Optimal control of large nonlinear models: An efficient method of policy search applied to the Dutch economy

A modification of optimal control for an economy under uncertainty, by splitting the technique into a simulation phase and a control phase, makes policy optimization feasible for large-scale nonlinear models. The advantages of this approach in a policy search are clearly illustrated by an application to Dutch economic planning. A historical analysis shows that it is important to treat unemployment and the balance of payments as the key targets. That dual target strategy, worked out for the current planning period, leads to economic expansion and employment creation rather than retreachment.     

Poverty, inequality, and development: A distributional approach

Economists have concentrated on aggregate economic growth to measure countries' development progress and in recent years have also considered income distribution performance. This paper reverses the conventional emphasis by placing income distribution at the forefront. I examine what is known about the distributions of income and poverty in the developing countries of the world and probe the correlations between poverty, inequality, and development. I explore the main sources of inequality and the extent to which individual countries have managed to alleviate poverty and reduce inequality in the course of economic growth. Employing evidence from case studies of six developing nations. I suggest some explanations for differing patterns of development and call for development planning founded on a firm commitment to helping the poor.     

加深对转变经济发展方式的理论认识

转变经济发展方式是党的十七大提出的重要战略任务,是实现经济良性发展、积蓄后劲的紧迫要求,也是在正确认识和把握我国自身经济发展规律基础上作出的必然选择。要保证经济又好又快发展,在遵循一切社会形态共有的经济规律的同时,还必须遵循我国自身经济发展规律。具体为:速度、质量和效益相统一的规律;保持社会供求总量基本平衡,避免大起大落的规律;经济发展与人口、资源、环境相协调的规律;依靠科技进步和提高劳动力素质,把握引进、消化、吸收和提高创新能力的规律;梯度推移、统筹区域协调发展的规律;以人为本,不断提高人民生活水平为最高目的的规律。这些规律表明,转变经济发展方式较之转变经济增长方式,其内容更全面,更广泛,更加注重结构的变革和"质"的提高,更加注重统筹兼顾和协调发展。因此,实施转变经济发展方式这一系统工程,必须抓住重点,从七个方面"转轨变型"、总体推进:从数量型向质量型转变;从外延型向内涵型转变;从速度型向效益型转变;从高耗型向节约型转变;从线性型向循环型转变;从守业型向创新型转变;从政府主导型向市场主导型转变。     

Development and environment: An illustrative model

Many aspects of the physical environment are affected by the process of economic growth and development, creating a need to understand the internal dynamics of environmental systems and their relation to the level and price of economic activity. The present paper sets forth a simple mathematical model of environment, and uses it to illustrate the relationship between economic development and the environment. The model incorporates dynamic features of environmental change—its self-regenerating capacity and the existence of an extinction threshold—and measures the effects of the state of development and its rate of growth in terms of extraction, consumption or destruction, and beneficial inputs. The model also allows consideration of alternative relations defining the extinction threshold, carrying capacity, and the basic growth rate of the environmental system. Both the effect of development on the environment and the reverse-feedback effect of the environment on development are considered.     

The role of deficit and debt in financing growth in West Africa

Empirical literature on debt–growth nexus and deficit-growth nexus indicate that government debt and fiscal deficit could have negative effects on economic growth after a certain threshold level. However, the impacts of debt and deficit on economic growth via the financial sector have not been thoroughly explored. Thus, this study examines the effects of debt and deficit on finance–growth nexus in West African region. It employs empirical strategies that account for various economic and econometrics issues. Evidence from the study reveals that the impact of financial development on growth varies with the levels of debt and deficit. Specifically, the marginal effects of financial development on growth turn negative when debt and deficit exceed the threshold levels of 48.6% and −13.5% of GDP, respectively. The implication of this study is that the financial sector is one of the channels through which debt and deficit exert their influences on economic growth. Thus, an increase in financial development would not produce the desirable long-run economic benefits unless it is accompanied by a reduction in government debt and fiscal deficit. Based on the findings, the study makes some policy recommendations.     

China’s Economic Development and Development Economics Innovation

China has experienced rapid economic growth since its reform and opening up 40 years ago. The prime mover and key driver of these amazing achievements originated in China’s transformation from a planned economy to a socialist market economy, and from a closed economy to an open economy. The optimal allocation of the various factors of production and the interaction of economic growth and structural upgrading also played a significant part. China’s economic growth over the 40 years has applied, and proven effective, the general principles of development economics, and more importantly, based on the realities of China, it has contributed to theoretical innovation and institutional innovation, leading China along the road of socialism with Chinese characteristics. Entering the new era, China is committed to building a modern economic system and promoting high-quality development under the guidance of the new development concepts of innovation, coordination, green development, opening up and sharing.     

Asset opportunity for the poor: an asset-based policy agenda towards inclusive growth in China

The concept of inclusive growth recently embraced by the Chinese government marks a new way of thinking about social policy and development. The primary goal of inclusive growth is to ensure that all people, especially the poorest, have an equal opportunity to participate in, and benefit from, the country's economic growth. In accordance with the new orientation of development strategies, there has been a paradigm shift in social policy from conventional income maintenance to promotion of the poor's asset accumulation and long-term development. Given China's striking social and economic inequalities, this article argues that an asset-based social policy is a key strategy in the strengthening of inclusive growth. The article highlights several areas of the welfare system where asset-based policies could be developed or expanded.     

Growth management in Maricopa County, 1988–1992: An application of Kindgon's agenda setting model

This is a case of growth management activities of Maricopa County, Arizona, the metropolitan-Phoenix area, between 1988 and 1992. It tests Kingdon's three stream model of agenda setting as an analytical approach to explaining the development of regional governance. Growth planning is a controversial topic in Maricopa County. The region contains numerous, fiercely independent local jurisdictions; competition between the private and public sectors for control of the growth planning process; and a growth-fueled economy. Some successes in regional growth planning occurred, but political forces constrained full regional governance. Longer term assessment of growth planning in Maricopa County needs to go beyond Kingdon's model and case study analysis.     

中国创业型经济发展态势与促进路径

创业型经济是主要靠创新和创业驱动发展的新经济形态。鼓励创新与创业,发展创业型经济,已成为包括我国在内许多国家的政策取向。目前我国创业型经济发展总体态势良好,但还存在着一些问题,其因在于文化、制度、机制和资源四大制约,因此需要从制度、机制、战略规划与途径等多个方面入手整体设计,才能有效促进我国创业型经济发展,加快经济发展方式转变。     

The dynamics among entrepreneurship,innovation, and economic growth in the Eurozone countries

Economic growth in the Eurozone has been lacklustre over the last two decades due to increased global competition from economic players in other regions, economic and financial crisis, and political uncertainties within the zone. To increase the global competitiveness of the region, the European Union launched the Europe 2020 Strategy to raise the level of entrepreneurship and innovation, which are purported to be key drivers of economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this assertion is true. Thus, the paper investigates the Granger causal relationships among entrepreneurship development, innovation, and economic growth for a sample of the Eurozone countries for the period 2001–2016. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds that in the long run, both entrepreneurship and innovation stimulate economic growth. In the short run, strong causal links exist but are not always uniform. The results reveal that Eurozone countries should indeed base their growth strategies on policies that promote innovation and policies that create incentives for entrepreneurship.     

The impact of alternative development strategies: Simulations with a dynamic input-output model

This paper analyzes the implications of two different development strategies: outward-looking strategy led by manufacturing exports and inward-looking strategy focused on import substitution strategy. Our approach is to do counterfactual experiments with a dynamic input-output model in order to explore the impact of the different strategy on economic performance. We apply the model to two different countries (Turkey and Korea), which exemplify the two strategies, and explore the impact in each case of a switching strategy. We impose an export-led strategy on Turkey and inward-looking strategy on Korea. Our results confirm the view that export-led strategy leads to better economic performance. However, we also find that there are risks associated with this choice. An export-led strategy requires high level of foreign capital inflows in the early phase, to be paid back later as export levels rise. The strategy also requires a high level of factor productivity growth. If export growth is not maintained, the country will be left with a dangerous level of foreign debt. If high productivity growth is not achieved, the growth in factor inputs (particularly investment) required to achieve adequate growth of manufacturing is not sustainable. Finally, our results indicate that the dynamic input-output model provides a good framework for exploring the structural implications of a choice of development strategy.     

21世纪初中国经济走势:持续快速发展

中国要加快实现社会主义现代化建设第三步战略目标,要建成社会主义市场经济体制,要实现经济和社会的可持续发展,要巩固稳定的社会政治局面,要增强综合国力,要实现和平统一祖国大业,要维护世界和平,都要靠经济的持续快速发展.经验已经证明,1992年以来,中国在很困难的条件下成功实现了经济的持续快速发展.21世纪初中国实现经济持续快速发展的条件是改革开放,科技进步,产业结构调整,作为一个发展中大国的某些优势,已经积累的丰富的宏观调控经验,可以保持稳定的社会政治局面和国际和平环境.     

创意产业的特点及两种存在方式

创意产业已成为国民经济新的增长点和综合国力竞争的重要方面。它在微观上强调创意者的个人创造力,宏观上表现为各国政策性的设计、规划和推动。创意产业服务于许多传统产业的生产过程,能够现实地增加其产品和服务的价值。创意产业提供了更多的就业机会和工作岗位,对于提升一国的经济发展水平,优化产业结构具有不可低估的作用。这种特殊的生产方式,为那些具有文化和科技内涵的传统产业,提供了无限发展的潜力。     

Changing society's DNA codes: Democracy and the global movement for community progress measures

This paper examines some critical issues and opportunities for democracy and public policy posed by the growth of the global progress measurement movement. From the democratic perspective, these include: citizen progress measurement as a form of democratic re‐engagement; the re‐examination of democracy and the development of new indicators to define and measure a ‘healthy’ democracy; and the demonstration of clear linkages between healthy regimes, and broader individual and societal wellbeing. In public policy, the global movement challenges two long dominant assumptions: the primacy of continuous economic growth as the key driver of wellbeing; and the ‘inevitability of progress‘. In their place, it offers a more holistic, integrated and nuanced model that recognises the interdependence of economic, social, cultural, environmental and democratic dimensions for genuine wellbeing, progress and sustainability. The paper reviews work in Australia over the past decade at both local community and national levels as examples of these trends, including the development of citizen‐engaged community planning and neighbourhood renewal schemes in which progress and wellbeing indicators play a central role; the development of state‐wide local progress measurement frameworks as part of a commitment to devolved planning and stronger local democracy; and the evolution of national progress measurement systems. The paper concludes with a proposal for a broad community engaged National Development Index (NDI) for Australia.     

Does financial development cause economic growth? Implication for policy in Korea

The causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is examined, utilizing the superexogeneity methodology. We use annual data for Korea during 1971–2002, during which Korea has experienced both phenomenal economic growth and a variety of financial liberalization and reforms. In our tests for superexogeneity, we find that financial development control causes economic growth, but the reverse is not true. Our empirical results provide evidence in favor of the ‘finance causes growth’ view for the case of Korea while rejecting the ‘growth causes finance’ view. The policy implication is that Korea should give policy priority to financial reform rather than economic growth, because only a decisive and accelerated pace of financial restructuring can ensure a sustainable growth in the medium or long term.     

广西北部湾经济区开放开发的协调性分析

要加快广西北部湾经济区开放开发,形成经济发展新一极,首先应理顺行政区划与发展、利益与发展、和谐与发展三方面关系,从而将区位、港口、资源等优势,转变为经济优势、后发优势,实现经济又好又快发展。     

汇率制度退出与转型：文献综述

如何退出已有汇率制度安排，向更具弹性的汇率制度转型？这是当前新兴市场和发展中国家面临的一个重要问题。在维持已有制度的边际成本与边际收益一致时退出已有汇率制度是最优的。最佳退出时机的经验判断原则取决于该国的经济结构、经济发展阶段、经济冲击、政治与制度因素等。这些因素同时也决定了该国汇率制度退出和转型的策略选择。汇率制度转型所需的基本条件是：一个具有一定深度和一定流动性的外汇市场，一套连贯的中央银行外汇市场干预的政策措施，一个恰当的名义锚，监测和管理公共部门和私人部门外汇风险暴露的有效机制。     

以科学的发展观审视北京的城市现代化水平

北京提出 2 0 0 8年在全国率先基本实现现代化 ,如果单纯从经济发展的指标看 ,应该是比较乐观的 ,但从科学的发展观来审视还存在不少问题。文章重点从郊区城市化的发展水平来说明 ,北京在贯彻以人为本、统筹城乡发展、统筹区域发展等方面还有不少问题要解决。北京距离实现现代化、建成现代化国际大都市的目标 ,还有相当长的路程要走     

Institutional reforms for economic growth in the Western Balkan countries

The paper presents an empirical analysis of the impact of institutional reform policies and institutional quality on the economic growth of five Western Balkan countries (WB countries: Serbia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Macedonia and Albania) in the period 2006-2016. It was developed its own model of quantification concerning the impact of the most important indicators of the quality of institutions on the economic growth of these countries, which are in a delayed phase of transition and at some stage in the EU accession process. Achieving high and stable rates of economic growth for WB countries becomes the ultimate prerequisite for completing the EU transition and accession process. In order to improve growth dynamics, among other things, it is necessary to identify key drivers of growth and to model appropriate growth and development policies based on the results obtained. In the paper, WB countries were viewed as a whole. By empirically testing the impact of individual quality indicators of institutions on economic growth, according to the World Bank Governance Indicators methodology by using panel data multiple linear regression analysis, the largest statistically significant and positive impact came from the Government Effectiveness and Regulatory Quality variable. The intensity of the impact of the Control of Corruption and Rule of Law variable on GDP per capita is slightly weaker, but it is also very pronounced. In this respect, the empirical results obtained can be a useful framework for modeling the development policies of WB countries. They represent an important guide for policy makers to implement measures aimed at improving the quality of institutions and at the same time modeling economic growth policies.     

我国区域规划特点、问题及区域发展新格局

我国国家级区域规划不仅成为国家战略布局和区域发展政策的重要工具,同时也应当成为引领区域经济科学发展的行动指南。制定和出台国家级区域规划必须立足于国家整体战略,能够引导区域内各主体一致行动,规划实施的关键在于建立有效的区域协调机制。未来我国沿海经济带将走向＂俱乐部趋同＂,大城市圈对区域资源配置的主导性增强,产业资本将替代劳动力成为要素流动的主体,民族地区经济的战略地位跃升。