Technological change and the technology intelligence process: a case study

Various reasons are brought forward for the demise of companies in the face of fundamental technological change. Most often blamed is an insufficient technology intelligence process. However, existing research is contradictory on how this process should be organised. Therefore it is the objective of this case study to derive insight into the organisation of the technology intelligence process by analysing it in the context of radical technological change. The results of a study of the technology intelligence practices of 25 multinational companies are presented. Firstly, the structural, hybrid and informal forms of co-ordination of technology intelligence processes are presented as three parallel layers. Secondly, a framework for the distribution of tasks between the three layers of co-ordination are described and the preconditions necessary for efficient technology intelligence processes are shown. Thirdly, the results are contrasted with past research and conclusions are drawn for further research.     

主导企业适应突破性技术变革的整合研究

突破性技术变革的频率正在不断加快,而主导企业在技术范式的转换过程中却经常遭遇绩效下滑甚至被新进入企业所替代.本研究认为,主导企业能否适应技术变革取决于三个因素的平衡和交互作用:技术投资、技术能力以及互补性资产,在考察技术变革所带来的竞争含义时强调综合考虑多个视角的重要性.此外,作者根据这些因素提供了三种应对机制:利用实物期权方法进行技术投资、利用自主事业单位开发新技术,以及利用互补性资产与突破性技术发起企业建立战略联盟.     

Technological forecasting of supercomputer development: The March to Exascale computing

Advances in supercomputers have come at a steady pace over the past 20 years. The next milestone is to build an Exascale computer however this requires not only speed improvement but also significant enhancements for energy efficiency and massive parallelism. This paper examines technological progress of supercomputer development to identify the innovative potential of three leading technology paths toward Exascale development: hybrid system, multicore system and manycore system. Performance measurement and rate of change calculation were made by technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis (TFDEA.) The results indicate that the current level of technology and rate of progress can achieve Exascale performance between early 2021 and late 2022 as either hybrid systems or manycore systems.     

SCIENCE-BASED PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY OF THE MAINFRAME COMPUTER INDUSTRY

This paper reports on the results of an empirical study of product development in a complex and novel environment. The work is based on field investigations of recent product development projects performed by all leading mainframe computer producers. The projects focused on the development of complex products based on advanced technologies and probed deeply into their science base. The results show striking differences in development lead time and research and development productivity between different projects. The analysis relates these performance differences to the process for the integration of new technology. Organizations that emphasize the accumulation of system-level knowledge of product and production process and its use in technology evaluation and selection are associated with high productivity and short development lead times. This appears to have a greater impact on development performance in this novel environment than more traditional factors, such as processes for effective crossfunctional integration and for overlapping problem solving.     

EXPLORING THE LIMITS OF THE TECHNOLOGY S-CURVE. PART I: COMPONENT TECHNOLOGIES

The technology S-curve is a useful framework describing the substitution of new for old technologies at the industry level. In this paper I use information from the technological history of the disk drive industry to examine the usefulness of the S-curve framework for managers at the firm level in planning for new technology development. Because improvements in over-all disk drive product performance result from the interaction of improved component technologies and new architectural technologies, each of these must be monitored and managed. This paper focuses on component technology S-curves, and a subsequent paper, also published in this issue of the journal, examines architectural technology Scurves. Improvement in individual components followed S-curve patterns, but I show that the flattening of S-curves is a firm-specific, rather than uniform industry phenomenon. Lack of progress in conventional technologies may be the result, rather than the stimulus, of a forecast that the conventional technology is maturing, and some firms demonstrated the ability to wring far greater levels of performance from existing component technologies than other firms. Attacking entrant firms evidenced a distinct disadvantage versus incumbent firms in developing and using new component technologies. Firms pursuing aggressive Scurve switching strategies in component technology development gained no strategic advantage over firms whose strategies focused on extending the life of established component technologies.     

技术管理与技术能力匹配对产品创新的内在影响机制

 产品创新是企业获取和保持竞争优势的重要手段。虽然在产品创新过程中技术管理和技术能力都具有重要作用，但是单纯依靠技术管理或技术能力不能维持企业产品创新的持续发展，能使企业获得持续竞争优势的因素还在于技术管理与技术能力之间的匹配效应。        基于匹配理论和知识基础观，分析技术管理-人员能力匹配、技术管理-设备能力匹配、技术管理-信息能力匹配和技术管理-组织能力匹配在产品创新中的作用，识别技术管理与技术能力匹配对产品创新绩效的直接影响和间接影响，构建技术管理与技术能力匹配对产品创新的影响机制模型。采取大样本问卷调查，收集122家装备制造业企业数据，运用多元线性回归分析对提出的假设进行实证检验。        研究结果表明，技术管理-人员能力匹配和技术管理-设备能力匹配都对产品创新绩效产生正向影响，相对于技术管理-设备能力匹配，技术管理-人员能力匹配对产品创新绩效的影响更大。技术管理-信息能力匹配和技术管理-组织能力匹配在技术管理-人员能力匹配和技术管理-设备能力匹配影响产品创新绩效的过程中起正向的调节作用。        研究结果发现了技术管理与技术能力匹配对产品创新的重要影响，为产品创新的理论研究提供了新视角；深化了对产品创新实现路径的理论认识，为技术管理和技术能力如何向产品创新绩效转化的理论研究提供了微观知识基础；识别了发挥技术管理与技术能力匹配作用的内在条件，从权变视角拓展了匹配理论的研究。同时，也为企业正确处理技术管理与技术能力间的关系、提升产品创新绩效提供了理论指导。     

An Exploration of New Product Development's Front‐end Knowledge Conceptualization Process in Discontinuous Innovations

Organizational knowledge creation, as reflected in new product/service development, is a vital process for firms to master. Critical to the development of new products/services is the management of the front‐end phase, which crucially determines the eventual fate of a new product/service idea. However, studies on how knowledge is created at the front‐end of the new product development process are rare. This empirical paper addresses this gap by focusing on knowledge conceptualization – where new knowledge from its generation is crystallized into a concrete and explicit form. Employing a qualitative methodology, the paper examines ten discontinuous projects and develops a front‐end knowledge conceptualization framework. The framework consists of the identified knowledge conceptualization stages and illuminates the pattern of overlaps, outcomes, contributors, knowledge, interactions and volatility across each stage. Our main contribution is a knowledge‐based appreciation of the dynamic and interactive nature of the new product/service development's front‐end phase in the context of discontinuous innovations, and thence the paper provides clear managerial learning points for the effective management of this phase.     

Survival and the introduction of new technology: A patent analysis in the integrated circuit industry

Utilizing a database containing all US patents issued to integrated circuit (IC) manufacturers from 1975 to 1994 we analyze a firm's decision to pursue a technology across varying levels of technological turbulence. We examine the effects of the value of a firm's technological advancement, the newness of its technology, and industry turbulence on the probability of failure. We find during periods of low technological turbulence, firms utilizing new technologies to create significant technological advances, face a higher probability of failure. During periods of high technological turbulence, firms using older technology to develop significant technological advancements face lower probabilities of failure.     

Equilibrium Bias of Technology

This paper presents three sets of results about equilibrium bias of technology. First, I show that when the menu of technological possibilities only allows for factor‐augmenting technologies, the increase in the supply of a factor induces technological change relatively biased toward that factor—meaning that the induced technological change increases the relative marginal product of the factor becoming more abundant. Moreover, this induced bias can be strong enough to make the relative marginal product of a factor increasing in response to an increase in its supply, thus leading to an upward‐sloping relative demand curve. I also show that these results about relative bias do not generalize when more general menus of technological possibilities are considered. Second, I prove that under mild assumptions, the increase in the supply of a factor induces technological change that is absolutely biased toward that factor—meaning that it increases its marginal product at given factor proportions. The third and most important result in the paper establishes the possibility of and conditions for strong absolute equilibrium bias—whereby the price (marginal product) of a factor increases in response to an increase in its supply. I prove that, under some regularity conditions, there will be strong absolute equilibrium bias if and only if the aggregate production function of the economy fails to be jointly concave in factors and technology. This type of failure of joint concavity is possible in economies where equilibrium factor demands and technologies result from the decisions of different agents.     

不确定性在团队授权与新产品开发业绩关系中的作用

一个最新的理论研究表明授权的作用取决于环境中不确定性的程度。在对212个新产品开发项目的定量研究中,发现了团队授权与创新速度之间显著性相关关系。对由技术新颖性和技术动态性这两个不同因素引起的技术不确定性作了区分。结果发现,团队授权和创新速度之间的关系被技术动态性所调节,而技术新颖性则不能。通过进一步的研究发现,在不确定性较低的情况下,无论来源于技术新颖性或技术动态性,团队授权和创新速度均呈U形函数关系。这说明在不确定性较低的情况下,要么完全授权,要么完全不授权或高层介入,都有利于提高创新速度。与之形成对应,在不确定性高的情况下,团队授权和创新速度之间的关系受技术新颖性和技术动态性的影响是不同的。当技术新颖性高时,团队授权和创新速度之间呈线性关系,而当技术动态性高时,二者呈反U形函数关系。对于后者,极高程度的团队授权并不加快创新速度。这些结果说明,应该根据研发项目的不确定性的不同来源与水平选择不同的团队授权策略。这些发现或许也表明,技术动态性比技术新颖性对不确定性有更重要的影响。     

Risk,Process Maturity,and Project Performance: An Empirical Analysis of US Federal Government Technology Projects

In recent years, there has been increasing pressure on the US federal government to reduce spending and improve the management of its technology projects. Mitigating the adverse impact of risks on the performance of these projects presents a significant challenge for its stakeholders. Our research examines this challenge in two steps. First, we identify and define a set of salient risks in federal technology projects—specifically, complexity risk and contracting risk in the planning process, and execution risk in the execution process. Next, we investigate whether higher levels of process maturity, assessed by the Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) framework, mitigate the negative effect of project risks on project performance. The analysis of time‐series data collected from 82 federal technology projects across 519 quarterly time periods indicates that each of the three types of risks has a significant negative effect on project performance. This finding highlights the practical significance of managing these risks in the federal technology project context. Further, we find that increasing levels of process maturity attenuate the negative effect of project risks on the performance of federal technology projects. However, the attenuation effects are consequential only at high levels of project risks; at low levels of project risk, increasing levels of process maturity can adversely affect project performance. To demonstrate the financial implications of increasing process maturity levels in federal technology projects, we examine the magnitude of project cost savings (and overruns) across different levels of CMMI and project risks. In summary, our study contributes to the sparse literature on public sector operations by addressing the understudied context of federal technology projects, and provides a nuanced examination of the implications of process maturity in managing the risk to performance relationship in such projects.     

基于协同技术学习的组织技术能力提升机理研究

在对现有技术学习理论简要介绍和评述的基础上,本文从糸统角度出发,提出协同技术学习的概念,把协同技术学习界定为知识积累和知识应用两个子过程,两者协同发展,包括学习主体、学习内容、学习源和学习方式的协同,技术能力的提升正是在其协同发展基础上实现的。文章从静态和动态两个角度,分析了协同技术学习提升技术能力的机理。     

绿色技术创新能力、产品差异化与企业竞争力——基于节能环保产业上市公司的分析

本文以2011-2016年间我国节能环保产业上市公司为研究样本,实证检验绿色技术创新能力、产品差异化与企业竞争力的关系,同时分析企业规模对绿色技术创新能力与企业竞争力关系的调节作用。研究发现,绿色技术创新能力对企业竞争力有显著的正向影响,绿色技术创新能力的各个组分对企业竞争力的影响存在差异。产品差异化在绿色技术创新能力与企业竞争力的关系中发挥中介作用,产品差异化在绿色技术创新能力的四个组分与企业竞争力的关系中的作用存在差异,此外,企业规模在绿色技术创新能力与企业竞争力关系中具有正向的调节作用,产品差异化在企业规模的调节作用中起中介作用。本文的研究为解读绿色技术创新能力影响企业竞争力的内在机理提供了一个有价值的新角度。     

Critical success factors in managing modular production design: Six company case studies in Hong Kong, China, and Singapore

Many researchers have explored the advantages of modular product design, its design methods and its effects on product performance. Modular design is, for example, required for product platform, mass customization and postponement in order to achieve greater product variety and differentiation. However, a few empirical studies explicitly examine how to coordinate modular product design in a managerial way. This paper addresses it by conducting multiple case studies with six companies which have successfully adopted modular product design for five years. Seven critical factors are explored in the management of modular product design. These are pre-defined product advantage, selectively used design rules, module definition, system integration, technological newness, internal communication, and supplier and customer involvement. While most of the literature studies the technical dimension of modular design within a firm, this study focuses on the managerial side across the supply chain. It gives new insights on how to manage modular product design and proposes future research opportunities.     

The Role of Project and Organizational Context in Managing High‐tech R&D Projects

High‐tech organizations often struggle to manage different types of R&D projects. Evidence from research and practice suggests that managers frequently categorize and manage projects based on the extent of change triggered in product, process, technology, and market dimensions. However, this can create challenges in high‐tech organizations. This study investigates how high‐tech organizations manage R&D projects based on their learning goals. First, we argue for the benefits of categorizing R&D projects based on the degree of exploration and exploitation learning goals. A qualitative case study from four high‐tech business units involving 10 R&D projects helps understand the different types of projects based on their learning goals. The case study shows that R&D projects in high‐tech organizations typically fall into three categories based on their learning goals: Radical innovation projects, Incremental innovation projects, and Hybrid projects. Second, we iterate between literature and evidence from our qualitative data to theorize how project context and organizational context affect project performance depending on the type of project. The data for the empirical analysis come from a multilevel survey of 110 R&D projects across 34 high‐tech business units. Results show the importance of designing project and organizational context differently for the three types of R&D projects. Collectively, this study offers a new perspective on how to manage high‐tech R&D projects.     

An Integrated Framework for Measuring Product Development Performance in High Technology Industries

We present an integrated framework for measuring product development performance. The framework consists of a three stage model for exploring the relationships between metrics used by design, manufacturing, marketing functions, and overall commercial success. Using a cross‐sectional survey of 383 product development professionals working on 38 product development projects in the high‐tech electronic assembled goods manufacturing sector, we provide empirical evidence of the proposed framework. The findings indicate that in the high‐tech manufacturing sector (1) commercial success of new product development projects is primarily determined by market share, (2) gain in market share is primarily driven by lower unit cost and not by technical performance, and (3) reduction in unit cost is primarily driven by the increased speed of new product development and not by the R&D budget. The study failed to identify any significant association between R&D budget and technical performance, and development speed and technical performance.     

中国汽车产业环境技术创新影响因素实证研究

基于动态计量模型,以我国汽车产业为对象,从产品创新和过程创新2个方面实证研究了环境政策、技术进步、市场结构、产业特征对汽车产业环境技术创新的影响。结果表明,环境政策中的环境影响评估制度和污染限期治理制度、技术进步中的R&D投入和人力资本存量、市场结构中的产品销售利润率与环境技术创新存在长期均衡关系,且长期均衡对产品创新短期波动的影响不大,仅有污染限期治理和R&D投入的长期均衡对过程创新短期波动的影响显著。此外,环境影响评估制度、R&D投入、人力资本存量、产品销售利润率均为产品创新和过程创新的格兰杰原因,而污染限期治理是产品创新的格兰杰原因,过程创新是污染限期治理的格兰杰原因。     

考虑成本共担的复杂产品零部件协同创新Stackelberg优化研究

在技术不断升级改造背景下,复杂产品作为高端装备产品的代表,它的工艺技术创新水平在一定程度上代表了制造业的技术水平。由数以万计的零部件所组成的复杂产品在生产研发过程中,零部件的生产创新直接决定复杂产品的生产创新,而如何从供应链角度去研究零部件生产协同问题来实现复杂产品的生产协同成为难点。本文基于复杂产品协同制造模式,从主制造商激励视角出发,考虑零部件的工艺创新和装备创新,研究主制造商成本共担机制下复杂产品零部件的协同创新问题。首先,为激励供应商进行创新积极性,通过设计创新程度相关参数,依据零部件工艺创新程度和装配创新程度构建了复杂产品生产函数,探讨了主制造商成本共担激励策略,建立了基于成本共担协同创新Stackelberg博弈模型;其次,借助于成本共担与不共担情形下对比研究了最优创新程度水平以及主制造商最佳成本共担比例;最后,借助某商用飞机电力支持系统进行数值验证,结果表明：供应商最优成本共担比例和工艺弹性和装配弹性呈正比,最优工艺创新程度和装配创新程度与工艺弹性和装配弹性呈反比例关系,当弹性在一定范围变动时,成本共担要比成本不共担要好;当弹性超过变动范围时,则不再分担成本进行激励。本文系统分析了成本分担下零部件创新程度问题,为供应商和主制造商长期激励合作提供了一定决策依据。     

Managing the introduction of new technology

Most of the existing literature on the implications of new technology focuses on either its ‘impact’ or the social choices that lie behind strategies for its introduction into work organisations. The problems of managing the implementation of new technology have yet to be extensively examined despite this being one of the most critical aspects in the process of technological change. The findings from two case studies are presented which show how managers in the organisations concerned developed contrasting approaches to the problem of implementation in the context of opportunities and constraints presented by product markets and technological advance. Similarities between the two approaches are identified, in particular the role played by top management support in facilitating the acceptance of the new technology. The argument that management is able to develop a single unitary strategy towards the introduction of new technology is rejected in favour of a view of managerial actions as a series of flexible and changing sub-strategies associated with different stages in the process of change.