(Un)natural disaster: vulnerability,long-distance displacement,and the extended geography of neighborhood distress and attainment after Katrina

After Hurricane Katrina, socioeconomically vulnerable populations were slow to return to their poor and segregated pre-disaster neighborhoods. Yet, very little is known about the quality of their post-disaster neighborhoods. While vulnerable groups rarely escape neighborhood poverty, some Katrina evacuees showed signs of neighborhood improvement. The current study investigates this puzzle and the significance of long-distance moves for neighborhood change among participants in the Resilience in the Survivors of Katrina Project. Seven hundred low-income, mostly minority mothers in community college in New Orleans before Katrina were tracked across the country a year and a half later. The findings show that respondents’ immediate and extended neighborhoods and metropolitan areas after Katrina were less disadvantaged, less organizationally isolated, and more racially and ethnically diverse compared to their pre-hurricane environments, and to the environments of those staying or returning home. Counterfactual analyses showed that more than within-neighborhood changes over time, between-neighborhood mobility and long-distance migration decreased respondents’ exposures to distress in their neighborhood, extended geographic area, and metropolitan area.     

The Location of Displaced New Orleans Residents in the Year After Hurricane Katrina

Using individual data from the restricted version of the American Community Survey, we examined the displacement locations of pre–Hurricane Katrina adult residents of New Orleans in the year after the hurricane. More than one-half (53 %) of adults had returned to—or remained in—the New Orleans metropolitan area, with just under one-third of the total returning to the dwelling in which they resided prior to Hurricane Katrina. Among the remainder, Texas was the leading location of displaced residents, with almost 40 % of those living away from the metropolitan area (18 % of the total), followed by other locations in Louisiana (12 %), the South region of the United States other than Louisiana and Texas (12 %), and elsewhere in the United States (5 %). Black adults were considerably more likely than nonblack adults to be living elsewhere in Louisiana, in Texas, and elsewhere in the South. The observed race disparity was not accounted for by any of the demographic or socioeconomic covariates in the multinomial logistic regression models. Consistent with hypothesized effects, we found that following Hurricane Katrina, young adults (aged 25–39) were more likely to move further away from New Orleans and that adults born outside Louisiana were substantially more likely to have relocated away from the state.     

Katrina in historical context: environment and migration in the U.S.

The massive publicity surrounding the exodus of residents from New Orleans spurred by Hurricane Katrina has encouraged interest in the ways that past migration in the U.S. has been shaped by environmental factors. So has Timothy Egan’s exciting book, The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of those who survived the Great American Dust Bowl. This article places those dramatic stories into a much less exciting context, demonstrating that the kinds of environmental factors exemplified by Katrina and the Dust Bowl are dwarfed in importance and frequency by the other ways that environment has both impeded and assisted the forces of migration. We accomplish this goal by enumerating four types of environmental influence on migration in the U.S.: (1) environmental calamities, including floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes, (2) environmental hardships and their obverse, short-term environmental benefits, including both drought and short periods of favorable weather, (3) environmental amenities, including warmth, sun, and proximity to water or mountains, and (4) environmental barriers and their management, including heat, air conditioning, flood control, drainage, and irrigation. In U.S. history, all four of these have driven migration flows in one direction or another. Placing Katrina into this historical context is an important task, both because the environmental calamities of which Katrina is an example are relatively rare and have not had a wide impact, and because focusing on them defers interest from the other kinds of environmental impacts, whose effect on migration may have been stronger and more persistent, though less dramatic.     

Post-disaster fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the changing racial composition of New Orleans

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences—beyond migration-driven population change—generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster’s wake.     

Recovery migration to the City of New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: a migration systems approach

Hurricane Katrina’s effect on the population of the City of New Orleans provides a model of how severe weather events, which are likely to increase in frequency and strength as the climate warms, might affect other large coastal cities. Our research focuses on changes in the migration system—defined as the system of ties between Orleans Parish and all other U.S. counties—between the pre-disaster (1999–2004) and recovery (2007–2009) periods. Using Internal Revenue Service county-to-county migration flow data, we find that in the recovery period, Orleans Parish increased the number of migration ties with and received larger migration flows from nearby counties in the Gulf of Mexico coastal region, thereby spatially concentrating and intensifying the in-migration dimension of this predominantly urban system, while the out-migration dimension contracted and had smaller flows. We interpret these changes as the migration system relying on its strongest ties to nearby and less-damaged counties to generate recovery in-migration.     

Race, socioeconomic status, and return migration to New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina

Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans on the 29th of August 2005 and displaced virtually the entire population of the city. Soon after, observers predicted the city would become whiter and wealthier as a result of selective return migration, although challenges related to sampling and data collection in a post-disaster environment have hampered evaluation of these hypotheses. In this article, we investigate return to the city by displaced residents over a period of approximately 14 months following the storm, describing overall return rates and examining differences in return rates by race and socioeconomic status. We use unique data from a representative sample of pre-Katrina New Orleans residents collected in the Displaced New Orleans Residents Pilot Survey. We find that black residents returned to the city at a much slower pace than white residents even after controlling for socioeconomic status and demographic characteristics. However, the racial disparity disappears after controlling for housing damage. We conclude that blacks tended to live in areas that experienced greater flooding and hence suffered more severe housing damage which, in turn, led to their delayed return to the city. The full-scale survey of displaced residents being fielded in 2009–2010 will show whether the repopulation of the city was selective over a longer period.     

The Role of Community in Disaster Response: Conceptual Models

We focus on the role that community plays in the continuum of disaster preparedness, response and recovery, and we explore where community fits in conceptual frameworks concerning disaster decision-making. We offer an overview of models developed in the literature as well as insights drawn from research related to Hurricane Katrina. Each model illustrates some aspect of the spectrum of disaster preparedness and recovery, beginning with risk perception and vulnerability assessments, and proceeding to notions of resiliency and capacity building. Concepts like social resilience are related to theories of “social capital,” which stress the importance of social networks, reciprocity, and interpersonal trust. These allow individuals and groups to accomplish greater things than they could by their isolated efforts. We trace two contrasting notions of community to Tocqueville. On the one hand, community is simply an aggregation of individual persons, that is, a population. As individuals, they have only limited capacity to act effectively or make decisions for themselves, and they are strongly subject to administrative decisions that authorities impose on them. On the other hand, community is an autonomous actor, with its own interests, preferences, resources, and capabilities. This definition of community has also been embraced by community-based participatory researchers and has been thought to offer an approach that is more active and advocacy oriented. We conclude with a discussion of the strengths and weaknesses of community in disaster response and in disaster research.     

Population recovery in New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina: exploring the potential role of stage migration in migration systems

In this research brief, we explore how places affected by natural disasters recover their populations through indirect, or “stage,” migration. Specifically, we consider the idea that post-disaster impediments (e.g., housing and property damage) in disaster-affected areas spawn migration flows toward and, over time, to disaster-affected areas through intermediary destinations. Taking as our case Orleans Parish over a 5-year period after Hurricane Katrina, we show that stage migration accounted for up to about one-fourth of population recovery. We close by discussing the implications, limitations, and potential extensions of our work.     

Hurricane Katrina,a Construction Boom,and a New Labor Force: Latino Immigrants and the New Orleans Construction Industry, 2000 and 2006–2010

Disasters provide opportunities to study the social and economic dimensions of large-scale shifts. Drawn by the surge in demand for low-skill construction workers in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005, Latino immigrants represented a substantial share of the New Orleans reconstruction workforce. Scholars, however, have yet to examine how the increased presence of immigrants affected U.S.-born workers in New Orleans. In this analysis, we investigate how the influx of Latino immigrant construction workers shaped the demographic composition and occupational-wage structure of the New Orleans construction sector. Using IPUMS-U.S.A. data from the 2000 and 2006–2010 periods for the New Orleans MSA, we employ logistic and multinomial logistic regression models to analyze a sample of 3,206 foreign-born Latinos, U.S.-born whites, U.S.-born blacks, and others employed in the construction industry. Our analysis indicates that the probability of U.S.-born workers being employed in construction remained stable from the pre- to post-storm period, even as we find evidence of an emerging immigrant employment niche in the post-Katrina construction industry. After the storm, however, Latino immigrants were much more heavily concentrated in occupations at the bottom end of the construction industry’s wage structure, while the relative position of U.S.-born workers improved across the two periods. Together, these findings show that disasters, like other structural shifts, can yield the conditions that produce immigrant employment niches. Moreover, our results indicate that while employment niches provide economic opportunities for the foreign-born, they can also intensify the disadvantage experienced by immigrant workers.     

Hurricane Katrina: Who Stayed and Why?

This paper contributes to the growing body of social science research on population displacement from disasters by examining the social determinants of evacuation behavior. It seeks to clarify the effects of race and socioeconomic status on evacuation outcomes vis-a-vis previous research on Hurricane Katrina, and it expands upon prior research on evacuation behavior more generally by differentiating non-evacuees according to their reasons for staying. This research draws upon the Harvard Medical School Hurricane Katrina Community Advisory Group’s 2006 survey of individuals affected by Hurricane Katrina. Using these data, we develop two series of logistic regression models. The first set of models predicts the odds that respondents evacuated prior to the storm, relative to delayed- or non-evacuation; the second group of models predicts the odds that non-evacuees were unable to evacuate relative to having chosen to stay. We find that black and low-education respondents were least likely to evacuate prior to the storm and among non-evacuees, most likely to have been unable to evacuate. Respondents’ social networks, information attainment, and geographic location also affected evacuation behavior. We discuss these findings and outline directions for future research.     

Employment and self-employment in the wake of Hurricane Katrina

We use data from the monthly Current Population Survey to examine the short- and longer-term effects of Hurricane Katrina on the labor market outcomes of prime-age individuals in the most affected states—Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, and Mississippi— and for evacuees in any state. We focus on rates of labor force participation, employment, and unemployment, and we extend prior research by also examining rates of self-employment. With the exception of Mississippi, employment and unemployment one year after the hurricane were at similar rates as the end of 2003. This aggregate pattern of labor market shock and recovery has been observed for other disasters but masks important differences among subgroups. Those evacuated from their residences, even temporarily, were a harder-hit group, and evacuees who had yet to return to their pre-Katrina state up to one year later were hit especially hard; these findings hold even after controlling for differences in observable characteristics. We also find evidence of an important role for self-employment as part of post-disaster labor market recovery, especially for evacuees who did not return. This may result from poor job prospects in the wage and salary sector or new opportunities for starting businesses in the wake of Katrina.     

Going home after Hurricane Katrina: Determinants of return migration and changes in affected areas

This article examines the decision of Hurricane Katrina evacuees to return to their pre-Katrina areas and documents how the composition of the Katrina-affected region changed over time. Using data from the Current Population Survey, we show that an evacuee’s age, family income, and the severity of damage in an evacuee’s county of origin are important determinants of whether an evacuee returned during the first year after the storm. Blacks were less likely to return than whites, but this difference is primarily related to the geographical pattern of storm damage rather than to race per se. The difference between the composition of evacuees who returned and the composition of evacuees who did not return is the primary force behind changes in the composition of the affected areas in the first two years after the storm. Katrina is associated with substantial shifts in the racial composition of the affected areas (namely, a decrease in the percentage of residents who are black) and an increasing presence of Hispanics. Katrina is also associated with an increase in the percentage of older residents, a decrease in the percentage of residents with low income/education, and an increase in the percentage of residents with high income/education.     

Getting Active in the Gulf: Environmental Attitudes and Action Following Two Mississippi Coastal Disasters

The current study examined the impact of the Gulf Oil Spill and Hurricane Katrina, environmental attitudes, and environmental action among residents of the Mississippi Gulf Coast. The authors sought to determine if disaster impact, worry about the environment, or connection to nature was associated with environmental action following the oil spill and in general. We hypothesized that disaster impact and environmental attitudes would be significantly associated with environmental action. Surveys were administered to 1,108 individuals receiving mental health services in connection with the Gulf Oil Spill. Results indicated that disaster impact was correlated with environmental worry, connection to nature, and action. Additionally, environmental worry and connection to nature were significantly associated with action, as were the effects of Hurricane Katrina to a lesser degree. This study supplements the existing literature by examining environmental attitudes, disaster impact, and their association with environmental action following two disasters.     

The World Social Situation: Development Challenges at the Outset of a New Century

World social development has arrived at a critical turning point. Economically advanced nations have made significant progress toward meeting the basic needs of their populations; however, the majority of developing countries have not. Problems of rapid population growth, failing economies, famine, environmental devastation, majority-minority group conflicts, increasing militarization, among others, are pushing many developing nations toward the brink of social chaos. This paper focuses on worldwide development trends for the 40-year period 1970–2009. Particular attention is given to the disparities in development that exist between the world’s “rich” and “poor” countries as well as the global forces that sustain these disparities. The paper also discusses more recent positive trends occurring within the world’s “socially least developed countries” (SLDCs), especially those located in Africa and Asia, in reducing poverty and in promoting improved quality of life for increasing numbers of their populations.     

The Contemporary Marriage and Fertility Revolutions in the West the Explanations Provided by Australian Participants

The last half century has witnessed both in Australia, and elsewhere in the West, first a “baby boom” (and marriage boom) and then a “baby bust” (and marriage bust). Economists, demographers, sociologists and social historians, especially in America, have developed theories to explain these phenomena. Presented to the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, New Orleans, 21–23 April 1988.     

Before,Now, and After: Assessing Hurricane Katrina Relief

We assess governmental and non-governmental responses to disasters using primary data of Hurricane Katrina survivors along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Non-governmental sources include nonprofit relief groups, faith-based organizations, and survivors’ self-identified social networks. We assess the impact of these governmental and non-governmental relief efforts on survivors’ economic, psychological, physical, and social effects from the disaster. Our results show that social isolation significantly increases perceptions of disaster disturbance and decreases perceived rates of disaster relief. Additionally, survivors perceive that social networks provide greater sources of psychological, financial and social disaster relief than government sources. However, survivors’ social networks decay sharply in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and they do not appear to fully recover a year from the disaster. These social networks themselves are not fully resilient to a disaster.

Social vulnerability and migration in the wake of disaster: the case of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

This study explores the relationship between place-based social vulnerability and post-disaster migration in the U.S. Gulf Coast region following Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Using county-level data from the U.S. Census Bureau, we develop a regional index of social vulnerability and examine how its various dimensions are related to migration patterns in the wake of the storms. Our results show that places characterized by greater proportions of disadvantaged populations, housing damage, and, to a lesser degree, more densely built environments were significantly more likely to experience outmigration following the hurricanes. Our results also show that these relationships were not spatially random, but rather exhibited significant geographic clustering. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for future research and public policy.     

Fatal tradeoff? Toward a better understanding of the costs of not evacuating from a hurricane in landfall counties

Given the significant population increases in United States hurricane-prone coastal areas since 1970, we empirically model U.S. coastal hurricane fatalities from 1970 to 2007. The findings suggest that an apparent decline in hurricane fatality risk since 1970 may be overstated, especially considering the impact of evacuation levels achieved, and that various factors believed to affect the rate of hurricane fatalities have divergent outcomes. The research also illustrates the necessity of understanding the impact of a seminal storm such as Hurricane Katrina. In the analyses, we account for the coastal versus inland county location in the raw fatality data, as well as for the role of evacuation using zero-inflated specifications to handle the excessive number of zero fatality county observations. Initial results, with and without the fatalities from Hurricane Katrina, show that the expected count of fatalities increases by a factor of 1.7–3.4 for a one category level increase in storm strength, and begin to provide an understanding of the bias in the fatality data by varying the level of county evacuation achieved. Finally, we find a higher expected count of fatalities for more frequently struck counties, especially those in the Gulf of Mexico; a lower expected count of fatalities for counties with higher percentages of the population over 65, less than 18, and in poverty. We have also found that forecasting technology improvements have had a relatively minor effect on the expected count of fatalities.     

Emplaced social vulnerability to technological disasters: Southeast Louisiana and the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill

We examine the relationship between emplaced social vulnerability and impacts on mental health following the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Through joint analysis of data from Community Oil Spill Survey and US Census Bureau products, a place-based index of social vulnerability is developed to examine how emplaced characteristics engender unique susceptibility to the disaster, with specific attention on the influence of natural resource employment and community sentiment. Results show negative mental health impacts to be more pronounced at baseline compared to later time points and that shifts in negative mental health were not uniform for localities with divergent levels of social vulnerability, where places identified with high levels of social vulnerability the effectiveness of attributes associated with resilience were muted, while the effect of vulnerability attributes was amplified. These findings contribute to the understanding of vulnerability as a multidimensional concept shaped by the social attributes that characterize people and places.