退休制度改革方案的微观模拟

退休制度改革方案是目前社会和学术界讨论的热点问题之一。应用长春市的微观数据对退休制度改革方案进行模拟实验,结果表明:实施现行的退休制度,将导致养老金收支日趋失衡;适当地提高法定退休年龄、抑制提前退休或实施弹性退休制度,均能够使养老金收支趋于平衡,均不会产生长期的就业问题。但不同的改革方案对不同行业的就业状况影响存在较大差异。     

关于中国法定退休年龄的探讨

关于中国法定退休年龄问题,近年来引发了社会各界的广泛关注。本文分析了几个被广泛关注的因素:中国人口平均寿命与健康预期寿命变化,世界的退休年龄变化趋势以及退休年龄变化对于劳动力市场的影响。在此基础上,文章认为:当前女性法定退休年龄偏低,将导致女性退休后出现养老金低收益及"退而不休"现象。因而,建议中国应当提高女性退休年龄,并且应结合劳动力人口变化趋势,采用小步渐进的方式进行调整,以期在一定程度上优化劳动力市场供给。     

老年人力资源利用与开发的探讨

低龄健康老年人可以作为老年人力资源开发的重点对象。目前我国老年人口在业状况表现为:劳动参与率低、就业途径单一、就业行业与职业高度集中在农业、就业身份以自营为主、工作时间较长。个案资料显示老年人再就业"社会人"需求为主;收入以贴补家用,提高生活品质为主;工作内容以发挥专业技术特长为主;年龄歧视不明显;家人的理解和支持力度大。他们再就业主要受制于个人的生理与个人素质因素及宏观政策因素。应采取相关系列措施善用老年人力资源。     

美国的养老金制度

美国的退休养老一直由政府大包大揽。无论是工人、农民、知识分子，还是政府工作人员，只要到65岁的法定退休年龄，便可每月从联邦政府那里领到能维持中等生活水平的养老金，并享受主要由政府负担的医疗保健。美国目前有2900万人按月领取养老金，占全国65岁以上老年人口的92％。一名私营企业的退休工人每月可从政府领取的平均养老金为674美元。如夫妻双方都参加过工作，则可领取双份养老金（即1348美元）。如夫妻rt方中只有一人工作，那么没工作的一方可作为家属领取半价养老金，两口子可领取1011美元。这种收入相当于一个商店售货员的工资…     

社会养老之思考

据《中国人口》杂志的专家测算:我国60岁以上老人占总人口的比例在1999年2月20日就已越过10%的标准线,到2006年底,我国60岁以上老人已达1.44亿,占总人口的11.03%.预计到2040年, 60岁以上老年人口总数上升到4.09亿,比重达到26.53%,人口老龄化趋势达到顶峰.我国老年人在人口各年龄组中是"穷人"居多的群体.据统计,50%以上的城镇老年人口和80%左右的农村老人在银行中基本上没有存款,只能依靠子女或社会供养.人口老龄化使养老问题日趋突出,高龄老人不断增多,加上我国厉行计划生育政策,家庭的代际人口结构呈"四二一"和"四二二"型.家庭"少子化"使家庭赡养老人的功能弱化,急需发挥社会养老功能,以弥补家庭养老功能的不足.     

提高退休年龄的就业效应研究——日本的经验与借鉴

日本是世界人口老龄化比较严重的国家之一。人口老龄化不仅导致劳动力供给不足,而且导致养老金支出水平不断上升,极大加重了政府财政负担并影响养老金长期收支平衡及可持续性。在这种情况下,日本从2013年开始逐步提高退休年龄。本文对人口老龄化背景下日本提高退休年龄政策及其就业效应进行了实证研究,研究发现提高退休年龄对就业尤其是青年人就业的挤出效应十分有限。日本的经验表明提高退休年龄并不会对青年人就业产生不良影响。借鉴日本的经验,我国应尽快提高退休年龄以有效应对人口老龄化给社会经济特别是社会保障制度可持续发展带来的严峻挑战。     

我国老年人口的基本状况

近年来,老龄问题已引起社会上广泛的注意,第三次全国人口普查又为分析老年人口问题提供了丰富、可靠的资料。一、老年人口的规模、比例及增长速度老年人的年龄界限有不同的标准。过去很长一个时期,以60岁为老年人的界限,七十年代,许多国家都用65岁为标准,八十年代初,联合国又把老年人的年龄界限定为60岁。年龄界限的差别,影响到老年人口的数量及比例,下面用60岁和65岁两种标准来考察我国老年人口的规模及比例。(见表1)     

日本公共养老金制度改革评析

日本从20世纪60年代初实现了"全民皆年金"以来,经过多次改革,养老金制度不断完善。随着人口出生率的下降和老年人口的增加,日本人口老龄化问题日趋严重,社会保障费用支出过大,养老金制度也受到了严峻挑战。日本历届政府都把养老金制度改革作为一项主要任务。2000年以来,日本又根据新的社会经济形势对养老金制度进行了进一步的改革。本文对进入21世纪后日本公共养老金制度的改革及面临的课题做了初步的探讨和分析。     

2010年的日本社会结构

据调查,日本65岁以上的人口的比率,将从1988年的11.17%提高到2000年的16.26%,2010年将达到19.96%。一、急剧发展的老龄化社会乍一看,65岁以上的人口即使占到20%也不是什么了不起的事情。然而,重要的是它同15岁到64岁的人口的关系。到2010年,该年龄组人口将从现在的69.15%下降到61.42%。也就是说,老年人口将从占人口总数的10%上升到20%,而生产年龄人口(15—64岁)则会从70%下降到60%。在老年人口中,有一部分人将靠自己的积蓄生活。但大部分人必须以养老金或医疗费的形式靠     

农村养老服务现状及高质量发展探析

2020年全国60岁及以上人口2.64亿,老年农民1.21亿,占比45.83%。调研发现,农村居民存在在家养老意愿强烈、养老机构使用率不足、基层卫生服务能力差强人意、农民养老金很低导致六成需要子女接济等问题。提高农村养老服务质量需综合施策,从健全完善以婚育家庭为核心的顶层设计、强化基层党组织对农村老龄工作的领导、有效加强农村老年健康教育和心理关爱、合理设计规划农村养老机构的发展方向、务实提升基层机构的医护康养服务水平、加速发展农村经济和提高老年农民收入这些方面,尽快补齐农村养老服务短板。     

The effects of age structure on the labor force and retirement in China

What are the current and future trends in age structure in China as it relates to labor force and retirement? And, what is the impact of the one-child policy on these trends? A trend analysis identifies that as the parents of the one-child family age, China will have an older population, proportionately, with a smaller middle-aged population to support them in the traditional manner, unlike previous generations. A burden will be placed on the working age population as the one-child generation will have to help support two parents if single, and four parents if married, particularly in urban areas. This will also impact rural areas where formal systems of elderly support are not yet fully developed. In terms of labor resources, the elderly may be better supported in old age if they stay in the labor force for a longer period. However, younger workers need employment, while the old must work to offset the lack of formal support, and the potential decline in intergenerational family support due to the changing age-structure. The challenge facing policy-makers is to bring about a balance between employment patterns and support between generations.     

Who is Jobless? A Comparison of Joblessness in Rural and Urban Areas in China

Since market‐oriented economic reform was launched in China in the 1980s, unemployment has been recognized by the government. This paper focuses on the differences in joblessness in rural and urban areas between rural migrant workers, peasants, and urban citizens. The results indicate that people in rural areas frequently lose their jobs, which differs from the traditional perception. There is a significantly lower jobless rate in urban areas. In contrast to the results of previous studies, the employment situation of rural migrant workers is closer to urban citizens rather than peasants. Logistic regression results show that the elderly, women, and less educated citizens have a higher likelihood of joblessness, both in urban and rural areas. Minorities have a lower likelihood of joblessness in rural areas and a higher likelihood in urban areas. Chinese Communist Party members and people without dependent children have a lower likelihood of joblessness in urban areas.     

Subjective Well‐being Poverty of the Elderly Population in China

Poverty is represented not only by objective well‐being indicators which include income and consumption levels, but also by subjective indicators which reflect what a person feels. It is estimated in this article that the incidence of subjective well‐being poverty (SWP) among the Chinese rural elderly population in 2006 was 9.7 per cent, about 4.2 times as much as that of the country's total rural population in the same year, which was 2.3 per cent. Over 16 per cent of the rural elderly population and 11.5 per cent of the urban elderly population rated their life satisfaction as poor or very poor. In terms of SWP, senior citizens, especially those who live in rural areas or who are women or very aged, have become a special group among the poor in China. This article suggests that China's social policies for the new stage take into account the issue of absolute poverty and also that of SWP. A multi‐dimensional strategy system targeting the issue of poverty needs to be established, and a policy system to address poverty reduction as well as old age security and care should be implemented.     

论政府在统筹城乡发展中的功能与作用

统筹城乡发展是一项非常复杂的社会系统工程,加强政府对城乡关系的宏观调控至关重要,不可或缺。政府对统筹城乡发展具有规划功能、导引功能、调节功能、服务功能。政府必须把加快城镇化建设,实现城乡劳动者充分就业,培育城乡统一市场,实现城乡居民收入增长作为调控现阶段城乡关系的方向和重点。应注意充分发挥规划、政策、法律等机制在调控城乡关系中的作用。     

北京流动人口面临的困难与对策

流动人口由乡村集中到城市 ,进入一个完全陌生的环境 ,要面临各种各样的问题和困难。本文从在北京的流动劳动力的就业、收入和流动儿童的教育等方面探讨了流动人口在城市中所面临的困难 ,并提出了解决相关问题的部分对策建议。     

Effective retirement age from employment and full‐time employment,and the impact of the 2008 crisis

Estimates of effective retirement age based on labour force participation rates are commonly used for actuarial experience review and policy development. However, the transition from work to retirement and the socio‐economic environment have evolved over the years, influenced by a growing role for gradual retirement and the labour market impact of the 2008 economic crisis. Rather than focusing exclusively on retirement ages based on labour force participation rates, this article presents complementary estimates of retirement ages to better assess the effective retirement age from employment. It also introduces the concept of retirement from full‐time employment, showing that the retirement age from full‐time employment is systematically lower than the retirement age from employment. The results reveal that the trend towards an increase in the retirement age has been impacted by economic conditions when considering the effective employment of older workers. Results are presented for different Member countries of the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development over the period 2005–2015.     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy： Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland＇s Provincial Fertility Levels

“十一五”期间我国大陆的总和生育率为1．481,呈稳中有降态势,形成了“中、西部中度低水平,东部深度低水平,东北极度低水平”的空间格局。除少数极低生育率省区回升外,实际生育率及其与政策生育率的比值仍在下降。生育率下降的主要推动力是发展,突出表现为生育旺盛期育龄妇女比总人口和育龄妇女的城镇化、非农化水平高、人口外出流动比例大,以及城镇生产、生活方式和文化观念对农业人口的同化作用。发展促使生育率下降的趋势已不可逆转。现行生育政策难以使生育率稳定在合理的低水平。有可能引起政策性反弹的重点在计划生育基础较好的城镇和东部及东北地区;有可能引起非政策性反弹的势能,已基本释放;中、西部农村年轻一代妇女多胎生育平均只有4．12％。生育政策调整完善中的生育率反弹可通过渐进式策略实施有效调控,不会引起生育率大幅强烈反弹。我国生育政策全国统一调整时机已成熟。     

Evaluation of Fertility Levels and Adjustment of Fertility Policy: Based on the Current Situation of the Chinese Mainland’s Provincial Fertility Levels

During the 11^th Five-year Plan (2006-2010), the total fertility rate of the mainland of China was 1.481 and was stable with a slight decline, exhibiting a spatial pattern of moderately low fertility in the central and western regions, very low fertility in the east and extremely low fertility in the northeast. Except for a rebound in a few provinces and regions with extremely low fertility rates, the ratio of actual fertility rates to policy fertility rates is still falling. The reduced fertility rate is mainly driven by development, notably the proportion of the total population represented by the exuberantly fertile women of child-bearing age and their greater urbanization, growing level of non-agricultural employment and outflow from rural areas, as well as the assimilative effect of urban production, lifestyles and cultural concepts upon the agricultural population. Development has catalyzed an irreversible trend of declining fertility; existing fertility policy has proven insufficient to keep fertility rates stable at reasonably low levels. Policy-based rebounds may emerge in urban areas and the east and northeast, where family planning policy has been better implemented; on the other hand, a non-policy-based rebound may have been released. In the central and western rural areas, multiple births occur on average among only 4.12 percent of the younger generation of women. As fertility policy is adjusted and improved, fertility rebounds in transitional fertility policy adjustment can be effectively regulated through a gradual strategy which will not provoke a sharp rebound. The time is ripe for China to conduct a nationally unified adjustment of the existing fertility policy.     

初婚年龄的影响因素分析——基于CGSS2006的研究

本文基于“2006年中国综合社会调查”（CGSS2006）数据,使用事件史分析方法,探讨了城乡居民初婚年龄的变化趋势及其社会经济原因。研究发现,教育、职业和家庭的社会经济特征对初婚年龄有着显著的影响,并表现出性别和户籍差异。教育程度对女性初婚年龄的推迟效应大于男性,高等教育对农村户籍女性初婚年龄的推迟效应大于城市户籍女性,技术类职业相比非技术非管理类职业,对农村户籍男性居民的初婚年龄有着显著的提前效应。在城市户籍居民中,父母的教育程度越高,子女的初婚年龄越晚;兄弟姐妹越多,初婚年龄越早。对城市和农村户籍居民而言,父亲从事管理类职业对儿子的初婚年龄均有显著的提前效应,而且对农村户籍居民的影响要高于城市户籍居民。     

老年人孤独感差异及影响因素分析

文章利用调查数据分析贵阳市不同老年群体孤独感的差异状况,考察了个人特征、家庭关系和社会关系三个层面对老年人孤独感的影响。结果发现:在老年人孤独感差异方面,有配偶与无配偶老年人之间的差异最为明显,城乡之间及不同年龄、收入和文化程度之间的差异也较为明显,但男女性老年人之间的差异不明显;在回归分析结果中,家庭关系变量对老年人孤独感的影响最强,社会关系变量其次,个人特征变量的影响强度最弱。