The need for new statistical legislation for the UK

Summary. The paper is written to inform public discussion on whether or not statistical legislation for the UK is needed and, if so, on its nature and content. A brief account of the background to the current position is given. The Government's stated intention is to create an 'independent statistical service' and a discussion of the meaning of independence in the context of official stat- istics and governance arrangements is provided. Recent international experience is described and the Statistics Acts of some other countries are used to distil the key features of Statistics Acts in other countries. The arguments for and against possible legislation are described. Whether or not a Statistics Act is desirable for the UK depends strongly on the legislation being well framed. There are several key issues on which Parliament would need to develop an informed view and these are set out towards the end of the paper.     

外国政府统计体制的类型及其特点

政府统计体制是政府有效地行使统计工作行政管理和协调的组织保证 ,也是统计数据能全面、及时、准确为社会服务的制度保证。因此 ,它首先必须服从统计工作职能的要求 ,这决定了政府统计体制在世界各国有其共同的特点 ,即通过设置一系列组织机构和制定统计法律法规 ,管理和协调全国统计工作。同时 ,它又受制于各国社会、政治、经济管理体制。由于各国的国情、国体和政体各不相同 ,其政府统计体制也千差万别。并且 ,政府统计体制不是一成不变的。随着国家管理决策对统计的要求越来越高 ,以及社会、经济和技术条件的发展 ,特别是计算机自动化和…     

No islands: charting a course for UK official statistics

Our system of official statistics in the UK is one of the most decentralised and elaborate in the world. As well as the Office for National Statistics (ONS), it spans several sizeable centres of expertise in Whitehall departments and in the three devolved administrations; and it embraces agencies such as the Higher Education Statistics Agency and the Information Centre for Health and Social Care, which sit at arms length from central departments. In 2008, legislation establishing a new Statistics Board, with oversight not just of the ONS but of all official figures produced by these bodies, will come fully into force. Richard Alldritt of the Statistics Commission and Richard Laux of the ONS identify some of the challenges facing the statistical system at this time of transition and suggests a course that the Statistics Board might want to steer.     

The Role of Statistical Models in the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Motion

Tropical cyclones (tropical storms, hurricanes, typhoons, etc.) occur over many of the earth's tropical marine areas. Responsibility for tracking and predicting the future course of these storms is assigned to one or more domestic or foreign meteorological services. These services routinely activate a number of statistical and dynamical prediction models as objective guidance preparatory to issuing official forecasts on these storms. In this article, the role of the statistical models in this process is examined.     

Error models for official mortality forecasts

"The Office of the Actuary, U.S. Social Security Administration, produces alternative forecasts of mortality to reflect uncertainty about the future.... In this article we identify the components and assumptions of the official forecasts and approximate them by stochastic parametric models. We estimate parameters of the models from past data, derive statistical intervals for the forecasts, and compare them with the official high-low intervals. We use the models to evaluate the forecasts rather than to develop different predictions of the future. Analysis of data from 1972 to 1985 shows that the official intervals for mortality forecasts for males or females aged 45-70 have approximately a 95% chance of including the true mortality rate in any year. For other ages the chances are much less than 95%."     

中外政府统计体制比较研究

 随着我国社会主义市场经济改改革的不断深入,为满足国家宏观经济调控需要,满足社会公众对统计信息需要和国际间比较研究和交往的需要,我国政府统计体制发生了重大的变化。但是,由于我国正处于由计划经济向以社会主义市场经济的转变时期,统计体制的改革也有一个适应的过程。现行的政府统计体制不能很好的满足宏观决策部门和社会公众等各方面的需要,还存在比较严重的体制不顺问题,统计制度和统计方法也有待进一步改革,如政府综合统计与部门统计、中央统计与地方统计之间的关系不顺,国名经济核算体系还不完善,统计数据质量不高等等。为了更好地为我国统计体制改革提供借鉴经验,笔者通过中外政府统计体制比较研究课题,对世界上主要国家的政府统计体制进行了研究,分析了各种类型政府统计体制的共性和特性,并在结合分析我国政府统计体制的基础上,提出了我国政府统计体制改革的方向和政策建议。     

Official statistics, public policy and public trust

Summary.  The question of public confidence in official statistics has been central to government statistical policy for the last 10 years. This year the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 was passed. The paper suggests key characteristics of the new arrangements that will be needed if public confidence in the official statistics outputs is to be strengthened. It is argued that this will depend on public confidence in the statistical system as a whole rather than just the new Board. The organizational structure of the UK statistical system is described and this is linked to the issue of public confidence. Finally the wider questions of evidence-based policy and the use of statistics and statistical thinking throughout government are discussed.     

Evaluation of CUSUM Charts for Finite-Horizon Processes

This article analyses and evaluates the properties of a CUSUM chart designed for monitoring the process mean in short production runs. Several statistical measures of performance that are appropriate when the process operates for a finite-time horizon are proposed. The methodology developed in this article can be used to evaluate the performance of the CUSUM scheme for any given set of chart parameters from both an economic and a statistical point of view, and thus, allows comparisons with various other charts.     

官方统计数据修订的国际经验

随着社会各界对统计数据越来越关注,官方统计数据的修订问题越来越重要。科学修订统计数据对于确保统计数据质量,维护统计数据信誉十分重要。本文深入分析了国外官方统计数据修订的主要原因,阐述了有关国际组织和国家统计数据修订的种类、范围、条件和程序,详细介绍了美国和澳大利亚官方统计数据修订的具体做法和经验,并得出了几点有益的启示,以期对研究制定我国统计数据修订制度提供借鉴。     

统计数据发布标准化体系研究

 本文通过借鉴标准化理论,应用先进的数据管理技术,探索建立一套既符合我国国情,满足统计工作现代化需要,又适应国际官方统计基本原则的统计数据管理和发布模式。建立了统计数据发布标准化体系,构建了由决策服务体系、宏观监测体系、数据共享体系、公共数据发布体系构成的统计数据发布体系,在智能化数据管理技术的支撑下构建了统计数据发布标准化平台,以此强化统计服务,探索提高统计能力、提高统计数据质量、提高政府统计公信力的新途径。     

面向信息使用者的经济统计数据修订

经济统计数据修订是官方统计工作的重要内容之一,因为相关的修订会影响到统计数据使用者的决策,所以科学规范的修订程序会提升官方统计的权威性和公信力。归纳了国际货币基金组织对统计数据修订的四种类型,从信息使用者角度阐述统计修订工作的时效性、准确性、一致性、可获得性与约束性内涵,结合西方发达国家的经济统计数据修订实践和历史经验,特别是美国国内生产总值的修订经验,为中国经济统计数据修订工作实现规范化提供借鉴。     

美国的消费价格指数体系及其对我国的启示

消费价格指数是官方统计对消费支出价格变动情况的一个基本描述,其数据质量高低在影响公众经济行为的同时,也在影响着一国（地区）宏观经济政策的有效性。文章以美国消费价格指数体系为研究对象,就美国统计实践中的传统CPI指数、PCE指数、C-CPI-U指数进行了对比分析,并从编制原理的改进、宏观经济政策的需要和可操作性等方面阐述了形成美国现有消费价格指数体系的原因。最后,借鉴美国的经验,结合我国现阶段CPI编制状况,提出了进一步优化我国消费价格指数统计的政策建议。     

Recent Monetary Policy and the Divisia Monetary Aggregates

This article explains the currently available capability to use formal statistical index number theory to measure the economy's money supply accurately. The new procedure is illustrated by exploring the tightness of money during the recent three-year period of “monetarist” Federal Reserve policy. When measured by a properly constructed statistical index number, the rate of growth of the money supply is found to have been lower and more volatile than when measured by the official simple sum monetary aggregates. As a result, targeting the simple sum aggregates may have induced a tighter and more volatile policy than was intended.     

国家统计机构比较研究

 内容提要：本研究报告在广泛收集和研究国外相关资料的基础上，介绍了国家统计机构的一般组织结构、官方统计基本原则在各国的实施和经验。在此基础上，剖析了官方统计10项基本原则在我国统计工作中的实施情况，通过对照、检查，指出我国统计工作在很多方面已经达到国际通行的官方统计基本原则要求，在一些方面甚至处于国际领先水平。但是，在某些方面与国际标准相比，仍有一定的差距，需要进一步改进、提高。为此，提出了完善我国统计工作的初步建议。     

分享经济核算需要厘清的几个基本问题

分享经济作为一种新兴经济,社会各界对其认知存在显著差异,导致有关核算研究及统计实践面临诸如定义、生产范围界定、统计分类、估价和增加值估算等问题。为此,本文立足于理论与实 践的角度,结合各方面研究归纳出分享经济的本质,一种有偿暂时性让渡闲置资源使用权的市场性分享 活动,这种活动在互联网通信技术,尤其是分享平台的助力下,进入了规模化发展阶段。同时,利用SNA的生产观点归纳出分享经济的生产与产出统计范围,并对相关统计分类方法和标准进行了探讨。最后,针对分享经济估价问题提出了有关估算方法。 本文的创新在于提出了分享经济活动的理论边界,明确了分享经济核算研究的主体及统计范围,有助于解决统计实践中产品与行业活动“统不进、分不开”的问题,为完善“三新”统计制度提供了参考依据。     

中国数字经济产业统计分类问题研究

数字经济在推动经济增长和转变人们生活方式方面发挥了重要作用,已成为推动中国经济高质量发展的“新引擎”。然而,中国数字经济统计研究明显滞后于数字经济发展实践,这不利于相关部门监测数字经济发展和科学制定政策。本文系统梳理了数字经济的概念演进以及经济合作与发展组织、美国经济分析局等国际组织和官方统计部门对数字经济相关产业的统计划分。结合中国已有相关统计分类标准,提出了中国数字经济产业统计分类,具体包括数字设备制造、数字信息传输、数字技术服务、数字内容与媒体、互联网应用及相关服务5个大类,共计22个中类、122个小类,并与国际上现有的相应产业分类进行了对比分析。本文可为官方统计机构建立数字经济产业统计分类标准、统计和发布相关统计数据提供理论参考。     

统计公信力与为社会公众服务意识

本文从近期政府统计公信力不断遭受公众和媒体质疑入手,对影响政府统计公信力的因素从统计工作自身、政府部门、公众和媒体等不同角度进行深入分析,进而提出提升政府统计公信力的应对措施。     

How to improve a team's position in the FIFA ranking? A simulation study

In this paper, we study the efficacy of the official ranking for international football teams compiled by FIFA, the body governing football competition around the globe. We present strategies for improving a team's position in the ranking. By combining several statistical techniques, we derive an objective function in a decision problem of optimal scheduling of future matches. The presented results display how a team's position can be improved. Along the way, we compare the official procedure to the famous Elo rating system. Although it originates from chess, it has been successfully tailored to ranking football teams as well.     

当前我国统计科学的若干重要研究领域

The paper discusses the important research areas of statistical sciences from the three aspects of official statistical work, statistical theory and methods as well as other marginal overlapping statistics.     

A State Space Approach to Extracting the Signal From Uncertain Data

Most macroeconomic data are uncertain—they are estimates rather than perfect measures of underlying economic variables. One symptom of that uncertainty is the propensity of statistical agencies to revise their estimates in the light of new information or methodological advances. This paper sets out an approach for extracting the signal from uncertain data. It describes a two-step estimation procedure in which the history of past revisions is first used to estimate the parameters of a measurement equation describing the official published estimates. These parameters are then imposed in a maximum likelihood estimation of a state space model for the macroeconomic variable.