收益公布效应的实证研究

股票市场的有效性研究是金融经济学的一个重要基础 .国外对此作了广泛深入的研究 ,其中事件研究方法是一个重要的方法 ,其普遍适应性导致了它的广泛应用 .目前对我国股票市场有效性的实证研究尚处于起步阶段 ,本文试图采用事件研究方法主要针对上海股市进行收益公布的实证研究 .本文研究的经验结果对我国股市的半强式有效性提供了一个重要支持     

Operational research at the National Defence Research Institute of Sweden (FOA)

This paper gives an account of an institute for applied research so as to enable comparisons to be made with other institutes: such comparisons need not be limited to defence establishments. In elaborating the methodology of the institute its local concepts are applied, a conceptualisation which has proven useful outside defence [I]. Defence methodology still creates civilian spin-off.     

STOCK MARKET RESEARCH METHODOLOGY: A CASE FOR THE SYSTEMS APPROACH

Few stock market “truths” are known despite extensive research by academicians, investment advisors, and investors. This state is hypothesized to be a result of an emphasis on external or “black box” methods of inquiry. The use of internal methods or systems analysis is suggested as the way to bring about new insights into the stock market. In this article, the stock market is described as a system. Methods to study this system, ranging on a continuum with external and internal poles, are presented. The danger of heavy reliance on external methodologies and the need for a more balanced methodology is illustrated with reference to the “random-walk hypothesis.” Finally, the advantages of internal methodologies are detailed.     

Assessing the lead market potential of countries for innovation projects

This paper presents an approach to assessing the potential of countries to lead the global adoption of an innovation and to set a global product or process standard. It can be observed that the specific design of an innovation diffuses worldwide after it has been adopted in a single country. We suggest that there are nation-specific characteristics that increase the likelihood that a locally preferred innovation design will become successful in other countries, too. Once users in a market that has lead market characteristics have adopted a specific innovation design, the possibility increases that users in other countries subsequently adopt it as well. We present a lead market concept for the development of global innovation designs. By focusing on the design of the innovation that responds to the preferences within the lead market, a company can leverage the success experienced in the lead market for a global market launch. In order to follow a lead market strategy of new product development, it is necessary to assess the lead market potential of countries before an innovation is developed and tested in the market. We use an indicator-based methodology that approximates the lead market attributes of countries. The assessment methodology is applied to two innovation projects at the truck division of DaimlerChrysler.     

Solving a process engineer's manpower-planning problem using analytic hierarchy process

The role of a process engineer (PE) is vital in a high-technology organization. Generic manpower-planning approaches, such as regression or mathematical programming methods, are difficult to apply to PE manpower-planning problem. A simple production-volume to staffing-level ratio did not properly reflect the required PE staffing needs. This research considered both production volume and complexity to plan the required PE staffing level. Production complexity is an indicator of the amount of PE attendance time, and this is innovatively evaluated in the present study using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). A case study is used to illustrate the proposed methodology.     

Engineering change: A theoretical assessment and a case study

The competitive playground where nowadays firms struggle to survive has rapidly become unforeseeable: product life cycle has shrunk, becoming even shorter than in the past, and world-wide market is suffering for a strong customer differentiation which led to an increasingly wide product mix. In this industrial environment, the engineering change process is getting more and more attention throughout the branches of industry, as it appears as a critical process which seeps into the operations management core, thus influencing the overall firm's performances. A brief state-of-the-art in the area of engineering change is firstly presented. Then a proposal of classification and a new methodology for an effective engineering change process management are suggested. The new proposed methodology has been successfully applied to a real-life manufacturing system and the related case study is reported at the end of the paper.     

CDS and rating announcements: changing signaling during the crisis?

In parallel with the development of credit derivatives market, researchers have begun to explore the relationship between Credit Default Swap (CDS) market and rating events. Many papers, via classical event-study methodology, show that CDS market is able to signal future negative rating events announced by credit rating agencies. In this work, we incorporate into the event-study methodology the ability of Markov switching models in modeling state-dependent means and variances. This approach allows to get over the drawbacks of the classical methodology, which ignores the heteroscedasticity and volatility clustering often affecting financial time series. The proposed methodology is applied to study the reactions of CDS quotes to reviews for downgrading and effective downgradings announced by the three major credit rating agencies (Fitch Ratings, Moody’s, Standard and Poor’s), in order to examine if and to what extent CDS market anticipates announcements related with a company’s creditworthiness. The analysis, focusing mainly on volatility, is performed on two periods, 2004–2006 and 2007–2009, in order to verify whether a change in the signaling power of CDS quotes can be ascribed to recent financial turmoils.     

Measuring the Congruence Between Market Requirements and Manufacturing: A Methodology and Illustration*

This paper presents a measurement methodology, based on existing research in the manufacturing strategy and general strategy areas, for evaluating the congruence between market needs and manufacturing plant capabilities. The proposed methodology has several important advantages over current approaches. First, the methodology uses available data and statistical techniques to measure market-manufacturing congruence. As a result, it is not dependent on assumptions about “classic” process choices. Second, the proposed methodology can evaluate the strategic fit between market needs and manufacturing in light of one or more performance criteria. Third, the methodology can be used to derive scalar measures of market-manufacturing congruence, allowing users to evaluate congruence for a large number of products, customers, or market segments. The theoretical basis, research objectives and major steps of the methodology are discussed, followed by an illustrative example from a North American manufacturer. Finally, the applicability of the methodology to a wide range of strategic manufacturing decisions is discussed.     

Sustained Monopolistic Business Relationships: An Interdisciplinarity Case

Business‐to‐business relationships within sustained monopolies, such as those within UK defence procurement, have received scant attention by management researchers. This is unusual because under these market circumstances there appear to be few incentives to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes despite their strategic policy importance. This paper argues that an understanding of the monopolistic environment using a transaction cost economics theoretical framework and supply‐chain management, relationship marketing and transaction cost economics concepts provides an innovative, interdisciplinarity approach to solving this problem as well as testing aspects of these disciplines empirically in a novel area. This paper describes the results from a substantial research project to test this hypothesis in the UK defence procurement situation. It reveals a number of key dynamics within the sustained monopolistic relationships surveyed and suggests considerable potential for further research.     

A MARKET UTILITY‐BASED MODEL FOR CAPACITY SCHEDULING IN MASS SERVICES

Only a small set of employee scheduling articles have considered an objective of profit or contribution maximization, as opposed to the traditional objective of cost (including opportunity costs) minimization. In this article, we present one such formulation that is a market utility‐based model for planning and scheduling in mass services (MUMS). MUMS is a holistic approach to market‐based service capacity scheduling. The MUMS framework provides the structure for modeling the consequences of aligning competitive priorities and service attributes with an element of the firm's service infrastructure. We developed a new linear programming formulation for the shift‐scheduling problem that uses market share information generated by customer preferences for service attributes. The shift‐scheduling formulation within the framework of MUMS provides a business‐level model that predicts the economic impact of the employee schedule. We illustrated the shift‐scheduling model with empirical data, and then compared its results with models using service standard and productivity standard approaches. The result of the empirical analysis provides further justification for the development of the market‐based approach. Last, we discuss implications of this methodology for future research.     

Macroeconomic Determinants of Equilibrium Unemployment Insurance

This paper proposes a new modeling strategy as regards the definition of an optimal level of unemployment benefits. While the traditional methodology privileges labor market equilibrium to derive optimal employment, wage and unemployment benefit levels, we present a model in which the optimal level of unemployment benefits is a function of the government’s macroeconomic objectives in terms of inflation and output fluctuations. In a second stage, the model allows for the investigation of unemployment insurance effects on labor market equilibrium.     

An Alternative FMEA Method for Simple and Accurate Ranking of Failure Modes

Failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) is a methodology for prioritizing actions to mitigate the effects of failures in products and processes. Although originally used by product designers, FMEA is currently more widely used in industry in Six Sigma quality improvement efforts. Two prominent criticisms of the traditional application of FMEA are that the risk priority number (RPN) used to rank failure modes is an invalid measure according to measurement theory, and that the RPN does not weight the three decision criteria used in FMEA. Various methods have been proposed to mitigate these concerns, including many using fuzzy logic. We develop a new ranking method in this article using a data‐elicitation technique. Furthermore, we develop an efficient means of eliciting data to reduce the effort associated with the new method. Subsequently, we conduct an experimental study to evaluate that proposed method against the traditional method using RPN and against an approach using fuzzy logic.     

Decision support tool for lean product and process development

Lean and concurrent engineering (CE) are widely acknowledged business process improvement strategies. These strategies can improve processes, reduce costs, and cut waste enabling organisations to remain competitive. Lean manufacturing offers an enterprise-wide methodology that improves reliability and flexibility while reducing lead-times and inventory carrying costs. Companies in manufacturing and service sectors are focusing on integrating lean manufacturing methodology with other applications, so that, all their systems and processes are aligned. This article proposes a CE framework based on application of information technology and object-oriented methodology for lean manufacturing. This approach expected to give manufacturing companies an extra edge in today's competitive market. A case study is presented in this article to demonstrate the effectiveness of CE framework in a machine tool manufacturing company. CE practice was adopted for new products, to align the systems and processes of the company. Product development lead-time was found to decrease by more than 50% compared to similar development projects carried out by the company. The need for rework was found to be negligible and the development cost was reduced considerably.     

Product Positioning Using a Self‐Organizing Map and the Rings of Influence

In this article, we propose a new product positioning method based on the neural network methodology of a self‐organizing map. The method incorporates the concept of rings of influence, where a firm evaluates individual consumers and decides on the intensity to pursue a consumer, based on the probability that this consumer will purchase a competing product. The method has several advantages over earlier work. First, no limitations are imposed on the number of competing products and second, the method can position multiple products in multiple market segments. Using simulations, we compare the new product positioning method with a quasi‐Newton method and find that the new method always approaches the best solution obtained by the quasi‐Newton method. The quasi‐Newton method, however, is dependent on the initial positions of the new products, with the majority of cases ending in a local optimum. Furthermore, the computational time required by the quasi‐Newton method increases exponentially, while the time required by the new method is small and remains almost unchanged, when the number of new products positioned increases. We also compute the expected utility that a firm will provide consumers by offering its products. We show that as the intensity with which a firm pursues consumers increases, the new method results in near‐optimal solutions in terms of market share, but with higher expected utility provided to consumers when compared to that obtained by a quasi‐Newton method. Thus, the new method can serve as a managerial decision‐making tool to compare the short‐term market share objective with the long‐term expected utility that a firm will provide to consumers, when it positions its products and intensifies its effort to attract consumers away from competition.     

The magic matrix as a smart machine evaluator: Machine performance measurement,level of competitiveness

Today's competitive environment compels companies to be the best at the work they do. Machining efficiency establishes the plant level of performance and thus the ability to compete in the market. However, as product mix changes, and new machines possessing more and better capabilities are introduced, machining efficiency varies over time. Therefore, continuous evaluation of machine fitness for product mix has to be made. This is a huge task and is seldom done due to a lack of efficient tools to perform such an evaluation. This paper presents a computerized method that may be used to perform the evaluation task and establish the company level of competitiveness in an honest, and just way, free from improper influence. Conclusions drawn, and actions and decisions made as a result of the evaluation, are the prerogative of management. The evaluation method employs a matrix concept, which is fully described in this paper.     

Dynamic Marriage Matching: An Empirical Framework

This paper develops a new model for empirically analyzing dynamic matching in the marriage market and then applies that model to recent changes in the U.S. marriage distribution. Its primary objective is to estimate gains by age from being married today (till death of at least one spouse) relative to remaining single for that same time period. An empirical methodology that relies on the model's equilibrium outcomes identifies the marriage gains using a single cross‐section of observed aggregate matches. This behavioral dynamic model rationalizes a new marriage matching function. The model also solves the inverse problem of computing the vector of aggregate marriages, given a new distribution of available single individuals and estimated preferences. Finally, this paper develops a simple test of the model's empirical validity. Using aggregate data of new marriages and available single men and women in the United States over two decades from 1970 to 1990, I investigate the changes in marriage gains over this period.     

A reference model for collaborative design in mould industry

The mould industry is an indispensable foundation for mass production by manufacturer and influences the time to market of new product. It is difficult to integrate the new product development processes and information systems among the mould companies which are mainly small and medium enterprises. The design chain operations reference-model (DCOR) provides a well-recognised methodology to standardise the management process for a product development project and enables the integration for mould industry. The DCOR focuses on a primary and preliminary product development process and is necessary to extend the detail templates for the industrial requirements. Hence, the purpose of this research is to develop an approach that extends the DCOR to the mould industry. The framework of the developed model, which is called the design chain operations reference-model for the mould industry, is adopted for a case mould company for a feasibility discussion.     

CURRICULUM DESIGN AND EVALUATION: INCORPORATING STUDENT PERSPECTIVES ON MAJORS AND CAREERS

In this paper the authors discuss the curriculum evaluation process. The use of student inputs to this process is supported. A demonstration is given of a methodology for analyzing student attitudes towards areas of study in the curriculum, and their perceptions of the relations between those areas of study and the job market.     

A decision support system for the selection of a casting process using analytic hierarchy process

This paper presents an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) based decision support system to select the most suitable casting process for a given product. The hierarchical structure of the proposed method allows the decision maker to compare the different casting processes using the material suitability and flexibility, geometrical complexity, dimensional tolerance and surface finish of the casting, and the cost as the criteria for selection. Judgemental inconsistency of the decision maker in selecting the casting process is taken care by ensuring that the value of consistency ratio is below (0.1). A numerical example is presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology for selecting the suitable casting process.     

交叉上市股票价格发现能力差异及交易信息含量测度

本文在市场微观结构的理论框架下,对交叉上市股票的价格发现过程进行了分析。在Hasbrouck信息分成技术的基础上,提供了一种新的方法使其能够对市场交易过程中的公开信息和私有信息含量进行分解和测度。研究过程以 "A+H"交叉上市股票为研究对象,对本文的模型和方法进行了具体的应用和验证。