拉丁美洲国家应对气候变化法律与政策分析

为有效应对气候变化,拉丁美洲国家在参与气候变化国际谈判的同时,还制定了相应的应对气候变化的法律、政策和行动计划,形成了两种推进方式：以气候变化法律为主、政策为辅的法律主导方式,以气候变化政策为主、少有甚至没有相关立法的政策主导方式。整体上看,拉丁美洲国家在应对气候变化上取得了较大进展,尤其是在气候变化综合性立法上取得了突破,在发展中国家中处于领先地位;气候变化国家政策正顺应时代潮流加速发展。在气候变化立法上,拉丁关洲国家在发展中国家中处于领先地位,在气候变化政策上,拉丁美洲国家正加快发展速度。由于受到多方面因素的制约,拉丁美洲国家在制定与实施应对气候变化法律与政策时仍面临一定阻力,个别国家在应对气候变化上徘徊不前,须尽快弥补政策空白。     

The Role of Distributional Coalitions in Welfare Regimes: Chile, Costa Rica and El Salvador

Do social policies in Latin America promote or discourage distribution? And if they do promote distribution, are coalitions a prerequisite? Drawing from a typology of welfare regimes elaborated for 18 Latin American countries, this article explores responses to these questions by addressing three emblematic cases: Chile, Costa Rica and El Salvador – that is, countries where the management of social risks primarily revolves around markets, states and families, respectively. Although the article is exploratory, findings suggest that societal coalitions have been, and are likely to continue to be, weak in market welfare regimes, strong in state welfare regimes and contingent to policy sectors in familialistic welfare regimes.     

The Effects of Participation and Resources on Democratic Attitudes: Role of Social Capital in Four Latin and South American Countries

ABSTRACT

Social capital research in Latin and South American countries has been gravely limited by the absence of valid measures of social capital. This study seeks to create a scale for measuring social capital in the Latin and South American context using exploratory and confirmatory statistical procedures. It also seeks to test the effect of social capital on democratic attitudes in Latin America through structural equation modeling methods. Analysis of four countries in Latin and South America suggests that social capital is positively related to democratic attitudes. Recommendations for future studies are highlighted, and scale properties and outcomes are discussed.     

Mothers at the Service of the New Poverty Agenda: Progresa/Oportunidades, Mexico's Conditional Transfer Programme

This article considers some of the changes and continuities in social protection in Latin America through a focus on the ways in which motherhood is positioned as key to the success of the new anti‐poverty programmes that have followed structural reform. It examines a flagship cash transfer programme known as Progresa/Oportunidades (Opportunities) established in Mexico in 1997 and now being widely adopted in the region. Characterized by some commentators as a quintessentially neo‐liberal programme, it is argued that Oportunidades represents a novel combination of earlier maternalist social policy approaches with the conditional, co‐responsibility models associated with the recent approaches to social welfare and poverty relief endorsed by international policy actors. In the first section, the gendered assumptions that have governed Latin American social policy are described; the second outlines social policy provision in Latin America and identifies the key elements of the new approaches to poverty; and the third critically examines the broader implications of the Mexican programme's selective and gendered construction of social need premised, as it is, on re‐traditionalizing gendered roles and responsibilities.     

The prospects for higher domestic savings rates in Latin America

This paper analyzes the prospects for raising domestic saving rates to permit increased investment and/or reduced dependence on foreign-capital inflow in Latin America. We analyze the question of rising saving rates by applying a random-coefficients approach: treating the parameters estimated in time-series analysis for individual countries as observations drawn from an international cross-section of savings behavior. Correlation analysis is then applied to clarify the conditions associated with international differences in savings parameters across a sample of 21 Latin American countries.     

Assessing Pension System Reforms in Latin America

During the 1980s and 1990s sweeping structural changes were made to social security systems in a number of Latin American countries. This paper aims to assess the impact of those reforms, showing their possible limitations, risks and internal malfunctions. The impact on the following will be considered: (a) coverage; (b) risks and uncertainty; (c) redistributive aspects; (d) savings; and (e) the administration and management costs of the new system.     

Occupational Risks in Latin America

Protection against employment accidents and occupational diseases, also known as occupational risks, has a long history in Latin America. There have been very few studies of this branch of social security, despite the fact that as a vehicle of social protection it is of the greatest importance for any society. In view of its implications in terms of improved worker protection and greater productivity in the economy, this form of insurance deserves greater attention. This article attempts to give an overview of the evolution of occupational risk insurance in Latin America, as well as its current problems and status. It discusses specific aspects of selected schemes, with concluding observations on the challenges now faced by such schemes in the region.     

The Role of Insurance in Social Protection in Latin America

Social protection schemes in Latin America face serious short falls in the financial resources available to meet their needs. New types of insurance envisaged in reforms should help to contain costs and increase coverage. However, in strengthening schemes' coverage it is highly probable that considerable demand for additional financial resources will arise to address the need to introduce the principle of solidarity into the system. This article examines reforms in the financing of social security for healthcare and pensions, highlighting the implications of various public-private combinations for financial management and coverage.     

Ethnicity, migration and health: A population-based study of 338 refugees from Latin America, 396 nonrefugee immigrants from Finland and 161 from southern Europe and 996 age-, sex- and education-matched controls from Sweden

This article shows the influence of being a refugee from Latin America or a nonrefugee immigrant from southern Europe or Finland on self-reported illness, controlling for social factors and lifestyle. The study population consisted of 338 Latin American refugees, a random sample of 396 Finnish and 161 southern European immigrants and 996 age-, sex- and education-matched Swedish controls. The data were analysed unmatched with logistic regression (multivariate analysis) in main effect models. The strongest independent risk indicator for long-term illness was being a Latin American refugee (estimated odds ratio (OR)=2.96, 95% confidence interval (CI)=2.19–3.82). There was a significant association between being a Latin American refugee and period prevalence, ill health and unsatisfied need for care. Being a southern European or Finnish immigrant was a risk indicator of ill health but was not associated with the other dependent factors. Not feeling secure in daily life was a strong risk indicator for long-term illness and ill health (estimated OR=1.89, 95% CI=1.26–2.76 and OR=3.04, 95% CI= 1.97–4.48) respectively). Being a Latin American refugee was equal in importance to traditional risk factors such as overweight and not taking regular exercise for long-term illness and ill health.     

Latin America's recovery from debt problems: An assessment of model-based projections

This paper examines economic assumptions used in assessing prospective economic adjustment of Latin America in response to its debt problems. The analysis compares forecasts obtained by combining parameter estimates from different researchers' trade models with the authors' macroeconomic models for Brazil. Chile, and Mexico. The influence of econometric procedure on simulation results is discussed. Then, by simulation analysis, the following issues are addressed: (1) likelihood of high domestic growth rates for Latin America in the late 1980s; (2) whether OECD growth or interest rates have a larger impact on developing-country economies; (3) effects of dollar depreciation and high interest rates on Latin America's debt problems.     

Poverty and Social Policy in Latin America

Most indicators of human development in Latin America improved considerably until the early 1980s. Unfortunately, the debt crisis which hit most countries in the region during the 1980s badly dented the social record. Not only did it increase the number of people living in poverty but it led to a profound change in the nature of the development model. Neo-liberal economic thought and the lessons of the debt crisis convinced one Latin American state after another that it should follow a different development path.
Economic stabilization and structural adjustment had a profound effect on poverty in the region. Most families became poorer, particularly those living in the cities. Structural adjustment and the new economic model also modified the role of the state. Increasingly, Latin American governments stopped giving general subsidies and introduced a strategy of targeting subsidies at the poor. In places, the new strategy will no doubt provide an adequate safety net, but in others it will fail to provide sufficient help for the poor. All we can predict is that poverty will long remain regrettably common in most parts of Latin America. In places, economic growth will undoutedly reduce poverty but it is not at all easy to predict where it will be reduced. In this respect Latin America is very much like the rest of the world. Globalization has opened up local economies to international competition and offered them the prospect of selling local goods to foreign markets. How many Latin American economies will benefit from the new situation will determine how the poor will fare. Unfortunately, the state's ability to deal with any subsequent poverty has been greatly reduced. That, too, is part and parcel of the process of globalization.     

Policy mandates and re-election among single issue parties

Recent studies point to dramatic ‘mandate switches’ by elected politicians, while others suggest higher levels of mandate loyalty. Yet, two of the oldest party systems in Latin America, Colombia and Venezuela, have not been extensively examined. Legislative activity across single issue parties is examined to determine whether they are able to stay focused and consistent with the party's policy goals. The analysis identifies the importance of stated policy goals, which are likely to provide long-term electoral benefits, and nomination procedures as important determinants of legislative action among single issue parties. The results shed a new light on parties in Latin America by suggesting that parties are capable of acting in accordance with their stated single-issue platforms.     

Introduction: social policy and economic development in late industrializers

This Supplement in the International Journal of Social Welfare presents the main findings of a United Nations Research Institute for Social Development research project on social policy in late industrializers, covering countries in East Asia, Latin America, Middle East and North Africa (MENA), and sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the Nordic countries. One of the findings from the research is that social policy has been used as an integral part of economic development in successful late-industrializing countries. In the MENA region and sub-Saharan Africa, however, social policy was tried for too short a period to be properly implemented and tested. East Asian and Latin American countries started with a narrow-based social policy, but social policy in East Asia was extended to foster social solidarity, bringing people into the mainstream of social change. Such findings suggest that social policy is multifunctional, not only in terms of social protection but also economic development and democratic governance.     

Roasting Donald Duck: Alternative Comics and Photonovels in Latin America

A corollary of dependency theory, which has enjoyed considerable popularity among social scientists in the last fifteen years, is the notion of cultural imperialism. Simply stated, the theory holds that countries with global economic dominance reinforce their hegemonic relationship with lesser developed countries through the manipulation of mass media such as television, radio, film and comic books. A number of radical critiques of Latin America mass media have appeared in response to this perceived relationship. In her article, Cornelia Butler Flora examines several Latin American comic books and photonovels which were created as alternatives to commercial controlled media forms. For example, in Chile during the short-lived presidency of Salvador Allende (1970–1973), the government publishing house Quimanto brought together artists and communications specialists to produce comic books which would serve as the socialist answer to Donald Duck andbther publications that were seen as purveyors of caplitalist values. Flora also draws on other examplles of comic books and photonovels from Mexico, Ecuador and Peru.     

Latin America: a new developmental welfare state model in the making?1

Latin America is emerging from a century of transformation – from a traditional agrarian to an urban industrial economy – where countries have taken diverse historical paths. Some have almost completed this transformation, others are taking early steps, and most are living through it. State‐led transition has followed two successive development strategies. From the 1920s to the 1980s, state developmentalism, for the most part, successfully assumed the twin challenges of economic and social progress. In the final decades of the century, Latin American states adopted the policies of the Washington consensus, which emphasized the importance of business in the framework of globalization, benefiting the affluent few. However, an unambiguous shift in direction has been taking place in Latin America since the 1997 economic crisis. This article suggests that a new developmental welfare state model is in the making. How will it evolve over the wider space of an increasingly integrated Latin America?     

Political risk and pension privatization: The case of Argentina (1994-2008)

Proponents of pension privatization in Latin America argued that systems of private fully pre-funded defined-contribution individual accounts would be better insulated from politics than was the case with public pay-as-you-go pension systems. However as the Argentinean case demonstrates, most recently with the 2008 nationalization of its private individual accounts system, transferring pension management and investment to the private sector does not necessarily reduce or eliminate political risk. In fact, the implementation of systems of individual accounts creates a new set of political risks, in part because they are a potential financial resource for governments, especially during times of economic stress. This article describes the range of political risks inherent to individual account pension systems, with specific reference to Argentina's 1994-2008 experience with privatization.     

The Writing on the Walls: Graffiti as Government Propaganda in Mexico

As pointed out in another article (Flora) contained in this volume, Latin American governments use mass media and popular culture forms to inform the masses and to provide messages which serve as alternatives to those communicated by the “controlled” media. While print and electronic means are effective in reaching large segments of Latin America's urban and rural populations, walls, both public and private, have been utilized as well. As Kenneth Crrieb points out in his article, painting announcements on walls is a common practice in these societies as well as in other nan- Western countries such as the People's Republic of China. Grieb focuses on the phenomenon in Mexico City during the latter protion of Luis Echeverria's presidenc (mid-1970s) when, under his orders, painters decorated walls all over the city with messages proclaiming both political slogans and popular wisdom. Perhaps inspired by his visit to China, Echeverria saw the potential of wall announcements to mobilize the populace to a greater awareness of their social responsibility as Mexican citizens. Grieb lists and comments on several categories of wall announcements which he sees as a mirror of the thoughts of the political leadership as well as an indication of the values it sought to promote.     

Structural reform of social security pensions in Latin America: Models, characteristics, results and conclusions

The structural reform of social security pensions is the subject of international debate, and Latin America has been a pioneer of such reform. The region has gathered experience over two decades, and had an important influence on other regions. This article gathers legal and statistical data about reform in ten countries of Latin America, in order (1) to analyse the three distinct general models followed and note the characteristics of the reforms in the different countries; (2) to evaluate the performance of the reforms against nine conventional assumptions about its effects; (3) to draw useful lessons from these reforms for the region and other countries.     

Can Latin America carry its international debt? A prospective analysis using the Wharton Latin American debt simulation model

The international debt of the LDCs has become a critical concern, perhaps currently the most critical one, from the perspective of debtor countries and creditors alike. Through the efforts of the IMF, the BIS, the central banks, and the large commercial banks, a crash may have averted for the time being, but the heavy burden of the debt remains, particularly in Latin America, where it is increasingly concentrated. Draconian remedial measures now threaten social and economic development throughout the continent.This article evaluates the perspective for Latin American debts and payments using a debt simulation model. Debt restructuring with the usual “IMF conditions” will impose serious economic shocks in Latin America. But even so, debt service ratios will remain high except under optimistic assumptions about growth in the industrial countries and about commodity prices. Only in case of a solid economic recovery in the United States, Europe and Japan can one be sanguine about Latin America's ability to work its way out from under the debt burden.     

Alejandro Galindo: Pioneer Mexican Cineast

Mexican cinema, one of the most active in Latin America, dates from 1896, while sound film recently celebrated its fiftieth anniversary there. Among the many prominent Mexican cineasts whose films form a repertoire of solid artistic achievement is Alejandro Galindo. Like many fellow-filmmakers, directors and actors, Galindo did his aoprenticeship in Hollywood, returning to Mexico in 1930 to become one of Mexico's most creative and dynamic practitioners of cinematic art. Carl Mora highlights his accomplishments while placing him in the perspective of the development of the Mexican film industry. For example, during World War II the industry boomed because of the demand in Latin America for authentic Latin American cinema. With this impetus, Mexico (and Alejandro Galindo) enjoyed a decade of growth and popularity. Unlike most other Mexican cineasts, Galindo dealt with the dislocations that a rapidly changing economy and increased urbanization brought to both the workers and the middle class. Mora discusses several of his most important films, amply demonstrating the impact Galindo believed that cinema could have on society. He left a legacy that is admired today by critics and filmmakers.