闭环供应链中制造商与销售商合作创新模型研究

对废旧产品回收再利用既减少环境污染,又能节约社会有用资源,闭环供应链的研究受到学术界的广泛重视。利用生产函数,在稳定型和风险型市场背景下构造了六类非博弈型创新研究和广告合作的二级闭环供应链模型,并采用多种数学方法给出了模型最优解的存在性与求解方法。信息不对称是供应链的重要特点,提高信息共享程度是未来供应链发展的根本趋势。本文首先根据如下假设进行建模,即创新投入能使再制品单位成本降低,广告投入带来废旧产品回收率提高和再制品销售量的增加;其次,模型求最优解过程中强调合作,提出了应制定内部利润分配规则和联合对外行动决策两套契约的供应链管理思想。各成员放弃（至少是减少）内部“斗智斗勇”,按照保证供应链整体利润最大化的原则确定各方的最佳投资额;最后,对模型进行了仿真分析,应用实例说明了在同样市场背景和创新条件下合作比博弈通常能给供应链带来大得多的利润。另外,无论在稳定型还是风险型市场背景下,平等合作与主从合作供应链总利润相同。因此,主企业要尽量对较弱企业进行扶持,提高供应链整体对外竞争能力。     

Employee absence, age and tenure: a study of nonlinear effects and trivariate models

Multiple regression techniques were used to explore the nature of the relationships between age, tenure and absence in 2417 British local government workers drawn from three work groups. The data were collected from organizational records and included measures of both non-certified absence and medically certified absence. Linear and curvilinear associations among age, tenure and absence were examined. The possible moderating or mediating role of tenure in the relationship between age and absence was subsequently analysed. The data revealed linear relationships between age and absence that were negative for non-certified absence and positive for certified absence. In contrast, curvilinear relationships were found between tenure and absence that were U-shaped for noncertified absence and inverse U-shaped for certified absence. Tenure was found to moderate but not to mediate the relationship between age and absence. The implications of the results are discussed in the context of the changing age and career paths of the workforce, and of methodological issues in absence research.     

国家层面规划与政策的监测评估——国家规划与政策的监测评估国际研讨会综述

简要介绍了由国家发展和改革委员会和世界银行于2006年10月25日在北京召开的国家规划与政策的监测评估国际研讨会。对国家层面规划监测评估的基本理论、方法以及世界银行和美国、新西兰、澳大利亚等国的相关经验进行了综述。同时,给出了在会上提出的中国“十一五规划”实施的监测评估的初步框架。     

Job insecurity, coping resources and personality dispositions in occupational strain

This paper presents research on the relationships between the work-related stressor of perceived job insecurity and various indicators of occupational strain, taking into account employees' personality dispositions (trait negative and positive affectivity) and coping resources. Respondents were 222 Australian public servants surveyed during organizational restructuring that involved downsizing and threat to job certainty. The research was formulated within an adaptation of Osipow, Doty, and Spokane's (1985) framework of stress-strain-coping that included the possible direct as well as moderating effects of personality dispositions in reporting occupational strain (Parkes, 1990). Findings from hierarchical regression analyses indicate consistent significant independent effects of personality dispositions, coping resources and perceived job insecurity on various indicators of strain. There was also support for the moderating roles of negative affectivity and self-care in the relation between perceived job insecurity and physical strain. Implications for the role of dispositional factors, especially negative affectivity, and the utility of various coping resources in accounting for occupational strain in times of threatened job security are discussed.     

Risks of Ingestion of Aflatoxin-Contaminated Groundnuts in Benin: Scale Measurements, Beliefs, and Socioeconomic Factors

This study evaluates farmers' beliefs and perceived risks of aflatoxin (AF) on the consumption, production, and marketing of groundnuts. A survey was conducted with 181 farmers in Benin to assess their beliefs of AF effects on the marketing of groundnuts, and finally human and animal health. Awareness and action factors were also evaluated. Relationships of the belief and action factors with socioeconomic variables were evaluated using multiple indicators and multiple causes (MIMIC) models within a socioeconomic framework using a health belief model (HBM). The results indicate that the scale of the various constructs is reliable and the validity conforms to expectations. The unifactorial models developed in this study provide a satisfactory fit with NFl, CFI, and GFI exceeding 0.90. The results reveal that gender, age, and years of experience in farming significantly impact farmers' action regarding the reduction of AF in groundnut production and marketing. Male farmers are more likely to be aware of AF problems in groundnuts and feel more susceptible to the problems than their female counterparts. Gender and education seem to be dominating factors in the perception of barriers to mitigating the effects of AF, and male and older farmers are more likely to perceive the benefits of producing and marketing good quality groundnuts.     

Chaos and Transformation Theories: A Theoretical Analysis with Implications for Organization Theory and Public Management

Chaos and transformation theories have emerged as new currencies in social sciences in general and in systems design and management, and in futuristic studies in particular. This article analyzes chaos and transformation theories in historical and contemporary perspectives, their contributions to social science in general, and organization theory and public management in particular. The notions of chaos and order, change and continuity, and uncertainty and certainty are analyzed along with the growing realization of complexity and non-linear dynamic features of modern organizations and the hard reality of a constant necessity to acquire new knowledge and learn to manage organizations with flexibility and innovation. Finally, the article addresses some of the limitations of chaos theory and outlines a number of implications for organization theory and public management in the age of globalization.     

Search for Yield

We present a model of the relationship between real interest rates, credit spreads, and the structure and risk of the banking system. Banks intermediate between entrepreneurs and investors, and can monitor entrepreneurs' projects. We characterize the equilibrium for a fixed aggregate supply of savings, showing that safer entrepreneurs will be funded by nonmonitoring banks and riskier entrepreneurs by monitoring banks. We show that an increase in savings reduces interest rates and spreads, and increases the relative size of the nonmonitoring banking system and the probability of failure of monitoring banks. We also show that the dynamic version of the model exhibits endogenous boom and bust cycles, and rationalizes the existence of countercyclical risk premia and the connection between low interest rates, tight credit spreads, and the buildup of risks during booms.     

网络环境下服务科学与创新管理研究展望

基于网络环境的服务发展与创新已成为经济发展的新引擎。本文在分析网络环境下服务特征基础上,探讨了其对服务科学与创新管理研究的影响。结合我国社会经济发展对现代服务快速增长的需求,本文提炼了服务科学研究的三类基本科学问题,包括服务价值的内涵与度量,服务资源的要素及其价值生成,和服务关系的界定与形成问题;提出了服务与创新管理的四个重要研究领域,即：服务生态系统的形成与演化,服务资源要素的组织与协调,服务的关联与融合和社会服务运作管理问题。在四个重要研究领域的进一步分析中,论文以一个异质数据服务资源的组织与融合为例,描述了服务资源组织与协调的一个具体问题,说明了已有研究方法解决该问题的困难,和未来该问题研究需要关注的重点;另以平台服务中基于价值和关系的服务定价问题为例,说明服务关联与融合研究的挑战及其未来研究的努力方向。     

“硬件产品+软件服务”视角下的产品定价策略研究——以iOS和Android为例

智能手机通过"硬件产品+软件服务"的方式,影响着越来越多人的生活,如何处理硬件与软件间的关系,已经成为行业亟需妥善处理的问题。通过分析iOS和Android生态系统中,硬件厂商与第三方软件提供商间的关系以及用户对硬件和软件的选择行为,从竞争的角度构建硬件厂商的产品价格优化决策模型,并结合iOS和Android的现实情况和行业发展趋势对模型进行拓展。模型分析结果揭示了硬件免费的基本逻辑：尽管iOS较高的应用内购买服务费会提高用户的软件服务购买成本,使部分用户流失到Android平台,从而降低iOS在软件服务领域的提成收益,在软件服务收益降低的同时,较高的应用内购买服务费会使苹果公司的硬件销售量大幅增加,从而在总体上使苹果公司的收益增加。而Android平台的硬件厂商想要实现对iOS平台硬件产品的逆袭,除了倡导"硬件免费"外,在未来还需要在品牌价值方面有大幅度的超越。     

From strangers to social collectives? Sensemaking and organizing in response to a pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily exposed the inadequacy of established institutions and markets to handle a multidimensional crisis, but it also revealed the spontaneous emergence of social collectives to mitigate some of its consequences. Building upon more than 600 responses from an open-ended survey and follow-up qualitative interviews, we seek to understand the spontaneous formation of social collectives in neighborhoods during the initial global lockdown. Applying the sensemaking lens, we theorize the process that prevented the collapse of sensemaking; motivated neighbors to comply with the pandemic-related restrictions; and inspired the development of collective initiatives and the sharing of resources, experiences, and a feeling of belonging. In doing so, we identify mechanisms that allow distributed sensemaking and organizing for resilience: widely shared and accepted cues and frames, simultaneous enactment of practices, embeddedness, visibility of actions, and sense of community. Contrary to the literature on local community organizing and entrepreneurship, which emphasizes the importance of shared values and beliefs, we reveal how the abovementioned mechanisms enable social collectives to emerge and build resilience in times of crisis, even in the absence of pre-existing ties and physical and social isolation. Implications for sensemaking, resilience, organization studies, and community psychology are discussed.     

The moderating role of social support in Karasek's job strain model

This paper examines whether social support is a boundary-determining criterion in the job strain model of Karasek (1979). The particular focus is the extent to which different sources of social support, work overload and task control influence job satisfaction, depersonalization and supervisor assessments of work performance. Hypotheses are tested using prospective survey data from 80 clerical staff in a university setting. Results revealed 3-way interactions among levels of support (supervisor, co-worker, non-work), perceived task control and work overload on levels of work performance and employee adjustment (self-report). After controlling for levels of negative affect in all analyses, there was evidence that high levels of supervisor support mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of job satisfaction and reduced reported levels of depersonalization. Moreover, high levels of non-work support and co-worker support also mitigated against the negative effects of high strain jobs on levels of work performance. The results are discussed in terms of the importance of social support networks both at, and beyond, the work context.     

Costs of Health Damage from Atmospheric Emissions of Toxic Metals: Part 1—Methods and Results

Significant quantities of toxic metals are emitted to the air by the incineration of waste, as well as by the combustion of coal and oil. To optimize the regulations for their emissions one needs to know the cost of their damage. That requires an impact pathway analysis, with realistic dispersion models, exposure‐response functions, and monetary values. In this article we explain the method and assumptions and present results for arsenic, cadmium, mercury, and lead, the most important toxic metals in terms of damage cost. We also estimate their contribution to the damage cost of waste incineration and electric power from coal for typical situations in Europe. The damage costs of As, Cd, and Pb are much higher than previous estimates because of a large number of new epidemiological studies, implying more and more serious health effects than what had been known before. New cost‐benefit studies for the abatement of toxic metal emissions are advisable. The discussion of the epidemiological studies and the derivation of exposure‐response functions are presented in two companion articles, one for As and Cd, the other for Hg and Pb.     

The governance of social enterprises: Mission drift and accountability challenges in hybrid organizations

We examine the challenges of governance facing organizations that pursue a social mission through the use of market mechanisms. These hybrid organizations, often referred to as social enterprises, combine aspects of both charity and business at their core. In this paper we distinguish between two ideal types of such hybrids, differentiated and integrated, and we conceptualize two key challenges of governance they face: accountability for dual performance objectives and accountability to multiple principal stakeholders. We revisit the potential and limitations of recently introduced legal forms to address these challenges. We then theorize about the importance of organizational governance and the role of governing boards in particular, in prioritizing and aligning potentially conflicting objectives and interests in order to avoid mission drift and to maintain organizational hybridity in social enterprises. Finally, we discuss future research directions and the implications of this work for rethinking traditional categories of organizations, namely business and charity.     

Deliberative Disjunction: Expert and Public Understanding of Outcome Uncertainty

Many environmental and risk management decisions are made jointly by technical experts and members of the public. Frequently, their task is to select from among management alternatives whose outcomes are subject to varying degrees of uncertainty. Although it is recognized that how this uncertainty is interpreted can significantly affect decision‐making processes and choices, little research has examined similarities and differences between expert and public understandings of uncertainty. We present results from a web‐based survey that directly compares expert and lay interpretations and understandings of different expressions of uncertainty in the context of evaluating the consequences of proposed environmental management actions. Participants responded to two hypothetical but realistic scenarios involving trade‐offs between environmental and other objectives and were asked a series of questions about their comprehension of the uncertainty information, their preferred choice among the alternatives, and the associated difficulty and amount of effort. Results demonstrate that experts and laypersons tend to use presentations of numerical ranges and evaluative labels differently; interestingly, the observed differences between the two groups were not explained by differences in numeracy or concerns for the predicted environmental losses. These findings question many of the usual presumptions about how uncertainty should be presented as part of deliberative risk‐ and environmental‐management processes.     

跨部门金融机构系统重要性和共振效应的动态演化研究——基于中国A股市场的实证

金融机构由于其规模性和关联性对金融系统稳定有着举足轻重的作用。本文基于金融机构异质性风险下的收益,通过Granger因果引导关系构建金融部门的关联网络,从机构中心性、关联性和系统紧密性分析不同市场状态下银行、证券、保险和信托部门内和跨部门间的关联网络动态演化,并在关联分析的基础上引入规模指标,对金融机构的系统重要性进行综合评价。研究发现,我国金融系统的整体性和关联性日趋增强,系统内各部门之间和单一部门内金融机构联系都日趋紧密,跨部门间系统共振效应不断增强;银行和证券部门的影响力显著高于保险和信托部门,银行和保险部门的Granger影响力在熊市时相对增强,牛市时相对减弱,证券和信托部门的影响力则恰好相反;从多角度分析金融共振效应,最终给出我国金融机构系统重要性的分层级评价。结果不仅可以为金融机构的监管和系统性风险的控制提供参考依据,也可以对资本市场投资提供借鉴意义。     

Systems Resilience for Multihazard Environments: Definition,Metrics, and Valuation for Decision Making

The United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction reported that the 2011 natural disasters, including the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan, resulted in $366 billion in direct damages and 29,782 fatalities worldwide. Storms and floods accounted for up to 70% of the 302 natural disasters worldwide in 2011, with earthquakes producing the greatest number of fatalities. Average annual losses in the United States amount to about $55 billion. Enhancing community and system resilience could lead to massive savings through risk reduction and expeditious recovery. The rational management of such reduction and recovery is facilitated by an appropriate definition of resilience and associated metrics. In this article, a resilience definition is provided that meets a set of requirements with clear relationships to the metrics of the relevant abstract notions of reliability and risk. Those metrics also meet logically consistent requirements drawn from measure theory, and provide a sound basis for the development of effective decision‐making tools for multihazard environments. Improving the resiliency of a system to meet target levels requires the examination of system enhancement alternatives in economic terms, within a decision‐making framework. Relevant decision analysis methods would typically require the examination of resilience based on its valuation by society at large. The article provides methods for valuation and benefit‐cost analysis based on concepts from risk analysis and management.     

Fusion of Intelligence Information: A Bayesian Approach

The attack that occurred on September 11, 2001 was, in the end, the result of a failure to detect and prevent the terrorist operations that hit the United States. The U.S. government thus faces at this time the daunting tasks of first, drastically increasing its ability to obtain and interpret different types of signals of impending terrorist attacks with sufficient lead time and accuracy, and second, improving its ability to react effectively. One of the main challenges is the fusion of information, from different sources (U.S. or foreign), and of different types (electronic signals, human intelligence. etc.). Fusion thus involves two very distinct and separate issues: communications, i.e., ensuring that the different U.S. and foreign intelligence agencies communicate all relevant and accurate information in a timely fashion and, perhaps more difficult, merging the content of signals, some "sharp" and some "fuzzy," some dependent and some independent into useful information. The focus of this article is on the latter issue, and on the use of the results. In this article, I present a classic probabilistic Bayesian model sometimes used in engineering risk analysis, which can be helpful in the fusion of information because it allows computation of the posterior probability of an event given its prior probability (before the signal is observed) and the quality of the signal characterized by the probabilities of false positive and false negative. Experience suggests that the nature of these errors has been sometimes misunderstood; therefore, I discuss the validity of several possible definitions.     

产业共性技术产学研协同研发策略的微分博弈研究

针对产业共性技术产学研协同研发问题,本文以单个研究机构（大学、科研院所）和单个企业为研究对象,通过构建微分博弈模型,运用HJB方程分别分析了三种产业共性技术研发博弈情形下研究机构和企业各自的最优研发努力程度、最优研发收益、双方最优研发总收益以及企业对研究机构的研发投入补贴。通过对三种博弈结果的比较分析发现：（1）研发投入补贴作为一种激励策略,可促进研究机构研发努力程度、研究机构与企业各自研发收益以及双方研发总收益的提升;（2）协同合作博弈情形下研究机构与企业各自研发努力程度、各自研发收益和双方研发总收益均优于非合作情形。为协调研究机构与企业的产业共性技术协同研发行为,通过讨论收益分配系数α的取值范围进而分析产业共性技术产学研协同研发的收益协调机制。最后,通过算例分析验证了理论推导的结果。     

On-shift and daily variations in self-report and performance measures in rotating-shift and permanent night nurses

An intensive study was conducted of the influence of type of shift system, type of shift, and time-into-shift on a battery of on-shift and daily measures obtained from 61 female nurses over a 28-day period. Thirty-two rotating-shift nurses and 28 permanent night nurses recorded data on a hand-held computer at the start and end of each day, and every 2-h during their shifts. The measures included a sleep diary, self-ratings of mood, workload, and personal disruption, and two cognitive performance tasks. These results suggest that the permanent night nurses were no worse off and for some measures were actually better off than the rotating-shift nurses after controlling for differences in age and shiftwork experience; the night-shift was problematic for the rotating-shift nurses but so was the early shift; mood deteriorated and reaction time got slower over the course of the night-shift but extra long responses (which may correspond to lapses of attention) and rated workload were lower on the night-shift. The relatively large number of consecutive night-shifts worked by the rotating-shift nurses, the uneven distribution of workload between shifts, and the long night-shift may have contributed to these results.