Gender relations,demographic change and the prospects for sustainable development in Africa

The author explores the interrelationships between gender relations, demographic change, and Africa's prospects for sustainable development in the larger context of the ecological, economic, and sociopolitical forces which shape living conditions in the region. To make the analysis manageable, the author adopts the concept of sustainable development as the organizing and selecting principle in the exploration of issues central to the development of his argument. Rapid and uneven population growth is just one of many factors implicated in Africa's econo-environmental crisis. However, its strong synergism with gender relations and the limited scope for overcoming the externally derived problems suggests that a transition to lower fertility and higher women's status may be Africa's most realistic road to sustainable development. Discussion is presented under the following headings: concept of sustainable development as an analytical framework, salient aspects of Africa's demography, environmental degradation in Africa, economic stagnation and decline, gender considerations common to the key aspects of Africa's development crisis, and movement toward an enhanced prospect for sustainable development in Africa.     

World population trends in 1960-70

The rapid rise in world population for the 4 periods 1950-1955, 1955 -1960, 1960-1965, and 1965-1970 is mainly due to a decline in the crude death rate from 24/1000 in 1950-1955 to 16.1/1000 in 1965-1970. 1950 was a turning-point in mortality rates because for the first time public health measures became widely available in less developed regions. These less developed regions contained 63.4% of the world population in 1930, 65.5% in 1950, and 70.0% in 1970. World population increased by 22% in 1960-1970, compared to 20% in 1950-1960, which was twice as much as the 20% registered for the 20 years 1930-1950. Developed regions contributed a 14% increase between 1950-1960 and 12% between 1960-1970; in less developed regions the increases were 23% and 27% respectively. Demographic conferences have begun to neglect mortality, but this is still a vital part of total population growth. Evidence is that the mortality decline in less developed countries is beginning to level off so that previous population projections may not be reached. What decline has been seen in crude birth rates in less developed countries is largely attributable to declines in East Asia, notably in the People's Republic of China, Republic of Korea, and other Chinese or Chinese culture-related populations, as well as some of the smaller Latin American countries and some small islands off Africa. Such demographic giants as India, Indonesia, Pakistan, and sub-Saharan Africa have shown little change. In areas with high fertility there are more mothers under age 20 and more births to women over age 35 while in low-fertility areas births are concentrated in the 20-35 year groups. An interesting example is Japan which has 50% of its births to mothers 25-29 years of age. Less developed countries have a larger proportion o f the population under age 14 while developed countries which have had lower fertility for a number of years have larger numbers in the older age groups. In less developed areas the greatest burdens are associated with child-rearing while welfare for the aged is the great concern in the more developed areas of the world. The great trend toward urbanization in all parts of the world means that the population problems commanding greatest attention are those associated with large and fast-growing cities.     

The impact of rapid population growth,expanding urbanisation,and other factors on development in sub-Saharan Africa: the contrasting responses of Tanzania and Kenya

This article analyzes the impact of the twin factors of rapid population growth and expanding urbanization on social and economic development in sub-Saharan Africa and compares policies that have been developed in Tanzania and Kenya in response to these factors. The principal consequences of overpopulation and overurbanization have been economic stagnation and physical and cultural malaise in urban population centers. Between 1960-80, per capita incomes in 19 countries of sub-Saharan Africa grew by less than 1%/year and 15 countries recorded a negative rate of growth in per capita income during the 1970s. Urban populations have increased at at overall rate of 6%/year as sub-Saharan Africans have migrated to cities in search of employment. Few national governments in the region have formulated longterm strategies to deal effectively with this double-faceted development constraint or have integrated new urban populations into the national economy. tanzania's development strategy is focused on the goals of socialism, rural development, and self-reliance. Urban development has remained a residual item in Tanzania's national development process, despite the fact that the urban population increased from 5.7% of the total population in 1967 to 12.7% in 1978 and is projected to comprise 24.7% by the year 2000. In contrast, Kenya, whose proportion of urban population increased from 9% to 15% between 1962 and 1979, has pursued an urban-focused development strategy. The strong urban-rural linkages of the economy have focused migration to the secondary towns. The national development plan includes urban spatial, employment, and investment policies. Although this plan constitutes a good basis for future planning, the magnitude of the urban problem is beyond the capabilities of the central government and requires the development of local capabilities.     

Education and fertility: policy implications for developing countries

Efforts to reduce the high rates of population growth in Africa are largely hampered by a social and political climate which does not recognize high birth rates as a problem. Only 2 countries (Kenya and Ghana) are actively antinatalist officially, the rest being actively pronatalist or taking no firm stand. The author argues that support for family planning will grow only when governments support mass education programs. A framework showing the linkages between fertility and formal education is developed. On the demographic level, pursuit of higher levels of education delays entry into marriage, directly and through pursuit of occupations which do not encourage early marriage. Lowered infant mortality through improved utilization of modern health care by the educated also leads to reduced fertility. On the sociocultural level, migration to urban centers among the educated leads to new cultural norms and constraints on large families from the pursuit of modern careers. The author asserts that the inverse relation between education and fertility is well known, and that national support for mass education is needed to speed economic development, change the position of women and alter peoples' values.     

Population Growth and the Distribution of Household Income: The Case of Brazil*

Special tabulations of the 1970 census of Brazil are used to estimate fertility and mortality rates by level of household income. Projections to the year 2000 indicate that the poor population will grow substantially faster than the rich population. Projections that simulate upward social mobility and declines in fertility and mortality levels do not alter this conclusion. Differential rates of natural increase by income strata are shown to contribute to an increase in the proportion of the population in the lower income strata, by the end of the century. Although these differentials could be reduced by a more equitable distribution of income, the style of development in Brazil has yielded only a small increase in the real income of the poor. Analysis of the income elasticity of fertility and mortality at different levels of household earnings suggest that this pattern of economic growth will further widen differences in the rate of natural increase by socioeconomic strata. The analysis of the demographic behavior of population subgroups questions the assumption that a lower rate of aggregate population growth in developing countries necessarily contributes to a more equitable distribution of income.     

Immigrant and native fertility during the 1980s: adaptation and expectations for the future

Many immigrants have come to the US since the mid-1960s. The demographic effects of this phenomenon may be seen in both the changing racial and ethnic composition of the population and in the increasing contribution of immigration to sustaining population growth. Given the current below replacement level of fertility in the country, US population growth depends increasingly upon the entry of new immigrants each year and their subsequent fertility. Over much of the 20th century, immigrants had consistently lower fertility than native-born women. This situation changed, however, since the 1970s with the arrival of large numbers of immigrants from countries with high fertility. Studies based upon the US census have shown that, despite considerable variation according to country of origin, recent immigrants have higher fertility on average than native-born women. Moreover, the gap between immigrant and native fertility levels appears to have increased during the 1980s. By 1986, immigrant women aged 18-44 had about one-quarter child more than similarly aged native-born women. This article compares both the fertility behavior and expectations for future childbearing of foreign and native-born women in the US with the goal of analyzing the sources of the growing fertility gap between immigrant and native women, and exploring the extent to which immigrants adapt their fertility once in the US. Data are drawn from the 1980 US Census and the 1986 and 1988 June Current Population Surveys. The author found that the immigrant-native fertility gap increased during the 1980s, not because immigrant fertility increased, but because fertility dropped at a faster rate for natives than for immigrants. The relatively high fertility of immigrants compared to natives can be explained by compositional differences with respect to age, education, income, and ethnicity. The two analyses of adaptation, however, yielded different results. The synthetic cohort analysis, which traced the fertility behavior of a fixed cohort of immigrants during the 1980s, found little evidence of adaptation or assimilation, except for immigrants from southeast Asia. On the other hand, the analysis of fertility expectations suggests that although immigrants expect to have higher fertility than similar natives, they tend to adapt their fertility goals over time, both within and across generations.     

Female Relationships and Demographic Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper examines possible ways in which female relationships can affect demographic outcomes within the context of an extended family structure in sub-Saharan Africa. The level of collaboration and competition that exists among coresident women is likely to have an impact on fertility through changes in birth spacing and stopping behavior. In addition, the extent of collaboration could be a contributing factor in the survival chances of infants and young children. Given the multitude of ethnic groups found on the African continent, the paper also addresses the independent and interactive roles of culture. The paper ends with a discussion of theoretical and methodological implications for demographic research and suggestions for further study.     

Information society and digital divide in South Africa: results of longitudinal surveys

Integration into the information society implies that information plays an increasingly important role in all sectors of society and holds distinct social and economic benefits. Discourses on the information society are, however, also associated with the digital divide and inequalities in access to and use of information and communication technologies (ICTs). Within sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa is often regarded as one of the most information-integrated societies due to widespread mobile phone ownership, among other things. However, while ICT access has been emphasized, research also points to the role of demographic, socio-economic and cultural factors such as ethnicity, income, education and gender. This article discusses the results of questionnaire surveys conducted by Afrobarometer among probability South African samples in 2008 and 2011. The results indicate that individual Internet use and mobile Internet access were lower than estimated in the literature. Furthermore, gender gaps, as well as considerable gaps between population groups and educational levels, were found in Internet and computer use, mobile ownership and access to mobile Internet and accessing news via the Internet. Conclusions regarding strategies for bridging the digital divide and integrating South Africa into the information society are discussed.     

Evaluating a basic-needs strategy and population policies: the BACHUE approach

The BACHUE model, a dynamic simulation technique developed within the International Labour Organization's World Employment Program, has been applied to the Philippines. The model simulates behavior and consequences in a number of key areas: fertility, marriage, migration, savings and expenditure, and labor force participation for households and a macro-model for demand, ouput, employment, and income. The design and development of the model are discussed in detail. The model was run for a series of 13 experiments ranging from nationlization of modern sectors, increasing self-employment, movement toward labor-intensive techniques, changes in growth rates of various sectors, and a reduction in fertility by 2% over 1976-1985, an increase over the 1% assumed in the base run. Runs R-2 to R-11 all showed that a change in basic needs is associated with significant declines in fertility, largely because of increasing education and decreasing mortality. Better economic conditions in rural areas also reduced migration. R-13 which examined the effects of a family planning program of moderate size on ultimate fertility, showed that even by year 2000 the effects were small. The population is reduced 5% over the run which assumes negative income tax and government subsidies to poor families but the gain in income per adult is less than 4%. Any real improvement in income as the result of family planning will take 40-50 years to achieve. Economic incentives, on the other hand, have much faster demographic results. The models also show that rural-urban migration is responsive to policy changes. Planners are cautioned that the model is not a picture of the entire range of human behavior but is an adjunct for use in analyzing interaction between policies.     

The role of fertility in achieving Africa's schooling MDGs: Early evidence for sub-Saharan Africa

In theory, declines in national fertility boost schooling by reducing age dependency, but questions remain about the size and catalysts of this dividend. We address these questions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by using a detailed framework and decomposition methods. Results about catalysts suggest that, beyond policy, dividends depend on characteristics of fertility transitions and changes in employment, economic performance, and public commitment to education. Results about the size of Africa's schooling dividends are mixed. On one hand, the annual schooling resource per child grew on average by $73 between 1990 and 2005, with a third of this growth tied to trends in age dependency. Yet despite these nominal gains, Africa lost ground relative to the world partly because age dependency declined even more in other regions. Only after 2105, the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) deadline, will Africa begin to narrow its gap vis-à-vis the world average. Also, dividends are predicted to accrue earlier among countries already having higher enrollments, suggesting that transitions may initially raise schooling inequality across sub-Saharan countries.     

Economic implications of Japan's aging population: a macro-economic demographic modeling approach

This paper utilizes a macroeconomic demographic model to analyze the probable impact of population aging on various public programs in Japan. Rapid fertility decline aided by mortality decline has caused the proportion of the Japanese population aged 65 and over to increase from 4.9% in 1950 to 9.0% in 1980. A population projection based on the 1975 population census assumes a recovery of fertility from a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 1976 to 2.16 in 1980 and a gradual decline to 2.1 by 1987, while an alternative projection assumes a continuing fertility decline to a TFR of 1.65 in 2025. According to these assumptions, in 2025 18.12% to 21.29% of the total population would be aged 65 or over and 38.66% to 43.80% of the working age population would be aged 45-64. A macroeconomic neoclassical growth model with some Keynesian features was formulated to evaluate the future impact of population aging on social security programs. Population changes are transmitted to economic variables in the model through the supply of labor, level of savings, public health care plans, and old-age pension schemes. The simulation experiments included the 2 population projections and 2 alternative production functions, 1 with the quality of labor incorporated and 1 without. The results indicated that, regardless of the population projection and production function used, the growth of the economy is likely to slow to 1 or 0% in the beginning of the next century due to decreased growth of the labor force and a change in its quality due to age-compositional variations. Public health insurance schemes and pension plans will require increasing financial resources as a result of accelerated population aging; depending on the choice of benefit levels, the proportion of national income allocated to them is expected to range from 14%-40% in the year 2010. Per capita gross national product will continue to grow despite decreased economic growth, but savings might be adversely affected if the provision of social insurance benefits continued to increase monotonically. Possible palliative measures would be to change present employment practices or to upgrade the quality of the labor force through vocational training programs for older workers.     

Fluctuations in levels of certain demographic indicators by raions of an oblast

Regional differences in demographic trends in Ryazan Oblast, USSR, are analyzed. Variations in the age and sex structure of the population, marriage and divorce rates, and fertility and abortion rates are identified using 1979 census data as well as records of marriages, births, and abortions for the period 1977-1979.     

Migration from Latin American countries to the United States: the economic,social and reproductive lives of Hispanic female immigrants, 1980

The authors describe the socioeconomic characteristics and fertility patterns of female immigrants from Latin America to the United States, with a focus on reasons for fertility differentials. "Using the one per cent public use sample from the 1970 and 1980 United States census, we first compare changes in socio economic characteristics from 1970 to 1980, and then examine the determinants of fertility of female immigrants to the United States, aged 16-49, from four Latin American areas or countries of birth.... The findings...suggest that there are direct effects of demographic, assimilation, and socioeconomic variables beyond those mediated by the variables in each of these sets. Further, regardless of the model, the effect of the clusters of demographic characteristics is most apparent. Age categories and marital status are the strongest indexed determinants of immigrant fertility.... The effect of education and employment is strong. Among assimilation variables, duration of residence and language ability are significant determinants of Hispanic immigrant fertility." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)     

Demographic consequences of migration trends in Puerto Rico: 1950-1980

"This paper examines the evolution and changes in migration patterns [in Puerto Rico] through the 1970's based on data from the 1980 census. The focus is on demographic consequences of migration, particularly with regard to population growth, redistribution and changing age structure." A final section is concerned with the socioeconomic implications of migration. (summary in FRE, SPA)     

Preliminary analysis of emigration dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa

Migration is so prominent in African history that several observers have concluded that it is a way of life for many Africans. Considerable migration has occurred historically throughout Africa in response to political, economic, religious and security situations, ethnic tensions, and demographic pressures. Patterns, directions, and motivations of migration have been severely affected by the colonial experience which, in turn, has influenced economic, sociocultural, political, and demographic development. Historical and political links between African and colonial countries initially facilitated migration toward the UK, France, Belgium, and later to the US, Canada, and Germany. Under a lengthy recession, however, these Western economies have severely restricted the flow of immigration. This paper discusses the data situation, the economic regime, the demographic regime, the political regime, the micro-macro context, the cultural regime, the ecological setting, political change and uncertainty in South Africa, the intra-African exchange of skilled manpower, and implementing the IOM/UNFPA project in sub-Saharan Africa.     

Who will care for the elderly in China?: A review of the problems caused by China's one-child policy and their potential solutions

China's one child per couple policy (OCP), with its depressive effects on fertility rates, was established in 1979. Since then numerous studies have documented the effects of the OCP on the aging of China's population. The increasing proportion of elderly in China is producing profound social and economic complications that require the development of appropriate policies. This article addresses this issue in a novel way, by focusing on the sandwich generation, i.e., those who oftentimes care for both younger and older generations. Qualitative data recently collected from diverse representatives of this generation are presented in an attempt to personalize the consequences of this demographic shift and to introduce possible solutions for lessening its effects. We determine that in urban areas many possibilities exist, while in rural areas challenges are more urgent given the proportionately larger number of elderly residents and the lack of options.     

The state,refugees and migration in sub-Saharan Africa

Migration and refugee movements could significantly decline in sub-Saharan African countries. However, countries must redistribute meager resources equitably and engage in environmental protection. Refugee and migrant populations have increased in sub-Saharan Africa during 1969-95, from 700,000 to 6.8 million. This study examined the causes of migration and the implications for host countries. Doornbos (1990) identifies the root problem as the partisan nature of African politics and the incapacity to manage ecological degradation. The African state is wholly or partially responsible for the creation of conflicts. Examples abound in Zaire, South Africa, Sudan, Rwanda, Burundi, Somalia, Ethiopia, Liberia, Congo, and Chad. State partisanship is also evident in Angola, Mozambique, Uganda, and Sierra Leone. An estimated 10 million Africans, in 1985, left their homes due to wars, government repression, or the inability of land to support them. In 1994, USAID estimated that 11.6 million Africans in 10 countries were threatened by famine from drought. Environmental degradation has generated conflicts. Africa's marginalized economy results in recession, unemployment, inflation, and distributional conflicts. Democratization has brought conflicts between the state, civil society, and exiles. Refugees face homelessness, poverty, emotional distress, inadequate food, and disease. Host countries face security threats, pressure on limited resources, rebellions from refugees and their involvement with foreign mercenaries, local conflicts between native and refugee populations, and environmental degradation from refugees.     

The relevance of research on emigration dynamics for policy makers in Sub-Saharan Africa

This paper provides an overview of research findings from Phase I for sub-Saharan Africa. Africa varies widely in population size, economic growth and structure, ecology, political systems, religion, and culture. There has been extensive migration and population displacement due to population pressure, poverty, poor economic performances, ethnic conflicts, and abuse of human rights. Economic factors have exacerbated conditions. John Oucho emphasized a need for subregional approaches to refugee flows in the northern parts of eastern Africa, labor migration and refugee flow in the southern parts of eastern Africa, and skilled labor migration from the north to the south and southern Africa. Ethnic composition differs throughout eastern Africa, and population pressure and severe climate changes are challenges to survival strategies. Dominic Milazi focused on labor migration in southern Africa. Sally Findley presented a paper on the population shifts from nine Sahel countries in the interior to coastal areas due to severe climate changes and low agricultural productivity. According to the policy discussion, there is a need to "harmonize" regional and subregional treaties and practices with national laws and administrative practice.     

Foreign Student Emigration to the United States: Pathways of Entry,Demographic Antecedents,and Origin‐Country Contexts

This study uses data from various sources to examine the determinants of trends in international student migration to the United States. Our results highlight the differential contributions to these trends made by various entry pathways. For example, we find that the overall growth was driven by students using visas that offered the least possibility of US employment following the completion of their studies. We also find that overall student migration trends were significantly affected by global demographic changes. For example, student emigration from Europe was negatively affected by declining fertility trends, percentage of youths, and youth population size. In Asia and Africa, contrasting demographic trends explained the substantial student migration increases observed from these regions. Increases in youth population size had a particularly positive effect on student migration in contexts of economic growth. Finally, the analysis finds a declining significance of English language contexts for fueling overall student migration trends.