plan, together with examples of tax-shifting and of easily implemented stick-and-carrot inducements to making the Plan work in a sea of partly hostile provinces (Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario and Newfoundland). The Plan will not be easy to implement because of necessary changes in human habits of thinking and attitudes. A new and simple strategy for reducing fuel wastage on highways is introduced in this paper; and also the concept of extended cogeneration, the Rational Energy Plan itself being a particularly fine example.     

我国在业人口受教育程度分析

本文依据我国1990年第四次和2000年第五次人口普查的数据资料,运用定性和定量的方法,对在业人口受教育程度的总体水平、分性别、分职业等方面进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策思考。