人工智能时代人口研究的前瞻性思考

模拟人类智能的人工智能开启了人口研究的新时代,不仅丰富了人口的内涵,将人口研究对象由人类人口拓展到智能人口,而且人工智能对人类人口、劳动力、低生育率、老龄化、健康、人口流动、贫困人口、人口治理、人口安全和人口学研究方法都将产生深远影响。人工智能时代要大力发展智能人口学,推动智能人口在数字经济、人口治理、人口监测、人口普查、健康管理、应急管理、战争模拟、疫情防控、智能城市建设和完善基本公共服务等领域的应用。加强人工智能与人口发展的协同治理,探索人机协同发展对国家治理和经济社会发展的影响,尤其要加强智能伦理建设,确保人工智能与人口发展在可控范围,避免重大人口安全风险。     

拓宽人口学研究领域,推进我国人口科学的不断发展——“中国区域人口与发展学术研讨会”综述

区域人口与发展问题在我国构建和谐社会中占有重要地位,“中国区域人口与发展学术研讨会”汇集了学者们最新的研究成果,进一步拓宽了人口学研究领域,推动了我国区域发展战略的实施。     

人口社会学研究对象的再探讨

人口社会学是人口学的分支学科,是人口学知识体系的重要组成部分。对中外学者关于人口社会学的定义进行分类和评述,指出人口社会学是运用社会学、人口学等学科的观点、理论和方法,研究人口行为及行为问题的人口科学,它的任务是通过揭示人口行为的一般规律,促进人口行为现代化和社会进步,阐述了人口社会学的研究体系和主要研究内容。     

学习邓小平人口思想贯彻和落实以人为本的科学发展观

邓小平人口思想是邓小平理论的重要组成部分,是对马克思主义人口理论的继承和发展,是分析和解决新形势下的我国人口问题,推动人口与经济、社会全面、协调和可持续发展的强大思想武器和行动指南。认真学习和深刻领会邓小平人口思想,切实贯彻好以人为本的科学发展观,是广大人口与计划生育工作者特别是各级党委领导的头等大事。     

十年来我国人口学界关于“人口质量”研究综述

<正> 十年来,我国人口学界关于“人口质量”问题的研究,大多是围绕以下问题而展开的。一、关于建立一门“质量人口学”几乎所有学者在探讨、研究关于人口数量以及非系统性的研究人口质量的有关问题时,越来越感到应当立即着手建立一门研究人口质量问题的独立学科。1984年,吴忠观同志在《人口与经济》第5期《试论人口质量》一文中指出:“独立出‘质量人口学’,一方面是人口学内部各部分分工趋于精细的必然趋势;另一方面,也     

以人为本促进人口计生科学发展

党的十六届三中全会提出的“坚持以人为本,树立全面、协调、可持续的发展观,促进经济社会和人的全面发展”,是新时期做好人口计生工作的指导方针。在人口计生的管理和服务的具体工作实践中,我们在坚持以人为本,科学发展方面做了一些有益的实践和探索。     

人口计生工作的核心是以人为本

河南省新乡市紧紧围绕人口现状、群众愿望、形势要求,照镜子,找问题,转作风,改方法,不断强化以人为本的理念,完善利益导向政策,提升服务质量,努力建设阳光计生、诚信计生、惠民计生、和谐计生。以人为本建设阳光计生新形势下的人口计生工作,坚持＂三不变＂,实行＂六公开＂。即：人口计生的基本国策不变,党政一把手负总责的制度不变,＂一票否决＂的责任追究制度不变。人口目标公开,考核内容公开,考核结果公开,     

从“以人为本”角度反思我国的社会城市化

社会城市化是城市化一个重要方面,但由于我国处于社会、经济激烈的转型中,社会城市化一直没有得到足够的重视。本文通过分析我国社会城市化的现状与存在的问题,强调在城市建设中要“以人为本”、加大对社会城市化的重视,并提出“以人为本”城市化的相应对策。本文强调城市化的最终目的应该是包括城市居民、流动人口和农民在内的所有人都能享受城市文明,提高生活质量。这也是构建和谐社会的必然要求。     

基于中国人口实践的制度人口学研究内容探析

制度人口学主要是从制度变革视角探讨人口行为方式．研究制度对人口行为的制约、调整扫引导作用。本文通过对制度人口学已有研究的综述．结合中国人口实践探讨了制度人口学的研究内容。笔者认为。制度人口学的研究内容包含基础理论研究和应用理论研究两个主要方面：从两种生产理论推演出“削度决定人口”的命题。由此得出两种生产理论是制度人口学研究的理论源泉和指导思想：两种生产理论和制度创新理论是制度人口学的基本理论：具体人口制度研究除了人口生育制度之外,笔者还将人口死亡制度、人口流迁制度、人口教育制度、人口就业制度、人口保障制度及人口文化制度等纳入了人口制度研究的范畴。     

坚持以人为本 建设服务型人口计生机关

《中共中央国务院关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定》的发布,标志着人口计生事业迈上了新的发展阶段,人口计生工作的服务内容、服务方式都将发生历史性转变,按照“立党为公、执政为民”的思想,建设服务型人口计生机关,是当前和今后一个时期人口计生部门应深入思考和着力解决的突出问题。     

Household demographic factors as life cycle determinants of land use in the Amazon

This paper seeks to broaden the application of demographyto environmental studies by complementing existing macro-level approaches, which feature aggregate populations, with a micro-level approach that highlights household life cycles. I take up the case of small farm households in the Brazilian Amazon to present a theoretical framework that identifies demographic characteristics which dispose families to engage in different forms of land use as household age structures change. Empirical models show that net of theeffects of farmer background, neighborhood context, institutional context, and off-farm incomes, demographic variables indicative of the household life cycle exert significant effects on the prominence of land uses with distinct environmental ramifications. The findings not only reveal micro-level demographic factors which affect Amazon land cover, they yield implications forfuture changes in rainforest landscapes in northern Brazil, and suggest household life cycle models as an avenue for further demographic research on environmental change in Latin America and other contexts.     

The analysis of linkages in demographic theory

Many seemingly different questions that arise in the analysis of population change can be phrased as the same technical question: How, within a given demographic model, would variable y change if the age- or time-specific function f were to change arbitrarily in shape and intensity? At present demography lacks the machinery to answer this question in analytical and general form. This paper suggests a method based on modern functional calculus for deriving closed-form expressions for the sensitivity of demographic variables to changes in input functions or schedules. It uses this “linkage method” to obtain closed-form expressions for the response of the intrinsic growth rate, birth rate, and age composition of a stable population to arbitrary marginal changes in its age patterns of fertility and mortality. It uses it also to obtain expressions for the transient response of the age composition of a nonstable population to time-varying changes in the birth sequence, and to age-specific fertility and mortality patterns that change over time. The problem of “bias” in period vital rates is also looked at.     

Studying Marxist theory on population and initiating a new situation in demographic research]

Within Marxist ideology are important population theories that led to the establishment of demography and the work of population control in China. Marxist population theory should be studied in order to build a scientific system of concepts in population theory. Both Marx and Engels spoke of the relationship between human reproduction and material production, and of how the modes of social development determine population development. Marx also established the view that a normal population and surplus population both were mutually adaptable with a certain production basis. In any historical period, the total population is not determined subjectively by man's wishes, but is a product of historical development. The Maoist population theory is derived from Marxist theory. Borrowing from historical materialism, Mao said that of all the objects in the world, man is the most precious. Nevertheless, he continued, while China's large population is good, it brings many difficulties; thus, population must be controlled. The study of demography should follow Marxist and Maoist population theories, even though the study of Marixst population theory is relatively recent and much remains to be learned.     

The importance of international demographic research for the United States

International demographic research hasprovided many benefits for the U.S. This paperidentifies five main reasons for these benefits. First, cross-national research provides unique policyinsights that help the U.S. to develop more effectiveprograms and policies to address pressing andpersistent domestic challenges. Second, it helps theU.S. to understand and address problems and issues inmany countries or regions of the world that are ofparticular relevance to the U.S. because of theirstrategic or commercial importance to us. Third, ithelps the U.S. to address problems and issues that areglobal in nature and require international policyresponses. Fourth, it helps the U.S. to providehumanitarian aid to poor countries more effectivelyand efficiently. Finally, it contributes to theadvancement of science, which in turn stimulates andenriches research focusing on the U.S.     

The new point in population theory: some questions in the current demographic textbooks]

The current population theory in China emphasize that human reproduction must keep pace with the production of goods and services. The author of this paper challenges this theory and believes that the relationship between these two kinds of production, human reproduction should take the principal place. Production of goods and services must first meet the needs of people. Keeping population growth in pace with production of goods and services is of secondary importance. The demographic transition from high fertility and high mortality to low fertility and low mortality in developed country was not caused by poverty, hunger, and surplus of the labor force, and it was not the end result of forcing population growth to stay in pace with material production. Increasing productivity to provide abundant goods depend on improving the quality of the population. When the purpose of consumption is not only for survival, demands for material goods and leisure will take precedence over demands for children. An-emphasis on keeping population reproduction in pace with the production of goods and services tends to ignore the importance of increasing productivity which is the key to the improvement of living standards.     

Learning-by-doing,population pressure,and the theory of demographic transition

The present paper discusses the long-run effects of two interdependent relations between economic and population growth. According to a frequently used formulation of the population-push hypothesis, learning-by-doing effects in production lead to increasing returns to scale and, therefore, to a positive correlation between economic and population growth. In accordance to the theory of demographic transition the population growth rate initially increases with rising income levels and then declines. Regarding this relationship, the existence and stability of a low-income equilibrium and a high-income equilibrium will be shown in a neoclassical growth model. Under plausible conditions a demo-economic transition from the first to the second steady-state takes place. The result yields a meaningful interpretation of the population-push hypothesis, which is consistent with the empirical findings on the correlation between economic and population growth. Received March 8, 1996 / Accepted October 24, 1996     

The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature

This paper examines the theoretical propositions and empirical evidence linking policies and fertility. More specifically, the analysis presented in this paper draws attention to the complex mechanisms that theoretically link policies and demographic outcomes: mechanisms that involve imperfect information and decisions that are rationally bound by very specific circumstances. As to the empirical evidence, studies provide mixed conclusions as to the effect of policies on fertility. While a small positive effect of policies on fertility is found in numerous studies, no statistically significant effect is found in others. Moreover, some studies suggest that the effect of policies tends to be on the timing of births rather than on completed fertility.

Community confidentiality,consent, and the individual research process: Implications for demographic research

Institutional review boards are increasingly meticulous about informed consent and risks and benefits to study participants. Concurrently, heated debate in a number of fields has advanced the notion of community risk and benefit. When research is conducted in communities, and the results may “do harm to” communities socially, economically, or medically, should informed and voluntary consent be obtained from communities as well? We argue that for demographers – by definition interested at the phenomena at the population level – concern for individuals as a part of communities is critical to the research process. Questions of community consent, confidentiality, and participation will be pushed to the fore as demography delves into new areas and methods of investigation. This paper provides a brief overview of the historical development of ethics in human subjects research and the subsequent ties to community-level concerns. Drawing on current examples from a variety of settings, we explore definitions of community, the scope and viability of community participation in research, and the implications of these for demographic enquiry. We find that in contrast to substantive debates, little attention has been given to ethical issues in the demographic research process. Research accountability to communities, including the documentation of community risks and benefits, and community representation and consultation in the research process are recommended.