到底能生多少孩子?——中国人的政策生育潜力估计

本文以1985年以来全国大型人口抽样调查数据为基础,分析生育水平、生育意愿与生育潜力的基本状况和主要特点,对育龄妇女生育意愿与生育潜力的变化范围进行估计,结果表明,目前中国育龄妇女的生育意愿低于更替水平,二孩生育目标占绝对优势,潜在二孩生育的比例不到50%。在此基础上,本文通过随机微观人口仿真模型研究放开"单独"二孩政策和全面放开二孩政策对出生人口规模的影响,认为放开"单独"二孩政策也不会引起很大的出生人口堆积。     

2014年合肥市育龄期夫妻二孩生育意愿的状况研究

"单独二孩"政策的放开,为我们重新认识城乡居民的生育意愿提供了机会。本文针对合肥市的育龄期夫妻群体进行二孩生育意愿的大样本调查,通过数据显示,被调查对象中以女性居多,企业职工是主要职业类型,家庭结构以核心家庭为主,符合"单独二孩"政策的育龄期夫妻占到了37%;在符合"单独二孩"政策的育龄期夫妻人数中,计划生育二孩的时间以三到五年内居多,同时二孩性别倾向减弱;本文通过对512名城乡育龄期夫妻进行问卷调查与入户访谈,为后续数据研究与分析提供基础。     

上海提高居民生育水平的公共政策研究

应从长远和全局高度重视人口均衡发展,充分发挥上海现代化国际大都市的资源配置优势,以鼓励一孩家庭生育二孩为重点,着力解决不敢生的后顾之忧;激发适龄未育家庭潜力,打消其不愿生的思想包袱;更大力度推广生殖辅助技术,让一部分不能生的家庭如愿所生。采取组合式生育支持政策,推动经济社会政策与生育政策配套衔接,“多管齐下”构建生育配套支持体系。     

我国生育政策城乡一体化方案与配套支持

我国生育政策城乡一体化是人口转变与社会发展之必然。一方面,城乡二元的生育政策很难体现城乡公平,用生育政策的优惠来弥补社会保障功能的匮乏这一做法已越来越不符合社会发展趋势;另一方面,二元生育政策本身的复杂性增加了政策执行过程中的成本与困难。生育政策城乡一体化应以城市与农村均实行一孩半政策作为既简化又稳妥的改革方案。生育政策城乡一体化还应配备配套措施,完善生育政策的评估指标,将少生与不生纳入评估范畴,促进城乡医疗、养老、教育等公共服务机会均等化、户籍管理动态化,还要正确理解人口老龄化,为生育政策城乡一体化提供良好的执行环境。     

青年女性生育二孩决策和家庭支持关系研究

通过在广东省中山市24个镇区获得的3000多份对20-45岁的青年女性的调查问卷数据,发现已育已孕二孩或者决定但还未生育二孩的女性在家务劳动方面的负担比不确定是否生育二孩和决定不生育二孩的负担要小;对生育二孩持肯定态度的女性群体在家务活动、物质支持、照料小孩支持等方面获得的支持都比其他群体多。被调查者的年龄、家庭年收入、配偶的家务分担、长辈的物质支持和照顾小孩的支持会显著地影响女性的二孩生育决策。家庭收入高以及越能够获得家庭的支持,就越能够促进女性做出生育二孩的决定。     

裕固族妇女生育观念与生育意愿的调查分析

本文采用自编问卷,对肃南县裕固族妇女的生育观念和生育意愿进行了调查与分析。结果发现：（1）裕固族妇女生育目的注重情感效用;（2）裕固族妇女生育年龄相比较于过去普遍推迟;（3）裕固族妇女生育孩子没有显著的性别偏好;（4）裕固族妇女意愿生育数量少。文章在分析裕固族妇女生育观念和生育意愿现状的基础上提出了相应的对策和建议。     

立即全面放开二孩政策的人口学后果分析

我国妇女的生育水平在20世纪90年代逐渐下降到标准水平以下,并且长时间维持在这个水平线下。这种情况下,我国对于生育政策展开了全面讨论。本文以人口普查中的数据为研究基础,对于我国独生子女模式进行研究,并判断了二孩政策开放后的人口数据。在实际研究中发现,我国二孩政策针对的人群数量较大,并且妇女生二孩的意愿较高,我国人口数量在二孩政策开放后也明显增加。立即全面开放二孩政策可以缓解社会中的人口老龄化压力,增加社会中的劳动力资源。     

80后城乡之间婚恋生育观对比研究——长沙市、涟源市红仙村的婚恋生育观的对比调查

婚恋生育观这个话题无时无刻不在冲击着我们的眼球和耳朵,尤其是作为我国的第一代独生子女的“80后”婚恋生育观成了时下人们争论的焦点。融合当前的热点,我们以“80后”婚恋生育观城乡之间的对比研究为题进行了深入探究。从恋爱、择偶、婚姻等方面进行探讨。他们的婚恋观,呈现了多元化的状况,生育观则明显受西方文化和中国的计划生育政策的影响,也呈现多元化的趋势。“80后”的婚恋价值取向已从单一价值、单一模式向多元化转变;“80后”出现的婚恋生育状况,代表着我们国家的新的社会问题。     

浅析我国计划生育政策与生育文化转变

计划生育政策是我国的基本国策,计划生育政策在生育文化转变的过程中起到积极的促进作用。在城市生育文化转变过程中起到催化剂的作用;在农村生育文化转变过程中起到动力作用,客观上推动生育文化转变的步伐。了解计划生育政策在我国生育文化转变过程中的地位与作用有利于我们正确的评判计划生育政策的意义,为政策的调整也带来参考价值。     

人类学视角下的乡村妇女生育情况发展——以湘潭县M村为例

乡村妇女生育受传统生育观念的影响,具有明显早婚、早育、多育的特征。解放前乡村妇女的生育条件简陋,缺乏安全保障,生育致死率高,妇女生育状况普遍被漠视,生育意愿也无法被满足。妇女的生育状况反映了社会性别观念,男尊女卑的性别等级观念使生育成了妇女单方面的事,进而导致妇女的生育和生育的妇女从某种程度上被忽视,但随着乡村经济的发展,妇女生育问题逐渐得到改善。     

Canadian Ethnic Fertility

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship among ethnicity, education, and fertility for selected Canadian ethnic groups, introducing several extensions of Johnson's recent elaboration of Goldscheider and Uhlenberg's minority group status hypothesis. The findings suggest that among Asiatics and Germans the prevailing reproductive pattern is an assimilative one relative to the British majority group. Native Indians and Dutch maintain high levels of reproduction, but at post-secondary school attainment their mean family sizes converge with the British. Ukrainian, Italian, and Jewish minorities experience below average fertility, and at high levels of education it is the British group which converges with the low fertility pattern of Jews and Italians. Ukrainians differ, as their fertility is consistently below the majority group, regardless of educational level.     

Fertility patterns in the Roma population of Spain

The Spanish Roma population have co-existed with the broader population of Spain, under the same laws and regulations for more than 500 years, but they exhibit very different fertility patterns. The aim of this paper is to determine whether there are factors other than income or education that can explain the larger number of children in Spanish Roma families. Our analysis reveals that the existence of a family business, which is highly labor-demanding, appears to be associated with parental decisions concerning the number of children. Since parental authority, in Roma families, holds sway over children even after their own marriage, the future labor contributions of children are particularly beneficial to the family business.     

Precursors of Nonmarital Fertility in the United States

The dramatic increase in nonmarital fertility in the United States has generally been explained in terms of either economic circumstances or changing norms and values. We believe that fertility motivations, and the intentions they generate, should be taken into account, and we hypothesize that nonmarital fertility is more likely when children are seen as an important source of social capital. Using data from the first two waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (N= 1,155), we find support for these views. Women who considered the social resource value of children to be high were more likely to have an out‐of‐wedlock birth than were those who did not. Women who did not intend to have a child were less likely to have a nonmarital conception than were women who did intend to have a child. We conclude that understanding recent increases in nonmarital fertility requires an appreciation of the social benefits that children bring to their mothers, married or not.     

Fertility Behavior of Interracial Couples

Despite the unprecedented rise in the number of intermarriages and multiracial individuals in recent decades, our understanding about the fertility behavior of interracial couples is limited. Using data from the 2002 and 2006–2015 National Survey of Family Growth, this study compares the risk of pregnancy and the pregnancy intentions of interracial couples with those of same‐race couples. Interracial couples' risk of pregnancy differed little from that of same‐race White couples, with the exception of White wife–Black husband couples, whose risk of pregnancy was higher than both same‐race White and Black couples. Neither socioeconomic disparities nor union characteristics explained their elevated pregnancy risk. Interracial couples' risk of unintended pregnancy mirrored closely that of same‐race couples from the husband's racial or ethnic group. Socioeconomic disparity was the primary driver of differences in pregnancy intentions between interracial and same‐race White couples.     

Economic Uncertainty and Fertility

Sociologists and demographers have long been interested in the role of economic uncertainty in family behavior. Despite the prevailing “bourgeois conviction” that economic uncertainty discourages people from having children, the empirical evidence on this issue is mixed. In this paper, I summarize the recent empirical evidence, and discuss the potential limitations of previous investigations. Among the possible shortcomings of these studies is that many relied exclusively on unemployment as an operational definition of labor market uncertainty. Subjective indicators of economic uncertainty, which measure the individual’s perception of his or her economic situation more directly, often were not available to researchers. Moreover, few of these studies explored group-specific differences in behavior. In this paper, we seek to overcome some of the limitations of these earlier analyses. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we study the role of perceived economic uncertainty in transitions to first and higher order births for the period 1990–2013. In addition, we examine how different population subgroups (stratified by education, parity, and age) respond to economic uncertainty.     

Changing Italian Families in the Era of Fertility Decline

Abstract:  Over the past few decades, in examining the social causes of low fertility in advanced societies, sociologists and demographers have shown increasing interest in southern European countries. Italy has been recognized as one of these countries plagued by lowest-low fertility. In general, the literature has depicted certain characteristics of Italian families as possible causes of fertility decline. This article examines the situation of contemporary Italian families and intergenerational relationships from a sociological point of view, particularly in comparison with Japanese families. It has sometimes been argued that strong familism characterizes Italian families and society. According to this view, one of the causes of fertility decline in Italy is the continuity of strong families. Empirical data suggest, however, that this familism perspective cannot explain the differences in family patterns observed among Italian regions. In addition, a comparison between Italy and Japan with respect to intergenerational relationships suggests that there are substantial differences between the two countries. It is suggested that a further exploration of the various aspects of social contexts is needed in order to clarify what is distinctive about contemporary Italian families.     

Fertility awareness: the University of California/Berkeley experience

A woman must first register at the Health Education office before participating in the University of California's (Berkeley) Fertility Awareness program. At that time she receives a packet containing all class materials: the San Francisco Health Center 4's Fertility Awareness booklet, a bibliography, basic goal s and premises of Fertility Awareness, 3 blank charts, a questionnaire, a class outline. During the 1st class the most material is covered, and the class outline is reviewed. Instructors review the goals and premises of Fertility Awareness and briefly discuss its history. Throughout the meeting, student participation and interaction are encouraged. The instructors present the first fertility symptom, mucus. Mucus is discussed in terms of the fertility phases of the menstrual cycle: relatively infertile, fertile, and infertile. Students are taught how to check their cervical mucus, how to chart it, and how to calculate the beginning of their infertile phase. The intent exercise is then introduced, reminding the group that if a woman is planning on using Fertility Awareness to contracept, her success may be affected by her and her partner's feelings about pregnancy and their own fertility. Students break up into smaller groups and share their responses if they so choose. When the entire group is together again, participants are encouraged to continue thier discussions outside of class. At this point just enough information about the temperature symptom is presented so that everyone can begin charting during the following week. The last symptom discussed is the cervical symptom. The 2nd class begins with a review of male and female reproductive anatomy and physiology, with the aid of some slides. Next the temperature symptom is discussed. The 2nd class closes with an excellent film depicting ovulation, conception, and fetal development. During the 3rd class, students' charts are reviewed after viewing 6 slides of sample Fertility Awareness charts. Class participation is very active. Several changes in the program have been made as a result of student input. Follow-up has been rather minimal. Teaching Fertility Awareness has been a stimulating experience. Classes are always full and there is a demand for additional classes each quarter.     

Fertility adaptation of Turkish and Moroccan women in the Netherlands

"After a short overview of fertility trends among Turkish and Moroccan immigrants in the Netherlands, based upon population and vital registration data, determinants of these trends are analysed using survey data on cumulative fertility as well as on desired fertility." The author concludes that although "a long time series of data is not yet available due to the fairly recent history of the migration of Turkish and Moroccan women to the Netherlands, it appears that their fertility level is declining. Migrant fertility levels are lower than in the countries of origin.... Factors in the decline of overall immigrant fertility are variables related to the country of destination: work and education, insofar as this education was received in the Netherlands." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)